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Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

1104105107109110328

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,293 ✭✭✭billybonkers




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    mloc123 wrote: »
    Zero :)

    Does that not render the notion of a lockdown pretty redundant?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    Seamai wrote: »
    Does that not render the notion of a lockdown pretty redundant?

    Why ? it is relaying on people to do the right thing themselves .Just as the national lockdown was .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,049 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    UK Antibodies test results from the first 100,000 in case anyone hasn't seen it.

    Screenshot-20200816-104201.jpg

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-programme-for-covid-19-publishes-findings


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    mloc123 wrote: »
    Hospital admission would back this up, can't recall the exact dates but we had days in April where over 100 people a day were being admitted to hospital.

    I lied. Further explication for those who like T cell theory. Say 20 % have T cells. Then 1,000,000 Irish would have had it. 40 times what is recorded now. So mid April real case numbers would have been 40000! If you hang your hat on T cells.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,476 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Yep been posted multiple times.
    That Berlin place on Dame Street is a kip and it has form for opening late, not limiting numbers etc


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Why ? it is relaying on people to do the right thing themselves .Just as the national lockdown was .

    So lockdown is just a suggestion and hope for the best? Good luck with that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    A different way of looking at my theory -

    Seroprevalence preliminary results in July suggest 5% have had it. It is repeated globally minus hotspots.

    (Leave the unproven T cell thing for a minute. Antibodies would at least linger for a few months).

    5% of 5 million is 250,000.
    One of our highest ever case totals reported was mid April at about 1000. 1013 on 14th April.
    We have 27000 cases reported.
    Multiply the daily cases reports by 9 to get "true" figures to reflect researched seroprevalence. 27000 x 9 = 234000.
    14th April should have read 9000 cases that day.
    Etc etc.

    Which if we are still doing as badly catching cases would mean yesterday = 1800. But I do not think testing in April is comparable to testing in August.

    Don't worry. I am done now explicating my fabulous theory! :) Damn, it's such a good theory though!

    Many don't make antibodies and especially not months after infection

    July testing catching April mild infections is very doubtful from what i've read

    Experts are saying 2-3 times antibody seroprevalence seems to be somewhat accurate

    About 500,000 - 750,000 probably had it here

    Also supports the 0.5% IFR

    We've had nearly 1800 deaths

    That would suggest 360,000 infected a minimum

    Tests in Africa are showing IFR 0.08%, it's an extremely mild ilness there


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    I lied. Further explication for those who like T cell theory. Say 20 % have T cells. Then 1,000,000 Irish would have had it. 40 times what is recorded now. So mid April real case numbers would have been 40000! If you hang your hat on T cells.

    Yes that would be more far accurate imo

    The O'Brien meat plant had 3 people sick out of 86 infected

    It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

    Trump suggested that in April and was ridiculed for it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    UK Antibodies test results from the first 100,000 in case anyone hasn't seen it.

    Screenshot-20200816-104201.jpg

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-programme-for-covid-19-publishes-findings

    When are they gonna put this to an end and do the t spot test?

    Drib feeding us info after info

    Oxford have it in use for research purposes

    Do the bloody trial and give us the truth


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭ExMachina1000


    #supportnotsympathy in rural Ireland as pubs beg to be let open and manage customers responsibly and within government guidelines.
    Multi generational pubs financially struggling

    Meanwhile in Berlin bar Dublin

    https://twitter.com/antoon619/status/1294704669722370049?s=20


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭MickeyLeari


    #supportnotsympathy in rural Ireland as pubs beg to be let open and manage customers responsibly and within government guidelines.
    Multi generational pubs financially struggling

    Meanwhile in Berlin bar Dublin

    https://twitter.com/antoon619/status/1294704669722370049?s=20

    They just need to close down that pub and any others who take the p1ss.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    And if you think that's bad, wait until colleges return. The "guidelines" are for students to not enter someone else's accomodation.

    Yeah, best of luck with that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭MickeyLeari


    And if you think that's bad, wait until colleges return. The "guidelines" are for students to not enter someone else's accomodation.

    Yeah, best of luck with that.

    They are recruiting the ladies (Bean an tí) from the Gaeltacht Irish course to enforce it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,505 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    A different way of looking at my theory -

    Seroprevalence preliminary results in July suggest 5% have had it. It is repeated globally minus hotspots.

    (Leave the unproven T cell thing for a minute. Antibodies would at least linger for a few months).

    5% of 5 million is 250,000.
    One of our highest ever case totals reported was mid April at about 1000. 1013 on 14th April.
    We have 27000 cases reported.
    Multiply the daily cases reports by 9 to get "true" figures to reflect researched seroprevalence. 27000 x 9 = 234000.
    14th April should have read 9000 cases that day.
    Etc etc.

    Which if we are still doing as badly catching cases would mean yesterday = 1800. But I do not think testing in April is comparable to testing in August.

    Don't worry. I am done now explicating my fabulous theory! :) Damn, it's such a good theory though!


    27,000 is too high.

    8,000+ of those are health care workers, the vast majority of which were infected in work, I also imagine they went on to infect family members.

    You would then have to further adjust the figure to capture mass outbreaks in enclosed areas.

    Probably a more accurate measure would be community transmission, roughly 9000.

    9000 x 9 = 81,000 +70,000 (to be generous).

    150,000 odd infections.

    My personal opinion, we escaped with a very "mild" first instance of the pandemic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    fritzelly wrote: »
    I don't get it - he has been travelling more in the past month than LV did over the past 6 months

    Some optics there for a useless Taoiseach

    I was really disappointed with that elbow touching (2m my hole), not a mask insight. WTF is he trying to be Trump or something. Get with the program FS.

    I know that he prob. can't get it off Boris, but modeling behavour is important. They made the bord failte guy resign.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,452 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

    That was always known. The concern was and still is the problems caused by the minority of the population all getting sick at once.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,251 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    New study regarding the transmission from children to other members of household.
    It finds that the likelihood of transmission from a child to another household member is 1 in 200, or 0.5%.
    https://adc.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/06/archdischild-2020-319910

    “ Conclusion The SAR from children to household members was low in the setting of social distancing

    This is a very important part of this study. If the child is identified as having Covid early and isolated from the rest of the family then the SAR transmission is low. This is not how the typical family will be handling a young child getting diagnosed with Covid or being a close contact of a confirmed case.

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    Boggles wrote: »
    27,000 is too high.

    8,000+ of those are health care workers, the vast majority of which were infected in work, I also imagine they went on to infect family members.

    You would then have to further adjust the figure to capture mass outbreaks in enclosed areas.

    Probably a more accurate measure would be community transmission, roughly 9000.

    9000 x 9 = 81,000 +70,000 (to be generous).

    150,000 odd infections.

    My personal opinion, we escaped with a very "mild" first instance of the pandemic.

    The reality is nobody has any idea to what degree the current cases under report the scale of infection.

    But three things suggest it is much lower:

    1) Strain on resources during peak
    2) Much lower testing during peak
    3) Strict criteria for testing (priority for healthcare workers, nursing homes, have to display two symptoms when a huge quantity of infections are asymptomatic)

    We're only speculation on numbers after that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Sums up the way people use data here.
    I'm always wary of people who draw conclusions with incomplete data.
    All people tend to join the dots to suit their world view.
    This particular problem will take some time before dots can be joined in a concrete way.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1294839150177390592?s=20


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Loads of people don't care and its a big issue

    Neighbour of mine who works in a pharma as an operator has his daughter home from the states, she flew into the North and rented a car. No isolating at all. Funny thing is he lives next to a nurse who socialises with them.

    My take is,she could have infected the father, his partner and the nurse who could have brought it into the hospital, the father and his partner in the pharma company taking down the whole line and in turn affecting all their fellow employees salary and immediate family.

    Some people are sickeningly selfish and this pandemic has exposed it all in my opinion


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    Akrasia wrote: »
    “ Conclusion The SAR from children to household members was low in the setting of social distancing

    This is a very important part of this study. If the child is identified as having Covid early and isolated from the rest of the family then the SAR transmission is low. This is not how the typical family will be handling a young child getting diagnosed with Covid or being a close contact of a confirmed case.

    I know a kid and mother both caught covid.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot




    Some interesting snippets.

    CDC and major tv outlets numbers appear to differ slightly. CDC numbers appear to be consistently lower. (Anything to do with WH taking over recording of info?).

    Concerns from USA teachers that poor ventilation will make schools more dangerous for spread. Many teachers would prefer a phased reopening.

    Croatia - brilliant record of a bunch of cases that suggests 2/3rd of cases from pubs/nightclubs that opened until after midnight (basically sloppy drunks more likely to catch and spread it), so bars closed at midnight now.

    Spain - smoking banned a lot more places as possible that virus hangs in smoke in air. Banned drinking in street. Ordered nightlife bars to shut

    European figures appear to show second wave (or surge in numbers) with consistant rises for number of days. Average age of people infected appears to be circa 30 (I’m averaging out multiple data used).

    Better news as we are seeing is less severe cases across the board.

    Deaths in uk only recording as Covid it happens within 28 days of test. France, Malta and Netherlands added to quarantine listed countries so massive rush for uk people on holidays to get home. This should be another warning to anybody planning to go abroad anytime soon.

    Dr john makes a good point, people rushing back to beat the quarantine rule could cause more issues If infected. He asks what’s the point in doing this if a person who gets back at 2pm was in the same place as a person who gets Back at 5pm the same day but missed the quarantine deadline. Says it’s similar to what happened early on in wuhan when people quickly fled as restrictions were imposed. This explains why governments give so little notice , to stop people rushing around to avoid restrictions.

    England - 6.2% tested positive for antibodies (office of national statistics)

    Africa - why such low numbers? From min 39 of video. He discussed it other day but got feedback from people who watch videos. Neanderthal gene, exposure to bugs/animals, gastro worms, high plant diet (prebiotics, microbiome), bad diet, various common taken drugs, obesity and physical fitness

    Debunks myths that temperature taking machines emit radiation

    All information he discusses have links to the sources

    I Always find it fascinating to see what other countries are doing and why. Also surely it’s in our interest to understand why some African countries are so far getting quite Low numbers. This fascination with a vaccine seems to mean as we missing other avenues to reduce the impact of the virus that could lead to a quicker return to normalcy.

    I watched another video on medcram about cheap one dollar tests that would be a much quicker way to manage things right now. But most resources are focused on vaccines.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,019 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Yes that would be more far accurate imo

    The O'Brien meat plant had 3 people sick out of 86 infected

    It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

    Trump suggested that in April and was ridiculed for it

    I suggest the 160,000 plus people who have died in the US would disagree with President Trump


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    JJJackal wrote: »
    I suggest the 160,000 plus people who have died in the US would disagree with President Trump

    You can ad another 12,000+ to that figure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,505 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Yes that would be more far accurate imo

    The O'Brien meat plant had 3 people sick out of 86 infected

    It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

    Trump suggested that in April and was ridiculed for it

    The O'Brien meat plant "story" was written by a PR company and handed to a friendly journalist.

    I wouldn't believe a word of it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,300 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,049 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Drumpot wrote: »
    [
    Spain - smoking banned a lot more places as possible that virus hangs in smoke in air. Banned drinking in street. Ordered nightlife bars to shut

    Not agreeing with this as all, you've way less chance of catching covid from a smoker than a non smoker as they have way less chance of catching it in the first place. Agree if there is smoke in the air and someone adds some covid to it and you walk into it you may get some droplets but your getting them everywhere especially your eyes, compulsory goggles aren't far away.
    As for people having to drink indoors instead of outdoors, it makes no sense. We should have opened pubs with outdoor areas not ones with €9 pizza.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit



    Tipsy and covid is not a great combination. I am sure there are enough who will fight for their right to get drunk in bars :pac:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,085 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    I'd say that "barman" will struggle for employment unless theres a new Coyote Ugly movie in the works.


This discussion has been closed.
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