Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Turtwig · 14-08-2020 03:28PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I find the lack of hospitalisations fascinating tbh, there’s definitely something else other than age at play

I don't. The testing criteria was much more limited at the start. There was less disease awareness. We're testing much more now, finding more mild and symptomless cases in the first links of the transmission chain. Rather than finding cases only when they become more serious and very likely a result of sustained chains of transmission with possibly exposure to higher infective doses.

This could be lead time bias too. There does appear to be a six to eight week lag between a rise in cases and the rises in hospitalisation. That seems to be numeric behaviour of the virus almost everywhere when cases are consistently rising.

What Username Guidelines · 14-08-2020 03:28PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I find the lack of hospitalisations fascinating tbh, there’s definitely something else other than age at play

Yep, also fascinating. I've seen lots talk on twitter about it being 'over' but the rest of their timelines are conspiracy theories/brexit/racism. Though a few are questioning it that seem to be genuinely baffled and looking for answers as opposed to agenda-driven.

I wonder could it be two things:

1. The removal of 'super vectors' (like super spreaders). Basically you have a pool of potentials. In feb, it was at it's biggest, but we don't know how big the pool was/is. Nursing homes, nurses moving from home to home, doctors/nurses/healthcare workers in hospitals, lots and lots infected and spreading it. They mostly recover, or sadly succumb, and the pool has been reduced. Like the pool, we also don't know the true size of the reduction, but if the pool is 100 ppl and 25 are removed, it's not a matter of disease spread reducing by 25%, because the first to be removed are the more likely to get it, if that makes sense? So the spread reduces >25% Hence it could in fact be slowing down or no longer spreading as efficiently.

2. Testing - At the height of it, you had to have multiple specific symptoms and we missed lots of cases. Now we know more, like lots of asymptomatics, etc, there is no reason the same level of asymptomatics weren't around at the peak, plus more. Even now you could consider our testing limited - you either need symptoms to know you even need a test, or work in certain healthcare sectors at specific times (nursing home, 3 weeks ago) or work in a meat plant. Obviously we can't test everyone, but now we know there are far more cases out there because of the targeted testing. So this somewhat proves a much larger portion of susceptibles were removed from our pool in point 1 during March/April/May.

If our hospitalisation rate of known cases was about 13%(?) and now dropping heavily, it may prove the actual hospitalisation rate from All cases as opposed to known cases is far lower, and what we're seeing now is a more accurate %, but still not the real %.

Drumpot · 14-08-2020 03:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I find the lack of hospitalisations fascinating tbh, there’s definitely something else other than age at play

seanb85 wrote: »

I think it's down to how many cases we were missing during the worst period, back then it was about 10 to 15% of confirmed cases that ended up in hospital. But its likely there were about 10 times the confirmed number. We are probably still missing some cases but nowhere near what it was a few months ago.

There’s also a couple of other theories to consider:

- hospitals better equipped to deal and care for patients (not default to ventilator, we now more now)

- patients showing up earlier then back in March as more people are aware of symptoms and there was a bit of a negative “unclean” sense around being found to have COVID, peopel might of been reluctant to get help sooner.

- older population and more vulnerable are more cautious therefore less of them getting bad doses

- more cautious behaviors and mask wearing is leading to people getting less viral load when infected. Less viral load can mean by the time the virus is really taking hold in your body , it actually has built up some resistance (or something on these lines) which means you can get a less severe dose

- virus has mutated to be less lethal

I’ve said it before, but it’s disappointing that there are so many myths surrounding the virus that can be cleared up. Whether it’s recording of data or whatever , there is no political will among countries to do proper research to clear up things. There has to be enough data in 6 months of the virus to be more comprehensive on what works and what doesn’t work (Like schools for eg) yet it still Feels like we are fumbling around on some things. I don’t expect all the answers but it feels like there is data that can help everybody manage this better but nobody wants to correlate it and draw reasonably definitive conclusions.

MD1990 · 14-08-2020 03:33PM

we may have the cure.

https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1294280289397559298

Renjit · 14-08-2020 03:51PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure how getting a free, less than 30 second test = hysteria

We have expert resident doctors in this thread who know their body well and quote a pre print paper to justify smoking to avoid covid

Renjit · 14-08-2020 03:56PM

MD1990 wrote: »

we may have the cure.

https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1294280289397559298

Is it peer reviewed? This is dated May 2020.

Update: Strong objection to the believed treatment has been extended to The Source for Dr. Kovalchuk’s report.

podgeandrodge · 14-08-2020 03:58PM

What restrictions are there for restaurants right now does anyone know, in terms of max numbers - I looked at Failte Ireland guidelines but it is a bit vague. Can 5 families from 'same family' all book a restaurant for a seating together?

schmoo2k · 14-08-2020 03:59PM

MD1990 wrote: »

we may have the cure.

https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1294280289397559298

That may come with some significant side effects!

Boggles · 14-08-2020 04:00PM

Hospitalization rate overall is 12.6%

The rate on roughly the 800 cases over the past 14 days has been 3.2%.

If anything considering we are probably only missing 1 case for every one we find and the age demographic of cases, the hospitalization rate is actually quite high.

If we were only finding 1 in 8 cases back in March / April. Scaled up that would give us a rate of 25%.

An over abundance of caution given the capacity is there would explain probably explain that given the shortness of the current hospital stays.

smurfjed · 14-08-2020 04:02PM

For an adult maybe. If I had to get my three year old tested, we would need two additional adults to hold his arms down and the other to grip his head still. They'd probably have to fit some kind of dental frame to keep his mouth open.

Have you done this test yourself ? At this stage i have done it 22 times (all negative), nasal or throat and nasal&throat, at least for me, its painless and takes less than 2 seconds.

Boggles · 14-08-2020 04:03PM

138 positive swabs.

11,337 test.

ACitizenErased · 14-08-2020 04:03PM

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 11,337
Tests conducted last 7 days: 41,139
Additional positive tests: 138
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.4%

Benimar · 14-08-2020 04:03PM

138 positive swabs.

ACitizenErased · 14-08-2020 04:05PM

Latest testing data
< 15,000 referrals last 72hrs and nearly 35,000 swabs taken. There's some targetted testing happening, I just don't know where.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-14-august-2020.pdf

ACitizenErased · 14-08-2020 04:10PM

A county many people don't seem to talk about is Carlow.
It now has the highest 14 day incidence outside of the 3 counties in lockdown.
Latest GP referral data shows a marked increase in referrals per GP, in Carlow alone.
https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2020-08-13_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

CIARAN_BOYLE · 14-08-2020 04:11PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

That's shocking, any idea when you might get the result? That's another delay potentially

seefin wrote: »

Now that's worrying. Told along the only real way to live with the virus is decent testing and tracing.

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Something is not right there. A friend contacted his GP on Tuesday morning, after being a close contact of a case, and had the test Wednesday, with results the next day.

In fairness to the health service I'm a non driver so that made the process more complicated as they had to send the national ambulance service out to me.

I offered to walk to my nearest test centre but they refused.

drunkmonkey · 14-08-2020 04:11PM

It's either loads of people paniking with seasonal allergies or masking has been a complete disaster, cases accelerating with the lack of the basics been followed.

virginmediapls · 14-08-2020 04:12PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's either loads of people paniking with seasonal allergies or masking has been a complete disaster, cases accelerating with the lack of the basics been followed.

Yes, it would be a disaster if people weren't wearing masks.

Looney1 · 14-08-2020 04:13PM

Hope I'm wrong but from what I'm hearing on the ground we could be in trouble here in limerick

giveitholly · 14-08-2020 04:13PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's either loads of people paniking with seasonal allergies or masking has been a complete disaster, cases accelerating with the lack of the basics been followed.

The few places I have been in,most people wearing masks but no one sanitizing their hands on entry/exit. Plus a lot of masks look black from the dirt!!!!

fritzelly · 14-08-2020 04:14PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Hope I'm wrong but from what I'm hearing on the ground we could be in trouble here in limerick

WhatsApp?

ACitizenErased · 14-08-2020 04:14PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Hope I'm wrong but from what I'm hearing on the ground we could be in trouble here in limerick

What have you heard?

Deeper Blue · 14-08-2020 04:16PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Hope I'm wrong but from what I'm hearing on the ground we could be in trouble here in limerick

By "on the ground" I assume you mean a WhatsApp group?

giveitholly · 14-08-2020 04:18PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Hope I'm wrong but from what I'm hearing on the ground we could be in trouble here in limerick

I heard the same from a guard yesterday but was hoping it's only a rumour and nothing more

Non solum non ambulabit · 14-08-2020 04:18PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 11,337
Tests conducted last 7 days: 41,139
Additional positive tests: 138
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.4%

Feck. Pity. Was hoping for 50/60 range

MD1990 · 14-08-2020 04:18PM

Renjit wrote: »

Is it peer reviewed? This is dated May 2020.

Dunno.
But I just went & got 100g of weed

Away With The Fairies · 14-08-2020 04:19PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Hope I'm wrong but from what I'm hearing on the ground we could be in trouble here in limerick

What's up in Limerick?

ACitizenErased · 14-08-2020 04:19PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Feck

Dare I post a positive comment? No increase in positivity rate even with over 11000 tests.

giveitholly · 14-08-2020 04:21PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Dare I post a positive comment? No increase in positivity rate even with over 11000 tests.

You will be lynched for posting a positive comment!!

JDD · 14-08-2020 04:21PM

smurfjed wrote: »

Have you done this test yourself ? At this stage i have done it 22 times (all negative), nasal or throat and nasal&throat, at least for me, its painless and takes less than 2 seconds.

That's very comforting smurfjed - if it was over quickly like a vaccination jab I'd have much less of an issue.

A county many people don't seem to talk about is Carlow.
It now has the highest 14 day incidence outside of the 3 counties in lockdown.
Latest GP referral data shows a marked increase in referrals per GP, in Carlow alone.
https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2020-...ey_Results.pdf

There's a good few meat factories in/near Carlow town.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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