Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

gabeeg wrote: »

They were asymptomatic at the time, but that was well within the typical incubation period.

So, no. Not really

So we don't really know, is anyone tracking it to see what percentage go on to be symptomatic. A 28 day later call would be useful to see how positive test results got on.

Micky 32 wrote: »

Where have i said said we have a vaccine yet? It’s not approved yet. The Vaccines work, they have been proved to work that ship has sailed. They activate the immune response the way they had hoped. It’s in final testing for side affects hence phase iii.

I never mentioned anything about the flu vaccine so why are you posting a link to flu vaccines. This is a different virus altogether that has different strains.

What would you compare this new vaccine to, how about we compare it to the previous SARS vaccine? Give me something you'll accept we can compare it with. I'm not buying it will provide immunity.

The_Brood wrote: »

This is exactly, exactly my biggest fear happening here as well: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/europe/russia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

We cannot be sheep and play the political games of America and Europe. Ireland needs the vaccine, whether it comes from Russia or not. I'm completely in favor of shutting down the country in mass-scale protests if there is any delay to getting the Russian vaccine. The government refuses to help those of us that are really struggling, it owes us at least not to stand in the way of a vaccine.

Political football in play there (tho the report doesn't actually quote any US official confirming the offer and subsequent refusal) - apart from that the Russian vaccine has not been properly trialled so any country accepting it right now would be fools

The_Brood wrote: »

This is exactly, exactly my biggest fear happening here as well: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/europe/russia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

We cannot be sheep and play the political games of America and Europe. Ireland needs the vaccine, whether it comes from Russia or not. I'm completely in favor of shutting down the country in mass-scale protests if there is any delay to getting the Russian vaccine. The government refuses to help those of us that are really struggling, it owes us at least not to stand in the way of a vaccine.

You'll want it made mandatory I presume.

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That poster has certainly not clarified

You read into it as closing hairdressers or gyms

Thats effectively Phase Two Plus

Here's a reminder of what that would entail

https://www.thejournal.ie/phase-two-restrictions-whats-allowed-today-5116215-Jun2020/

That poster has also not clarified on what basis we should be stepping back

Apparently it's the rise in cases

I fail to see why the entire country requires a step back or two when there is absolutely no need

Many counties are doing very well in terms of cases

Here's a good breakdown of cases

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1293967199959494656/photo/1

I don't think we need to do a general step back ...yet .
Its sick people needing hospitalization , because that is when alarm bells start going off for me .
They seem to have the testing and tracing down well for clusters. And regional or local lockdowna are the way to go , in theory .
However its the randomers who won't report symptoms and still are out and about that will fxxx it up for everyone , because there is no knowing where they will pop up or who they will infect along the way .
And that is what we are seeing with small numbers of cases here and there .
That is uncontrolled spread and potentially more serious than the clusters.
That is why I understood that poster being freaked by cases in so many counties.
And I don't see why it is not obvious to anyone else on this thread who has been watching this unfold .

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

None of that in Ireland, of course,

or the UK,

or Italy,

or Spain...

Yes all fat over here too 😉

What's with people losing their **** over every one of ACE's posts?

He's a valuable contributor to the thread and gets nothing but grief.

To those throwing their toys out of the pram over a comment about an outlier I say this: get off the laptop and go for a pint.

Have a nice weekend everyone

drunkmonkey wrote: »

@ACitizenErased, what's your take on this from Ivor Cummins..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU3OibcindQ

It is far too early to say that mortality will not again rise with the increasing number of infections being detected daily across Europe.

There has been an undeniable increase over the last 5 weeks in daily case numbers across Western Europe.
Testing capacity has not increased hugely over this time, and the percentage of positive tests has been increasing, topping 7% in Spain a few days ago.
This shows that the number of infections is increasing, and that we are not, as implied, just detecting more old cases due to a recent increase in testing.

The video shows histograms of case numbers peaking in March-April, then falling, and now rising again. It implies that 100 cases detected per day in March is the same as 100 cases today. But in March testing was barely available and most mild cases were excluded from testing under the criteria then in use. So while numbers are rising now, the true number of infections is still far lower than at the March-April peak.

The video says that we need not only to consider numbers of cases, but also deaths, ICU admissions and hospital admissions. I agree.
Looking at Spain, where the outbreak is biggest, covid-19 hospital admissions have increased from 100 per week in June to almost a thousand per week today.

There is still much uncertainty about levels of infection required for herd immunity, the proportion of vulnerable people who lost their lives in the first wave, and the frequency of long-term complications.
We will have to wait for more data to resolve these questions.

What I think cannot be doubted is that we don't have enough data on who is infected.
That is because our testing model is wrong.

We are relying on a hypersensitive clinically-appropriate PCR test that takes time to report and for which we only have lab capacity for a few thousand a day.
This is not an appropriate screening tool for outbreak monitoring or prevention.

We need cheap, self-administered rapid tests that can be taken regularly so that we can reliably detect when someone is infectious. We could have got them into use months ago, and we'd be in a much better place for reopening safely if we had.
See https://www.rapidtests.org/ for an overview.

darjeeling wrote: »

It is far too early to say that mortality will not again rise with the increasing number of infections being detected daily across Europe.

There has been an undeniable increase over the last 5 weeks in daily case numbers across Western Europe.
Testing capacity has not increased hugely over this time, and the percentage of positive tests has been increasing, topping 7% in Spain a few days ago.
This shows that the number of infections is increasing, and that we are not, as implied, just detecting more old cases due to a recent increase in testing.

The video shows histograms of case numbers peaking in March-April, then falling, and now rising again. It implies that 100 cases detected per day in March is the same as 100 cases today. But in March testing was barely available and most mild cases were excluded from testing under the criteria then in use. So while numbers are rising now, the true number of infections is still far lower than at the March-April peak.

The video says that we need not only to consider numbers of cases, but also deaths, ICU admissions and hospital admissions. I agree.
Looking at Spain, where the outbreak is biggest, covid-19 hospital admissions have increased from 100 per week in June to almost a thousand per week today.

There is still much uncertainty about levels of infection required for herd immunity, the proportion of vulnerable people who lost their lives in the first wave, and the frequency of long-term complications.
We will have to wait for more data to resolve these questions.

What I think cannot be doubted is that we don't have enough data on who is infected.
That is because our testing model is wrong.

We are relying on a hypersensitive clinically-appropriate PCR test that takes time to report and for which we only have lab capacity for a few thousand a day.
This is not an appropriate screening tool for outbreak monitoring or prevention.

We need cheap, self-administered rapid tests that can be taken regularly so that we can reliably detect when someone is infectious. We could have got them into use them months ago, and we'd be in a much better place for reopening safely if we had.
See https://www.rapidtests.org/ for an overview.

I agree with everything you said except as regards testing .
Self testing is inaccurate and will lead to false negatives .

Goldengirl wrote: »

I agree with everything you said except as regards testing .
Self testing is inaccurate and will lead to false negatives .

We do trust it to work for pregnancies, and the test would have to be as simple and reliable.
But right now our alternative to self-testing is not testing.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's very cheap though, we could test ourselves a few times over a few days, it's an alternative to a vaccine and can happen now.

TBH if people cannot wear masks or put in a tampon properly can you really expect them to do a home test properly

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Your right, great idea, won't work.

Hopefully they get a working spit test soon

darjeeling wrote: »

We do trust it to work for pregnancies, and the test would have to be as simple and reliable.
But right now our alternative to self-testing is not testing.

Not what I have heard .
Anybody that wants a test has only to ask their GP..

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How much did you see them on Sunday and how close were you for how long.

Probably about an hour. In my house, distancing to an extent but not perfectly. We'll see what happens. Definitely a wake up call anyway for how easy it can happen.

Luckily my own "close contacts" have been very low this week and I've been wearing a mask, sanitising hands etc as standard anyway so hopefully if I have caught it I haven't passed it on. Of course I may not have been exposed at all but I'll just play it extra safe for the time being until the testing is done.