Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

drunkmonkey · 13-08-2020 06:39PM

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

In the exact same way as every other country in the world? Why are the curves all so similar regardless of measures?

That's what a hotel manager in Clare told me last night, halting site in Ennis.

GooglePlus · 13-08-2020 06:40PM

Looks like it's back out there. We all know that what we're seeing in the figures isn't even half the picture but it does provide good trend analysis, which shows CT increasing.

We're looking at big countrywide increases in the very near future.

Ohmeha · 13-08-2020 06:41PM

gmisk wrote: »

Nope he is right.
80 on 11th august
78.3 on 12th
76.4 on 13th

But it was shooting up before that.

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

spookwoman · 13-08-2020 06:43PM

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

lee_baby_simms · 13-08-2020 06:43PM

froog wrote: »

high risk groups are being super careful. younger people are not. this is why we have rising cases and less rises in hospitals. and the higher the cases get, the greater the risk for the high risk groups. so we need to protect them, and not cater to people annoyed at not being able to have a pint or go to a match.

All across the world? From Belarus to Brazil?

This pandemic is over. It’s governments that are keeping it going with hyper testing resulting in meaningless cases that are followed by virtually no hospitalisations or deaths.

It’s madness.

drunkmonkey · 13-08-2020 06:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Do you want to link to this evidence or just trust some "expert"? COVID-19 really is to medical experts what 2009 was to economists, lots of noise. Who is this guy anyway? Not sure what it is you're trying to say, the remaining pubs have been pushed out three more weeks, not indefinitely.

There is no evidence that's his point, just one knee jerk reaction after the other.
I'm trying to say our Government is making it up as they go and cherry picking what they present as facts.
There is no evidence to support keeping pubs closed or mandatory mask. No evidence anywhere in the world.
The Denmark study will be interesting as it's the first of it's kind outside a labatory.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 06:45PM

spookwoman wrote: »

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

Who said 92 is good? 92 without context is awful. Also you should really quote me when clearly responding to my posts.

is_that_so · 13-08-2020 06:45PM

spookwoman wrote: »

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

He also said we've tested lots of people in a particular location and we're seeing a high number of cases so not hard to "do the maths". That they believe they have under control.

KrustyUCC · 13-08-2020 06:46PM

froog wrote: »

the rising cases.

So you want the entire country to go back to phase one because of an increase largely in LOK and Dublin?

Just for a reminder this is what phase one entailed

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/ad5dd0-easing-the-covid-19-restrictions-on-may-18-phase-1/

Even phase two would be a large step backwards

Jim_Hodge · 13-08-2020 06:46PM

gmisk wrote: »

It's a rolling 7 day average I would say....it doesn't matter if it's 92 today and 69 last Thursday it's a rolling average.

Correct. But the rolling average has gone up because the day value for dropping off is lower than today's.

froog · 13-08-2020 06:47PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

gmisk · 13-08-2020 06:47PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

Thanks for that great to have some accurate facts posted

gmisk · 13-08-2020 06:49PM

froog wrote: »

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

Alright trump lol

is_that_so · 13-08-2020 06:50PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There is no evidence that's his point, just one knee jerk reaction after the other.
I'm trying to say our Government is making it up as they go and cherry picking what they present as facts.
There is no evidence to support keeping pubs closed or mandatory mask. No evidence anywhere in the world.
The Denmark study will be interesting as it's the first of it's kind outside a labatory.

I am curious who he is. If he's that crackpot Swede who said we'd have lots more cases I'd be reaching for the salt. As for pubs remember the Tyrol resort and the skiing in February, with the packed bars, the Korean nightclubs and how many cases came out of them? That too is evidence.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 06:50PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

Worth pointing out that the 7 day average is being heavily skewed by the 174 cases on one day in the last week. It will likely drop quite dramatically over the next 2 days as long as we report less than 80 on those days. 5 day average sits at 58.

Jim_Hodge · 13-08-2020 06:51PM

froog wrote: »

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

You're confusing 'going' for 'went'.

gmisk · 13-08-2020 06:53PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Worth pointing out that the 7 day average is being heavily skewed by the 174 cases on one day in the last week. It will likely drop quite dramatically over the next 2 days as long as we report less than 80 on those days. 5 day average sits at 58.

So your now admitting our 7 day average isn't dropping?
You can't just take cases out of it to suit your agenda though come on

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 06:54PM

gmisk wrote: »

So your now admitting our 7 day average isn't dropping?
You can't just take cases out of it to suit your agenda though come on

It's a statistical anomaly known as an outlier. You learn that when you study statistics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

froog · 13-08-2020 06:55PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Worth pointing out that the 7 day average is being heavily skewed by the 174 cases on one day in the last week. It will likely drop quite dramatically over the next 2 days as long as we report less than 80 on those days. 5 day average sits at 58.

you should get a job in the trump administration.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 06:55PM

froog wrote: »

you should get a job in the trump administration.

By pointing out a statistical observation? Do you know anything about outliers?

s1ippy · 13-08-2020 06:57PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Interesting to listen to the UK professor feeding into the WHO this evening in the covid special advisory committee.
Thinks we're making a mistake by not opening the pubs they've had 10 clusters out of 46,000 pubs which are a good place to study how the virus behaves and there is 0 evidence mask wearing works from what little experience they have in the UK it has the opposite effect and causes cases to rise. There's a real world study happening in Denmark at the moment with results to be published soon as to their effectiveness.
He pretty much said our knee jerk reactions have to stop there doing more harm than good. Our policys aren't based on all the evidence were cherry picking studies to support government policy which is plain wrong.

I'm sorry now like but you're going to have to give a name for this utter lunatic if he exists at all.

gmisk · 13-08-2020 06:57PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a statistical anomaly known as an outlier. You learn that when you study statistics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

I have a masters in computer science, and worked in analytics for about 4 years....so yes I know what an outlier is..no need to be so condescending....you don't have to totally discount it, they are still confirmed cases and not an outlier given the entire data set.

Van.Bosch · 13-08-2020 06:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

By pointing out a statistical observation? Do you know anything about outliers?

A 7 day average should strip out outliers to a certain extent though

froog · 13-08-2020 06:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

By pointing out a statistical observation? Do you know anything about outliers?

what does your vast statistical knowlege tell you when looking at this? is that line trending up or down?

and yes i studied stats in college.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 06:59PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

A 7 day average should strip out outliers to a certain extent though

In most derivations of data then the outlier is removed and a median is used over an average, which I'm assuming Prof. Nolan's team is using.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 07:00PM

froog wrote: »

what does your vast statistical knowlege tell you when looking at this? is that line trending up or down?

Because there's an outlier in the data...... I explained this above.
An example:
Naive interpretation of statistics derived from data sets that include outliers may be misleading. For example, if one is calculating the average temperature of 10 objects in a room, and nine of them are between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius, but an oven is at 175 °C, the median of the data will be between 20 and 25 °C but the mean temperature will be between 35.5 and 40 °C. In this case, the median better reflects the temperature of a randomly sampled object (but not the temperature in the room) than the mean;

Blondini · 13-08-2020 07:00PM

gmisk wrote: »

I have a masters in computer science, and worked in analytics for about 4 years....so yes I know what an outlier is..no need to be so condescending....you don't have to totally discount it, they are still confirmed cases and not an outlier given the data set.

It's also good mathematical practice to only automatically disregard an outlier if that particular data point was the result of a measurement error. So I am with you... include it!

BringBackMick · 13-08-2020 07:00PM

Is there any evidence or scientific discussion with regards to anectodal evidence that the 'second wave' of Covid19 in Europe is not resulting in a big uptick in hospitalisation ?

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 07:01PM

gmisk wrote: »

I have a masters in computer science, and worked in analytics for about 4 years....so yes I know what an outlier is..no need to be so condescending....you don't have to totally discount it, they are still confirmed cases and not an outlier given the entire data set.

I'm talking statistics - an outlier exists within the dataset which is skewing the mean. Do you have an alternative view on this?

drunkmonkey · 13-08-2020 07:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I am curious who he is. If he's that crackpot Swede who said we'd have lots more cases I'd be reaching for the salt. As for pubs remember the Tyrol resort and the skiing in February, with the packed bars, the Korean nightclubs and how many cases came out of them? That too is evidence.

It was session 3 I watched, i'm not sure if you can watch a repeat somewhere, trust me this guy isn't swedish and an idiot like your trying to imply to support your assumptions. His name illudes me and the full list of attendees wasn't published, maybe it'll be online later I'll keep an eye out so you can listen to experts yourself.
https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/committees/schedule/

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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