Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

seamus · 13-08-2020 03:34PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1293913737041043460

This I would believe.

If we look at the HSE data above, the average number of close contacts at the moment is 8. However the median, is 5.

What does that mean? It means that the average is being dragged up by a minority of people who have a lot of contacts.

For example, if there are 600 contact and people have 8 contacts on average, then that's 75 cases

But if the median is five, than that means that 37 of those people have five contacts or less. Or in other words, the total number of contacts for the first 50% of the dataset is at most 185. Which means that the other 50% of the dataset has at least 415 contacts between them, roughly 11 contacts/person.

Which means that 50% of new cases account for at least 69% of all contacts.

The reality is that the figures are likely to be skewed in a much more serious way and that 50% account for 90%+ of all contacts. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the 80/20 rule appeared; that is, 20% of new cases have 80% of the contacts.

The next trick should be to try and identify people who are most likely to be these "superspreaders" and target them specifically for additional mitigations.

hynesie08 · 13-08-2020 03:34PM

Steve F wrote: »

Explain please.
Or was it tongue in cheek?

They're very good when they want to be, and there are equal chances that

a) Russian scientists have developed a vaccine b) it's all propaganda or c) they're going to euthanize their gay population via a fake vaccine.

None of the 3 would surprise me.

BagheeraBlue · 13-08-2020 03:35PM

up russia , up riding

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 03:35PM

Steve F wrote: »

Explain please.
Or was it tongue in cheek?

No it wasn't. They were the first country to get to space, wouldn't surprise me if they had the first working and safe authorised vaccine.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 03:36PM

Positivity rate of 0.8% on swabs in last 24hrs, half of what yesterday's was.

Psychiatric Patrick · 13-08-2020 03:36PM

Strumms wrote: »

By my maths he’d be 83 by then.

Yes, but you thin that would bother him?;);)

Oranage2 · 13-08-2020 03:37PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Positivity rate of 0.8% on swabs in last 24hrs, half of what yesterday's was.

And there seems to be a lot of tests too. Definitely positive signs

Psychiatric Patrick · 13-08-2020 03:38PM

BagheeraBlue wrote: »

up russia , up riding

That is very rude.

But yes, ....

hynesie08 · 13-08-2020 03:39PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

No it wasn't. They were the first country to get to space, wouldn't surprise me if they had the first working and safe authorised vaccine.

Do you think putins ego would have him more likely to horde it, or would he enjoy being the man who saved the world??

Benimar · 13-08-2020 03:40PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Positivity rate of 0.8% on swabs in last 24hrs, half of what yesterday's was.

Maybe, if yesterday included a backlog (which you suspect) then we don't really know what the actual rate was. You would suspect lower than 1.6% as the rate amongst the Meat Plants was high.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 03:41PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Do you think putins ego would have him more likely to horde it, or would he enjoy being the man who saved the world??

The latter 100%

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 03:43PM

Early Spread of COVID-19 Appears Far Greater Than Initially Reported

Patients with undiagnosed flu symptoms who actually had COVID-19 last winter were among thousands of undetected early cases of the disease at the beginning of this year. In a new paper in The Lancet's open-access journal EClinicalMedicine, epidemiological researchers from The University of Texas at Austin estimated COVID-19 to be far more widespread in Wuhan, China, and Seattle, Washington, weeks ahead of lockdown measures in each city.

https://cns.utexas.edu/news/early-spread-of-covid-19-appears-far-greater-than-initially-reported

s1ippy · 13-08-2020 03:44PM

seamus wrote: »

Wowzers. Can probably expect a sizeable jump in cases over the next 48 hours then.

Something weird going on with test turnarounds for community testing too - the mean time to get a result is 3.5 hours larger than the median.

This would indicate that the majority of tests are turning around in 24 hours, but there are a small number of tests that are taking a very long time to come back. I wonder is there one specific lab or area that are dragging their feet?

Staff and patrons of the newly infected creche in Dublin were notified by the on Sunday night that there were confirmed positive cases. The HSE didn't contact the affected individuals until Wednesday and they still don't have appointments for tests. The creche is still operational, it can take up to 100 infants at capacity so you can imagine the impact there.

This gives me no confidence in the systems that are in place. I thought the idea was to make things as safe as possible, not to delay giving people crucial information and deprive them of a test, both of which will enable them to know if they should be self-isolating. Surely the creche should close seeing as staff would undoubtedly be in close contact with each other?

The other one that was infected this week gave a go at staying open but was ultimately ordered to close. These businesses and parents are taking huge risks with the lives of children to make a profit, it's sickening. We're never going to get this under control using these stupid tactics, maybe we need to reexamine the way we do things?

hynesie08 · 13-08-2020 03:44PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The latter 100%

I'm inclined to agree, be interesting to see how the WHO reacts after trump shafted them, I'd say they are a lot more open to it than they were 3 months ago.

MickeyLeari · 13-08-2020 03:48PM

s1ippy wrote: »

Staff and patrons of the newly infected creche in Dublin were notified by the on Sunday night that there were confirmed positive cases. The HSE didn't contact the affected individuals until Wednesday and they still don't have appointments for tests. The creche is still operational, it can take up to 100 infants at capacity so you can imagine the impact there.

This gives me no confidence in the systems that are in place. I thought the idea was to make things as safe as possible, not to delay giving people crucial information and deprive them of a test, both of which will enable them to know if they should be self-isolating. Surely the creche should close seeing as staff would undoubtedly be in close contact with each other?

The “system” is the contract with society for the restrictions on business, commerce and life. There are no excuses 6 months into this.

Oranage2 · 13-08-2020 03:49PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Early Spread of COVID-19 Appears Far Greater Than Initially Reported

https://cns.utexas.edu/news/early-spread-of-covid-19-appears-far-greater-than-initially-reported

I've had some friends and family members staying in bed for 2-3 weeks with the 'flu' around December and January. They reckon it was the virus

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 03:51PM

New study into seroprevalence in England has come back at 6% with an estimated 3.36 million infections.

Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 following the peak of the pandemic in England: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

Completed questionnaires were available for 109,076 participants, yielding 5,544 IgG positive results and adjusted (for test performance), re-weighted (for sampling) prevalence of 6.0% (95% CI: 5.8, 6.1). Highest prevalence was in London (13.0% [12.3, 13.6]), among people of Black or Asian (mainly South Asian) ethnicity (17.3% [15.8, 19.1] and 11.9% [11.0, 12.8] respectively) and those aged 18-24 years (7.9% [7.3, 8.5]). Care home workers with client-facing roles had adjusted odds ratio of 3.1 (2.5, 3.8) compared with non-essential workers. One third (32.2%, [31.0-33.4]) of antibody positive individuals reported no symptoms. Among symptomatic cases, the majority (78.8%) reported symptoms during the peak of the epidemic in England in March (31.3%) and April (47.5%) 2020. We estimate that 3.36 million (3.21, 3.51) people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in England to end June 2020, with an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.90% (0.86, 0.94).

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820.pdf

ceadaoin. · 13-08-2020 04:18PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Early Spread of COVID-19 Appears Far Greater Than Initially Reported

https://cns.utexas.edu/news/early-spread-of-covid-19-appears-far-greater-than-initially-reported

I've said it before but I suspect we had it at Christmas in my house. Pretty sure it wasnt the flu based on our experience with that earlier in the year. Started with my daughter but she was over it fairly quickly and back at school in a few days but it really knocked me for six for a good week.

Boggles · 13-08-2020 04:20PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

No it wasn't. They were the first country to get to space, wouldn't surprise me if they had the first working and safe authorised vaccine.

The failed to get to the moon because they rushed and skipped key testing.

Sounds familiar.

mloc123 · 13-08-2020 04:23PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 7072
Tests conducted last 7 days: 34782
Additional positive tests: 63
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.6%

Now wait for them to announce 100+ later

blowitupref · 13-08-2020 04:23PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 7072
Tests conducted last 7 days: 34782
Additional positive tests: 63
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.6%

Good to see more testing than yesterday (5818) and less positive tests (80)

Previous Thursdays:

6/8: 69
30/07: 85

Should be interesting to see how many cases we'll get today.

Hector Savage · 13-08-2020 04:29PM

Some regions in Spain are banning smoking in public!

Another brilliant move by Spanish govt. we can expect to see cases plummet now

And as if 2020 couldn't get worse

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-08-13/outbreak-of-meningoencephalitis-in-seville-puts-16-people-in-hospital-five-in-the-icu.html

drunkmonkey · 13-08-2020 04:39PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Some regions in Spain are banning smoking in public!

Another brilliant move by Spanish govt. we can expect to see cases plummet now

Isn't smoking tobacco or cannabis meant to lessen your chances of catching covid as it blocks the receptors it latches onto, seems like a strange policy when science is pointing the other way.

The_Brood · 13-08-2020 04:45PM

thelad95 wrote: »

Hasn't even reached phase 3 trials yet, this is highly likely to be shot down by the WHO, and other governments. UN could even get involved.

It took how many months for the WHO to officially recommend wearing face coverings, aka the most obvious virus advice that has been known worldwide for centuries? How many months of mixed messaging, posting utter and complete nonsense informationals about how masks are dangerous and should not be used?

The WHO are practically the last people on the planet anyone should be waiting on guidance from. Now if you want to listen to Chinese propaganda about how Taiwan is their territory, the WHO are your people.

Martina1991 · 13-08-2020 04:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study into seroprevalence in England has come back at 6% with an estimated 3.36 million infections.
Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 following the peak of the pandemic in England: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Delhi in India’s seroprevalence tests have come back at 23.48%, meaning at least 4.7 million have been infected.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIfram...x?PRID=1640137

In the past you have said:

RE: antibody testing - they’re completely inaccurate and missing out on mass amounts of the population who could’ve been infected. It’ll be months before antibody tests give a real look at seroprevalence. We’re closer to herd immunity than previous studies suggest.

I don't know what the alternative is, I'm not a scientist. My original point was antibody tests were not accurate, and many people who had the virus test negative as a result. This means that they're not a good measure of seroprevalence.

The antibody test results seem similar to other countries but ultimately cannot be trusted as not all cases beat the disease with antibodies.

Still means they shouldn’t be doing seroprevalence tests because they’re not accurate.

So why now do you believe seroprevalence studies.

caveat emptor · 13-08-2020 05:00PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1293913737041043460

Thank you

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 05:02PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

In the past you have said:

So why now do you believe seroprevalence studies.

Because they set a minimum? I argue against using them as a maximum possible seroprevalence. Read everything you just quoted me saying, they miss out on people who were infected, meaning that the number provided is lower than is true. The number in England is likely higher than 6% based on this.

MD1990 · 13-08-2020 05:20PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I've said it before but I suspect we had it at Christmas in my house. Pretty sure it wasnt the flu based on our experience with that earlier in the year. Started with my daughter but she was over it fairly quickly and back at school in a few days but it really knocked me for six for a good week.

I had similar.
Took me about 4 weeks to get my energy.

Had no taste & smell & couldnt do anything for a week.
My taste & smell may not have fuly returned yet.

CalamariFritti · 13-08-2020 05:22PM

Boggles wrote: »

You wouldn't give it to a test mouse based on that dangerous nonsense.

I'm sure you're speaking from your vast experience in vaccine development.

Martina1991 · 13-08-2020 05:25PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

Because they set a minimum? I argue against using them as a maximum possible seroprevalence. Read everything you just quoted me saying, they miss out on people who were infected, meaning that the number provided is lower than is true. The number in England is likely higher than 6% based on this.

I know that. No country could use their findings as a max prevalence. They're just epidemiological studies.

But on several occasions you completely dismissed them, and are now posting seroprevalence studies as an actual valuable sourse of information.

It irked me, because you were dismissing the hours of work and man power it takes to validate, collect samples, perform, analyse and report findings for a large study as being useless.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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