Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

Leftwaffe · 07-08-2020 10:46AM

There are calls to call off all sport in Laois today. People are panicking.

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 10:46AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Trend is not great but log scale is worse. Going from 5 to 10 cases per million is not the same as going from 100 to 200.

yeah but trend follows an exponential spread so it is entirely apt.
You know how to read they y-axis right?
I explained the values yesterday.
The x-axis is Tim. It doesn't take long to follow the y-axis.
You are aware our cases doubled week over week?

Why is the following quote below true?
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1279545542687764483?s=20

07-08-2020 10:50AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

yeah but trend follows an exponential spread so it is entirely apt.
You know how to read they y-axis right?
I explained the values yesterday.

Its apt for modelling, and someone used to looking at exponential charts and data can easily interpret, but not as a visual aid for those who don't understand logarithmic graphs.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2020/05/19/the-public-doesnt-understand-logarithmic-graphs-often-used-to-portray-covid-19/

Pitch n Putt · 07-08-2020 10:54AM

seamus wrote: »

The public are being softened up for localised restrictions I think. If it's not this evening, then it'll probably be next week. Something along the lines of a complete shutdown of all meat processing within the midlands - Kildare, Laois, Offaly, potentially Meath & Westmeath - a requirement to work from home where at all possible, and to limit travel to within your own county. People outside of the midlands will be advised to not travel to those counties except to pass through.

The problem with this meat processing stuff is that they're likely all dipping into the same pools of poorly paid workers, if not actually shifting workers from plant to plant. So you can't just shut down Carroll's because half of their workers are going home and sharing a ten-bed dorm with people who work in twenty other plants.

Shutting down all meat processing in the country pending formal inspections might be a goer.

Easy to shutdown Kildare Offaly Westmeath etc.

Would it happen with Dublin though ??

Pitch n Putt · 07-08-2020 10:55AM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Stopped reading at brainwashing from the da meeja and da gubberment

Why bother replying then if you stopped reading.

bluelamp · 07-08-2020 10:59AM

seamus wrote: »

Shutting down all meat processing in the country pending formal inspections might be a goer.

Shut down the meat factories temporarily till to force them to get this act together by all means. But regional lockdown etc would be insane.

In last nights figures there were two cases of community transmission. Just two. One death was in the past week.

These increases the past week are because of major government fúck ups ... direct provision centres and meat factories were a ticking time bomb for this.

Not only did the government have plenty of warning from meat factories abroad, and plenty of warning from tight communal living situations - they did NOTHING to prevent what was staring them in the face. Jesus they even allowed the two settings to combine!

No matter how compliant the public were with restrictions and guidelines... these figures the past week wouldn't have been any different.

The government is doing very well at diverting attention by talking about travel, house parties, people getting complacent etc... when none of that was the cause of the increase in cases.

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 10:59AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Trends not great. Looking like euro wide resurgence.
All of the cases in that chart are not just in meat factories.

In the same way that situation is serious when ICU overwhelmed in a clinical setting,
The spread becomes serious when contract tracing is overwhelmed in absence of a lockdown.

For anyone who is unsure what a log scale is and for those who wilfully muddy waters in a professional or. personal capacity.

Assetbacked · 07-08-2020 11:00AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Trend is not great but log scale is worse. Going from 5 to 10 cases per million is not the same as going from 100 to 200.

New cases is not a barometer of the problem. If those cases are aged under 65 it is of little concern. Other charts need to be used with the cases data like hospitalisations and deaths. That FT chart is effectively useless by itself.

greenspurs · 07-08-2020 11:02AM

8 people in hospital?
really ?? Are they running out of scares ?

Why do 'they' say people have died "WITH" covid, and not "OF" covid ?
There is a difference.

Why has there been no reports of Cancer deaths? Suicides? old age ?
Is that not happening so they can be counted as dying "WITH" covid.

fr336 · 07-08-2020 11:02AM

treade1 wrote: »

When is the penny going to drop. Next thing they won't want people talking to each other. Just received a publication on controlling indoor viral load which contains this gem from Singapore "On public transport, passengers are discouraged from talking (to each other or on phones) to help control the release of viral particles from the mouth."
NPHET and the government will push this further and further while people remain compliant for a virus that in most cases only kills those who are already at deaths door.

Thank god! I have no need to hear peoples phone conversations. What did people do before mobile phones? I imagine they were far more productive and ironically sociable. Very glad the one world government have cooked this crises up to stop people talking on their phones as their economies implode

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 11:04AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

New cases is not a barometer of the problem. If those cases are aged under 65 it is of little concern. Other charts need to be used with the cases data like hospitalisations and deaths. That FT chart is effectively useless by itself.

In your opinion. I guess hospitalisations and deaths are unrelated to cases? :rolleyes:
I tend to get sick before going to hospital.
you might be different so I respect your opinion.

#trolling

07-08-2020 11:07AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

For anyone who is unsure what a log scale is and for those who wilfully muddy waters.

Thank you. Its important that a bit a knowledge on how to interpret charts is imparted as the majority of the population are used to looking at things in a linear fashion.

jill_valentine · 07-08-2020 11:11AM

Boggles wrote: »

Very interesting.

Have you a blog or news letter I can subscribe to?

There's "a publication".

07-08-2020 11:11AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

In your opinion. I guess hospitalisations and deaths are unrelated to cases? :rolleyes:
I tend to get sick before going to hospital.
you might be different so I respect your opinion.

#trolling

Disagreeing or having a different viewpoint is not trolling. You are not the arbitrator of truth on here

Assetbacked · 07-08-2020 11:11AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

In your opinion. I guess hospitalisations and deaths are unrelated to cases? :rolleyes:
I tend to get sick before going to hospital.
you might be different so I respect your opinion.

#trolling

Typical of the ignorance on this forum.

I said by itself it is effectively pointless, I didn't disregard it but just said it needs to be taken in the context of the age of the infected as well as hospitalisations and deaths data.

I've reported your post as it is clearly an attempt to derail the discussion.

Chivito550 · 07-08-2020 11:12AM

seamus wrote: »

The public are being softened up for localised restrictions I think. If it's not this evening, then it'll probably be next week. Something along the lines of a complete shutdown of all meat processing within the midlands - Kildare, Laois, Offaly, potentially Meath & Westmeath - a requirement to work from home where at all possible, and to limit travel to within your own county. People outside of the midlands will be advised to not travel to those counties except to pass through.

The problem with this meat processing stuff is that they're likely all dipping into the same pools of poorly paid workers, if not actually shifting workers from plant to plant. So you can't just shut down Carroll's because half of their workers are going home and sharing a ten-bed dorm with people who work in twenty other plants.

Shutting down all meat processing in the country pending formal inspections might be a goer.

They'll hardly include Celbridge, Leixlip and Maynooth in a Kildare lockdown. All are part of the Dublin area public transport network (Dublin Bus and Rail). Phone numbers are 01 area code too. There'll be uproar if people in these towns have to stay in Kildare because of what's going on in other parts of the county. Sure to get from Leixlip to Celbridge you actually have to pass through Co Dublin, and the Hazelhatch and Celbridge train station is in Co Dublin. Half of St Catherine's Park is in Dublin and half in Kildare.

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 11:18AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Thank you. Its important that a bit a knowledge on how to interpret charts is imparted as the majority of the population are used to looking at things in a linear fashion.

Fair point. No bother. It is a more apt axis to use with something that changes exponentially.

The doubling time yesterday is 7/8 days Dr Philip Nolan said could double again by next week.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1291434016252592129?s=20

seamus · 07-08-2020 11:19AM

Chivito550 wrote: »

They'll hardly include Celbridge, Leixlip and Maynooth in a Kildare lockdown. All are part of the Dublin area public transport network (Dublin Bus and Rail). Phone numbers are 01 area code too. There'll be uproar if people in these towns have to stay in Kildare because of what's going on in other parts of the county. Sure to get from Leixlip to Celbridge you actually have to pass through Co Dublin, and the Hazelhatch and Celbridge train station is in Co Dublin. Half of St Catherine's Park is in Dublin and half in Kildare.

I'm talking really more about a "20km or within your own county, whichever is greater" thing like we did before.

Trying to impose restrictions on specific townlands is just messy and confusing. County borders are at least well defined and understood.

Ten of Swords · 07-08-2020 11:22AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Defo troll to distract.

caveat emptor wrote: »

#trolling

caveat emptor wrote: »

Defo troll

@caveat emptor - report posts you think are trolling, you've called out 3 people on thread today. Do it again and you won't be posting in this thread anymore

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 11:25AM

So the people responsible for the public health of the country are very concerned with the rise in cases.
But you it's not a good barometer?
Maybe don't try to undermine their genuine concern?

I'll go with them thank and leave modding to mods.

Assetbacked wrote: »

New cases is not a barometer of the problem. If those cases are aged under 65 it is of little concern. Other charts need to be used with the cases data like hospitalisations and deaths. That FT chart is effectively useless by itself.

caveat emptor wrote: »

In your opinion. I guess hospitalisations and deaths are unrelated to cases? :rolleyes:
I tend to get sick before going to hospital.
you might be different so I respect your opinion.

#trolling

Assetbacked wrote: »

Typical of the ignorance on this forum.

I said by itself it is effectively pointless, I didn't disregard it but just said it needs to be taken in the context of the age of the infected as well as hospitalisations and deaths data.

I've reported your post as it is clearly an attempt to derail the discussion.

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 11:30AM

I guess deliberately muddying water so people feel better about the situation or themselves is not my speciality.

My cat had it then went for a pint. It'll be grand.

The Unbearables · 07-08-2020 11:30AM

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

There are calls to call off all sport in Laois today. People are panicking.

Same people panicking today had no problems with house parties last week.

Stupidity 101.

GooglePlus · 07-08-2020 11:31AM

Public health teams will be stretched for the next while with these outbreaks, let's hope they can scale up.

I'm not worried though, our country is known for its forward planning and implementation of technological resolve :rolleyes:

caveat emptor · 07-08-2020 11:34AM

What will the numbers be tonight?
That's a great irrelevant conversation.

Above or below 100.
I'd say 95 so people don't completely lose their ****.

07-08-2020 11:34AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Fair point. No bother. It is a more apt axis to use with something that changes exponentially.

The doubling time yesterday is 7/8 days Dr Philip Nolan said could double again by next week.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1291434016252592129?s=20

It happened in Germany in mid June also in a similar manner to here, where cases effectively doubled in a week. 6 weeks later, they still haven't quite doubled for a second time and is controlled, so its monitor carefully, but not time for a kneejerk reaction. Next 10 to 14 days will tell a lot

Boggles · 07-08-2020 11:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It happened in Germany in mid June also in a similar manner to here, where cases effectively doubled in a week. 6 weeks later, they still haven't quite doubled for a second time and is controlled, so its monitor carefully, but not time for a kneejerk reaction. Next 10 to 14 days will tell a lot

It stayed relatively stable in Germany, spike from one factory that didn't obey the rules, that was pretty much it.

It's starting to climb a bit now though.

thelad95 · 07-08-2020 11:43AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It happened in Germany in mid June also in a similar manner to here, where cases effectively doubled in a week. 6 weeks later, they still haven't quite doubled for a second time and is controlled, so its monitor carefully, but not time for a kneejerk reaction. Next 10 to 14 days will tell a lot

In Germany things are done properly.

Here some half-arsed paddy whackery rubbish like "stay within the county boundaries of Laois" will be implemented and some crappy vague guidance like "only have up to ten guests at your house". Meanwhile the Gardaí will show face by having one or two checkpoints but otherwise nothing will happen.

Things are about to spiral out of control here and we no longer have the strong guidance to see us through it. We're quite unlucky in that there has been a complete changing of the guard from CMO to Taoiseach to Health Minister and the transition has been disastrous so far.

Renjit · 07-08-2020 11:43AM

Boggles wrote: »

It stayed relatively stable in Germany, spike from one factory that didn't obey the rules, that was pretty much it.

It's starting to climb a bit now though.

Germany has better control.

CalamariFritti · 07-08-2020 11:46AM

jill_valentine wrote: »

Good. If you won't do the right thing for the right reason, then the rest of us will have to help you do it for the wrong one.

I can see from your conflation of "reservations about effectiveness" with "no evidence that they work" that you're mad for a bit of Facebook contrarianism.

In the real world, a child can understand that a barrier blocks vapour, and that some barrier is better than none. Nobody who refuses to wear a mask is going to substitute it with better hygiene or more distancing, and there’s far more to say they work than there is to say otherwise.

If you want to feel special, buy a bathbomb. In the meantime, show your neighbour's health the respect it deserves.

The problem with that assertion 'a child can understand' and its underlying logic is that it starts off wrong altogether. Yes a piece of fabric in front of your orifices will reduce your emissions. Sure how can you argue with that?

But we made masks mandatory in settings where empirical evidence suggests that we don't reach any kind of dangerous levels of viral aerosols to begin with.

Its like saying walking around with a hard hat on you has to be safer than not wearing one. Sure is, but how many bricks come off supermarket ceilings?

-

Masks are part of the restrictions. Restrictions must be the absolute minimum necessary. As such the onus should be on those who impose them on us to prove that they are a necessary and appropriate and proportionate measure. We shouldn't be imposing restrictions based on children's logic, because 'just in case' or 'you can never be safe enough' or because 'sure everyone else is doing it'.

For most of the restrictions from the very start of it went like this: Someone's doing something. Someone else doesn't have a better idea so they're doing it too. Next everybody else MUST do it too, because sure the others are doing it and if you don't every future infection you have will be measured against 'ah well you should have done XYZ like the others'.
So doing stuff takes off like a wave and nobody ever questions anything. Anyone who even in minor detail tries to go against the flow - Sweden is a good example - will be ganged up on and bombarded with accusations of not doing everything they could have done.

And of course in order to assure ourselves that we're doing the right thing and the necessary thing we MUST keep up this narrative of this super dangerous virus that we must remain super vigilant with and we put the fear of god into our people with a months long bombardment of bad OMG news. I'm not saying this virus isn't dangerous but the whole thing becomes this self perpetuating cycle of fear and actions. Even if it did turn out it isn't as dangerous as we thought - not saying it aint just even if it did - we couldn't actually admit it. We have to keep this narrative going to justify our previous actions. So this will go on and on and on.

Boggles · 07-08-2020 11:48AM

Renjit wrote: »

Germany has better control.

Yep. I would be very wary with comparisons with other countries, especially Germany.

Like I said previously.

When Germany had their peak, they had more spare capacity in ICU than Ireland and the UK have ICU capacity.

They were taking in Covid patients from Italy, they were also processing a large amount of our tests.

Germany haven't spent the last 4 decades fumbling and fúcking from one crisis to another.

They see a nail, they belt it with a hammer.

We spend 400m on a tribunal to find out who ran off with the hammer.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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