Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

ongarite · 05-08-2020 06:37PM

Gael23 wrote: »

You can allow travel only within the island of Ireland

Hoping that a sovereign nation the majority of whom view themselves as more British than mainland British will close themselves off from those people is absolute pie in the sky stuff.

froog · 05-08-2020 06:37PM

is_that_so wrote: »

250K is about 5% of the population, which is the level they've found in antibody testing.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-31004784.html

"The seminar, given by a consultant immunologist at a Dublin hospital last week, heard that the test to be administered by the Irish population is likely to return with a false positive rate of 5%."

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 06:38PM

BagheeraBlue wrote: »

travellers are a race now ?

I assumed they were referring to the direct provision holes.

05-08-2020 06:39PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Has any country stabilized after getting 50 cases or so? I dont think so and its magnified given our population

Denmark, Austria and many others have seen steady but stable increases over a couple of months

landofthetree · 05-08-2020 06:39PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So no deaths is good which is nearly a week without new deaths which is obviously good. So the last four or five days it's 53,46,45,50 so I suppose given we had 89 nearly a week ago and the numbers have dropped again(albeit at a higher number) and are staying more or less on the mid forty to fifty range is good. It's not growing at and raising as of now.

Yesterday's results we on the back of 1977 tests.

At one stage we were testing 8000 people.

So less people being tested and higher numbers of cases is bad news. Very bad news.

s1ippy · 05-08-2020 06:41PM

3761 tests, last 24 hours
52 positives

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:42PM

froog wrote: »

they haven't found anything in ireland cause the survey is not complete. i think you are getting the 5% from this :

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-31004784.html

"The seminar, given by a consultant immunologist at a Dublin hospital last week, heard that the test to be administered by the Irish population is likely to return with a false positive rate of 5%."

so we don't even have results yet, and the 5% figure people are posting is what a lecturer thinks will be the false positive rate. i wish people would stop throwing out completely wrong information on here without a small bit of research. it took me all of 10 seconds to find that.

It was a wasted 10 seconds although the frenzied two minutes you took to bash all of that out you may never get back!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-ireland-has-no-significant-herd-immunity-study-shows-1.4308216

05-08-2020 06:43PM

froog wrote: »

where are you getting that from? or did you just make it up?

Extensively discussed. Some believe it may be even more. But is certainly far far in excess of 26,000

landofthetree · 05-08-2020 06:44PM

s1ippy wrote: »

3761 tests, last 24 hours
52 positives

Good news. Yesterday's 45 cases on the back of 1977 was very worrying.

froog · 05-08-2020 06:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It was a wasted 10 seconds although the frenzied two minutes you took to bash all of that out you may never get back!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-ireland-has-no-significant-herd-immunity-study-shows-1.4308216

the point remains - the test used was called out as giving a 5% false positive before the results and that's exactly what the result was. i.e. the survey is less than useless.

s1ippy · 05-08-2020 06:44PM

What's the story with 11 cases in Wexford? They only had 4 in the last month.

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:45PM

froog wrote: »

the point remains - the test used was called out as giving a 5% false positive before the results and that's exactly what the result was. i.e. the survey is less than useless.

Well, let's make sure they ask you the next time out so!

caveat emptor · 05-08-2020 06:46PM

is_that_so wrote: »

250K is about 5% of the population, which is the level they've found in antibody testing.

yeah so that only leaves 95% of us.
or 4,660,000 yet to be infected.
Not that much really.

Oranage2 · 05-08-2020 06:47PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So no deaths is good which is nearly a week without new deaths which is obviously good. So the last four or five days it's 53,46,45,50 so I suppose given we had 89 nearly a week ago and the numbers have dropped again(albeit at a higher number) and are staying more or less on the mid forty to fifty range is good. It's not growing at and raising as of now.

Well a week ago it was around 18 cases on average. Now it looks to be 49 cases a day on average. Over double. A phase 4 could easily double it again to 100 cases. The government are at a crossroads to what to do, they honestly haven't a clue and they're just desperately hoping that cases will just go down again magically.

They've to either

A) go back to a strict lockdown with a quarantine for arrived (people will riot if this happens)

just accept covid is a part of life now and open everything up (people will be up in arms with all the deaths)

Overall the government will get some praise for doing better than other countries but I believe it's unwarranted praise.

05-08-2020 06:47PM

froog wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-31004784.html

"The seminar, given by a consultant immunologist at a Dublin hospital last week, heard that the test to be administered by the Irish population is likely to return with a false positive rate of 5%."

So no one has had the virus then?

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:48PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

yeah so that only leaves 95% of us.
or 4,660,000 yet to be infected.
Not that much really.

No, it's been similar elsewhere. I think it was as low as 3% in some parts of Spain.

froog · 05-08-2020 06:48PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Well, let's make sure they ask you the next time out so!

or ask the consultant immunologist who called it out or the Irish College of General Practitioners who hosted the seminar.

spookwoman · 05-08-2020 06:49PM

s1ippy wrote: »

What's the story with 11 cases in Wexford? They only had 4 in the last month.

Reporter is checking out something they heard but if true not good

caveat emptor · 05-08-2020 06:49PM

ongarite wrote: »

And just how would you do that?
Thousands of people in border counties cross into NI every day for work, shopping and leisure.
Same for residents of NI, many thousands of them work here every day. You can't legally stop them going to their place of work.
We can't force another country to close parts of its border to its own citizens.
UK residents can travel to NI at any time and there is no way that will be stopped.

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1290911990026842112?s=20

froog · 05-08-2020 06:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

So no one has had the virus then?

certainly more than 26,000, that's pretty certain. but claiming 10 times that based on a flawed antibody test is bad science.

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 06:50PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So no one has had the virus then?

Correct, it was all a big joke on you.

"You can come out now lads"

caveat emptor · 05-08-2020 06:51PM

Doing us proud.......

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1291021139146203139?s=20

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:52PM

froog wrote: »

or ask the consultant immunologist who called it out or the Irish College of General Practitioners who hosted the seminar.

We have a lot of such experts "calling people out" and not all of it is based on scientific insights. In the end, it really doesn't matter what it is, it's too low to be of use so it's vaccines, treatment and a good strategy of disease management we need.

landofthetree · 05-08-2020 06:54PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1290911990026842112?s=20

This should have been the aim months ago.

The Common travel area having the same policy.

If you want to come in you sit for 14 days in a centre and are tested for covid.

05-08-2020 06:57PM

froog wrote: »

the point remains - the test used was called out as giving a 5% false positive before the results and that's exactly what the result was. i.e. the survey is less than useless.

False negative rate is likely higher than false positive

caveat emptor · 05-08-2020 06:58PM

is_that_so wrote: »

No, it's been similar elsewhere. I think it was as low as 3% in some parts of Spain.

Did they use the same test with the 5% false positive rate?

I.e you test 100 people who definitely didn’t have it , you’ll get at least 5 positives. I haven’t seen a link for that but the other poster seemed adamant. (Not that that is proof)

random_banter · 05-08-2020 06:58PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Reporter is checking out something they heard but if true not good

Which reporter?

Any indication of where in Wexford the cases have popped up?

Jim_Hodge · 05-08-2020 06:59PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Did they use the same test with the 5% false positive rate?

I.e you test 100 people who definitely didn’t have it , you’ll get at least 5 positives. I haven’t seen a link for that but the other poster seemed adamant. (Not that that is proof)

That other poster, despite being asked several times, couldn't show that level of false positive after March.

BohsCeltic · 05-08-2020 07:02PM

Got really frustrated there when i went my local mid size supermarket. I wore my mask even though i knew i would only be there for 5-10 mins.

It was busy and i was the only one wearing one apart from an old man who was wearing a disposable mask that looked like it had been worn a million times.

Then when queuing to pay there was a chap right behind me breathing down my neck.

WTF is wrong with people :mad:

Rob A. Bank · 05-08-2020 07:03PM

Looking for information ...

If a traveler from Texas visits his/her ancestral home and distant relatives in Ireland, having ignored the 14 day isolation, and then tests positive for Covid. I have no doubt that he/she would be recorded as a travel related case.

However if he/she infected some of the relatives... would they be recorded as 'travel related' or just a local cluster ?

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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