Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 05:28PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I wouldn't say 10,000 but I would go as far to say 3-4 thousand a day for a few days, we simply weren't testing enough to even nearly pick thit up

I'd well believe that, our testing was a shambles early on.

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 05:29PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I'd well believe that, our testing was a shambles early on.

I'm a big believer that our real case figure is 3-4 times (maybe even more) higher due to our testing mishaps. The reason I say that is because I think nursing home infection acts as an indicator of community spread. A lot of nursing homes were effected, hence high community spread.

John O.Groats · 05-08-2020 05:30PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Malta with 36 cases today after being removed from the green list yesterday. In population terms that's the equivalent of roughly 380 cases here.

And what conclusion do you draw from that? Cause for concern or not?

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 05:31PM

John O.Groats wrote: »

And what conclusion do you draw from that? Cause for concern or not?

Malta has a relatively low case rate, hasn't even reached 1000 yet so it's not entirely surprising or concerning

Oranage2 · 05-08-2020 05:36PM

Anyone want to guess at the numbers today?

Mine is 55

US2 · 05-08-2020 05:36PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

that's such a shame bcosrather Greece rely heavily on tourisim. Unfortunately when you get the greed from all ove Europe pushing t. heir

way into he country it will spread.

What we have to look at is which countries can deal with hospital admissions etc. Greece can't. Irelandcan just about but we will be overwhelmed soon. But, now I think mitigation is in place.

Has to be trolling. Our hospitals weren't overwhelmed at the peak of this, but now cases are extremely low, and generally in the younger age group, yet you say with certainty that our hospitals will be overwhelmed soon??

kenmc · 05-08-2020 05:37PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Anyone want to guess at the numbers today?

Mine is 55

That would be surprising as a citizen posted earlier there were 52 positive tests.

timsey tiger · 05-08-2020 05:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm a big believer that our real case figure is 3-4 times (maybe even more) higher due to our testing mishaps. The reason I say that is because I think nursing home infection acts as an indicator of community spread. A lot of nursing homes were effected, hence high community spread.

I'm not sure that this is the full story. I suspect that the various medical services served as a significant source of covid infections.

This was shown in a study in Italy earlier in the year.

What Username Guidelines · 05-08-2020 05:39PM

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1291050002333274113?s=20

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 05:39PM

kenmc wrote: »

That would be surprising as a citizen posted earlier there were 52 positive tests.

Haven't they not aligned before?

Hopefully they do but the reporting isn't always black or white for some reason.

kenmc · 05-08-2020 05:41PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Haven't they not aligned before?

Hopefully they do but the reporting isn't always black or white for some reason.

I thought that tests usually exceed cases, but rarely the other way round

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 05:43PM

kenmc wrote: »

I thought that tests usually exceed cases, but rarely the other way round

It has done, I'm pretty sure the time we had 85 cases, the tests were far lower but the days prior to that were lower case wise too so it seemed to be a back log.

Hard to know, I don't look at the data I just have a goo at what is put up here.

Benimar · 05-08-2020 05:44PM

kenmc wrote: »

I thought that tests usually exceed cases, but rarely the other way round

Works both ways.

Tests last Wednesday 46. Cases 14
Tests last Thursday 55. Cases 85

However data appears up to date, so wouldn’t expect more than the 52 tests to be reported as cases.

Queried · 05-08-2020 05:46PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

It has done, I'm pretty sure the time we had 85 cases, the tests were far lower but the days prior to that were lower case wise too so it seemed to be a back log.

Hard to know, I don't look at the data I just have a goo at what is put up here.

Yeah I think you're right re the tests being lower on the day we had 85 cases. I think it was because they did all the contact tracing and testing related to a number of clusters and only reported them once they'd tested everyone, but at least one of the initial clusters had been discovered almost a week prior. Open to correction on this.

05-08-2020 05:46PM

Boggles wrote: »

You do have somewhat of a point.

But essentially one pub just shut down Aberdeen.

So I wouldn't call pubs a Red Herring.

NPHET are not trying to keep them closed because they are mean bástards.

It may be one group of people who went to one pub though. We don’t know

05-08-2020 05:49PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

You reckon we had 10,000 cases a day?

At peak it’s likely we had of that order. We know it’s likely we have had 250k cases since march, so averaging about 1.5k cases per day since march

caveat emptor · 05-08-2020 05:51PM

New York setting up quarantine checkpoints for people from other states. Guess he didn’t get the talking point that it’s not a travel related illness.
There is no evidence that anybody ever broke a quarantine.
People in dog food factories don’t get holidays.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1291045315966099460?s=21

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 05:52PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At peak it’s likely we had of that order. We know it’s likely we have had 250k cases since march, so averaging about 1.5k cases per day since march

Where did you hear this?

Was it random antibody testing? I thought our population infection rate was a lot lower than that to be honest.

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 05:56PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Where did you hear this?

Was it random antibody testing? I thought our population infection rate was a lot lower than that to be honest.

That's 5% from the antibody testing.

Jinglejangle69 · 05-08-2020 06:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's 5% from the antibody testing.

In Ireland?

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 06:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's 5% from the antibody testing.

Just seen the IT article on the tests and the 5% result.

10k cases at the peak doesn't sound as outlandish now.

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:05PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

In Ireland?

Initial data suggested that.

stephenjmcd · 05-08-2020 06:06PM

https://twitter.com/ShamimMalekmian/status/1291055268944588801?s=19

JP Liz V1 · 05-08-2020 06:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's 5% from the antibody testing.

Has that testing started in Ireland?

Non solum non ambulabit · 05-08-2020 06:06PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Where did you hear this?

Was it random antibody testing? I thought our population infection rate was a lot lower than that to be honest.

Antibody testing is not reliable as they reduce over time.

https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-immunity-test-antibody-study-mild-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:07PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Has that testing started in Ireland?

Think it started in June.

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 06:08PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Antibody testing is not reliable as they reduce over time.

https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-immunity-test-antibody-study-mild-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/

So the actual infection rate could be higher again then?

normanoffside · 05-08-2020 06:08PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Just seen the IT article on the tests and the 5% result.

10k cases at the peak doesn't sound as outlandish now.

Bear in mind that it has been well shown by now that a lot of people who had the infection don't show for Antibodies.
Either
a) they fight it off with T Cells and never produce antibodies
or
b) they produce antibodies at the time but these reduce in number after a few weeks/months to become undetectable (T-Cells are like memory cells and can quickly reproduce them if needed).

is_that_so · 05-08-2020 06:09PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

So the actual infection rate could be higher again then?

Other countries have come in between 5% and about 12% so unlikely to be all that much higher.

shinzon · 05-08-2020 06:09PM

No deaths and 50 new cases today.

Shin

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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