Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

Ce he sin · 05-08-2020 02:56PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I agree that there are risks and nobody likes those but I don't agree that Sweden's approach isn't going well for them. They're doing no worse than us and there are indications that they will not see a resurgence like other countries do.

How well they're doing would depend very much on whether you accept their official figures for Covid deaths (5,700 odd) or go by the excess deaths over the average for the same period (something in excess of 7,500 as I recall).

As for a resurgence, it's too early to say. Their numbers peaked later and are still reducing. The experience elsewhere is that numbers reach a minimum, hold there for a while and then increase at a slower rate than first time around.

gipi · 05-08-2020 02:56PM

GazzaL wrote: »

I heard about a fella wearing one of those plastic face shields which fogged up, resulting in him not being able to see, falling and injuring himself, and a nice trip to hospital.

giveitholly wrote: »

Next there will probably be some story of someone wearing it while driving and it causing a crash

Well, someone is suing her employer (a pub) after a fall while wearing a "covid visor"!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/woman-suing-after-fall-on-pub-stairs-says-covid-visor-made-it-difficult-to-see-39396069.html

(full article behind a paywall)

bb1234567 · 05-08-2020 02:56PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Richard Chambers on Twitter saying suspected cases in hospital are rising...... because hospitals are busier, Richard. Jesus Christ, the ineptitude. Every single person who walks into hospital is a suspected case. I know someone who has been in 4 times over the past 2 weeks and has been tested every single time. Is the media ignorant on purpose?

That's not true about everyone who attends hospital being suspected. My grandad went in for surgery recently, he's been tested for COVID at least twice during his stay, if not more. The first time he was a bit afraid as he thought the testing meant he was suspected but they said it was not suspected, just routine testing before he goes for surgery.

So I can only speak for that hospital but certainly in that one he was not listed as suspected of having COVID despite being hospitalised and tested for COVID.

It makes absolutely no sense that anyone hospitalised is suspected. Presumably it is anyone hopsitalised and showing signs of respiratiry distress or other symptoms.

05-08-2020 02:57PM

[QUOTE=Micky 32;114 He told me the doctors had passed comment that people on blood thinners were less likely to get seriously ill. I have no way of backing that up but found it an interesting comment.[/QUOTE]

Another known complication of viral induced pneumonia is dysfunctional coagulation. Because Covid is more severe, clotting issues with it are observed more often, but it is not new

Several studies of viral infections such as influzena have revealed that dysfunctional coagulation is a common complication of severe influenza-induced pneumonia

https://hospitalhealthcare.com/covid-19/do-anticoagulants-protect-against-covid-19/

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 02:58PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

That's not true about everyone who attends hospital being suspected. My grandad went in for surgery recently, he's been tested for COVID at least twice during his stay, if not more. The first time he was a bit afraid as he thought the testing meant he was suspected but they said it was not suspected, just routine testing before he goes for surgery.

So I can only speak for that hospital but certainly in that one he was not listed as suspected of having COVID.

He's obviously not suspected yes but they do treat anyone waiting for a test result as suspected in the HSE report.

iguana · 05-08-2020 03:01PM

YellowBucket wrote: »

Bare in mind that a vaccine can be designed to trigger immunity more strongly than just getting the virus and hoping for the best.

Where did you get this from? Vaccine immunity is usually significantly weaker than immunity gained from natural infection to a virus. There is no reason to believe Covid is any different.

fr336 · 05-08-2020 03:02PM

Has anyone known a virus that tries to kill you and if it can't manage that can (in I guess rare instances) leave serious damage to your most vital organs, even brain damage? It's hard to believe and feels like a "perfect" virus when you add in how easy it is to catch it.

bb1234567 · 05-08-2020 03:03PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

Because it's a theory, is all. Antibody presence is the strongest evidence we have of virus infection rates and they show a very low level of infection in Ireland and Europe, and while it may have many issues it is a much more useful means of informing policy than that guy's theory, which is not backed up by any population studies.

If Michael's theory turns out to be false, he has little to lose. A government's poorly made decision based on his theory could cost many lives.

Jim_Hodge · 05-08-2020 03:04PM

fr336 wrote: »

Has anyone known a virus that tries to kill you and if it can't manage that can (in I guess rare instances) leave serious damage to your most vital organs, even brain damage? It's hard to believe and feels like a "perfect" virus when you add in how easy it is to catch it.

A virus doesn't try to kill you. It doesn't try to do anything. Indeed a virus that mutated or evolved to kill all its hosts would fail to survive itself.

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 03:06PM

fr336 wrote: »

Has anyone known a virus that tries to kill you and if it can't manage that can (in I guess rare instances) leave serious damage to your most vital organs, even brain damage? It's hard to believe and feels like a "perfect" virus when you add in how easy it is to catch it.

The perfect virus would pass through a population and leave it none the wiser.

05-08-2020 03:09PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

Levitt at least does not a have much of a track record with his projections

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/nobel-laureate-israel-will-have-no-more-than-ten-coronavirus-deaths-621407

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

And based on Gupta's March article she might be in the same vain:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

A bit of google on the rivalry between Gupta at Oxford and the Imperial team in the UK suggests if one said the sky was blue, the other would deny it

caveat emptor · 05-08-2020 03:09PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But trying to avoid getting infected, isn't that just going to drag it out much longer?

Since this virus can't be contained we're all going to get exposed to it sooner or later. Its inevitable *. So now its a question of how thats going to unfold, right?

We let it go through the population too quickly we have too many acute cases that we cant treat properly and people die.

We let it go through too slowly we will be in perpetual lockdown limbo for a very very long time.

Should the strategy not be to let it go through the population in a controlled manner but as quickly as possible - as quickly as our health service capacity allows us to?

* I know there are people here - some of them very active and should know better at this point - who think this thing can be eradicated. But I don't think that's in any way realistic and its not supported by science either. Except for some mad people like Mr Killeen.

So to take your example and let it go through the population.

That would be the thing to do if you knew that the following were true.

post infection people were immune for a long period of time
that the infection didn't write off the health of a large portion of the infected

In the simplest terms we don't know that those things are true.
After all we let the cold run through the community each year.
We are not immune to coronavirus colds for any length of time.
Otherwise there would be no colds.

On the second point we are learning more every day.
That's the thing about a novel virus and long term damage.
You have to wait a long time to see if there was any damaged caused.

Thirdly there are multiple vaccines in development. Hopefully one will be successful. Most likely it might be seasonal like the flu.

If we have to lock down because we get multiple shutdowns due to outbreaks politically that will become the more palatable option. Schools more important than pubs. Long term health and prosperity of the country is more important than unrestricted travel. If this is done at an Irish level great. If it's done at a UK and Ireland Level even better. If it's done at EU level perfect. Obviously there'll be losers but the means justify the ends unfortunately. It might just go away though.

Unfortunately a lot of people may get sick. Zero civiid doesn't mean there is zero instances of it, just that the probability of contracting it is closet to zero and imported cases are managed.

AFIK the virus hasn't become any less easy to transmit. Nor has it change in severity of disease. We'll have to wait and see how it pans out.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1290959396642656257?s=20

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1290536475197616128?s=20

Boggles · 05-08-2020 03:10PM

political analyst wrote: »

What do you think of Sunetra Gupta's theory?

Her theory was based on 50% of the population all ready having it.

And when that turned out not to be true, she claimed they all had natural immunity.

So to answer your question, not much.

Sconsey · 05-08-2020 03:11PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

A virus doesn't try to kill you. It doesn't try to do anything. Indeed a virus that mutated or evolved to kill all its hosts would fail to survive itself.

Yeah, that is the big weakness of the Ebola virus...it is too deadly for it's own good. Generally with Ebola it hits a group of people but rarely gets to spread too far because the hosts die very quckly and are not interacting to spread it.

There have been cases of Ebola in Africa where a small village gets wiped out but does not spread because everyone was too sick to travel and unfortunately ultimately died very quickly.

05-08-2020 03:13PM

gipi wrote: »

Well, someone is suing her employer (a pub) after a fall while wearing a "covid visor"!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/woman-suing-after-fall-on-pub-stairs-says-covid-visor-made-it-difficult-to-see-39396069.html

(full article behind a paywall)

we don't do ourselves any favours as a people do we. If something is obstructing your view on stairs either remove it, or if required to wear it, take additional care. Where is personal responsibility gone

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 03:33PM

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 3761
Tests conducted last 7 days: 23469
Additional positive tests: 52
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.4%

Seems cases/positive tests have plateaued

billybonkers · 05-08-2020 03:39PM

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/second-grader-coronavirus-first-day-of-school/index.html

Second grader tests positive for coronavirus after attending the first day of school in Georgia

stephenjmcd · 05-08-2020 03:40PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 3761
Tests conducted last 7 days: 23469
Additional positive tests: 52
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.4%

Seems cases/positive tests have plateaued

Going to be like this for a while one would suspect. The clusters in the kildare factories and direct provision centres are massive by Irish standards for clusters

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 03:42PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Going to be like this for a while one would suspect. The clusters in the kikdare factories and direct provision centres are massive by Irish standards for clusters

We're going to start seeing Day 7 contact testing come through now in the positive tests in the next few days too

giveitholly · 05-08-2020 03:44PM

Least the figure won't be over 100 cases today that one poster was predicting

Boggles · 05-08-2020 03:45PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Going to be like this for a while one would suspect. The clusters in the kildare factories and direct provision centres are massive by Irish standards for clusters

I imagine it will be pretty variable regardless.

stephenjmcd · 05-08-2020 03:53PM

Boggles wrote: »

I imagine it will be pretty variable regardless.

Of course but simply based on low community transmittion in general & how big these clusters are, the settings involved, the contacts day 0 & day 7 testing we'll be seeing the sort of positive numbers in the swabs that citizen posted, for a while.

05-08-2020 03:55PM

billybonkers wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/second-grader-coronavirus-first-day-of-school/index.html

Second grader tests positive for coronavirus after attending the first day of school in Georgia

In other words, he arrived in school with it already in a state with a daily case rate around 20x our current case rate. If we had 1000 cases a day would we open the schools?

giveitholly · 05-08-2020 04:00PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of course but simply based on low community transmittion in general & how big these clusters are, the settings involved, the contacts day 0 & day 7 testing we'll be seeing the sort of positive numbers in the swabs that citizen posted, for a while.

Does that mean a person could test positive on day 0 and day 7,it would be two positive tests but still only count as one case?

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 04:00PM

giveitholly wrote: »

Does that mean a person could test positive on day 0 and day 7,it would be two positive tests but still only count as one case?

Exactly yes

MD1990 · 05-08-2020 04:00PM

I cant see the opening of schools going well at all.

I think they ll be shut down again within 5-6 weeks.

Hope I am wrong & it goes well.

Boggles · 05-08-2020 04:03PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of course but simply based on low community transmittion in general & how big these clusters are, the settings involved, the contacts day 0 & day 7 testing we'll be seeing the sort of positive numbers in the swabs that citizen posted, for a while.

TBF community transmission was lower when these large clusters developed.

Benimar · 05-08-2020 04:09PM

giveitholly wrote: »

Does that mean a person could test positive on day 0 and day 7,it would be two positive tests but still only count as one case?

According to this https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/contacttracingguidance/National%20Interim%20Guidance%20for%20contact%20tracing.pdf

contacts are only tested on day 7 if the day 1 test is negative.

Makes sense tbh.

Oranage2 · 05-08-2020 04:14PM

MD1990 wrote: »

I cant see the opening of schools going well at all.

I think they ll be shut down again within 5-6 weeks.

Hope I am wrong & it goes well.

Yeah I agree, the government seem to be really pushing opening the schools but it seems so forced. There's no plan yet (besides wait for the guidelines and come up with your own plan) and the schools are supposedly opening in less Than month. The next three week's numbers will decide but I don't see how the numbers will lower, people are already so fed up with the measures that they don't care anymore.

What Username Guidelines · 05-08-2020 04:23PM

ICU up to 6 this afternoon, 17 in hospital overall.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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