Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

is_that_so · 02-08-2020 06:51PM

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Today he's happier, yesterday he was concerned. What way will he feel tomorrow? He doesn't have a crystal ball to tell him who's spreading the virus to who presently.

Concerned is better than worried or alarmed, we know this. There is no crystal ball but the current number of cases and the average number of contacts can give them an indication. Linking the vast majority of new cases to existing clusters is a very good thing in terms of management of the disease as it shows our systems are working.

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 06:51PM

touts wrote: »

Can't see it. If opening the pubs in August in any way endangers the opening of schools in September then the pubs will stay shut. If that means they go out of business then the attitude will be so be it. It's the lesser of two evils. Opening the schools enables hundreds of thousands of parents to get back into the economy. The pubs employ a fraction of that. And in 2-3 years there will be a vaccine and most pubs will have reopened with new owners and staff. It will be a no brainier really.

I'm just telling ya what I think will happen. Don't be surprised.

ninebeanrows · 02-08-2020 06:52PM

And btw Boards is fked up tonight and it's not due to the nuts including me who post here

froog · 02-08-2020 06:52PM

xabi wrote: »

What if we don’t find a vaccine?

i am quite confident we will.

Wild Field 1831 · 02-08-2020 06:52PM

I know identifying clusters and dealing with them is far better than unknown community transmission.

But if you have too many clusters, resources are stretched and you end up with.. a cluster fcuk. Where you arrive at the same point, at a slower rate, than community transmission.

ixoy · 02-08-2020 06:53PM

VinLieger wrote: »

They really need to start breaking down the dublin numbers for everyone to see. Everything ive heard is the real problems in dublin are north off the liffey.

What's your source for this? And "north of the Liffey" includes a massive area and towns like Swords.

Turtwig · 02-08-2020 06:53PM

froog wrote: »

we'll manage. the economy can deal better with a cycling approach of lockdowns, 2-4 weeks lockdown, 2-4 weeks mostly full reopening. the alternative is many more dead people.

To pardon the cliché this is an unprecedented situation we simply do not know how the economy would cope either way. The only certainty is that it's fcked. All the jobs stimulus packages in the world aren't going to prevent that.

Plumbthedepths · 02-08-2020 06:53PM

froog wrote: »

i know dead people don't contribute much to the economy.

If you destroy the economy I can assure you alot more people will die. Funny thing is all those services we consume cost money and have to be paid for. We can only borrow so much before it becomes unaffordable.

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 06:54PM

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

I know identifying clusters and dealing with them is far better than unknown community transmission.

But if you have too many clusters, resources are stretched and you end up with.. a cluster fcuk. Where you arrive at the same point, at a slower rate, than community transmission.

I'd say tonights figures are from 3 clusters, max. I doubt that's stretching much resources.

Atlantic Dawn · 02-08-2020 06:55PM

froog wrote: »

we'll manage. the economy can deal better with a cycling approach of lockdowns, 2-4 weeks lockdown, 2-4 weeks mostly full reopening. the alternative is many more dead people.

The current approach is resulting in mental health issues and people committing suicide, there has also been a reduction in services available for cancer and other serious diseases that kill healthy people with many decades of life left if treated early.

Wild Field 1831 · 02-08-2020 06:55PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Concerned is better than worried or alarmed, we know this. There is no crystal ball but the current number of cases and the average number of contacts can give them an indication. Linking the vast majority of new cases to existing clusters is a very good thing in terms of management of the disease as it shows our systems are working.

Officials choose their words carefully. They don't want to cause panic.

Churchill didn't even use the word worried when facing Nazi invasion!

VinLieger · 02-08-2020 06:56PM

North inner city, talking to several GP friends theres zero social distancing happening and those with symptoms are not isolating

Wild Field 1831 · 02-08-2020 06:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'd say tonights figures are from 3 clusters, max. I doubt that's stretching much resources.

Well if pubs reopen and schools. It doesn't take much to stretch resources. And people won't be truthful about all their contacts.

Our 7 day average cases has doubled in a week.

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 07:01PM

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Well if pubs reopen and schools. It doesn't take much to stretch resources. And people won't be truthful about all their contacts.

Our 7 day average cases has doubled in a week.

Our 7 day average doubled in 1 day because of 1 cluster.

is_that_so · 02-08-2020 07:01PM

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Officials choose their words carefully. They don't want to cause panic.

They use the same language day in day out. After a while you learn to parse it based on prevailing circumstances and can guess at how they feel about things. As we stand now they are giving a sense that they are confident they can deal with the current levels and still allow a modified Phase 4/5 to go ahead.

stephenjmcd · 02-08-2020 07:02PM

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Well if pubs reopen and schools. It doesn't take much to stretch resources. And people won't be truthful about all their contacts.

Our 7 day average cases has doubled in a week.

Of course its doubled, 40 staff in a factory, their contacts, at least 2 direct provision centres riddled now, 19 cases in Laois which is where one of the centres is.

What do you expect to happen when those type of settings get an outbreak of course its doubled, doesn't take much to see there's a few clusters involved here.

The county data tells you how much an affect one factory has had.

The clusters in Limerick etc have been seen before with Killarney, Sligo and Leitrim for example all having clusters before this, they were dealt with.

MD1990 · 02-08-2020 07:04PM

Id say they'll be lockdowns in certain parts of the country if cases continue to rise.

Tuesdays tend to be higher so that could see another big rise maybe even upto 100 cases that day. Hopefully not

ixoy · 02-08-2020 07:04PM

VinLieger wrote: »

North inner city, talking to several GP friends theres zero social distancing happening and those with symptoms are not isolating

Okay, so that's a bit more specific than merely north Dublin.

I'd wonder if they're houses parties or from elsewhere. I do think it'd be useful to call out how clusters are forming - we know it can occur in factories for example, but how much is coming say from larger house parties where social distancing is unlikely to be enforced? The drop in the median age could lean towards it coming from socialising more.

froog · 02-08-2020 07:05PM

Turtwig wrote: »

To pardon the cliché this is an unprecedented situation we simply do not know how the economy would cope either way. The only certainty is that it's fcked. All the jobs stimulus packages in the world aren't going to prevent that.

agree. my solution of a cycling lockdown seems like the best possible solution right now. i'm not saying it's going to save the economy, just that it's better than:

1. full lockdown with no real end (worst possible economic option)
2. no lockdown at all - social distancing & masks only (worst possible lost of life option)

Wild Field 1831 · 02-08-2020 07:06PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of course its doubled, 40 staff in a factory, their contacts, at least 2 direct provision centres riddled now, 19 cases in Laois which is where one of the centres is.

What do you expect to happen when those type of settings get an outbreak of course its doubled, doesn't take much to see there's a few clusters involved here.

See the passive aggressive posting.

Again you seem unable to accept there's a 50/50 chance the numbers could get worse. What is it about this viewpoint you can't handle?

If one contact of these clusters were in the pub you were in for 3 hours a few nights ago? Oh clusters!

Arghus · 02-08-2020 07:06PM

I'm 60% inclined towards thinking they won't budge on the pubs come August 10th.

If they weren't prepared to budge a few weeks ago and cases are higher now than they were then...well, then, I'm not sure how they can logically say open up now.

Saying fck it and figuring out just in time for the upcoming back to school period that you made a massive error is a huge, huge risk. And, as many posters have pointed out, not opening schools or being forced to roll back on it has huge implications far beyond just the schools themselves. There's a huge financial cost in keeping pubs closed, but, potentially rolling back on the school opening plans is a bigger deal overall.

But, this is Ireland, this is Fianna Fáil. They could easily fudge the fck out of this. The vintners will be relentless over the next couple of days. We'll hear a lot from them. A situation that doesn't really please anyone is quite possible.

ixoy · 02-08-2020 07:07PM

froog wrote: »

2. no lockdown at all - social distancing & masks only (worst possible lost of life option)

You mean the approach proposed by the WHO and many other bodies? Yours is better than theirs?

stephenjmcd · 02-08-2020 07:10PM

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

See the passive aggressive posting.

Again you seem unable to accept there's a 50/50 chance the numbers could get worse. What is it about this viewpoint you can't handle?

Oh clusters!

its not passive aggressive at all, you just don't seem to like being told the reasoning behind the increase in the average.

I'm presenting you with a logical reason why the 7 day average has doubled. 40 cases in a factory, multiple contacts, direct provision centres all because of 1 factory. Covid will and has run rampant through direct provision centres for obvious reasons.

Of course numbers can go up or down. Its quite postive that the majority are all linked to clusters, thats not a bad thing.

I don't think you seem to handle how one massive cluster has had such a huge impact.

Whats me being in a pub for 3 hours got to do with a cluster in Kikdare ? If anyone in the pub i was in tested postive then I trust in the public health outbreak teams to do whatever is required as they have with any other cluster.

Turtwig · 02-08-2020 07:12PM

MD1990 wrote: »

Id say they'll be lockdowns in certain parts of the country if cases continue to rise.

Tuesdays tend to be higher so that could see another big rise maybe even upto 100 cases that day. Hopefully not

Can't see how a regional lockdown could work on our tiny island. By the time you've detected cases in one county people will have travelled to multiple. Also it's questionable whether we have personnel to enforce the stringent lockdown that would be required.

lukas8888 · 02-08-2020 07:12PM

froog wrote: »

i know dead people don't contribute much to the economy.

Unfortunately considering the vast majority of the dead were long past their working years on that point only your probably right

02-08-2020 07:12PM

Arghus wrote: »

I'm 60% inclined towards thinking they won't budge on the pubs come August 10th.

If they weren't prepared to budge a few weeks ago and cases are higher now than they were then...well, then, I'm not sure how they can logically say open up now.

Saying fck it and figuring out just in time for the upcoming back to school period that you made a massive error is a huge, huge risk. And, as many posters have pointed out, not opening schools or being forced to roll back on it has huge implications far beyond just the schools themselves. There's a huge financial cost in keeping pubs closed, but, potentially rolling back on the school opening plans is a bigger deal overall.

But, this is Ireland, this is Fianna Fáil. They could easily fudge the fck out of this. The vintners will be relentless over the next couple of days. We'll hear a lot from them. A situation that doesn't really please anyone is quite possible.

If they couldn't justify opening them 3 weeks ago its difficult to see how they could justify it now. Though if it becomes a case of waiting to see how the schools go then you're talking 6+ more weeks of the pubs being closed

froog · 02-08-2020 07:13PM

ixoy wrote: »

You mean the approach proposed by the WHO and many other bodies? Yours is better than theirs?

the WHO published very clear conditions on when a lockdown should be lifted. and it's clear many countries did not meet these conditions when opening back up.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/15/834021103/who-sets-6-conditions-for-ending-a-coronavirus-lockdown?t=1596391877821

manofwisdom · 02-08-2020 07:13PM

If pubs are to reopen on August 10th it will be under strict guidelines. The days of packed pubs won't be seen for a while yet.

02-08-2020 07:14PM

Turtwig wrote: »

Can't see how a regional lockdown could work on our tiny island. By the time you've detected cases in one county people will have travelled to multiple. Also it's questionable whether we have personnel to enforce the stringent lockdown that would be required.

Any merit in having a regional lockdown without major enforcement? The vast majority of people will oblige without the need for Gardai, that in itself could make it worthwhile?

Away With The Fairies · 02-08-2020 07:15PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

its not passive aggressive at all, you just don't seem to like being told the reasoning behind the increase in the average.

I'm presenting you with a logical reason why the 7 day average has doubled. 40 cases in a factory, multiple contacts, direct provision centres all because of 1 factory. Covid will and has run rampant through direct provision centres for obvious reasons.

Of course numbers can go up or down. Its quite postive that the majority are all linked to clusters, thats not a bad thing.

I don't think you seem to handle how one massive cluster has had such a huge impact.

Whats me being in a pub for 3 hours got to do with a cluster in Kikdare ?

Hasn't there also been community transmission? So not all related to current cases or clusters.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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