Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

iguana · 31-07-2020 12:32PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I really hope we look at practical solutions like alternate days to maintain the safety distance. Or even open on Saturdays. Whatever it takes.
Think the health of Children should be prioritised.
This would suit lots of people. Shift work, work from home people.
Adults can stagger their work pattern to match their children staggered school pattern.

That's too much like hard work. This way, schools reopen. If it all works out, then job done. If it doesn't the government gets to say, 'we tried but now unfortunately we have to shut them again, sorry.' I can't see it working out. I did some coaching a couple of weeks ago at a sports summer camp and kids just can't social distance. It's not possible and trying to enforce it worries the hell out of them. With us, it wasn't as bad when they were moving about but once they sat down to eat, it was constant policing of them not being all over each other, stopping them from sharing food or even just licking something another child had just licked.

What Username Guidelines · 31-07-2020 12:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don’t think any changes need to be made to masks. I’ve been in Cork City a couple of times and I’m estimating compliance at 80-90%. You can check out the COVID thread on the Cork City forum and you’ll find people who agree.
I doubt it’s much different anywhere else in the country.

I think people are starting to realise that it's a simple act that can keep numbers low and help us move forward not backwards.

polesheep wrote: »

Thanks for that. What I'm really interested in is whether or not recent localised spikes are leading to hospitalisations. Here in Ireland that hasn't been the case.

Doesn't seem to be anyway. These kinds of spikes and clusters in factories were likely happening in March and April but not being as well traced, or only those with more pronounced symptoms were being tested. My initial reaction last night was surprise, and anxiety that 85 cases is a lot of potential to spread, maybe 4x. But in March they might have found 20 of those, and missed those that did spread. Who knows?

ixoy · 31-07-2020 12:38PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Here in Dublin and I would say there's about 50-60% of people wearing them in shops but a fair amount more on public transport.

I've noticed it seems to be a bit time dependent. So when I went in around what was the old rush hour, compliance was good. It was worse at the weekends and the primary offenders are teenagers / those in early 20s who just seem to be on the trains more then.

I've seen a fair few shabby looking face coverings as well, so I wonder how many are actually washing theirs or if they're just going around with a petri dish on their face.

Be curious to know how frequently people are washing their re-usable face masks. I find it extremely unlikely it's after every use if, for example, they're commuting as it would require two - one for each journey.

Plumbthedepths · 31-07-2020 12:42PM

Hopefully government and public health officials will base school reopening guidelines on European experience and not the hysteria on various SM platforms.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/schools-reopening-coronavirus/2020/07/10/865fb3e6-c122-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html

iguana · 31-07-2020 12:43PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I think you maybe underestimating your sons ability to adapt.
If they changed the school uniform and made everyone wear a tie, do you think he’d need you there 24*7 to explain why he has to wear a tie at school when all the kids around him are wearing a tie?

That's a false equivalency. A tie doesn't cover the face and completely hinder a significant proportion of the nonverbal communication that children especially rely on. I've also done some work as an SNA and some sports coaching and have seen a number of incidences of genuinely small changes causing absolute ructions with some kids. I also know that kids can seem to be accepting of something strange but their anxiety manifests in other way at different times.

I do think it's a shame that there are now indications that visors aren't safe. I'd have happily sent him to school where everyone was wearing a bucket hat with a clear visor over their face.

polesheep · 31-07-2020 12:47PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I think people are starting to realise that it's a simple act that can keep numbers low and help us move forward not backwards.

Doesn't seem to be anyway. These kinds of spikes and clusters in factories were likely happening in March and April but not being as well traced, or only those with more pronounced symptoms were being tested. My initial reaction last night was surprise, and anxiety that 85 cases is a lot of potential to spread, maybe 4x. But in March they might have found 20 of those, and missed those that did spread. Who knows?

I hope that the reduced hospitalisations during spikes aren't either being missed or deliberately glossed over. It's very significant and I'd like to think that it is getting a lot of attention from scientists and health authorities.

ACitizenErased · 31-07-2020 01:03PM

Not the time for 'knee-jerk reaction'

Earlier, Dr Glynn said the sharp increase in cases yesterday is "cause for concern" but reiterated that it is not the time for a knee-jerk reaction.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, he said cases are being watched closely and is hopeful that what is being seen is evidence that the contact tracing system is working "really well".

"We know over the past weeks there have been a number of clusters and what we hope is the numbers yesterday reflect the rapid testing of those clusters and the identification and isolation of those within those clusters."

Yesterday 85 new Covid-19 cases were reported along with one more death of someone who tested positive for the coronavirus.

The overall death toll is 1,763 and the overall total number of cases here has risen to 26,027.

Dr Glynn said that up until earlier this week the Covid-19 trends monitored by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) were looking good.

He said they are never surprised when they see big clusters as they know the virus is really infectious.

He said the high figure of cases yesterday is not a sign that anything was done wrong by people, as "even when people are doing the right things, the virus can spread".

He said to his knowledge all workers have been tested at the pet food factory in Co Kildare, where there was an outbreak, but it is more difficult to avoid spreading the virus if people are sharing living space.

"If a virus gets into the setting like that, it will spread quickly," he added.

Between 30 and 40 new cases are associated with workers at the factory in Naas, which is also connected to outbreaks at two direct provision centres in the midlands.

He said he understands all those living in direct provision centres are being protected and the clusters that were identified are being contained.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0731/1156599-coronavirus-ireland/

podgeandrodge · 31-07-2020 01:05PM

ixoy wrote: »

I've noticed it seems to be a bit time dependent. So when I went in around what was the old rush hour, compliance was good. It was worse at the weekends and the primary offenders are teenagers / those in early 20s who just seem to be on the trains more then.

Be curious to know how frequently people are washing their re-usable face masks. I find it extremely unlikely it's after every use if, for example, they're commuting as it would require two - one for each journey.

I would say there are a lot of people with far mankier Covid storing faces than there were when people had trained themselves not to touch their faces.

stephenjmcd · 31-07-2020 01:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0731/1156599-coronavirus-ireland/

As I said yesterday really quite impressive work from the HSE and the public health teams to get on top of the clusters stemming from the factory quite quickly.

Charles Babbage · 31-07-2020 01:08PM

iguana wrote: »

That's too much like hard work. This way, schools reopen. If it all works out, then job done. If it doesn't the government gets to say, 'we tried but now unfortunately we have to shut them again, sorry.' I can't see it working out. I did some coaching a couple of weeks ago at a sports summer camp and kids just can't social distance. It's not possible and trying to enforce it worries the hell out of them. With us, it wasn't as bad when they were moving about but once they sat down to eat, it was constant policing of them not being all over each other, stopping them from sharing food or even just licking something another child had just licked.

I think we need to be clear in these threads as to whether we are talking about first level or second level. Perhaps even split the threads. Fortunately, younger children genuinely seem both to get this virus less and and transmit it less, so some leeway is possible at first level. Teenagers can transmit it and it is at second level that we need the rules.
It should not be a one size fits all policy

The challenge at primary is keeping kids with any sort of cold etc at home and keeping them at home if adults in the house are quarantined.

At second level you perhaps should be considering two shifts a day and some video transmission, e.g. the morning class get the teacher this week and the afternoon class watch the stream, while the next week they get the real teacher.

The other point is that one size fits all won't work geographically either.
If you are some country town, Belmullet say, and there hasn't been a case within 50Km for weeks then a you might consider running classes as best as practical.
If you are in Naas and there have been 30 cases in the town then perhaps you should not run a school with any compromise on standards, at least for a few weeks. Some of these concepts need to be set out in advance.
We need to accept that more or less uninterrupted schooling may be possible in some country areas but not in urban ones.

speckle · 31-07-2020 01:14PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'd agree 100%. He's a commentator essentially who gets stuff right and wrong. It's a preprint article based on a highly complex simulation. Not sure it would pass muster.

The study about it being airborne is not base on this. It's based on a peer reviewed one carried out in a highly controlled environment. Confirms the aerosol nature of the virus and viable transmission. In nature no less.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69286-3

Here's NY times article that talks about it.
Significant in the who accepts it now and airflow and ventilation very important considerations to minimise risks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/opinion/coronavirus-aerosols.html

This guy much better for actual confirmed info rather than speculation.

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1288534942276780032?s=20
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1288534945129009153?s=20

Gosh, that sent me off on a wave of reading research papers etc last night until I fell asleep.

one of my questions you have partially answered in a following post...I really wanted to see the layout of the two centers including where their air extraction units were placed and to have a look at these windows. thanks.

Yes I agree Ali Nour better than Eric Ding to read. He is also a member of the fas.org. which are a very interesting group... (originating from the manhatten project and now a left leaning scientific lobby group based in Washington DC.)

After reading the nature article and the medrxiv paper. (the paper has yet to be peer reviewed as far as I can see.) But much more detailed public information than the cruise ship one.
Firstly, out of 163 samples 121 were pcr postive yet they were only able to culture live potentially infectious virus from 2.
Some areas tested higher so I agree best not to be sitting by the extractor unit in an small enclosed low ceiling area. Windows open folks just wear an extra jumper.
The formite transfer onto personal items etc in the study is amazing yet due to the levels and as seen in research elsewhere and in the community dosn't seem to have a high infectivity rate. Is this due to hand washing etc?
The toilet testing was interesting I would like to see this followed up in the community i.e. between household with postive cases who have only 1 toilet versus a second used exclusively by postive cases. Again note no live infectious virus cultured from here in this study.

We also need to remember this research took place in a particular area within a hospital occupied by some of the most critically ill covid patients (not all?)...different from a community setting.
The main take away... our covid ward hospital staff need the best PPE.

Second take away I saw on the twitter site of Eric Ding people sending his more shock laiden headline not only to friends but to Irish td's. I hope they also read the reports in full and not have knee jerk reactions.

(I am sure others will note many things I have missed but I think everyone should give a go to actually reading behind the headlines even the abstract, conclusion and study limitations of research papers noting that some times words used in academic medical language may have a different meaning/intrepretation in everyday language. And also read what their peers say in response.)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69286-3

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20041632v2.full.pdf+html

click on preview pdf on medrxiv for the fuller paper ...you dont have to download it as you can read on the page.

speckle · 31-07-2020 01:21PM

FishOnABike wrote: »

Simple answer should be ”No". Unless the bar counter is deep enough so that two people opposite each other (one inside and one outside the counter) can maintain the recommended social distance it is not allowed. I don't know of many 2½ metre deep (allowing for meaning in to sup a pint) bar counters.

One pub I know that does beverages and food installed a screen at the bar between customers and staff with stools apart from each other handy if eating alone and leaves tables for groups.

US2 · 31-07-2020 01:32PM

Any one know, how many new cases have we had in July, and how many of those ended up in hospital?

31-07-2020 01:32PM

ixoy wrote: »

Be curious to know how frequently people are washing their re-usable face masks. I find it extremely unlikely it's after every use if, for example, they're commuting as it would require two - one for each journey.

Mines going up and down off my chin and in and out of my pocket or bag all the time. I throw one in with a load whenever the laundry is being done

political analyst · 31-07-2020 01:54PM

Surely, the only thing that matters regarding a possible legal challenge to Covid restrictions is not whether people think it's right to have the restrictions but whether the case would have a realistic prospect of success - a prospect that Waters and O'Doherty never had, obviously!

If such a case was successful, then what people think wouldn't matter, would it?!

Boggles · 31-07-2020 01:57PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Hopefully government and public health officials will base school reopening guidelines on European experience and not the hysteria on various SM platforms.

They have made the decision and they went with the "Shure it twil be grand" model.

Professor Moriarty · 31-07-2020 01:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Mines going up and down off my chin and in and out of my pocket or bag all the time. I throw one in with a load whenever the laundry is being done

Dunno if you're joking, but that's dangerous for you.

Plumbthedepths · 31-07-2020 02:02PM

Boggles wrote: »

They have made the decision and they went with the "Shure it twil be grand" model.

If they have followed the experience of other European countries that opened their schools it will be fine no matter what the Muppets on SM say. Which I suspect they have as I believe the public health officials have a far higher input than policticans.
'Shure it twil be grand model' , did you think that sounded clever as you typed it?

31-07-2020 02:04PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno if you're joking, but that's dangerous for you.

Same as what most people do as far as I can see.

Boggles · 31-07-2020 02:06PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If they have followed the experience of other European countries that opened their schools it will be fine no matter what the Muppets on SM say. Which I suspect they have as I believe the public health officials have a far higher input than policticans.
'Shure it twil be grand model' , did you think that sounded clever as you typed it?

The experience of other European countries, were alternative days, blended learning 15 to 1 pupil teacher ratios, outdoor teaching, masks, etc.

I assume you have read the plan? I have. None of that is in it.

"'Shure it twil be grand model' is perfectly apt.

Professor Moriarty · 31-07-2020 02:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Same as what most people do as far as I can see.

I agree. But, from your own perspective, you might better off not wearing a mask at all.

alwald · 31-07-2020 02:12PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If they have followed the experience of other European countries that opened their schools it will be fine no matter what the Muppets on SM say. Which I suspect they have as I believe the public health officials have a far higher input than policticans.
'Shure it twil be grand model' , did you think that sounded clever as you typed it?

It seems to me that you aren't aware of the details of how other EU countries dealt with reopening schools.

It's quite disappointing as I expect a better standard from someone spending his life on this thread.

Plumbthedepths · 31-07-2020 02:16PM

Boggles wrote: »

The experience of other European countries, were alternative days, blended learning 15 to 1 pupil teacher ratios, outdoor teaching, masks, etc.

I assume you have read the plan? I have. None of that is in it.

"'Shure it twil be grand model' is perfectly apt.

We already had exceptionally high teacher pupil ratios. So the 1000 teacher recruitment is ambitious and hopefully it can deliver results. Out door learning in one the wettest European countries? How would that work.
Many areas of the country without proper board and access. You look at others experience and adapt to you own unique situation as best you can. It's the sensible path to follow.
Of course the alternative is keep children at home , that will work well I'm sure.

ShineOn7 · 31-07-2020 02:16PM

Any early indications or leaks on today's number?

Loafing Oaf · 31-07-2020 02:16PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If they have followed the experience of other European countries that opened their schools it will be fine n

Is it even possible for most Irish schools to follow that experience, particularly with regard to social distancing in the classroom?

Beanybabog · 31-07-2020 02:18PM

political analyst wrote: »

Surely, the only thing that matters regarding a possible legal challenge to Covid restrictions is not whether people think it's right to have the restrictions but whether the case would have a realistic prospect of success - a prospect that Waters and O'Doherty never had, obviously!

If such a case was successful, then what people think wouldn't matter, would it?!

I was terribly disappointed when they took that case. I would have been very interested in seeing a legit case and the government forced to stand over the decisions and provide all the evidence for it , ie the 2/5km stuff. It was so unfortunate for us as a society that a couple of headbangers took a case and failed to even prepare properly, we really missed out as a society by having no proper legal challenge mounted. And I say that as someone who wasn’t opposed to the action taken- I think everyone whether they supported the measures or not would have benefitted from knowing the proper checks and balances were in place

Boggles · 31-07-2020 02:22PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

We already had exceptionally high teacher pupil ratios. So the 1000 teacher recruitment is ambitious and hopefully it can deliver results. Out door learning in one the wettest European countries? How would that work.
Many areas of the country without proper board and access. You look at others experience and adapt to you own unique situation as best you can. It's the sensible path to follow.
Of course the alternative is keep children at home , that will work well I'm sure.

You were the one banging on about what other countries in Europe did and how we should follow them, I pointed out to you a list of things they did do.

So now you are saying we shouldn't follow them.

That is some short turnaround in opinion to be fair.

bodhrandude · 31-07-2020 02:23PM

When did this become the school thread, I thought there was already a dedicated school thread in the Covid section.

the corpo · 31-07-2020 02:24PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

When did this become the school thread, I thought there was a dedicated school thread in the Covid section.

That thread's gotten too scary to go in!

caveat emptor · 31-07-2020 02:35PM

speckle wrote: »

Gosh, that sent me off on a wave of reading research papers etc last night until I fell asleep.

one of my questions you have partially answered in a following post...I really wanted to see the layout of the two centers including where their air extraction units were placed and to have a look at these windows. thanks.

............

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20041632v2.full.pdf+html

click on preview pdf on medrxiv for the fuller paper ...you dont have to download it as you can read on the page.

Me too! Yeah it is important. Concentration is critical.
This experiment was not in a "normal" hospital ward.

It was in the premier Biocontainment unit in the US.

it has positive airflow and whole host of other containment mitigations.

If they found it in the air in that place a normal ward or a room with little or no airflow would see significant increases in concentration and therefore viability.
Again more research needed.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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