Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

Oranage2 · 31-07-2020 01:29AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Bird flu very worrying, although not easily transmitted to humans it has a huge mortality rate. The 1918 H1N1 was thought to have been a hybrid of Swine/Bird that originated in USA.

I remember when I was doing my ME back in 2014 one of our science lecturers said we overdue a flu pandemic and it’s only matter of time before that happens.

same for Pandemic on Netflix was only released in January of this year and was filmed mostly 2019, funny how I think in the 3rd episode the Scientist in the Middle East was testing bats for corona virus way before corona virus became every day word.

Sars that happened 10 years was also a Coronavirus same as MERS

Charles Babbage · 31-07-2020 01:44AM

political analyst wrote: »

Janet Street-Porter wrote this article about the situation in the UK but I believe her criticisms can also be applied to the Irish government.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8576889/When-did-policy-flattening-curve-ruin-lives.html

This is nonsense, England cannot be accused of trying to eliminate the virus, they opened everything up when they still had a higher level than other European countries.
You need things low on a normal week so that you have some headroom when a blip occurs.

speckle · 31-07-2020 01:58AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Airflow / aircon very dangerous in aerosol transmission.
People on diamond princess didn't leave rooms and got infect.
Air was even recycled.

Meat plants have to keep outside air outside as need to remain cold.
Not sure but they'll be more expensive to run as more outside air changes required
to stave off mass infections. Potential capital expenditure of improving systems so that they are more
efficient when doing this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1288837200621318144?s=20

I am losing respect fast for Eric Ding...all confirmation bias...
Reading to the actual end of the pre print not yet peer reviewed paper ..I get to the limitations of the paper... the very ones I would have thought about after hearing the interviews at the time with the infectious disease expert that was asked to leave the ship regarding the lack of basic infection control and quareenteen measures. Read them for yourselves

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049v1

And regarding him stating that it is highly likely eye transmission is possible.. I just say always read up on all sides of a scientific issue.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228239/

caveat emptor · 31-07-2020 02:05AM

speckle wrote: »

I am losing respect fast for Eric Ding...all confirmation bias...
Reading to the actual end of the pre print not yet peer reviewed paper ..I get to the limitations of the paper...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049v1

And regarding him stating that it is highly likely eye transmission is possible.. I just say always read up on all sides of a scientific issue.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228239/

I'd agree 100%. He's a commentator essentially who gets stuff right and wrong. It's a preprint article based on a highly complex simulation. Not sure it would pass muster.

The study about it being airborne is not base on this. It's based on a peer reviewed one carried out in a highly controlled environment. Confirms the aerosol nature of the virus and viable transmission. In nature no less.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69286-3

Here's NY times article that talks about it.
Significant in the who accepts it now and airflow and ventilation very important considerations to minimise risks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/opinion/coronavirus-aerosols.html

This guy much better for actual confirmed info rather than speculation.

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1288534942276780032?s=20
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1288534945129009153?s=20

s1ippy · 31-07-2020 02:11AM

That study is from ages ago, I'm glad it's been peer reviewed. I wish it had turned out to be untrue but all the indicators pointed to this virus being airborne. The impact this should have on workplaces is staggering (I can think of a few obvious examples). I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were completely brushed aside, given how inconvenient it will make things for businesses and government.

fritzelly · 31-07-2020 02:12AM

speckle wrote: »

I am losing respect fast for Eric Ding...all confirmation bias...
Reading to the actual end of the pre print not yet peer reviewed paper ..I get to the limitations of the paper... the very ones I would have thought about after hearing the interviews at the time with the infectious disease expert that was asked to leave the ship regarding the lack of basic infection control and quareenteen measures. Read them for yourselves

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049v1

And regarding him stating that it is highly likely eye transmission is possible.. I just say always read up on all sides of a scientific issue.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228239/

That guy has thrown so many links out there he is bound to be right some times but totally ignores the 99% of times where he was wrong - he is worse than the Daily Mail

caveat emptor · 31-07-2020 02:16AM

fritzelly wrote: »

That guy has thrown so many links out there he is bound to be right some times but totally ignores the 99% of times where he was wrong - he is worse than the Daily Mail

Sorry thought you meant my links.

Yeah he is un followable of late.

The two major pieces of research which were shocking to me this week was the airborne one and the German heart damage one.

I'd imagine the German will pass review too given the stringent controls and it's simplicity.

That one defo shocked me and requires more research.

The airborne has implications for the importance of social distancing and the wearing of masks where not possible (which we kinda new)

caveat emptor · 31-07-2020 02:21AM

s1ippy wrote: »

That study is from ages ago, I'm glad it's been peer reviewed. I wish it had turned out to be untrue but all the indicators pointed to this virus being airborne. The impact this should have on workplaces is staggering (I can think of a few obvious examples). I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were completely brushed aside, given how inconvenient it will make things for businesses and government.

afaik they can't readily brush aside so easy.

Essentially the current thinking is that aerosol transmission plays a much bigger role than was previously understood.

Take the choir example. 1 passes to 57 or something.

That literally explodes the R value. So although the R value is the average of the number of people who passed it on. The average of 57 + 3 + 3.

They reckon asymptomatic is 50% and the incubation period being 6 days means that a slow burn then fast burn could occur.

I think it'll be taken much more serious in that context. If they can stop super spreading it can be contained. It also has implications for hospitals and PPE.
Needs to be stepped up. Surgical masks won't cut it. They say respirators only needed for "respiratory generating procedures. That was insane to me.

So although it seems scary it confirms what we already knew and forces the world to address it so we can get on with our lives with increasing levels of normalcy.

Really interesting that it was carried out in this place. They weren't taking any chances. If only we knew it sooner we could have protected our HCW better.
They weren't fvcking around.

About the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit

Commissioned in 2005 by the United States Centers for Disease Control, the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit (NBU) provides the first line of treatment for people affected by bio-terrorism or highly hazardous communicable diseases.
The NBU is one of only a few biocontainment units in the United States and is the largest, with up to a 10-bed capacity depending upon the specific infection.

After being quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan for nearly two weeks in February,
six patients who tested positive for novel coronavirus were taken to a state-of-the-art medical facility in Nebraska that was last used for Ebola patients.

Inside the University of Nebraska Medical Center's National Quarantine Unit and Biocontainment Unit,
specially designed rooms ensure the novel coronavirus won't escape through ventilation shafts to other rooms in the building.
Specific materials in the walls and ceiling eliminate the virus' chances of hiding in the shadows when the rooms are disinfected.

Arghus · 31-07-2020 02:34AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

This is nonsense, England cannot be accused of trying to eliminate the virus, they opened everything up when they still had a higher level than other European countries.
You need things low on a normal week so that you have some headroom when a blip occurs.

World renowned infectious disease expert Janet Street Porter.

Deeper Blue · 31-07-2020 03:05AM

The hospital numbers are remarkable considering there were over 500 in hospital just after we started opening up on 18th May.

CFlat · 31-07-2020 07:01AM

Was just listening to Prof Anthony Staines on Newstalk. He was suggesting that we might need to go back to everyone staying at home if the recent numbers are not a glitch. He did say that all businesses will stay open and even the wet pubs should reopen. If it happens it's a bit of a pisser for people hoping to holiday in Ireland next month and tourism in general.

Away With The Fairies · 31-07-2020 07:14AM

CFlat wrote: »

Was just listening to Prof Anthony Staines on Newstalk. He was suggesting that we might need to go back to everyone staying at home if the recent numbers are not a glitch. He did say that all businesses will stay open and even the wet pubs should reopen. If it happens it's a bit of a pisser for people hoping to holiday in Ireland next month and tourism in general.

How will everyone staying at home work with businesses staying open? Businesses need people to work, so people not at home.

CFlat · 31-07-2020 07:25AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

How will everyone staying at home work with businesses staying open? Businesses need people to work, so people not at home.

I think he meant people go to work so the economy continues to function but no unnecessary journeys. That was my take on it.

mandrake04 · 31-07-2020 07:42AM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Sars that happened 10 years was also a Coronavirus same as MERS

Wow you are so smart, obviously a professor.

Renjit · 31-07-2020 08:02AM

Australia recording even more numbers now. Seems like this virus spreads way faster even if the cases are down for some time.

is_that_so · 31-07-2020 08:27AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

How will everyone staying at home work with businesses staying open? Businesses need people to work, so people not at home.

He's a zero COVID guy and sees only one way to do this. Unfortunately, this is just not something they care about.

stephenjmcd · 31-07-2020 08:30AM

Dr Glynn on Morning Ireland re emphasising that now its not the time for knee jerk reactions and that they hope that the 85 cases were found on the basis that the contact tracing system is working really really well in containing the dog food factory outbreak.

stephenjmcd · 31-07-2020 08:31AM

https://twitter.com/morningireland/status/1289099896268689414?s=19

31-07-2020 08:38AM

Vietnam has just had its first death from Covid-19.

Onesea · 31-07-2020 09:01AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Vietnam has just had its first death from Covid-19.

Wow, that's impressive.I wonder what hindsight they had to avoid any casualties thus far?

GooglePlus · 31-07-2020 09:05AM

Renjit wrote: »

Australia recording even more numbers now. Seems like this virus spreads way faster even if the cases are down for some time.

Spreading is what it does best, it's the attribute that takes everyone by surprise.

FishOnABike · 31-07-2020 09:12AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm not sure why they're not recommending masks for teachers I expect a large teaching exodus. They speak about the 2000 teachers who currently aren't teaching who'll be drafted in - there's not a hope in hell they'll want in.

I can't figure why they're not making masks mandatory for all, teachers and pupils, in schools.

You can't go into an almost empty shop for a minute without a mask yet it is expected that schools cram 30ish into relatively small rooms all day every day without any precautions.

There's no sense in the DoES guidelines from a public health point of view.

31-07-2020 09:13AM

Onesea wrote: »

Wow, that's impressive.I wonder what hindsight they had to avoid any casualties thus far?

They were going into action in mid-January before the country even had a case. They said they wouldn't be able to handle a lot of cases so went for an extreme approach.

Knock knock. "You were on that flight two days ago? Well there was a confirmed case on it so you're F1 now. Quarantine facility for two weeks."

Depressing that after three months free from it, control seems to be lost now.

ixoy · 31-07-2020 09:13AM

FishOnABike wrote: »

I can't figure why they're not making masks mandatory for all, teachers and pupils, in schools.

You can't go into an almost empty shop for a minute without a mask yet it is expected that schools cram 30ish into relatively small rooms all day every day without any precaution

While I agree with you on the schools, you most certainly can go into shops without a mask and, last time I was in a supermarket, I was one of the very few wearing a mask.

polesheep · 31-07-2020 09:36AM

El Sueño wrote: »

The hospital numbers are remarkable considering there were over 500 in hospital just after we started opening up on 18th May.

They are, indeed. Newsnight had an item last night on Leicester. Despite a big rise in infections the hospital and mortality figures actually dropped. The officials are at a loss to explain it.

I wonder will we see more of this. Is it a case that in certain locations the weakest have already either survived or passed from the virus and perhaps we could see more and more locations like Leicester popping up? At the moment no one can explain it.

Jinglejangle69 · 31-07-2020 09:37AM

Thought I heard Michael Reid sau there has been a lot of cases recorded overnight.

Could he have that info this early?

polesheep · 31-07-2020 09:40AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Thought I heard Michael Reid sau there has been a lot of cases recorded overnight.

Could he have that info this early?

The numbers that matter are the hospital numbers.

stephenjmcd · 31-07-2020 09:41AM

polesheep wrote: »

They are, indeed. Newsnight had an item last night on Leicester. Despite a big rise in infections the hospital and mortality figures actually dropped. The officials are at a loss to explain it.

I wonder will we see more of this. Is it a case that in certain locations the weakest have already either survived or passed from the virus and perhaps we could see more and more locations like Leicester popping up? At the moment no one can explain it.

Also ties in with the experience of Italy to name just one other country. Italian doctors were flagging weeks ago that they weren't seeing new cases translate into cases that needed hosptial treatment compared to what they experienced at the beginning

stephenjmcd · 31-07-2020 09:42AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Thought I heard Michael Reid sau there has been a lot of cases recorded overnight.

Could he have that info this early?

You mean Paul Reid ?
https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1289084568822255617?s=19

Jinglejangle69 · 31-07-2020 09:45AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

You mean Paul Reid ?
https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1289084568822255617?s=19

Michael Reid LMFM.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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