Possible herd-immunity in Mumbai slums

Bit cynical · 30-07-2020 12:47pm #1

Herd Immunity May Be Developing in Mumbai’s Poorest Areas (Bloomberg)

Around six in ten people living in some of India’s biggest slums have antibodies for the novel coronavirus indicating they’ve recovered from infection, in what could be one of the highest population immunity levels known worldwide.

The findings, from a July serological survey of 6,936 people across three suburbs in India’s financial center of Mumbai, may explain why a steep drop in infections is being seen among the closely-packed population, despite new cases accelerating overall in the hard-hit country.

“Mumbai’s slums may have reached herd immunity,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of India’s National Institute of Epidemiology, and the retired head of one of its premier medical colleges. “If people in Mumbai want a safe place to avoid infection, they should probably go there.”

It will be interesting if true and a potentially hopeful sign for other parts of India.

Jimmy McGill · 30-07-2020 12:49pm

I suppose living in sewage filled streets would make you immune to anything!

Bit cynical · 30-07-2020 12:51pm

Jimmy McGill wrote: »

I suppose living in sewage filled streets would make you immune to anything!

Basically close proximity to others means that it is very hard not to catch whatever is going around.

paw patrol · 30-07-2020 3:51pm

this is interesting

I was wondered if our results in ireland on anti bodies were skewed in some way by social distancing. Hopefully proving the that herd immunity is possible.

It may in some way debunk social distancing and proven boris johnson was initially correct before he lost his bollocks and changed course.

of course, it's only one place so we will see

Cordell · 30-07-2020 3:54pm

He never lost his bollocks, he just listened to people using their brains to make this decision.

is_that_so · 30-07-2020 3:55pm

paw patrol wrote: »

this is interesting

I was wondered if our results in ireland on anti bodies were skewed in some way by social distancing. Hopefully proving the that herd immunity is possible.

It may in some way debunk social distancing and proven boris johnson was initially correct before he lost his bollocks and changed course.

of course, it's only one place so we will see

India is an outlier as everyone else is in the range of 5% to about 15%, including the Swedes with their limited restrictions. Deaths in other countries also affected the oldest cohort, which India doesn't have quite so many of. Social distancing works so no debunking needed.

paw patrol · 30-07-2020 4:08pm

is_that_so wrote: »

India is an outlier as everyone else is in the range of 5% to about 15%, including the Swedes with their limited restrictions. Deaths in other countries also affected the oldest cohort, which India doesn't have quite so many of. Social distancing works so no debunking needed.

I think you missed my point , perhaps I wasnt that clear so apologies.

But social distancing keeps people artificially separated thus lower infections but also lower antibodies. Here we see a place where they couldn't social distance and constant exposure MAY have resulted in much higher levels of antibodies.

hmmm · 30-07-2020 5:21pm

paw patrol wrote: »

Here we see a place where they couldn't social distance and constant exposure MAY have resulted in much higher levels of antibodies.

hmmm I'm not sure you know how antibodies work.

Younger age group, lots of outdoor living in strong sun diluting the virus, likely to be under-recorded deaths. I'm not surprised the IFR is low, bit surprised so many had it (just shows that it isn't going to stop at 20% like some claim), and in a way it's partly good news as India may not need as many vaccines as it thinks.

I don't think the results are of much use to the West, with older populations, a lot more indoor mixing and air conditioning.

Possible herd-immunity in Mumbai slums

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