Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

plodder · 18-07-2020 09:56PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

21 from nearly 10,000 tests is actually not a bad number at all now that I think about it

Where can one get this information about the actual number of tests done per day?

ACitizenErased · 18-07-2020 09:59PM

plodder wrote: »

Where can one get this information about the actual number of tests done per day?

Ireland's COVID19 Data Hub

Humilde · 18-07-2020 10:04PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

I wish people would stop going on about the 'second wave' tbh, it's just a meaningless buzzword at this point.

We are nowhere near a second wave at the moment and it would take a week or three of utter negligence to get us there

Is it possible to forma club of common sense people? There must be more of you out there. These histericals are ruling the roost at the moment.

plodder · 18-07-2020 10:16PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Ireland's COVID19 Data Hub

Thanks. I guess it depends on the distribution of the 21 cases. How many are related to each other basically? If they were all related that would be good. If none of them are, that would be terrible. Not sure if we are getting that information ..

Santy2015 · 18-07-2020 10:29PM

De Gascun on Danny boys tweets.
https://twitter.com/cilliandegascun/status/1284610059243270147?s=21

caveat emptor · 18-07-2020 11:03PM

Good comparison to tourism in both countries. I’m not advocating either way. I think it’s inevitable that’s this strategy will be adopted. We’ll probably have to go through a second lockdown to garner the political will though.

https://twitter.com/gabrielscally/status/1284546066327777281?s=21

bb1234567 · 18-07-2020 11:10PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

De Gascun on Danny boys tweets.
https://twitter.com/cilliandegascun/status/1284610059243270147?s=21

I don't see how it could be called depressing yet, there's hardly any concrete trends emerging yet. I don't know what figure he has used for Spain as the worldometer one includes antibody tests, so a bit of a question mark there. Many Eastern Euro countries like Romania, Ukrain never particularly got a handle on their outbreaks so no surprises there. And apart from that, the changes either increases or decreases are overall pretty minuscule for the most part.

Leftwaffe · 18-07-2020 11:16PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

De Gascun on Danny boys tweets.
https://twitter.com/cilliandegascun/status/1284610059243270147?s=21

Does anyone know who Danny Boy is? Some good info in his tweets but I'm always suspicious of it being FFG propaganda.

Santy2015 · 18-07-2020 11:24PM

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Does anyone know who Danny Boy is? Some good info in his tweets but I'm always suspicious of it being FFG propaganda.

He talks sense though. He calls out bluffers like McKenna.
He’s positive as well. If he was a FFG he’d be throwing a few negatives our way from time to time.

Wolf359f · 18-07-2020 11:25PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Good comparison to tourism in both countries. I’m not advocating either way. I think it’s inevitable that’s this strategy will be adopted. We’ll probably have to go through a second lockdown to garner the political will though.

https://twitter.com/gabrielscally/status/1284546066327777281?s=21

He states we can't have quarantine because of tourism.... WTF?
Even the government is advocating for tourists to stay away, it's not like they are encouraging tourists to come.
I notice he mentions visitor days as the Irish tourism figures are nearly 3x as many as NZ. Shame he doesn't also mention the total spend per person.
We always hear Ireland is expensive, so it would be nice to see the difference.
He just seems to pull figures to suite his agenda and offer no solutions.
Reminds me of a certain political party. Play to the crowd.

I've yet to hear a credible solution to being able to quarantine all people entering the country for 2 weeks and build and man a border up north. Maybe we can make those in quarantine build a border wall?

Wolf359f · 18-07-2020 11:33PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

De Gascun on Danny boys tweets.
https://twitter.com/cilliandegascun/status/1284610059243270147?s=21

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Does anyone know who Danny Boy is? Some good info in his tweets but I'm always suspicious of it being FFG propaganda.

I'm curious where he gets the data from, he doesn't mention.
I would assume the source he's using is recent cases only and not including any antibody testing.
It's not as simple as pulling figures from worldometer.
Looking at the ECDC graph, the EU looks stable, considering most of europe is opening back up.
novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-07-18.png?itok=_MRydMXx

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-07-18.png?itok=_MRydMXx

Leftwaffe · 18-07-2020 11:37PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

He talks sense though. He calls out bluffers like McKenna.
He’s positive as well. If he was a FFG he’d be throwing a few negatives our way from time to time.

Ah yeah he's a good flow to be fair. I'm just being skeptical.

He puts a huge effort into threads. So much so it leads me to believe its his job. I could be wrong of course. I'm just very curious about his identity, where he gets his info from, etc.

Jizique · 18-07-2020 11:41PM

Boggles wrote: »

Fúck them.

No private company gets to dictate public health policy during a once in a generation global pandemic.

The whole country can't suffer because Michael wants more profits.

Yes; all business meetings are f@cked due to wfh and nobody will be flying over for football matches or stags - little to do with green lists at this stage, demand is just not coming back until those things I mentioned and more return

caveat emptor · 18-07-2020 11:45PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

He states we can't have quarantine because of tourism.... WTF?
Even the government is advocating for tourists to stay away, it's not like they are encouraging tourists to come.
I notice he mentions visitor days as the Irish tourism figures are nearly 3x as many as NZ. Shame he doesn't also mention the total spend per person.
We always hear Ireland is expensive, so it would be nice to see the difference.
He just seems to pull figures to suite his agenda and offer no solutions.
Reminds me of a certain political party. Play to the crowd.

I've yet to hear a credible solution to being able to quarantine all people entering the country for 2 weeks and build and man a border up north. Maybe we can make those in quarantine build a border wall?

If you read it he is saying "I've been told I can't compare......"
He then goes on to explain how they are comparable in terms of room nights.
I like your argument about Ireland being expensive or a rip off some may say. Do you think NZ is cheap?

The hotels are empty. Start there I'd say. As I said when the cost of rolling lockdowns and public fatigue / fear is factored in, in six months time this will be a solution.

The easiest is to do it is at UK and Ireland level. No need for us to police "the border" or get anyone to build a wall.

Of course this will make a certain industry who shalt no be named very unhappy.
When triaging a patient sometimes you have to sacrifice a limb for the good of the whole.

Wolf359f · 19-07-2020 12:03AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

If you read it he is saying "I've been told I can't compare......"
He then goes on to explain how they are comparable in terms of room nights.
I like your argument about Ireland being expensive or a rip off some may say. Do you think NZ is cheap?

The hotels are empty. Start there I'd say. As I said when the cost of rolling lockdowns and public fatigue / fear is factored in, in six months time this will be a solution.

The easiest is to do it is at UK and Ireland level. No need for us to police "the border" or get anyone to build a wall.

Of course this will make a certain industry who shalt no be named very unhappy.
When triaging a patient sometimes you have to sacrifice a limb for the good of the whole.

I've no idea if NZ is cheap, but of course we always hear Ireland is super expensive. Also not included in those figures is how many Irish people fly back into Ireland that live abroad. I'd hazard a guess there's a lot more weekend traffic/day traffic than NZ.
What I mean is there's a lot more people travelling for essential travel than into NZ. We can just shut down the airports.

On the empty hotels, that's tough, reading here about american tourists, it sounds like hotels are full. But we have a total hotel bed capacity of 148,000, based on a 14 day quarantine, that's a maximum of say 10,000 people be allowed enter Ireland on any given day.

We've heard transport unions saying they can't police the mandatory mask policy, who will police the quarantine in hotels? Not the staff obviously.
There's about 800 hotels to police, so even 1 police officer, we'll probably need 2 for health and safety (in case one needs to use the toilet etc...) and a maximum working week of 40hrs, that's 8 guards per hotel, so only need an extra 6400 guards to sort that out. So half the police force!

Always_Running · 19-07-2020 12:03AM

Santy2015 wrote: »

He talks sense though. He calls out bluffers like McKenna.
He’s positive as well. If he was a FFG he’d be throwing a few negatives our way from time to time.

Love how he schools that right wing attention seeking doctor who loves to praise Swedens approach over Irelands.

Non solum non ambulabit · 19-07-2020 12:17AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Good comparison to tourism in both countries. I’m not advocating either way. I think it’s inevitable that’s this strategy will be adopted. We’ll probably have to go through a second lockdown to garner the political will though.

https://twitter.com/gabrielscally/status/1284546066327777281?s=21

So we have 3 times as many visitors. We also have millions of Irish people taking multiple holidays a year to USA and Europe, weekend breaks etc. Duration of stay is the least important number.

AlmightyCushion · 19-07-2020 12:29AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

So we have 3 times as many visitors. We also have millions of Irish people taking multiple holidays a year to USA and Europe, weekend breaks etc. Duration of stay is the least important number.

This. Going to somewhere in Europe for a long weekend here is normal. I can't imagine it's anywhere near as common in New Zealand.

caveat emptor · 19-07-2020 12:33AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I've no idea if NZ is cheap, but of course we always hear Ireland is super expensive. Also not included in those figures is how many Irish people fly back into Ireland that live abroad. I'd hazard a guess there's a lot more weekend traffic/day traffic than NZ.
What I mean is there's a lot more people travelling for essential travel than into NZ. We can just shut down the airports.

On the empty hotels, that's tough, reading here about american tourists, it sounds like hotels are full. But we have a total hotel bed capacity of 148,000, based on a 14 day quarantine, that's a maximum of say 10,000 people be allowed enter Ireland on any given day.

We've heard transport unions saying they can't police the mandatory mask policy, who will police the quarantine in hotels? Not the staff obviously.
There's about 800 hotels to police, so even 1 police officer, we'll probably need 2 for health and safety (in case one needs to use the toilet etc...) and a maximum working week of 40hrs, that's 8 guards per hotel, so only need an extra 6400 guards to sort that out. So half the police force!

Look I get it if I were working in that industry I'd be super negative about the idea too. We are advised not to go on holiday yet we allow people to go on holidays here? Do you not find that hypocritical? Last time I looked hotels were at 11% capacity. Irish people returning do not need to stay in a hotel as can quarantine at home. Why are you not asking how New Zealand did it instead of just saying outright it can't be done. My guess is you are financially dependent on airports being open to anyone who wants to come in.

If you make quarantine mandatory and 2 weeks at your expense. The numbers of people travelling for the craic will fall off a cliff so your estimate about guards and hotels are bullsh!t.

In the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment this strategy will be adopted. It's the only logical conclusion. When we see case numbers it's the aggregate of all the complex interactions that occur between people and environments. On the micro level at which this works, nothing has changed. When we start going back to normal cases will tick up.

How this virus spreads hasn't changed. The only reason we got it under control is that people....

isolated
limited travel
lots of public health measures

If you are proposing we all jet off on a two week holiday and allow every buba and nancey from the most infected country on the planet in then cases are going to tick up. Going back to work in the office and school is going to cause issues.

We are coming into the autumn where viral respiratory diseases such as the flu start to peak. Why do you think this is any different.

"If you hear hooves you should think horses , not zebras"

caveat emptor · 19-07-2020 12:51AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

So we have 3 times as many visitors. We also have millions of Irish people taking multiple holidays a year to USA and Europe, weekend breaks etc. Duration of stay is the least important number.

Redundant point.
We are advised against non essential travel.
Weekend breaks and multiple holidays to USA and Europe are non essential.
As for allowing people to holiday here from countries where incidence is higher
is asking for trouble.

How do you think thins thing spread? Why has quarantine existed for thousands of years? China didn't only export goods and services in February.

podgeandrodge · 19-07-2020 12:58AM

What are people's views on masks in supermarkets - supermarkets don't appear to have been a source of any significant transmission, but public opinion has shifted to wearing masks in all shops regardless. Yes, masks might protect people from spreading it from a cough/sneeze etc. but in terms of its importance in supermarkets, what are people's views of the impact of wearing masks on overall cases specifically relating to supermarkets where people generally have scope to distance?

YellowBucket · 19-07-2020 12:59AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Good comparison to tourism in both countries. I’m not advocating either way. I think it’s inevitable that’s this strategy will be adopted. We’ll probably have to go through a second lockdown to garner the political will though.

https://twitter.com/gabrielscally/status/1284546066327777281?s=21

That makes absolutely no sense.

There are vastly more trips, even his own tweet says that. All visitor days says is that your average trip to NZ is much longer, which would be because it's MUCH more remote and much more expensive to get to.

Ireland's a hop skip and a jump away from all of Europe. It's under two hours flying time to a rake of western European cities, including London and Paris.

The only way we could achieve this is by suspending the CTA and that comes with enormous political and economic consequences, particularly at the moment. Even if we did, it would mean closing the Northern Ireland border which is more or less an impossibility.

caveat emptor · 19-07-2020 01:04AM

YellowBucket wrote: »

That makes absolutely no sense.

There are vastly more trips, even his own tweet says that. All visitor days says is that your average trip to NZ is much longer, which would be because it's MUCH more remote and much more expensive to get to.

Ireland's a hop skip and a jump away from all of Europe. It's under two hours flying time to a rake of western European cities, including London and Paris.

Room nights is a proxy for value of the sector. It's industry standard.
Whether trips are short or long doesn't change that the main cost is accommodation. Therefore it's a good indicator for value.
"These cows are close but those are far away"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

caveat emptor · 19-07-2020 01:05AM

YellowBucket wrote: »

That makes absolutely no sense.

There are vastly more trips, even his own tweet says that. All visitor days says is that your average trip to NZ is much longer, which would be because it's MUCH more remote and much more expensive to get to.

Ireland's a hop skip and a jump away from all of Europe. It's under two hours flying time to a rake of western European cities, including London and Paris.

The only way we could achieve this is by suspending the CTA and that comes with enormous political and economic consequences, particularly at the moment. Even if we did, it would mean closing the Northern Ireland border which is more or less an impossibility.

Again if you read what I said.
The UK and Ireland approach.
No need to suspend CTA.

YellowBucket · 19-07-2020 01:07AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Again if you read what I said.
The UK and Ireland approach.
No need to suspend CTA.

The UK isn't going to take that approach due to desperately trying to not upset the madman that's running the USA while having cut itself off from its main export markets and supply chains by January 2021 in a titanic feat of arrogance.

So, that's simply not going to happen. I mean Boris Johnson was playing this thing down until he literally ended up in ICU himself and even after that experience he's still more or less playing it down.

If you think the current batch of Tories are suddenly going to start behaving sensibly, you're in for serious disappointment.

In a parallel universe where the UK was run by sensible people, yes it might happen. In this world, not a hope unfortunately.

caveat emptor · 19-07-2020 01:12AM

YellowBucket wrote: »

The UK isn't going to take that approach due to desperately trying to not upset the madman that's running the USA while having cut itself off from its main export markets and supply chains by January 2021 in a titanic feat of arrogance.

So, that's simply not going to happen. I mean Boris Johnson was playing this thing down until he literally ended up in ICU himself and even after that experience he's still more or less playing it down.

If you think the current batch of Tories are suddenly going to start behaving sensibly, you're in for serious disappointment.

I'm saying in 6 months.
The economic hardship that will be felt will be such that a common approach will be lesser of two evils. Logically most people aren't holidaying so the industry will slowly wilt anyway if this goes on 2 / 3 years.
In fairness to Boris he mentioned preparing for the worst this winter which is more than our lot.

19-07-2020 01:23AM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What are people's views on masks in supermarkets - supermarkets don't appear to have been a source of any significant transmission, but public opinion has shifted to wearing masks in all shops regardless. Yes, masks might protect people from spreading it from a cough/sneeze etc. but in terms of its importance in supermarkets, what are people's views of the impact of wearing masks on overall cases specifically relating to supermarkets where people generally have scope to distance?

Do our views even matter? Is your opinion changeable? Mine isn't.

fritzelly · 19-07-2020 01:24AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Room nights is a proxy for value of the sector. It's industry standard.
Whether trips are short or long doesn't change that the main cost is accommodation. Therefore it's a good indicator for value.
"These cows are close but those are far away"

Room nights is only relevant on an hotel by hotel basis - meaningless using it to compare countries - it is only a proxy for the value of that particular hotel

Average stay also a meaningless factor - we have LOADS of people come here from the UK for a weekend, even other countries like Spain. I wouldn't be flying to NZ for a weekend and neither would any other country except maybe Australia

Only meaningful number in that tweet is the number of visitors - which says it all

caveat emptor · 19-07-2020 01:39AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Room nights is only relevant on an hotel by hotel basis - meaningless using it to compare countries - it is only a proxy for the value of that particular hotel

Average stay also a meaningless factor - we have LOADS of people come here from the UK for a weekend, even other countries like Spain. I wouldn't be flying to NZ for a weekend and neither would any other country except maybe Australia

Only meaningful number in that tweet is the number of visitors - which says it all

It is comparable and you can't do maths. I'll help you out.
Ok loads of people come here from UK for weekend.

So say 20 people come here for weekend. (3 days)

That's 20 X 3 = 60 visitor days.

In New Zealand. 3 people go there for 20 days.

That's 3 X 20 = 60 visitor days.

i.e exactly the same.

New Zealand had 74 million visitor days.
Ireland 78 million visitor days.
How the fvck are they not comparable?

fritzelly · 19-07-2020 01:49AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

It is comparable and you can't do maths. I'll help you out.
Ok loads of people come here from UK for weekend.

So say 20 people come here for weekend. (3 days)

That's 20 X 3 = 60 visitor days.

In New Zealand. 3 people go there for 20 days.

That's 3 X 20 = 60 visitor days.

i.e exactly the same.

New Zealand had 74 million visitor days.
Ireland 78 million visitor days.
How the fvck are they not comparable?

I dunno - maybe something to do with the actual number of people

Jaysus

11.2 million people is a BIGGER number of REAL people than 3.9 million people
You know its like saying this cow is bigger than this cow because it is actually bigger

He should stick to making up statistics for the UK

And the YT video is tiring - more an insult in every post saying everyone you reply to is stupid.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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