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Property Market 2020

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    #10472
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Nice one

    “The quality of life that I have here is higher than I would have in Ireland. My rent here is so low its a joke. I’m about to move into a 90 square metre [just under 1,000sq ft] apartment for €950 per month with my boyfriend and dogs. It’s three times what I’m paying now and three times less than I’d pay back home.”

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/my-rent-here-is-so-low-it-s-a-joke-1.4298379

    That how everything is starting guys !
    Media preparing you for changes in Ireland

    It's fake news, German girls are obsessed with sex, they drink the wrong beer, football is their main sport and people save instead of spending their money. It's a kip.


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    #10473
    Top Dog
    Registered Users Posts: 4,160 ✭✭✭Top Dog


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Nice one

    “The quality of life that I have here is higher than I would have in Ireland. My rent here is so low its a joke. I’m about to move into a 90 square metre [just under 1,000sq ft] apartment for €950 per month with my boyfriend and dogs. It’s three times what I’m paying now and three times less than I’d pay back home.”

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/my-rent-here-is-so-low-it-s-a-joke-1.4298379

    That how everything is starting guys !
    Media preparing you for changes in Ireland

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-lending-hit-lowest-level-on-record-in-may-amid-covid-19-lockdown-39357189.html

    Properties still flying above asking ? No problem this will be "fixed" soon !
    Ah here. She's been in Germany 23 years, with steady work, but somehow she's still renting?!


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    #10474
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Top Dog wrote: »
    Ah here. She's been in Germany 23 years, with steady work, but somehow she's still renting?!

    It is common to rent for a long term in Germany. This is a consequence of institutional investors such as pension funds owning the property. They seek a wealth preservation with stable occupation.

    In Ireland we have individual landlords crying about changing curtains or changing the paint colour in an apartment. It's outragoues and completely OTT control which you don't get with a pension fund as your landlord who just want occupation. Far better for most parties to have institutional landlords here, we just need Irish politicians to ask the Germans how to implement it.


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    #10475
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Nice one

    “The quality of life that I have here is higher than I would have in Ireland. My rent here is so low its a joke. I’m about to move into a 90 square metre [just under 1,000sq ft] apartment for €950 per month with my boyfriend and dogs. It’s three times what I’m paying now and three times less than I’d pay back home.”

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/my-rent-here-is-so-low-it-s-a-joke-1.4298379

    That how everything is starting guys !
    Media preparing you for changes in Ireland

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-lending-hit-lowest-level-on-record-in-may-amid-covid-19-lockdown-39357189.html

    Properties still flying above asking ? No problem this will be "fixed" soon !

    Why wouldn’t mortgage lending be low in may? During a pandemic. What would you expect? I thought you didn’t believe the media as it was all lies? If so why do you just post links to newspaper articles? If things are going to get so bad which bank will give you a mortgage to purchase a property? If you’re a carpenter will you have a job?


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    #10476
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Why wouldn’t mortgage lending be low in may? During a pandemic. What would you expect? I thought you didn’t believe the media as it was all lies? If so why do you just post links to newspaper articles? If things are going to get so bad which bank will give you a mortgage to purchase a property? If you’re a carpenter will you have a job?

    Personally I think there will be further actions against land lords in Ireland.This "German story" appeared not just for "fun".The media try create " opinion".As I said before all money which been given by government will have to be paid back.

    I changed my job in 2019 in less affected area getting prepared to recession.I knew about recession coming in 2017.

    I have additional incomes and during last recession I made a lot more money than doing carpentry.Trough this recession I gonna do the same with bigger amount of money what will give me better profit I hope.

    Always hope for good and prepare for worse.


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    #10477
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Why wouldn’t mortgage lending be low in may? During a pandemic. What would you expect? I thought you didn’t believe the media as it was all lies? If so why do you just post links to newspaper articles? If things are going to get so bad which bank will give you a mortgage to purchase a property? If you’re a carpenter will you have a job?

    Well if it was just because of lockdown why did mortgage approvals take a further harp decline in May and June compared to march and April?


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    #10478
    riclad
    Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    It could take 2 years to create a vaccine. There, s no end in sight to the covid crisis in America.
    Many hospitals are 90 per cent full dealing with new case, s . They are running low on basic ppe equipment.
    The longer the crisis continues the more it will effect the economy here.
    1000,s of jobs in tourism here are at risk as there's very few people travelling on planes at the moment.
    Some people may choose to wait and see if prices fall more before buying any property


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    #10479
    riclad
    Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    It could take 2 years to create a vaccine. There, s no end in sight to the covid crisis in America.
    Many hospitals are 90 per cent full dealing with new case, s . They are running low on basic ppe equipment.
    The longer the crisis continues the more it will effect the economy here.
    1000,s of jobs in tourism here are at risk as there's very few people travelling on planes at the moment.
    Some people may choose to wait and see if prices fall more before buying any property


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    #10480
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hubertj wrote:
    Why will investment properties flood the market? People are Saying mortgage payments can be 50% less than rents? What am I missing?


    Who rents
    Whom are most affected by the recession
    Who will pay their high rents when their job is gone
    Who will pay the rent for the closed or half capacity business
    90% of small business rent there premises


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    #10481
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Who rents
    Whom are most affected by the recession
    Who will pay their high rents when their job is gone
    Who will pay the rent for the closed or half capacity business
    90% of small business rent there premises

    And yet people still need to live somewhere you cant run away from the virus


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    #10482
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Reversal wrote: »
    Well if it was just because of lockdown why did mortgage approvals take a further harp decline in May and June compared to march and April?

    Because of a global pandemic, people on wage subsidy etc, consumer sentiment. That’s my point, it’s no surprise there was a significant decrease.


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    #10483
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Who rents
    Whom are most affected by the recession
    Who will pay their high rents when their job is gone
    Who will pay the rent for the closed or half capacity business
    90% of small business rent there premises

    My point\question is that when rents fall they will still be higher than mortgage payments if there is a 50% difference. Or was 1 of the experts on here spoofing when they said that? Are rents going to fall by more than 50%?

    And if someone isn’t going to rent where will they live? Social housing? Oh wait....


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    #10484
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    fliball123 wrote: »
    And yet people still need to live somewhere you cant run away from the virus

    But remember, travel is massively curtailed until it looks like early next year at the earliest. Evictions cannot occur during the protection period as well. There is perhaps an expectation that arrears can be claimed but if someone is looking for an eviction deferral you won't get any arrears out of them.

    If people needed somewhere to live and therefore there is perpetual demand for propertiee we would never have boom and bust in property. It is such a moot point to make in the context of prices rising and falling.


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    #10485
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Hubertj wrote: »
    My point\question is that when rents fall they will still be higher than mortgage payments if there is a 50% difference. Or was 1 of the experts on here spoofing when they said that? Are rents going to fall by more than 50%?

    And if someone isn’t going to rent where will they live? Social housing? Oh wait....
    Well they can't be evicted so they live rent free in the property.


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    #10486
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 943 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Hubertj wrote: »
    My point\question is that when rents fall they will still be higher than mortgage payments if there is a 50% difference. Or was 1 of the experts on here spoofing when they said that? Are rents going to fall by more than 50%?

    It looks like rents have come back now ~17% since covid struck (that is based on the stats from the propertypin). You might be able to get another couple of % off as well from the asking where I think 6 months ago you would have been laughed at if you requested it.

    Will rents continue to drop? I really am in two minds on this. One part is that they will continue to drop as more people start to leave Dublin and also that it looks like 3rd level will only be back at 50% this autumn but on the other hand I think many who left Ireland in early March will start to come back in September.

    I have had to make some trips to parts of Dublin I had not visited in a long while, I was very surprised by the amount and size of some developments which are in the works (e.g. Clancy Quay near Heuston Station). It will be interesting to see if they look to command the same rents as before.


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    #10487
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    fliball123 wrote: »
    And yet people still need to live somewhere you cant run away from the virus

    Lot of foreign workers came here. Lot of them will go home now. So no,they don't need to live in Ireland.


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    #10488
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,207 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Personally I think there will be further actions against land lords in Ireland.This "German story" appeared not just for "fun".The media try create " opinion".As I said before all money which been given by government will have to be paid back.

    I changed my job in 2019 in less affected area getting prepared to recession.I knew about recession coming in 2017.

    I have additional incomes and during last recession I made a lot more money than doing carpentry.Trough this recession I gonna do the same with bigger amount of money what will give me better profit I hope.

    Always hope for good and prepare for worse.

    4-6 years back when legislation was approved for Reit's we heard they would be the dogs ballo#. They force rents down and wipe out smaller landlords. Most Reit's are as or more expensive than original investment landlords. I predicted this at that time.

    Pension investment funds in Germany etc have these buildings for decades, as well often tenants responsible for maintaining the property. Most local taxes are payable by tenant rather than LL, generally it a different environments with easier eviction in case of non-payment and better recourse in case of damage.

    As I have said before no two recessions are the same. I have weathered 2 really bad ones and 2-4 other economic downturns.

    If you look at it lads predicting a collapse are flipping and flopping all over the place, rents are too high for tenants, if they drop 10&20%, you see an exit of LL"s, Reit's are the way that renting will go, Reit's will go bankrupt, tenants will stop paying rents because of no eviction threat. Jobs are going all over the place and people will not be able to get mortgage's but they will be unaffected.

    Bla, bla,bla,...........

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #10489
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    That being said, Eoin O'Broin is most likely writing housing policies that will be implemented in Ireland in the next 5 years. We all better familiarise ourselves with his book!


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    #10490
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,207 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    That being said, Eoin O'Broin is most likely writing housing policies that will be implemented in Ireland in the next 5 years. We all better familiarise ourselves with his book!

    If commercial building slows down and I expect it will, I can see house building increase and as well I can see a substantial social and affordable house building take place.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #10491
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    If commercial building slows down and I expect it will, I can see house building increase and as well I can see a substantial social and affordable house building take place.

    It's low hanging fruit for the new government to stimulate the homebuilding and the social homebuilding sector. Helps housing and encourages economic activity. The tripartite government know that the majority of the public are not in a worse position due to covid so still have the luxury of expecting their reasons to vote to be listened to (ie housing and health). They need to get on with it!

    If commercial building slows, there'll be plenty of labour ready and rearing to build homes instead.


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    #10492
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,207 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    It's low hanging fruit for the new government to stimulate the homebuilding and the social homebuilding sector. Helps housing and encourages economic activity. The tripartite government know that the majority of the public are not in a worse position due to covid so still have the luxury of expecting their reasons to vote to be listened to (ie housing and health). They need to get on with it!

    If commercial building slows, there'll be plenty of labour ready and rearing to build homes instead.

    I agree it's low hanging fruit. I also agree with the government's/ central bank reluctance to encourage inflation within the sector by changing loan guidelines over the last 2-3 years. While Dublin may see a small correction prices in the rest of the country are not above building costs.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #10493
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hubertj wrote:
    And if someone isn’t going to rent where will they live? Social housing? Oh wait....


    And where is the endgame?

    The State is up to its eyeballs in debt.

    Rents were very challenging at the start of the year, what will lock down and prolonged social distancing do

    Small business and large bricks and mortar retail will become unviable
    Rents will have to drop significantly or else we are in for mass closures,

    WFH puts pressure on office stock

    Mass closures leads to mass job losses for rent paying tenants.
    Where will the state get the money to support further hap applicants


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    #10494
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,438 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    If I see drops of 10% thats my trigger point.
    Im buying then, if there is any supply. Too long have I waited :) Time to get off the fence

    Prices would have been 10 percent lower than now two or three years ago depending on area. Why didn't you buy then?


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    #10495
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,207 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    kippy wrote: »
    Prices would have been 10 percent lower than now two or three years ago depending on area. Why didn't you buy then?

    When house prices were 30-50% lower in 2011 lads taught they would go lower, when prices started to rise after that they were convinced that there would be a double dip. It was obivious from late 2012 that this would not happen but people who missed the boat refused to buy as they taught rents would remain low. Now they have paid 4-8 years rent and are still looking for that bargain

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #10496
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    When house prices were 30-50% lower in 2011 lads taught they would go lower, when prices started to rise after that they were convinced that there would be a double dip. It was obivious from late 2012 that this would not happen but people who missed the boat refused to buy as they taught rents would remain low. Now they have paid 4-8 years rent and are still looking for that bargain

    Meh.in the meantime maybe the switched jobs in different places to get higher pay. Sound like sour grapes in here now prices are falling.oh well!


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    #10497
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    smurgen wrote: »
    Lot of foreign workers came here. Lot of them will go home now. So no,they don't need to live in Ireland.

    Lot of Irish were living abroad a lot of them have come so they will need a place to live


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    #10498
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Lot of Irish were living abroad a lot of them have come so they will need a place to live

    Like the healthcare workers who came back temporarily to answer Ireland's call? Those poor folk can't get work now.


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    #10499
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,207 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    smurgen wrote: »
    Meh.in the meantime maybe the switched jobs in different places to get higher pay. Sound like sour grapes in here now prices are falling.oh well!

    Well if we go into the recession some are posting about switching jobs and higher pay will not be in the pipeline. Why would I have sour grapes I own a house and have two rental properties none of which I intend to sell. If house fall I might buy another.....my children are of house buying age. I have posted that while there may be a price drop it will not exceed 10%.

    And there is no sign of house prices falling selling prices are exceeding asking prices

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #10500
    Pivot Eoin
    Registered Users Posts: 564 ✭✭✭Pivot Eoin


    Have to disagree with those saying there is no evidence of any falling prices.

    Yes we do still see high quality properties fetching their market value - that's expected with only serious buyers remaining in the June/July market after COVID Drop Offs.

    However if you were looking at something that's a decent size, but requires a bit of work (Not Complete redo) then I've definitely seen drops in both selling and asking prices over the past 4-6 weeks with the market having resumed. Not gargantuan drops, but maybe 3-5% drops in asking, with far less properties being subjected to bidding wars.

    I can only say this is true for the area I'm looking in which is SCD/D18 area. Been tracking all properties online since Jan and noticing both asking price drops on a lot of properties, as well as then seeing deals being done a good bit under asking on lots of sold properties going up on the PPR every Wednesday.

    I'm not necessarily saying this is going to be indicative of a wider trend, but people saying that across the board prices are remaining the same are probably not looking at most areas in detail. There are drops, just depends what you want.


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    #10501
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,088 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Villa05 wrote: »
    The best advise I got when I was buying was to look at houses that were built during a recession as the buyers were scarce the quality had to be good to achieve a sale
    The opposite is the case during a boom. Throw up anything and the buyer will come to you

    Ah so you did but eventually, I presume at the exact bottom of the market? Would be interested to know what metrics you used to decide when it was ok to buy?

    That advice is as useless as it is generic. I'm not bit a house built in the 80s over one built last year.

    I also think you misunderstood what I mean by "bad house"!


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