Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Non solum non ambulabit · 09-07-2020 11:49AM

YellowBucket wrote: »

Very strange times ahead I suspect.

Excellent post. I think it hits the nail on the head.

YellowBucket · 09-07-2020 11:50AM

If airborne particles are a huge issue, countries that are very dependent on air conditioning are probably at more risk than we are, or much of Northern Europe is.

Even in relatively warmer parts of Western Europe like France, a lot of people don’t bother with air conditioning and buildings tend to be adapted to the weather - shutters etc

Very few of those systems are geared up to deal with this. Filtration is usually basic or non existent and they just recirculate, cool and dehumidify air.

The US also tends to use forced air heating. So you’ll have similar issues to air conditioning through the year, even in colder months. Most European buildings tend to use radiators. You wouldn’t find many schools here for example with forced air heating, although a lot of universities have gone with complex HVAC systems, especially in newer, more energy efficient buildings.

In Ireland the issue will be public transport vehicles and offices.

Irish Rail, Bus Éireann and Luas should probably be looking at maximising air extraction out of the coaches. It might not be easy to do and it will definitely reduce energy efficiency but given our climate most of the time it will be an acceptable temperature on board, might even be fresher and less stuffy.

It’s something we would want to be looking at though and ramping up the knowledge and technical experience very rapidly.

There’s a lot of focus on aviation and aircraft are a very known quantity and highly regulated. Things like busses, trains, offices and so on are far less predictable and the finer details wouldn’t be as well analysed at all.

hmmm · 09-07-2020 11:55AM

YellowBucket wrote: »

Irish Rail, Bus Éireann and Luas should probably be looking at maximising air extraction out of the coaches. It might not be easy to do

Don't want to sound smart, but on public transport isn't that opening a window?

briancoolcat · 09-07-2020 11:57AM

"Very strange times ahead I suspect." (Quote) Great post yellow bucket and spot on analysis of what's going on in America right now. Unless a cure for treatment is found for this you are going to see things slide along and out of control over there. I've lived there and have brother living and married in new York and it is so disjointed and badly managed right now that coronavirus won't be controlled without a vaccine. It's a different world over there with so many different views and beliefs and outlooks that the world will be constantly under the thumb of this unless an outright ban on travel to and from the US and the other badly managed countries is imposed. Unfortunately this won't happen so we will have to co exist with this until the boffins find a treatment. Lot of lives going to be lost in the meantime but I can't see any other alternative only co existence with covid 19.

09-07-2020 11:58AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Some stark differences in countries e.g. Canada compared to USA

Wonder how it looks when done state by state for the US. Shifts the border to the old mason-dixon line i'd say

snotboogie · 09-07-2020 12:11PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Some reflections on the new Melbourne restrictions, including the kind of thing you would hope doesn't become widespread here.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/09/this-lockdown-seems-different-second-time-around-melbourne-is-on-edge

I don't know why that article rubbed me the wrong way:

Bec Blakeney says her seven-year-old daughter “thrived” during the first lockdown, but is not doing well now.

“Recently I checked her worry jar and found her worries are: ‘having coronavirus’ and ‘not seeing my friends again’,” she says.

Maybe because that quote with the obligatory twitter picture screams cosseted attention seeker. I get it, it's tough and my words are harsh but when you look at what people are going through in Brazil and South Asia it all seems a bit trivial

caveat emptor · 09-07-2020 12:29PM

VonLuck wrote: »

Is there an image of cases per million population? Would be interesting to see.

I found it on a different site. You have to hover over with mouse to see the value for a country.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=map&yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~MEX~CHL~ZAF~DZA~COL&casesMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Really does show how good things are here at the moment/

France and Spain are 4 times worse than us at the moment.
Sweden is 60 times more cases per head.
US is nearly 100 times worse at the moment.

Things can change pretty quickly as we've seen in Israel. Hopefully we don't get complacent.

bennyineire · 09-07-2020 12:33PM

hmmm wrote: »

Don't want to sound smart, but on public transport isn't that opening a window?

When was the last time you were on a commuter/inter city train ?
there are no windows that you can open on modern trains

RebelButtMunch · 09-07-2020 12:42PM

bennyineire wrote: »

When was the last time you were on a commuter/inter city train ?
there are no windows that you can open on modern trains

Luas has windows that open

Rob A. Bank · 09-07-2020 12:44PM

Interesting article in the New York Times about Airborne Coronavirus with some useful links.

"In a crowded indoor space, a single infected person can release enough aerosolized virus over time to infect many people, perhaps seeding a superspreader event.

For droplets to be responsible for that kind of spread, a single person would have to be within a few feet of all the other people, or to have contaminated an object that everyone else touched.

All that seems unlikely to many experts: “I have to do too many mental gymnastics to explain those other routes of transmission compared to aerosol transmission, which is much simpler,” Dr. Marr said."

Ae Fond Kiss · 09-07-2020 12:48PM

If we were to put a final, worst case scenario of 300,000 Covid deaths in the US this is 0.1% of her population of 328 million.

Like some other countries, they see those who die as generally over 65, not part of the 'productive' elements of society. Infact those in charge view them as the opposite, those on pensions, using health care resources. It's an appalling, unethical way of viewing the pandemic.

In the American Civil War the US lost 2% of her then population, 620,000 people. Mostly young men in their prime. 2% of the population is 20 times the 0.1% worst case projection of Covid deaths.

I'm not trying to compare a War for slave freedom/state rights to a viral pandemic. But just trying to point out that the US is a huge country, and due to the demographic effected by the virus, and relatively small percentage death rate, they aren't treating this seriously.

Along with all the reasons mentioned in Yellow Bucket's excellent posts.

ednwireland · 09-07-2020 12:51PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Interesting article in the New York Times about Airborne Coronavirus with some useful links.

"In a crowded indoor space, a single infected person can release enough aerosolized virus over time to infect many people, perhaps seeding a superspreader event.

For droplets to be responsible for that kind of spread, a single person would have to be within a few feet of all the other people, or to have contaminated an object that everyone else touched.

All that seems unlikely to many experts: “I have to do too many mental gymnastics to explain those other routes of transmission compared to aerosol transmission, which is much simpler,” Dr. Marr said."

aerosol the new scare tactic, some doctor on tv3 saying aerosols hang around in the air and infect people last night. if thats the case how is every shop worker not infected by now ????

honestly most of the "experts" need to shut up at this point expect most of the university research funding out their at the moment is covid related so need your face on the telly

AlmightyCushion · 09-07-2020 12:58PM

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

If we were to put a final, worst case scenario of 300,000 Covid deaths in the US this is 0.001% of her population of 328 million.

Like some other countries, they see those who die as generally over 65, not part of the 'productive' elements of society. Infact those in charge view them as the opposite, those on pensions, using health care resources. It's an appalling, unethical way of viewing the pandemic.

In the American Civil War the US lost 2% of her then population, 620,000 people. Mostly young men in their prime. 2% of the population is 2,000 times the 0.001% worst case projection of Covid deaths.

I'm not trying to compare a War for slave freedom/state rights to a viral pandemic. But just trying to point out that the US is a huge country, and due to the demographic effected by the virus, and relatively small percentage death rate, they aren't treating this seriously.

Along with all the reasons mentioned in Yellow Bucket's excellent posts.

Your math is way off. 300,000 is nearly 0.1% of their population not 0.001%.

AlmightyCushion · 09-07-2020 01:01PM

ednwireland wrote: »

aerosol the new scare tactic, some doctor on tv3 saying aerosols hang around in the air and infect people last night. if thats the case how is every shop worker not infected by now ????

honestly most of the "experts" need to shut up at this point expect most of the university research funding out their at the moment is covid related so need your face on the telly

The volume of air and amount of virus emitted over time. Customers in shops will typically only be there for a short amount of time. Even if they are spreading the virus, they will probably only shed a small amount over a large area. That's different to a pub which is usually a lot smaller and people stay there a lot longer. Plus, they will be talking/shouting a lot more so spreading more virus. Similar with an office workplace type environment. They're spending 8 or 9 hours there and talking more so spreading more virus although the volume of air in the room would be larger.

Ae Fond Kiss · 09-07-2020 01:01PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Your math is way off. 300,000 is nearly 0.1% of their population not 0.001%.

It is indeed!

Ok I'll edit that. 0.1% obviously still doesn't register with them.

caveat emptor · 09-07-2020 01:02PM

Buzzword bingo time,

experts
shut up
scare tactic
MSM fear mongerers

Would you go to a doctor if you were sick?
Are they an expert?
What even is an expert?

So many questions with so many consequences.

Politicians including Michael Gove and Donald Trump have repeatedly asserted that people have “had enough” of experts. This troubles me deeply; the sentiment is contributing to major shifts in our political landscape. But it also leads me to ask why people don’t trust experts.

Better yet, why do people trust some experts but reject others? Why do many people on the one hand seek medical experts for medical issues, but distrust climate experts for climate issues, or economic experts for economic issues?

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-real-reason-that-we-don-t-trust-experts-a7126536.html

ednwireland wrote: »

aerosol the new scare tactic, some doctor on tv3 saying aerosols hang around in the air and infect people last night. if thats the case how is every shop worker not infected by now ????

honestly most of the "experts" need to shut up at this point expect most of the university research funding out their at the moment is covid related so need your face on the telly

caveat emptor wrote: »

US off the scale. God help them. This is what happens when people throw around fake news at anything they disagree with. No matter the evidence.

Away With The Fairies · 09-07-2020 01:04PM

Has the WHO announced aerosol transmission yet?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/airborne-coronavirus-what-how-remain-22323338?fbclid=IwAR2dMkPN5YPTmizsMDneSGUTYX1qKZP2SnuBtqXZ4huMp46DlsnfLK3wI5o

hmmm · 09-07-2020 01:05PM

ednwireland wrote: »

aerosol the new scare tactic, some doctor on tv3 saying aerosols hang around in the air and infect people last night. if thats the case how is every shop worker not infected by now ????

I don't blame the scientists, I blame the media looking for exciting headlines.

Scientists will say "based on the information we have, it looks like it could spread via airborne, aerosol or droplet transmission, although from what we can see of cases the vast majority outside of hospitals are caused by droplets, please sneeze into your sleeve and wear a mask." which the media then headline as "It's in the air all around us, we're all going to die!!!!"

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 01:07PM

ednwireland wrote: »

aerosol the new scare tactic, some doctor on tv3 saying aerosols hang around in the air and infect people last night. if thats the case how is every shop worker not infected by now ????

honestly most of the "experts" need to shut up at this point expect most of the university research funding out their at the moment is covid related so need your face on the telly

How do you know most shop workers weren't?

This thread endlessly focuses on the negatives to the point people lose sight of the fact that most people experience either very mild symptoms or none at all, particularly those in the age group in which most supermarket employees would fall.

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 01:09PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Has the WHO announced aerosol transmission yet?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/airborne-coronavirus-what-how-remain-22323338?fbclid=IwAR2dMkPN5YPTmizsMDneSGUTYX1qKZP2SnuBtqXZ4huMp46DlsnfLK3wI5o

Who cares? The WHOs credibility is next to nonexistent at this point.

political analyst · 09-07-2020 01:17PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0709/1152196-global-coronavirus-cases/

Australia's second most populous city began a six-week lockdown today following a spike in new coronavirus cases, as states around the country tightened internal borders to prevent a second wave sweeping the country.

Australia has avoided the high casualty numbers of other countries to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has killed 544,055 people globally, but an outbreak in Melbourne prompted the state of Victoria to impose "self isolate" orders for the city's estimated five million.

The virus's maximum incubation period before the symptoms of Covid appear - in those cases where the carrier develops Covid - is a fortnight. So why is the duration of the Melbourne lockdown 3 times longer than that?

yawhat? · 09-07-2020 01:21PM

ednwireland wrote: »

aerosol the new scare tactic, some doctor on tv3 saying aerosols hang around in the air and infect people last night. if thats the case how is every shop worker not infected by now ????

honestly most of the "experts" need to shut up at this point expect most of the university research funding out their at the moment is covid related so need your face on the telly

This is a relatively new virus that continues to spread around the world, and re-emerges in areas that previously suppressed its transmission. No one knows for sure exactly how it transmits. That’s nobody, including you.

As a result people are engaged in research and study to figure this out. They then release the results of their studies to help further our understanding of the virus.

Your post implies that these people are not in fact experts, and that their research is flawed and incorrect, and that they are motivated by financial gain. As a result, they should shut up.

That’s quite a strong view to hold, and I would hope that you have both the expertise and knowledge to back it up. However, I suspect that you don’t. This will not, however, stop you expressing your views because you have every right to denigrate others, even if you know sweet f.a. about them or their work. Like soo many others on this thread.

timsey tiger · 09-07-2020 01:24PM

hmmm wrote: »

I don't blame the scientists, I blame the media looking for exciting headlines.

Scientists will say "based on the information we have, it looks like it could spread via airborne, aerosol or droplet transmission, although from what we can see of cases the vast majority outside of hospitals are caused by droplets, please sneeze into your sleeve and wear a mask." which the media then headline as "It's in the air all around us, we're all going to die!!!!"

Aerosol spread, would make the high number of medical staff still being infected more understandable.

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 01:25PM

political analyst wrote: »

...
The virus's maximum incubation period before the symptoms of Covid appear - in those cases where the carrier develops Covid - is a fortnight. So why is the duration of the Melbourne lockdown 3 times longer than that?

Because the Chinese found that most infections occurred within households, which is why they pulled people out of them and stuck them in fever wards.

If you have a household of 5 or six, with one infected at the start of lockdown, you might get a chain of infections, with significant delays between one member becoming infected from another, rather than them all getting it simultaneously, thus dragging out the infectious period for the household.

Widdensushi · 09-07-2020 01:25PM

It's possible in laboratory conditions for it to be transmitted that way but in every day life is unlikely

Ficheall · 09-07-2020 01:25PM

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0709/1152196-global-coronavirus-cases/

Australia's second most populous city began a six-week lockdown today following a spike in new coronavirus cases, as states around the country tightened internal borders to prevent a second wave sweeping the country.

Australia has avoided the high casualty numbers of other countries to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has killed 544,055 people globally, but an outbreak in Melbourne prompted the state of Victoria to impose "self isolate" orders for the city's estimated five million.

The virus's maximum incubation period before the symptoms of Covid appear - in those cases where the carrier develops Covid - is a fortnight. So why is the duration of the Melbourne lockdown 3 times longer than that?

You could have it for two weeks and not pass it on immediately, and then pass it to your housemate whom you don't interact with very often, who then doesn't develop symptoms, but is still a carrier - and you can be an asymptomatic carrier for more than two weeks, I believe. That kind of thing.
It does seem to be erring on the side of caution, but I can't say I blame them.

Plumbthedepths · 09-07-2020 01:25PM

Interesting interview on the 1 o clock news from Dr D Naborro ( hope I spelt it right) special envoy on Covid 19 from WHO . At present WHO cannot say that Covid 19 is airborne but may change their stance in the presence of new evidence.

Sam Russell · 09-07-2020 01:26PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

Aerosol spread, would make the high number of medical staff still being infected more understandable.

So would testing them all every week, symptoms or not.

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 01:27PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

Aerosol spread, would make the high number of medical staff still being infected more understandable.

A Chinese study found particularly large amounts of airborne virus containing vapour droplets in the rooms where medical workers changed into and out of PPE gear.

caveat emptor · 09-07-2020 01:27PM

Seems this is what's happening. Sad times.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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