Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Neamhshuntasach · 01-07-2020 02:56PM

snotboogie wrote: »

I think people will be shocked when it sinks in just how restrictive the "new normal" is. It's fine if we get a vaccine in 2021 and it is only for 6 to 12 months but we can't keep social distancing for 5+ years. If we are in the same spot in March 2021 with no vaccine in sight I'd be in favour of trying to eliminate the virus in Ireland.

How do we eliminate it without literally shutting down airports and port entries completely? It's impossible. We could seal off our borders now until the end of the year and probably get to 0 cases for an extended period of time. But what happens as soon as we open back up as the Covid free Utopia if it still exists outside our borders? And what has happened to the economy during all this time we were shut off from the world? I just don't see shutting up shop as a valid option because it's pointless. Unless every single country on the planet does it until it has been globally eradicated.

I agree that it's probably not practical to keep the current social distancing measures in place for years. People naturally won't want to do it over time, standards will slip and what's acceptable will adjust. I still don't see how it's going to work this winter.

ACitizenErased · 01-07-2020 02:57PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

The poster was being sarcastic.

No I wasn’t? I don’t think I’ve ever quite spoken to someone like you, Christ.

What Username Guidelines · 01-07-2020 02:58PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

I get the feeling there is disappointment that the virus never got bad in Ireland and they feel cheated of a good, movie-style disaster scenario. Now we are getting back to normal and they just aren't ready. It seems to be you find these people massively over-represented online but they rarely exist out in public, among friends, family, work colleagues, random people you pass on the street and interact with in shops (as well as the two pubs I've been in so far).

Do you actually believe that?

I'd probably be considered a little more apprehensive about opening up. In my mind we don't get lots of chances at getting this right.

I fully understand the need to open up, know we can't stay hunkered down forever. But there are places where this is on the rise again after opening, and when people post about those, they're immediately labelled doom-mongers or told to stop being negative. Initially I'd wince over the bad news stuff and try and ignore it but it could very well happen here too. Czech republic lauded as a model we should follow, and now no-one is mentioning them because their cases are on the rise again.

Having the attitude that the more apprehensive want a disaster-scenario, or as others put it "Just to day I told you so" is extremely ignorant. I could just as easily say some have their head in the sand and are ignoring the potential for how big this could get, as it can come off a little like that but, with a bit of nuance, it's really just down to some being more relaxed about opening up than others.

With the way the arguments go on here, there's mostly just the two extremes, a circle-jerk of the same people thanking the same posts on the same side.

And the funny thing is, both sides just want the same thing.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-07-2020 02:59PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Crush the curve? Don't be ridiculous. That involves either (1) buy in from the whole world or else (2) closing borders to Ireland. Neither are practicable so don't even bother mentioning eliminating the virus in Ireland.

Similarly, a "new normal" is not one where social distancing lasts indefinitely following the reopening of society. It lasts a few weeks at best but with everything open including sports clubs, very quickly people won't adhere to social distancing, especially those not categorised as vulnerable. All you need to do is look at a few big gatherings recently (i.e. BLM protests, Stephen's Green public drinking and the Garda's funeral) to notice this if you haven't experienced it in your day to day life.

The world is going through a trauma that changes society and changes attitude to risk.

We may have to live with the virus but we also have to live with new restrictions which will be permanent across many industries.

Those measures will seem less abnormal as time goes on like wearing masks and keeping distance, queuing for stores, having your temperature taken, restrictions on attending events etc etc etc

A lot of things have changed.

Assetbacked · 01-07-2020 03:01PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Do you actually believe that?

I'd probably be considered a little more apprehensive about opening up. In my mind we don't get lots of chances at getting this right.

I fully understand the need to open up, know we can't stay hunkered down forever. But there are places where this is on the rise again after opening, and when people post about those, they're immediately labelled doom-mongers or told to stop being negative. Initially I'd wince over the bad news stuff and try and ignore it but it could very well happen here too. Czech republic lauded as a model we should follow, and now no-one is mentioning them because their cases are on the rise again.

Having the attitude that the more apprehensive want a disaster-scenario, or as others put it "Just to day I told you so" is extremely ignorant. I could just as easily say some have their head in the sand and are ignoring the potential for how big this could get, as it can come off a little like that but, with a bit of nuance, it's really just down to some being more relaxed about opening up than others.

With the way the arguments go on here, there's mostly just the two extremes, a circle-jerk of the same people thanking the same posts on the same side.

And the funny thing is, both sides just want the same thing.

Czech Republic held yesterday a farewell party to the pandemic.

Guests were encouraged to share with their neighbours and there was no social distancing, something people in countries under lockdown will find hard to relate to.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53244688

This is my problem, people are stuck in their idea that we are still in the unknown stages of the first quarter of the year and haven't moved on and won't move on.

Jim_Hodge · 01-07-2020 03:03PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Doesn't explain the 8 days that poster has to wait for.

Because that seems to be an extreme case for some reason. My neighbour got a test the same day he contacted his GP last week.

Cork Boy 53 · 01-07-2020 03:04PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Well I'll keep telling myself that now whenever anyone says something at odds with our data showing plenty of hospital capacity, effective extinguishment of community transmission and that, even contracting the virus, there is generally minimal risk to those who are of the age and health who contribute to a functioning economy.

This particular comment reminds me of the posters who stated the virus was only killing those who were "past their shelf life" and "beyond their economic use ". Do you share those sentiments?

Assetbacked · 01-07-2020 03:05PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The world is going through a trauma that changes society and changes attitude to risk.

We may have to live with the virus but we also have to live with new restrictions which will be permanent across many industries.

Those measures will seem less abnormal as time goes on like wearing masks and keeping distance, queuing for stores, having your temperature taken, restrictions on attending events etc etc etc

A lot of things have changed.

Very few have the capacity to adhere to the alleged changes you think will happen. I feel your view is not based on actually going about your daily business since the pandemic began and/or working in a particularly sensitive industry to the virus. Wearing masks (other than when interacting with vulnerable people e.g. in hospital settings), keeping distance and queuing for stores are not sustainable beyond another few weeks/couple of months.

Jim_Hodge · 01-07-2020 03:05PM

gabeeg wrote: »

What are you basing this on?

We haven't even released a track/trace app yet

You do realise we have had very effective tracing without the app?

The world doesn't depend on apps for everything .

01-07-2020 03:06PM

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

How do we eliminate it without literally shutting down airports and port entries completely? It's impossible. We could seal off our borders now until the end of the year and probably get to 0 cases for an extended period of time. But what happens as soon as we open back up as the Covid free Utopia if it still exists outside our borders? And what has happened to the economy during all this time we were shut off from the world? I just don't see shutting up shop as a valid option because it's pointless. Unless every single country on the planet does it until it has been globally eradicated.

I agree that it's probably not practical to keep the current social distancing measures in place for years. People naturally won't want to do it over time, standards will slip and what's acceptable will adjust. I still don't see how it's going to work this winter.

You can see in NZ this week the first murmurings of discontent re. borders remaining closed, and an increasing level of anxiety in the population, reported in the NZ Herald today, about remaining so isolated from a social and economic perspective. Jacinda Ardern has put a lid on that for now, but it is only going to become more and more of an issue. They are betting everything on a vaccine, and if it doesn't arrive for a small number of years (and there are still experts suggesting that vaccine efficacy is not in any way guaranteed) then they are going to have some hard decisions to make about their connectivity to the outside world

Away With The Fairies · 01-07-2020 03:08PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Because that seems to be an extreme case for some reason. My neighbour got a test the same day he contacted his GP last week.

That's great about your neighbour getting a test the same day, through in a bit of positivity. 8 days is still not good enough and no excuse for it.

ACitizenErased · 01-07-2020 03:09PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That's great about your neighbour getting a test the same day, through in a bit of positivity. 8 days is still not good enough and no excuse for it.

1 case having an 8 day wait out of the 5000 referrals per day is not a major issue.

What Username Guidelines · 01-07-2020 03:10PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Czech Republic held yesterday a farewell party to the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53244688

This is my problem, people are stuck in their idea that we are still in the unknown stages of the first quarter of the year and haven't moved on and won't move on.

Or, they want to move on safely but are apprehensive about it?

Kermit.de.frog · 01-07-2020 03:11PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Very few have the capacity to adhere to the alleged changes you think will happen. I feel your view is not based on actually going about your daily business since the pandemic began and/or working in a particularly sensitive industry to the virus. Wearing masks (other than when interacting with vulnerable people e.g. in hospital settings), keeping distance and queuing for stores are not sustainable beyond another few weeks/couple of months.

These measures are already in place so it's not really a debate on if they are implemented.

They are not extreme either. If we go through a nightmare this winter things will get a lot more drastic.

So far most should be content that every day measures are as lax as they can be.

There is nothing extreme about the measures.

Jim_Hodge · 01-07-2020 03:12PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That's great about your neighbour getting a test the same day, through in a bit of positivity. 8 days is still not good enough and no excuse for it.

I can't see that being any way typical. There's a reason somewhere. Don't get all indignant about one anonymous report of a delay.

Away With The Fairies · 01-07-2020 03:13PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

1 case having an 8 day wait out of the 5000 referrals per day is not a major issue.

How many people has that 1 person been in contact with? After 8 days, the test will probably come back negative. How do you contact trace the people they have been in contact.

Yes one person is alot and what it can lead to.

SeaBreezes · 01-07-2020 03:14PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Do you actually believe that?

I'd probably be considered a little more apprehensive about opening up. In my mind we don't get lots of chances at getting this right.

I fully understand the need to open up, know we can't stay hunkered down forever. But there are places where this is on the rise again after opening, and when people post about those, they're immediately labelled doom-mongers or told to stop being negative. Initially I'd wince over the bad news stuff and try and ignore it but it could very well happen here too. Czech republic lauded as a model we should follow, and now no-one is mentioning them because their cases are on the rise again.

Having the attitude that the more apprehensive want a disaster-scenario, or as others put it "Just to day I told you so" is extremely ignorant. I could just as easily say some have their head in the sand and are ignoring the potential for how big this could get, as it can come off a little like that but, with a bit of nuance, it's really just down to some being more relaxed about opening up than others.

With the way the arguments go on here, there's mostly just the two extremes, a circle-jerk of the same people thanking the same posts on the same side.

And the funny thing is, both sides just want the same thing.

Totally agree. The problem is if we get it wrong people die. Oops my bad, doesnt cut it afterwards.

We are feeling our way forward very carefully. And for that i am grateful. We cant stay in lockdown forever no, but carefully does it...

Assetbacked · 01-07-2020 03:16PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

This particular comment reminds me of the posters who stated the virus was only killing those who were "past their shelf life" and "beyond their economic use ". Do you share those sentiments?

I feel like Roger Federer whose opponent has tried and failed to lob him so here is the smash back to you;

CSO life expectancy statistics; 78.4 years for men, and 82.8 years for women https://www.cso.ie/en/interactivezone/statisticsexplained/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancytables/

Covid statistics https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

It is funny that nowhere at all on that official page of the covid stats do they actually include the median age of deaths, which automatically should raise suspicions. They do include the median age of cases (which is 48 years old btw). We already know that a death "with" covid is counted as a covid death so the figures would've been massaged anyway. Nonetheless, going back searching for some official source of information on average age of deaths (as they make it hard to find for obvious reasons) it appears that 92% of deaths as at mid-May covid "related" were over 65s. Hmm https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcases/

Show me data that contradicts the above and I'll listen. Otherwise, I think it's safe to say from your post history in the covid threads that you are a misery merchant with opinions that can be discounted.

Jim_Hodge · 01-07-2020 03:16PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

How many people has that 1 person been in contact with? After 8 days, the test will probably come back negative. How do you contact trace the people they have been in contact.

Yes one person is alot and what it can lead to.

If they follow the protocols they will have been in contact with the same number of people regardless of when the test is done.

I'll leave you to it. You'll just have another reason to be annoyed over it.

Cork Boy 53 · 01-07-2020 03:17PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Very few have the capacity to adhere to the alleged changes you think will happen. I feel your view is not based on actually going about your daily business since the pandemic began and/or working in a particularly sensitive industry to the virus. Wearing masks (other than when interacting with vulnerable people e.g. in hospital settings), keeping distance and queuing for stores are not sustainable beyond another few weeks/couple of months.

Why do you think that wearing of masks is not sustainable? Most people in eastern Asian countries in particular have worn them as a part of their daily life for years on end and there don`t seem to have been any negative effects.

ACitizenErased · 01-07-2020 03:17PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

How many people has that 1 person been in contact with? After 8 days, the test will probably come back negative. How do you contact trace the people they have been in contact.

Yes one person is alot and what it can lead to.

A person with symptoms should isolate for 14 days. That's a personal problem, not a testing problem.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-07-2020 03:19PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Why do you think that wearing of masks is not sustainable? Most people in eastern Asian countries in particular have worn them as a part of their daily life for years on end and there don`t seem to have been any negative effects.

Good point, you could argue has simply imported these cultural norms in attitude to disease now.

It will get more and more normalised here as time goes on.

Assetbacked · 01-07-2020 03:20PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

These measures are already in place so it's not really a debate on if they are implemented.

They are not extreme either. If we go through a nightmare this winter things will get a lot more drastic.

So far most should be content that every day measures are as lax as they can be.

There is nothing extreme about the measures.

There is nothing extreme about the measures? Wow. Just wow. Can I ask what your employment situation is, just generally, doesn't need to be specific?

s1ippy · 01-07-2020 03:21PM

In relation to the more cautious people being over-represented online, I don't think this is true at all.

I have a number of friends I made down through the years who are locals at pubs I frequent. We have various Whatsapp groups where we stay in touch and share memes or anecdotes. I enquired yesterday in a few of them if anyone had their first creamy screamer yet. Except for one person (who's by their own admission, had a very hard time of it. A healthcare worker.) none of the lads have bothered going out yet.

"I've waited four months, no harm in another few if it means not contracting a potentially life-changing/ending virus."

Some of these lads would have been in the pub every day and on the bag (or ten) every weekend.

Nijmegen · 01-07-2020 03:21PM

Some of the posts about opening up and be damned or the stats achtually say this remind me very much of the early days of this thread series, when people were being called Cassandras for saying the data was pointing to a pretty damaging pandemic coming our way. What's the rush? Let the Germans and Spaniards and Americans etc figure out what happens when you open up. Be in the second wave of opening, rather than the second wave of covid.

stephenjmcd · 01-07-2020 03:21PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The world is going through a trauma that changes society and changes attitude to risk.

We may have to live with the virus but we also have to live with new restrictions which will be permanent across many industries.

Those measures will seem less abnormal as time goes on like wearing masks and keeping distance, queuing for stores, having your temperature taken, restrictions on attending events etc etc etc

A lot of things have changed.

Do you actually believe that things like distance and restrictions on events are permanent ??

Eventually things will go back to how they were, be it 6 months, a year whatever, your not going to have permanent restrictions on events and distancing

Assetbacked · 01-07-2020 03:21PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Why do you think that wearing of masks is not sustainable? Most people in eastern Asian countries in particular have worn them as a part of their daily life for years on end and there don`t seem to have been any negative effects.

How about cultural? Is that enough for you? You probably think that people should wear masks every flu season too don't you? this isn't just a covid thing for you.

Cork Boy 53 · 01-07-2020 03:23PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

These measures are already in place so it's not really a debate on if they are implemented.

They are not extreme either. If we go through a nightmare this winter things will get a lot more drastic.

So far most should be content that every day measures are as lax as they can be.

There is nothing extreme about the measures.

Careful there Kermit. You might be accused of being a "misery merchant".:rolleyes:

Spencer Brown · 01-07-2020 03:23PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Do you actually believe that things like distance and restrictions on events are permanent ??

Eventually things will go back to how they were, be it 6 months, a year whatever, your not going to have permanent restrictions on events and distancing

Kermit is a bit of a free thinker.

ACitizenErased · 01-07-2020 03:23PM

Wait till the suspects on here hear we may have a vaccine by September! Doooooooooooom

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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