FF/FG/Green Next Government

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 10:30PM

blanch152 wrote: »

It is the only plan so far, but there are enough hints in the public pronouncements to understand where they expect to be come September. So long as the numbers stay low, all kids will be back full-time.

Hints??

Seriously??

The govt is giving hints to schools and that's where we are?

What's next?
A nod and wink budget?
A nose tapped health policy?

You don't run a country on bloody hints.

blanch152 · 30-06-2020 10:33PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Hints??

Seriously??

The govt is giving hints to schools and that's where we are?

What's next?
A nod and wink budget?
A nose tapped health policy?

You don't run a country on bloody hints.

I am in contact with a number of school principals and all share my view and are preparing accordingly.

30-06-2020 10:35PM

Edgware wrote: »

The new Chief Whip will do allright playing the long game. He has the State car, can gather the anti Martins around him, will still have enough influence to push a few goodies to Mayo.
Martin will probably stand down as F.F. leader before the next election and Dara will be in a very strong position to take the leadership

Most Ministers don't have State cars now - just Taoiseach and Justice I think.

LawBoy2018 · 30-06-2020 10:45PM

Edgware wrote: »

The new Chief Whip will do allright playing the long game. He has the State car, can gather the anti Martins around him, will still have enough influence to push a few goodies to Mayo.
Martin will probably stand down as F.F. leader before the next election and Dara will be in a very strong position to take the leadership

He can be king of the ashes after FF are absolutely decimated in a few years, lol.

dundalkfc10 · 30-06-2020 10:52PM

blanch152 wrote: »

I am in contact with a number of school principals and all share my view and are preparing accordingly.

Only person you are in contact with is that voice in your head you space cadet.

My sons starting school baby infants and the school have no idea when or what the schedule will be when he is back. Got his book list and a letter stating we will know more when we no know more basically.

What happens if they all can't go back, childcare, what about parents work? But sure they have a plan but nobody knows it

PixieValentine · 30-06-2020 11:32PM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Most Ministers don't have State cars now - just Taoiseach and Justice I think.

Tanaiste too. Taoiseach, Tanaiste and Justice are the ones that get the cars. None of the rest of them though, you're right there.

James Brown · 30-06-2020 11:56PM

blanch152 wrote: »

To show that the government preferred 25 year leases and PPP’s build to rent, you would have to demonstrate, using links, that these were the majority of government-funded projects, rather than exceptional occasional solutions. Without such proof, it would be fair comment to suggest that your post outlines a conspiracy theory.

Note: Robust demolition of a nonsensical conspiracy theory does not equate to a personal attack.

You don't know what a conspiracy theory is.

You don't believe we have a crisis so that rules out logic.
The fact that they preferred the private market to building our own stock has been shown to you. it's in their housing policy program.
Fine Gael made using hotels and B&B's the norm. They made buying houses to use as social commonplace. Formally an emergency stop gap, as was leasing private homes. All massive wastes of money IMO.
I've shown you with figures from FG themselves. When you cut through the spin they are building f*** all.

Fine Gael spends €4bn on private rental landlords, new figures reveal
Fianna Fail says Government's reliance on private rental market is 'unsustainable'

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-spends-4bn-on-private-rental-landlords-new-figures-reveal-36972122.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fine-gael-is-gaslighting-the-nation-over-affordable-housing-1.4041866

https://www.thejournal.ie/leo-housing-varadkar-cork-fine-gael-ideology-4894232-Nov2019/

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-housing-general-election-debate-4982691-Jan2020/

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/politics-news-pmn/irish-housing-crisis-derails-varadkars-re-election-bid

I've hopes Fianna Fail will rectify this FG housing crisis.

http://www.darraghobrien.ie/news/figures-show-long-term-cost-of-fine-gael-reliance-on-rental-sector-over-direct-build

MrMusician18 · 01-07-2020 12:14AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

And yet this poster hasn't complained about either so that's a wasted little dig.

This poster has complained about projects that have been green lit, start date agreed but constantly being delayed, costs estimated and costs spiraling before work has even begun.

Perhaps it's the people giving the green light to begin who don't have a clue since they seem to not be able to give a commencement date that is even in the realms of accurate or an estimated costs that is in the ballpark of actual costs.

Have you actually thought about why this might happen? There are different forms of government contract, one is the fixed price. This gives absolute cost certainty that the project will be delivered for the price come what may (almost). By forcing the contractor to shoulder all the risk in a project, they have to include for it in their price. So if an ancient burial ground appears on the site - that's the contractors problem.
The problem with this contract is that while it gives cost certainty, it's expensive and on big or complex projects it can be prohibitively so. It is usually more expensive than a project where risk is shared, because usually these risks don't materialise.
They look great politically though x project delivered on budget for €200m. Joe soap doesn't have the ability to know if €200m is good value, but "on budget" sounds good. It looks much better than the same project, where risk was shared. X project delivered for €200m, €50m over original tender. Reason for overrun, unexpected ground conditions.

Bannasidhe · 01-07-2020 12:35AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Have you actually thought about why this might happen? There are different forms of government contract, one is the fixed price. This gives absolute cost certainty that the project will be delivered for the price come what may (almost). By forcing the contractor to shoulder all the risk in a project, they have to include for it in their price. So if an ancient burial ground appears on the site - that's the contractors problem.
The problem with this contract is that while it gives cost certainty, it's expensive and on big or complex projects it can be prohibitively so. It is usually more expensive than a project where risk is shared, because usually these risks don't materialise.
They look great politically though x project delivered on budget for €200m. Joe soap doesn't have the ability to know if €200m is good value, but "on budget" sounds good. It looks much better than the same project, where risk was shared. X project delivered for €200m, €50m over original tender. Reason for overrun, unexpected ground conditions.

Sweetest divine - it's burial grounds now.

It's already a bloody roundabout.
A large roundabout with roads leading to a motorway, a tunnel, a city centre etc.

It is to be redeveloped.

This was last august

The Government has been accused of failing to deliver key infrastructure projects to the south of the country as the long-awaited €100m upgrade of the Dunkettle interchange has been stalled again due to spiralling costs.

The criticism follows confirmation that Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) is to tender for the construction stage of the Cork project as it could not agree on the costs with Sisk, the company that has carried out preparatory work on the Dunkettle interchange upgrade to date.

A statement from TII said “both parties remain committed to advancing the project”, but admitted that the need to move to tender for the construction contract will push back the estimated completion date by 12 months to 2023. However, the Construction Industry Federation warns putting the project back to tender may set it back by more than 10 years.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/100m-dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-delayed-by-a-year-944273.html

They started work and then it stalled as the price wasn't agreed. Estimates have gone from €100m to €150m. It might not be ready for 10 years according the the construction fed. It is one interchange.
That is GUBU.
This from a gov that claimed to be fiscally responsible.

I am saying when things like this happen we need to reexamine the whole blasted process of tendering to avoid things like this happening -and you are talking about there might be burial grounds.

You might be happy with this level of lack of fiscal oversight but I am not - I don't believe in the Magic Money Tree.

KyussB · 01-07-2020 06:17AM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It will be very difficult to make substantive changes to health and housing if we are running enormous budget deficits, have 20% unemployment rates, and have Brexit looming.

Money doesn't grow on trees, and we are facing into some of the most extraordinary challenges we have faced as a country since our foundation. We will be borrowing heavily (pushing that can down the road for the next generations to sort out); there might be some level of debt write-off, and we will be able to tap into EU funds if they can all agree on that (that will come with its own condition though like tax harmonisation across the EU).

It's about the economy, stupid, as James Carville once quipped.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

...
No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Here we go again with the thought-terminating-cliches - you obviously have no idea where money does comes from, and are just parroting a century-old narrative, that it has to be dug out of the ground ala gold or some similar nonsense.

Money is readily available - both from banks for private spending, where the loan is sustainable - and for governments through near-zero-to-negative interest rate bonds, in abundance, thanks to ECB policies...

Money grows to suit the economies demand for it, within the conditions imposed on its sustainabiltiy due to interest rates and general economic conditions.

That's how it's always worked.

The ECB and even private banks fit every facetious definition of 'money trees'...we're not in the gold standard.

KyussB · 01-07-2020 06:34AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

...
I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.
...

The UBI has a lot of problems - it's really a business subsidy, not an income subsidy, as businesses just slash wages over time in line with it (which means businesses get most of the subsidy) - it's inflationary, as it increases demand without requiring people to contribute to production - funding for it is always paired with Flat Taxes, i.e. massive regressive taxation, on top of the already regressive carbon taxes - it consolidates unemployment/pension and many other welfare state payments (which individually are unquestionable/sacrosanct, impossible to repeal) into a single payment that is going to be slahed enormously or retired permanently, as soon as a big enough economic crisis hits ("because money").

Be very careful with the UBI, it is a trojan horse policy - the same way the Green's have proven themselves to be an austerity-supporting trojan-horse party, who don't support real green policies.

The Job Guarantee policy is far more affordable than a UBI, and it keeps all other welfare payments alongside it - while resolving the issue of unemployment - it is a far more superior policy.

blanch152 · 01-07-2020 07:07AM

Bowie wrote: »

You don't know what a conspiracy theory is.

You don't believe we have a crisis so that rules out logic.
The fact that they preferred the private market to building our own stock has been shown to you. it's in their housing policy program.
Fine Gael made using hotels and B&B's the norm. They made buying houses to use as social commonplace. Formally an emergency stop gap, as was leasing private homes. All massive wastes of money IMO.
I've shown you with figures from FG themselves. When you cut through the spin they are building f*** all.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-spends-4bn-on-private-rental-landlords-new-figures-reveal-36972122.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fine-gael-is-gaslighting-the-nation-over-affordable-housing-1.4041866

https://www.thejournal.ie/leo-housing-varadkar-cork-fine-gael-ideology-4894232-Nov2019/

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-housing-general-election-debate-4982691-Jan2020/

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/politics-news-pmn/irish-housing-crisis-derails-varadkars-re-election-bid

I've hopes Fianna Fail will rectify this FG housing crisis.

http://www.darraghobrien.ie/news/figures-show-long-term-cost-of-fine-gael-reliance-on-rental-sector-over-direct-build

None of those links support the specific allegation that you made which was as follows:

Bowie wrote: »

Commenting on the fact that the FG government preferred 25 year leases and PPP's built to rent. Unless you have other information?

Plenty of figures but nothing to back you up.

Brendan Bendar · 01-07-2020 07:18AM

blanch152 wrote: »

None of those links support the specific allegation that you made which was as follows:

Plenty of figures but nothing to back you up.

Correct, the auld ‘blind them with rubbish’ tactic, and hope you’ll get away with it.

Bishop of hope · 01-07-2020 07:49AM

OK, just a note to the new minister or whoever is, responsible for public announcements.
I know two families heading for Spain in the next month or so, they've paid for their packages both in the 2000 euro mark area.
Now we have the cmo saying don't go, it's too dangerous.
Both of these families now feel guilt tripped about going and fear being ridiculed because of it.
They can't as yet get their money back and can't afford to pay for a staycation unless they do.
Someone needs to step in and clear this up please.

The_Conductor · 01-07-2020 07:53AM

Why should the hard-pressed tax payer bail out those who spent big money on trips to Spain/Portugal (where-ever).
Surely people have travel insurance?
I genuinely do not see why our taxes should be used to bail out people who splashed major money on holidays like this- by all means get it back from the airlines if you're not going- but anyone who booked after the 12th March- its on them- it is not up to the taxpayer to bail them out. If you booked before the lockdown- its easier to argue you didn't know what was happening- after- nope, its on you.

Bishop of hope · 01-07-2020 08:04AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

Why should the hard-pressed tax payer bail out those who spent big money on trips to Spain/Portugal (where-ever).
Surely people have travel insurance?
I genuinely do not see why our taxes should be used to bail out people who splashed major money on holidays like this- by all means get it back from the airlines if you're not going- but anyone who booked after the 12th March- its on them- it is not up to the taxpayer to bail them out. If you booked before the lockdown- its easier to argue you didn't know what was happening- after- nope, its on you.

Both of the cases I'm talking about were booked earlier and postponed from early June.

Edgware · 01-07-2020 08:09AM

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

He can be king of the ashes after FF are absolutely decimated in a few years, lol.

Codswallop

dundalkfc10 · 01-07-2020 08:09AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

OK, just a note to the new minister or whoever is, responsible for public announcements.
I know two families heading for Spain in the next month or so, they've paid for their packages both in the 2000 euro mark area.
Now we have the cmo saying don't go, it's too dangerous.
Both of these families now feel guilt tripped about going and fear being ridiculed because of it.
They can't as yet get their money back and can't afford to pay for a staycation unless they do.
Someone needs to step in and clear this up please.

Any one who listens to Dr Tony (I'd listen to Dr Nick in Springfield before him) after he tried to cover up the cervical scandal needs head tested.

Brendan Bendar · 01-07-2020 08:12AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

OK, just a note to the new minister or whoever is, responsible for public announcements.
I know two families heading for Spain in the next month or so, they've paid for their packages both in the 2000 euro mark area.
Now we have the cmo saying don't go, it's too dangerous.
Both of these families now feel guilt tripped about going and fear being ridiculed because of it.
They can't as yet get their money back and can't afford to pay for a staycation unless they do.
Someone needs to step in and clear this up please.

Correct, but it’s a difficult one.

Needs to be a possibly a EU wide policy on this as it will crop up frequently it seems.

That is Airline going, State advising not to go, money paid by client.

This needs to be sorted pronto as u say.

But it won’t be, I fear.

JohnnyFlash · 01-07-2020 08:16AM

KyussB wrote: »

Here we go again with the thought-terminating-cliches - you obviously have no idea where money does comes from, and are just parroting a century-old narrative, that it has to be dug out of the ground ala gold or some similar nonsense.

Money is readily available - both from banks for private spending, where the loan is sustainable - and for governments through near-zero-to-negative interest rate bonds, in abundance, thanks to ECB policies...

Money grows to suit the economies demand for it, within the conditions imposed on its sustainabiltiy due to interest rates and general economic conditions.

That's how it's always worked.

The ECB and even private banks fit every facetious definition of 'money trees'...we're not in the gold standard.

MTT dude. Haha. I know how central banking works, my friend.

Edgware · 01-07-2020 08:17AM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Most Ministers don't have State cars now - just Taoiseach and Justice I think.

Sorry. You are correct about the State car. The others at Cabinet get expenses to cover the provision of a car. He wont be rolling into Ballina in a Nissan Micra but will have a car that sends out the message that he is the main man in Mayo. I have no doubt that his day will come

Podge_irl · 01-07-2020 09:45AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

Why should the hard-pressed tax payer bail out those who spent big money on trips to Spain/Portugal (where-ever).
Surely people have travel insurance?
I genuinely do not see why our taxes should be used to bail out people who splashed major money on holidays like this- by all means get it back from the airlines if you're not going- but anyone who booked after the 12th March- its on them- it is not up to the taxpayer to bail them out. If you booked before the lockdown- its easier to argue you didn't know what was happening- after- nope, its on you.

Travel insurance won't pay out unless there are travel advisories in place. Nor will the airlines be obliged to refund. But I don't think anyone is suggesting the state should cover expenses of those who booked holidays.

Some clarity in messaging is definitely required.

MrMusician18 · 01-07-2020 09:49AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Sweetest divine - it's burial grounds now.

It's already a bloody roundabout.
A large roundabout with roads leading to a motorway, a tunnel, a city centre etc.

It is to be redeveloped.

This was last august

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/100m-dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-delayed-by-a-year-944273.html

They started work and then it stalled as the price wasn't agreed. Estimates have gone from €100m to €150m. It might not be ready for 10 years according the the construction fed. It is one interchange.
That is GUBU.
This from a gov that claimed to be fiscally responsible.

I am saying when things like this happen we need to reexamine the whole blasted process of tendering to avoid things like this happening -and you are talking about there might be burial grounds.

You might be happy with this level of lack of fiscal oversight but I am not - I don't believe in the Magic Money Tree.

It's not just a roundabout, it's a major interchange on the primary route to access Cork city. This junction needs to be kept open while the works progress as there is no viable alternative route for those traffic volumes. That makes this project extremely complicated.

When a construction budget needs to increase it's because something was missed, or something has been uncovered. If a project has to increase it's projected spend by 50% then it points to an expensive issue (like ground works) that's arisen during the detailed design. It's not as if, when the budget needs to increase that it's being pocketed for nothing by underhanded contractors.

I do think public procurement is slow, but I know why it is - but you clearly don't. The time given for each stage of the process is to ensure fairness for both the contractor and the awarding body. A tender for a complicated public works project will have tens of thousands of pages in it, that need to be gone through.

You seem to apparently have a better idea on how tendering should work and how you can make it fast and fair. So don't keep these great ideas to yourself, please share them with industry. In fact, I'll let them know to be ready, for Bannasidhe has a solution for the intractable tendering problem that's been bugging them for years...

RandomViewer · 01-07-2020 09:55AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

OK, just a note to the new minister or whoever is, responsible for public announcements.
I know two families heading for Spain in the next month or so, they've paid for their packages both in the 2000 euro mark area.
Now we have the cmo saying don't go, it's too dangerous.
Both of these families now feel guilt tripped about going and fear being ridiculed because of it.
They can't as yet get their money back and can't afford to pay for a staycation unless they do.
Someone needs to step in and clear this up please.

Sometimes you have to take the hit,

ELM327 · 01-07-2020 10:18AM

RandomViewer wrote: »

Sometimes you have to take the hit,

Not good enough.

Truthvader · 01-07-2020 10:45AM

ELM327 wrote: »

Not good enough.

Agreed. particularly if Ryanair are running promotions. Time for government to step in one way or the other. The hand wringing and "hoping" from the sidelines is just confusing

Bannasidhe · 01-07-2020 10:48AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's not just a roundabout, it's a major interchange on the primary route to access Cork city. This junction needs to be kept open while the works progress as there is no viable alternative route for those traffic volumes. That makes this project extremely complicated.

When a construction budget needs to increase it's because something was missed, or something has been uncovered. If a project has to increase it's projected spend by 50% then it points to an expensive issue (like ground works) that's arisen during the detailed design. It's not as if, when the budget needs to increase that it's being pocketed for nothing by underhanded contractors.

I do think public procurement is slow, but I know why it is - but you clearly don't. The time given for each stage of the process is to ensure fairness for both the contractor and the awarding body. A tender for a complicated public works project will have tens of thousands of pages in it, that need to be gone through.

You seem to apparently have a better idea on how tendering should work and how you can make it fast and fair. So don't keep these great ideas to yourself, please share them with industry. In fact, I'll let them know to be ready, for Bannasidhe has a solution for the intractable tendering problem that's been bugging them for years...

You apparently find it acceptable that costs continue to spiral.
I don't.
I find it strange that other countries seem to be able to not end up with the same level of delays and increased costs.
But sure - we know better here and they are doing it wrong.

James Brown · 01-07-2020 10:57AM

blanch152 wrote: »

None of those links support the specific allegation that you made which was as follows:

Plenty of figures but nothing to back you up.

They show they put more money into using the private market over building state owned social and affordable. That's the only point claimed.
This has been well covered. FG will tell you same.
Can you show they favored building state owned propetty over leasing and ppp builds? Can you f***.
It's a waste of money IMO.

The_Conductor · 01-07-2020 10:58AM

Truthvader wrote: »

Agreed. particularly if Ryanair are running promotions. Time for government to step in one way or the other. The hand wringing and "hoping" from the sidelines is just confusing

My sister took a Ryanair flight from Dublin to Lisbon on Sunday. It was jam packed and less than half the passengers had face masks on for the duration of the flight. Air hosts/hostesses sold drinks and food on the flight as normal- and there was no temperature checks or other health checks done in Lisbon on arrival.

We also have reciprochal mayhem coming in the other direction.

Note: my sister works there (and had for a number of years)- shes not there on holidays, she wasn't on a skite.

hardybuck · 01-07-2020 11:06AM

Podge_irl wrote: »

Travel insurance won't pay out unless there are travel advisories in place. Nor will the airlines be obliged to refund. But I don't think anyone is suggesting the state should cover expenses of those who booked holidays.

Some clarity in messaging is definitely required.

What's unclear?

The Chief Medical Officer doesn't recommend that you go, but you can make the decision to go if you want to - it isn't illegal.

Seems fairly straightforward to me.

FF/FG/Green Next Government

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