FF/FG/Green Next Government

James Brown · 30-06-2020 04:26PM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

They managed to make changes so bad this past decade that Health Service and Housing are both in their biggest crisis ever. God knows what it will be like in 2021 never mind a few years

Yes. We've no money again. Blast missed out on that strong growing economy, could have fixed loads. Ah sure next time. We need any money we have for the next quango or state project we let run monstrously over budget.
'Tis the circle of life FF/FG.

JohnnyFlash · 30-06-2020 04:31PM

Bowie wrote: »

Yes. We've no money again. Blast missed out on that strong growing economy, could have fixed loads. Ah sure next time. We need any money we have for the next quango or state project we let run monstrously over budget.
'Tis the circle of life FF/FG.

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

Issues around housing and the delivery of healthcare are issues that are impacting almost every mature social democracy in the world. People are living longer due to excellent healthcare, and if they do get sick then outcomes are very positive. This comes at enormous cost.

Housing is the same - people are living longer so the housing stock isn't being released to the market. Worldwide we see trends of people moving to cities which puts pressure on the housing markets in these cities. We also attract lots of overseas workers who come here to work in multinationals and in jobs that Irish people don't want to do.

No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Brendan Bendar · 30-06-2020 04:33PM

Bowie wrote: »

Yes. We've no money again. Blast missed out on that strong growing economy, could have fixed loads. Ah sure next time. We need any money we have for the next quango or state project we let run monstrously over budget.
'Tis the circle of life FF/FG.

Maybe we should cut the benefits from those able bodied lads and lassies roaring into mobile phones around every town and city in the country.

That might be a start anyway.......

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 04:36PM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Sure it will be grand

That does seem to be the plan.

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 04:46PM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

The SME's are saying they are in trouble. Many retail, hospitality etc won't survive without grant aid is their fear. That sector needs a dig out.
We are looking at a jump in those who will need social welfare which, as was tacitly acknowledged when the Cv19 payment was increased to €350, is not enough at the basic rate of €203. A situation where people lose their jobs due to CV19 related closures who then see their support reduced to less than €200 if SW was cut would be both a disaster in PR terms and the death knell for many SME's as the amount of disposable income in circulation is drastically reduced. SW payments are generally spend locally.

I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.

On Capital Investment - funding of that under FG has been to see the Magic Money Tree in action. The cost increases are never ending and the projects never finished.

To clarify - absolutely we need capital investment but not without the tender process being overhauled, a stop put to ever increasing costs, and the whole construction process streamlined so a few years not several years.

Edgware · 30-06-2020 05:51PM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

Issues around housing and the delivery of healthcare are issues that are impacting almost every mature social democracy in the world. People are living longer due to excellent healthcare, and if they do get sick then outcomes are very positive. This comes at enormous cost.

Housing is the same - people are living longer so the housing stock isn't being released to the market. Worldwide we see trends of people moving to cities which puts pressure on the housing markets in these cities. We also attract lots of overseas workers who come here to work in multinationals and in jobs that Irish people don't want to do.

No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Say it ain't so Krusty

Snow Garden · 30-06-2020 06:26PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The SME's are saying they are in trouble. Many retail, hospitality etc won't survive without grant aid is their fear. That sector needs a dig out.
We are looking at a jump in those who will need social welfare which, as was tacitly acknowledged when the Cv19 payment was increased to €350, is not enough at the basic rate of €203. A situation where people lose their jobs due to CV19 related closures who then see their support reduced to less than €200 if SW was cut would be both a disaster in PR terms and the death knell for many SME's as the amount of disposable income in circulation is drastically reduced. SW payments are generally spend locally.

I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.

On Capital Investment - funding of that under FG has been to see the Magic Money Tree in action. The cost increases are never ending and the projects never finished.

To clarify - absolutely we need capital investment but not without the tender process being overhauled, a stop put to ever increasing costs, and the whole construction process streamlined so a few years not several years.

You are making the most sense on this forum by a country mile. Great posting.

Geuze · 30-06-2020 06:33PM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

All social welfare rates (excl. pensions) were cut twice during the Great Financial Crisis 2009-2012.

James Brown · 30-06-2020 07:07PM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

Issues around housing and the delivery of healthcare are issues that are impacting almost every mature social democracy in the world. People are living longer due to excellent healthcare, and if they do get sick then outcomes are very positive. This comes at enormous cost.

Housing is the same - people are living longer so the housing stock isn't being released to the market. Worldwide we see trends of people moving to cities which puts pressure on the housing markets in these cities. We also attract lots of overseas workers who come here to work in multinationals and in jobs that Irish people don't want to do.

No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Matt, all I hear is some of the reasons we have a problem.
You neglected to mention spending money on 25 year leases and PPP's for build to privately rent housing. In fact you've not addressed government housing policy overseeing making matters worse. Dawg.

I hope FF change this.

Bishop of hope · 30-06-2020 07:48PM

Bowie wrote: »

Matt, all I hear is some of the reasons we have a problem.
You neglected to mention spending money on 25 year leases and PPP's for build to privately rent housing. In fact you've not addressed government housing policy overseeing making matters worse. Dawg.

I hope FF change this.

Whose Matt?
Are you talking to yourself there?

Truthvader · 30-06-2020 08:19PM

Bowie wrote: »

Matt, all I hear is some of the reasons we have a problem.
You neglected to mention spending money on 25 year leases and PPP's for build to privately rent housing. In fact you've not addressed government housing policy overseeing making matters worse. Dawg.

I hope FF change this.

Are we really back to this nonsense again? The big fantasy international conspiracy of bankers and freemasons . And de English no doubt; to make sure the Irish never build any more houses forever

MrMusician18 · 30-06-2020 08:42PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The SME's are saying they are in trouble. Many retail, hospitality etc won't survive without grant aid is their fear. That sector needs a dig out.
We are looking at a jump in those who will need social welfare which, as was tacitly acknowledged when the Cv19 payment was increased to €350, is not enough at the basic rate of €203. A situation where people lose their jobs due to CV19 related closures who then see their support reduced to less than €200 if SW was cut would be both a disaster in PR terms and the death knell for many SME's as the amount of disposable income in circulation is drastically reduced. SW payments are generally spend locally.

I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.

On Capital Investment - funding of that under FG has been to see the Magic Money Tree in action. The cost increases are never ending and the projects never finished.

To clarify - absolutely we need capital investment but not without the tender process being overhauled, a stop put to ever increasing costs, and the whole construction process streamlined so a few years not several years.

I'm going to enjoy you telling us how the government can make concrete set faster.

Or maybe it's regulations. Which one of those would to like to see cut? Health and Safety? Minimum accommodation standards? Planning appeals and process? Guillotined tendering which ensures unfair competition and higher prices?

I'm absolutely sick of people spouting the kind of solutions that literally amount to wishful thinking. If a long standing problem exists with a process it's usually because the competing interests make it difficult to solve. In construction, faster builds mean lower standards and/or higher costs.

James Brown · 30-06-2020 08:43PM

Truthvader wrote: »

Are we really back to this nonsense again? The big fantasy international conspiracy of bankers and freemasons . And de English no doubt; to make sure the Irish never build any more houses forever

Commenting on the fact that the FG government preferred 25 year leases and PPP's built to rent. Unless you have other information?

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 09:03PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm going to enjoy you telling us how the government can make concrete set faster.

Or maybe it's regulations. Which one of those would to like to see cut? Health and Safety? Minimum accommodation standards? Planning appeals and process? Guillotined tendering which ensures unfair competition and higher prices?

I'm absolutely sick of people spouting the kind of solutions that literally amount to wishful thinking. If a long standing problem exists with a process it's usually because the competing interests make it difficult to solve. In construction, faster builds mean lower standards and/or higher costs.

It has nothing to do with the rate at which concrete sets.

The Dunkettle Interchange in Cork is a prime example.
Went out to tender - work due to begin in 2018. It still hasn't started. It is already running a year behind schedule.

Sisk won the two-stage contract for the upgrade in 2018 but the project was delayed last August when it emerged that TII and Sisk had failed to reach agreement on forecasted costs for the main construction element.

Complex ground conditions across the vast construction site were blamed for an increased cost estimate.

Reports at the time suggested the overall costs could now range from anywhere between €115m to up to €170m.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-due-to-begin-in-autumn-1004451.html

The cost of the new children's hospital is now running at nearly €500m above the estimated costs approved by govt 3 years ago.
It is still unclear who will actually own it - but either way we are paying for it.

Both project already approved. Both continually delayed. MM was asking about the hospital back in Jan. Costs of both spiraling.

MrMusician18 · 30-06-2020 09:23PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It has nothing to do with the rate at which concrete sets.

The Dunkettle Interchange in Cork is a prime example.
Went out to tender - work due to begin in 2018. It still hasn't started. It is already running a year behind schedule.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-due-to-begin-in-autumn-1004451.html

The cost of the new children's hospital is now running at nearly €500m above the estimated costs approved by govt 3 years ago.
It is still unclear who will actually own it - but either way we are paying for it.

Both project already approved. Both continually delayed. MM was asking about the hospital back in Jan. Costs of both spiraling.

In the case of Dunkettle, do you care to think why it might be delayed? Delaying is usually in no one's interest, so they are usually for a very good reason. The main project didn't go to tender in 2018, it went last year and tenders were returned in April. The tender assessment is due to be complete by September and the main construction works start shortly after.

Public procurement is slow because it has to be fair and be seen to be fair. Yes, it's it was a private developer building this it or something similarly complex would be done by now, but they don't have to worry about getting the best value for the public purse.

Water John · 30-06-2020 09:35PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It has nothing to do with the rate at which concrete sets.

The Dunkettle Interchange in Cork is a prime example.
Went out to tender - work due to begin in 2018. It still hasn't started. It is already running a year behind schedule.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-due-to-begin-in-autumn-1004451.html

The cost of the new children's hospital is now running at nearly €500m above the estimated costs approved by govt 3 years ago.
It is still unclear who will actually own it - but either way we are paying for it.

Both project already approved. Both continually delayed. MM was asking about the hospital back in Jan. Costs of both spiraling.

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

JohnnyFlash · 30-06-2020 09:40PM

Water John wrote: »

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

Which will come in handy when we start to charge for water usage, as we should with any utility offering that costs money to produce and supply.

LawBoy2018 · 30-06-2020 09:53PM

Anyone watching tonight VMTV? Aodhán Ó Ríordáin coming across very badly imo.

Bishop of hope · 30-06-2020 09:53PM

Them é voting machines will come in handy when we start voting electronically too.
The water meters will need replacing before we are charging for water too.

Water John · 30-06-2020 10:01PM

A brave/foolhardy politician that will revisit the water charges issue.

mgn · 30-06-2020 10:01PM

Water John wrote: »

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

It doesn't seem like much now when you have the Greens going spending a million a day on cycle lanes for the duration of this government.

blanch152 · 30-06-2020 10:08PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Really?
This was Sat 13th June and it certainly does not say that most schools are well advanced. The theme seems to be schools aren't sure what the hell is happening and teachers are not happy.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/teachers-alarmed-at-plan-to-reopen-schools-without-social-distancing-1.4277915

They are discussing children not attending everyday - what exactly do working parents do on the day children are not in school? Where is the plan for that?
https://www.thejournal.ie/schools-reopening-ireland-social-distancing-5121318-Jun2020/

The latest plan I read (12th June) was partial attendance.
Will there be a situation in late August where a family with a boy and girl each is a single sex primary school and an older child who has just begun secondary are faced with the primary school children attending 2.5 days a week but not the same 2.5 days (supposing 1 metre rule - it's 2 days if 2 metres remains), the secondary school is 50% - is that all morning? Afternoons? 2.5 days? It could end up with at least one child off school every day- how are working parent's meant to co-ordinate this? How are schools?

If it was September 1st tomorrow, kids would be going five days a week.

Obviously, numbers will play a part, but that’s the way it will be so long as we don’t increase the numbers. Of course there are still questions, but talking to a number of principals, preparations are advanced.

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 10:11PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In the case of Dunkettle, do you care to think why it might be delayed? Delaying is usually in no one's interest, so they are usually for a very good reason. The main project didn't go to tender in 2018, it went last year and tenders were returned in April. The tender assessment is due to be complete by September and the main construction works start shortly after.

Public procurement is slow because it has to be fair and be seen to be fair. Yes, it's it was a private developer building this it or something similarly complex would be done by now, but they don't have to worry about getting the best value for the public purse.

If it is running a year behind schedule - which it is - then something is very wrong with the whole process.
If it didn't start on the date it was due -which it didn't- then something is very wrong with the whole process.
If the costs are increasing at a rate of 10s of millions - which they are - then something is very wrong with the process.

If private developers could get it done on time and on budget but private contractors who tender can't - there is something very wrong with the process.

But ok - shrug and accept it if you want.
I think we deserve better.

blanch152 · 30-06-2020 10:13PM

Bowie wrote: »

Commenting on the fact that the FG government preferred 25 year leases and PPP's built to rent. Unless you have other information?

To show that the government preferred 25 year leases and PPP’s build to rent, you would have to demonstrate, using links, that these were the majority of government-funded projects, rather than exceptional occasional solutions. Without such proof, it would be fair comment to suggest that your post outlines a conspiracy theory.

Note: Robust demolition of a nonsensical conspiracy theory does not equate to a personal attack.

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 10:16PM

Water John wrote: »

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

Electronic voting machines. Remember those? €54m
Or Ppars -€220m
Tribunals/Inquiries have cost close to €500m to date and the PfG is just hopping with 'promises' to have more.

blanch152 · 30-06-2020 10:17PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In the case of Dunkettle, do you care to think why it might be delayed? Delaying is usually in no one's interest, so they are usually for a very good reason. The main project didn't go to tender in 2018, it went last year and tenders were returned in April. The tender assessment is due to be complete by September and the main construction works start shortly after.

Public procurement is slow because it has to be fair and be seen to be fair. Yes, it's it was a private developer building this it or something similarly complex would be done by now, but they don't have to worry about getting the best value for the public purse.

This is a very good point. Too often we have the same posters complaining about cronyism and Denis O’Brien, while lamenting the slow progress of projects. They don’t have a clue about procurement.

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 10:20PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If it was September 1st tomorrow, kids would be going five days a week.

Obviously, numbers will play a part, but that’s the way it will be so long as we don’t increase the numbers. Of course there are still questions, but talking to a number of principals, preparations are advanced.

It's July 1st tomorrow and we are being warned of a possible second wave.
The June 12th plan is still the only plan to date.
It does not address childcare for the not at school days at all.

Let's see what Foley produces before leaping to September and confidently predicting children attending school full time.

blanch152 · 30-06-2020 10:23PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It's July 1st tomorrow and we are being warned of a possible second wave.
The June 12th plan is still the only plan to date.
It does not address childcare for the not at school days at all.

Let's see what Foley produces before leaping to September and confidently predicting children attending school full time.

It is the only plan so far, but there are enough hints in the public pronouncements to understand where they expect to be come September. So long as the numbers stay low, all kids will be back full-time.

Bannasidhe · 30-06-2020 10:27PM

blanch152 wrote: »

This is a very good point. Too often we have the same posters complaining about cronyism and Denis O’Brien, while lamenting the slow progress of projects. They don’t have a clue about procurement.

And yet this poster hasn't complained about either so that's a wasted little dig.

This poster has complained about projects that have been green lit, start date agreed but constantly being delayed, costs estimated and costs spiraling before work has even begun.

Perhaps it's the people giving the green light to begin who don't have a clue since they seem to not be able to give a commencement date that is even in the realms of accurate or an estimated costs that is in the ballpark of actual costs.

Truthvader · 30-06-2020 10:28PM

blanch152 wrote: »

This is a very good point. Too often we have the same posters complaining about cronyism and Denis O’Brien, while lamenting the slow progress of projects. They don’t have a clue about procurement.

To be fair I have yet to see any poster have less of a clue than whoever is in charge of the hospital

FF/FG/Green Next Government

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