FF/FG/Green Next Government

Edgware wrote: »

Martin will probably stand down as F.F. leader before the next election and Dara will be in a very strong position to take the leadership

I can see Martin standing down after he completes his stint as shortest Taoiseach, head to the back benches and not be seen or heard from for his remaining time in the Dail, similar to what Kenny and Noonan did in the last Dail.

jmayo wrote: »

Actually Martin might throw some crumbs to Mayo so that he placates the local organisation that has told him not to show his nose in the county.

But Martin will be stood down, the knives are out.
He is picking up enemies at a rate of knots at this stage.

Also expect ff to throw their junior ministers to the West probably with Anne Rabitte and Marc MacSharry given gigs.

The only other options are McConalogue in Donegal and O'Cuiv in Galway West.
And there is no way O'Cuiv will get anything no more than McGuinnness.
Actually McGuinness I would say is head and shoulders above most if not of the fianna failers that are anywhere near the cabinet.

Further South you have Crowe in Clare, O'Dea in Limerick City and Collins in Limerick County.
Not sure Martin wants to have O'Dea around to remind everyone of the old days and Collins might be too close geographically to Kerry minister for his own good.

Ciaran Cannon (FG) in Galway East will also probably get a junior ministry.

jmayo wrote: »

Actually Martin might throw some crumbs to Mayo so that he placates the local organisation that has told him not to show his nose in the county.

But Martin will be stood down, the knives are out.
He is picking up enemies at a rate of knots at this stage.

Also expect ff to throw their junior ministers to the West probably with Anne Rabitte and Marc MacSharry given gigs.

The only other options are McConalogue in Donegal and O'Cuiv in Galway West.
And there is no way O'Cuiv will get anything no more than McGuinnness.
Actually McGuinness I would say is head and shoulders above most if not of the fianna failers that are anywhere near the cabinet.

Further South you have Crowe in Clare, O'Dea in Limerick City and Collins in Limerick County.
Not sure Martin wants to have O'Dea around to remind everyone of the old days and Collins might be too close geographically to Kerry minister for his own good.

Time to clear out that lot of dinosaurs.

Martin is dead right , shake those churns up, have had it too easy.

Ruling their areas like feudal lords, Nah, mate, good riddance.

90% of the populace never heard of Calleary up to this.

Not doubting the man but much ado about nothing.

CrankyHaus wrote: »

Have to agree. The idea of spending a decade claiming that you're de-toxifying Fianna Fail, and then throwing the likes of Willie O'Dea into Government first chance you get, is ridiculous. MM has the national image of the party to consider, and it's not helped by a gang of Tull McAdoo's indulging illusions that they're kingmakers.Whatever about the death of FF, nothing will speed its demise faster than partying like it's 1999.

I honestly think it's too little to late for FF.
Their one chance was to stamp their name all over this govt but instead it looks very much like FG called the shots and took the big ticket posts while FF got the pool of death.
Unless Donnelly can pull off a miracle in Health, ditto O'Brien in Housing, and Foley can come up with a workable plan for reopening schools they are toast.
They have 2 years while FG are waiting in the wings to swoop in and 'take control' to sort out another FF mess (they hope) - it's tradition.

CrankyHaus wrote: »

Have to agree. The idea of spending a decade claiming that you're de-toxifying Fianna Fail, and then throwing the likes of Willie O'Dea into Government first chance you get, is ridiculous. MM has the national image of the party to consider, and it's not helped by a gang of Tull McAdoo's indulging illusions that they're kingmakers.Whatever about the death of FF, nothing will speed its demise faster than partying like it's 1999.

Which is great in theory until you look at who he did give jobs to. Acquiescing to FG is what happened here.

An urban-centric cabinet and FF getting the blame for it. You can dress it up anyway you want but it is FF 0 - FG 1.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Not sure. I reckon as this government goes on and (hopefully) the immediate medical emergency recedes, the poll ratings of FF and FG will even up.

Health was already in crises before Covid hit and when the emergency recedes what will be left is an even larger backlog than before plus HCW's who are pretty angry at the way they feel they have been treated. Not to to mention the money will need to be found to backpay the increases awarded to nurses.

Housing is another long running nightmare. Compounded by this AIB bombshell

AIB has introduced wide-ranging restrictions on mortgage lending in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, internal documents seen by The Irish Times reveal.

They include a de-facto ban on mortgage lending to those in receipt of State wage subsidies and extra scrutiny on applications from people working in “high risk” sectors of the economy.

The changes, which will extend to its specialist mortgage lenders EBS and Haven, were described as “frightening” by one mortgage market source, who added it would have “huge ramifications”

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-introduces-frightening-mortgage-rules-and-halts-lending-to-covid-payment-recipients-1.4290956

People who had committed to buying a house are unable to draw down their mortgage to close the sale. People in "high risk" sectors may find themselves shut out.

And the schools - there is already uproar that there is no plan yet to guide the schools on social distancing and won't be til later in the summer. have read the roadmap and it's long on discussing impacts and outlining what steps will need to be implemented but lacking in practical advice, costing, funding etc.
It will have to be one helluva plan tbh and schools need time to get ready.

When the emergency is over (and that could be a very long time as this virus is not going away soon and the CMO is expressing concern over foreign travel so looks like he fears a surge in Autumn) is when the manure will hit the exact fans FF are holding.

blanch152 wrote: »

The schools one is easy. All the health advice has to say is that kids are not vectors of the disease, and don't have to social distance once they are in pods of 30 or less. Adults supervising them should social distance.

So schools can open, with the main issues being around staff rooms and lunch breaks for the adults as well as SNAs in classrooms.

Most schools are well advanced on planning for that and can cope.

Really?
This was Sat 13th June and it certainly does not say that most schools are well advanced. The theme seems to be schools aren't sure what the hell is happening and teachers are not happy.

The Teachers’ Union of Ireland (TUI) criticised the reopening plans as “odd and alarming”, saying they paid “insufficient attention to public health advice”.

“Classrooms are workplaces – crowded ones at that. These workplaces cannot be treated as if they enjoy some magical immunity from the risk that characterises other workplaces,” TUI president Séamus Laharte said.

The Association of Secondary Teachers Ireland said it would be very concerned if physical distancing in schools deviated from what existed in wider society.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/teachers-alarmed-at-plan-to-reopen-schools-without-social-distancing-1.4277915

They are discussing children not attending everyday - what exactly do working parents do on the day children are not in school? Where is the plan for that?
https://www.thejournal.ie/schools-reopening-ireland-social-distancing-5121318-Jun2020/

The latest plan I read (12th June) was partial attendance.
Will there be a situation in late August where a family with a boy and girl each is a single sex primary school and an older child who has just begun secondary are faced with the primary school children attending 2.5 days a week but not the same 2.5 days (supposing 1 metre rule - it's 2 days if 2 metres remains), the secondary school is 50% - is that all morning? Afternoons? 2.5 days? It could end up with at least one child off school every day- how are working parent's meant to co-ordinate this? How are schools?

It will be very difficult to make substantive changes to health and housing if we are running enormous budget deficits, have 20% unemployment rates, and have Brexit looming.

Money doesn't grow on trees, and we are facing into some of the most extraordinary challenges we have faced as a country since our foundation. We will be borrowing heavily (pushing that can down the road for the next generations to sort out); there might be some level of debt write-off, and we will be able to tap into EU funds if they can all agree on that (that will come with its own condition though like tax harmonisation across the EU).

It's about the economy, stupid, as James Carville once quipped.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

They managed to make changes so bad this past decade that Health Service and Housing are both in their biggest crisis ever. God knows what it will be like in 2021 never mind a few years

Well unless the vested interests and the Unions don’t change you could be correct.

You see, my friend EVERYBODY has all the ‘answers’ except for their own area.

You have been taken in by the vested interests, my friend along with many other gullible but basically good people, and have not drilled into the real reasons why Health was called ‘Angola’

There is a reason for everything,a chara.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Its this kind of attitude of patronizing superiority which is very annoying on here.

We are FG/FF we are better than you

It’s fact unfortunately, what you infer from posts is your own inference.

Maybe you could do better to address the points made .