General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

How long before Sinn Fein, various leftwing factions and rural Independent TD's unite to bring down this Government. It won't take much to get massive protests going and this Government have a majority of 4 TD's, the law of averages suggests one or two will die, some sleazeballs will resign, Fianna Fail full of corruption, some will jump ship to save their own bacon. With enough unrest and agitation they can be got rid of.

I voted for Fine Gael but I'll vote for Sinn Fein next time over this because what we have seen is anti-democratic, the biggest Party SF should have been involved and I could see SF/FG/FF as a pragmatic Unity Government with a rotating Taoiseach between Mary Lou, Leo and Micheal.

FG have really dropped the soap on this one, they could have gone back to the country for an election and returned with 60+ seats and formed a Govt on their own, instead they have put corrupt Fianna Fail into power and kept the democratically elected SF out of power.

With a collapsed economy in depression, no immigration safety valve and an international protest culture with BLM unrest is inevitable. Sinn Fein will surge to 60-70+ seats in the next election which will come within 12 months while FG instead of securing a near majority will be annihilated with FG and FF barely sharing 40 seats between them.

The Greens and Fianna Fail will break the middle class camels back and SF will reap the rewards in a Trumpian protest type election. It will take an economic miracle to save FFG now.

theguzman wrote: »

How long before Sinn Fein, various leftwing factions and rural Independent TD's unite to bring down this Government. It won't take much to get massive protests going and this Government have a majority of 4 TD's, the law of averages suggests one or two will die, some sleazeballs will resign, Fianna Fail full of corruption, some will jump ship to save their own bacon. With enough unrest and agitation they can be got rid of.

I voted for Fine Gael but I'll vote for Sinn Fein next time over this because what we have seen is anti-democratic, the biggest Party SF should have been involved and I could see SF/FG/FF as a pragmatic Unity Government with a rotating Taoiseach between Mary Lou, Leo and Micheal.

FG have really dropped the soap on this one, they could have gone back to the country for an election and returned with 60+ seats and formed a Govt on their own, instead they have put corrupt Fianna Fail into power and kept the democratically elected SF out of power.

With a collapsed economy in depression, no immigration safety valve and an international protest culture with BLM unrest is inevitable. Sinn Fein will surge to 60-70+ seats in the next election which will come within 12 months while FG instead of securing a near majority will be annihilated with FG and FF barely sharing 40 seats between them.

The Greens and Fianna Fail will break the middle class camels back and SF will reap the rewards in a Trumpian protest type election. It will take an economic miracle to save FFG now.

How exactly would opposition TDs unite to bring down the government? It would take a particularly brave FF/FG/GP TD to go against their party like that and lose party support let alone multiples.

Also, you voted for FG? And you are surpised they didn't talk to SF? I smell a rat to be honest as anyone with even the slightest interest in politics and indeed those with none would have known that FG made a point of saying they would NEVER go in with SF. And yet you sound like that came as a shock to you?

As for SF surging to 60-70 seats? Laughable comment, take a look at some of their current TDs and their past attempts at vote management to see how likely that is.

Deleted User wrote: »

They will definitely get more votes in the mid west, west and North west of Ireland after this.

If you think not having a single minister west of the Shannon is not important just listen to every local radio station in the region next week. Those listeners are the voters.

Major mistake by MM. Calleary is been ridiculed locally already, deputy leader of FF and doesn't even have a vote at cabinet. Eamon O'Cuiv will be smiling tonight MM played right into his hands.

The Pale and Cork running the country again.

I'm not really sure how any of this relates to my comment but sure ok. I'm not going to waste time speculating how people will vote in 5 years time and i'd recommend anyone else thinking about it not to bother. No one could have foreseen the last GEs outcome up to a week in advance, lets not try and pretend to know what one in 5 years is going to look like.

My point was its laughable to say with such confidence that SF will have 60+ plus seats next time.

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't expect they will either, but they are the only opposition now. Also can't see this government lasting anywhere near full term, they have a majority of 4.

They don't stand a chance of winning any by-election outside of Dublin or Cork.

I'm sorry but you are now doing exactly what the poster I called out was doing by saying they have no chance of winning a by-election outside of Dublin or Cork. That is based on absolutely nothing other than your apparent belief that anyone who doesn't have a minister suddenly deciding they are SF/PBP/LAB voters?

Deleted User wrote: »

Based on the reality that people will be angry on the absolute lack of balance at the cabinet. Half the country has no representation at cabinet. Can you imagine nobody from Leinster at cabinet.

By Elections in general are protest votes. There will be complete apathy by FF & FG voters outside of Dublin and Cork after this. I'm a FG supporter, even talking to FF voters and campaigners this evening they are disgusted at MM.

The same FF campiagners who backed this PfG by 70+ percent? Lets not mistake your hearsay and anecdotal evidence for hard facts.

Lets take a look at your map shall we; the following counties will also apparently suddenly decry FF/FG/GP due to a lack of ministers; Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath, Laois, Galway, Mayo, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford, Waterford, Limerick, Tipperary, Clare.

I've probably missed one or two in there as well but in comparison to 2016 which had Kenny (briefly), Dennis Naughton and Noonan are the only additional ministers, covering Limerick and Galway. So lets not make any sweeping statements around supporters dropping off due to a lack of minsterial position because it is nothing other than speculation.

hardybuck wrote: »

It would seem both the blaa and the farl are unacceptable as the South East doesn't have a Minister either!

Waterford city hasn't had one in over a decade.

Deleted User wrote: »

By Elections in general are protest votes. There will be complete apathy by FF & FG voters outside of Dublin and Cork after this. I'm a FG supporter, even talking to FF voters and campaigners this evening they are disgusted at MM. If there was a by election tomorrow in Mayo a 2nd SF TD would be elected, i'd expect the same pattern in lots of other constituencies.

With Waterford (the entire county, including the city) at 2% of population and Mayo at 2.5%, why would you expect them to have a Minister in a Cabinet of 17?

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

With Waterford (the entire county, including the city) at 2% of population and Mayo at 2.5%, why would you expect them to have a Minister in a Cabinet of 17?

I don't.

But another poster is incredulous at an area of the country not having one. I'm reminding them that this is normal, evidenced by one of Ireland's 5 cities not having one in over a decade, and the South East region not having one in current and last Governments.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It shouldn't, buy nearly always does. Your forgetting FF are back in government.

Do you just miss Ringer who gave 10-12% of his Department's funding to projects in Mayo, and came out with beauties like "I love money and I love spending it"!?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He was minister for rural development, im surprised it wasn't more.

One of the best examples of a Minister who lavished money on his own constituency.

Erin McGreehan - 1 year a Councillor and now elected to Seanad Eireann by Micheal Martin.
Nice cushy number followed by a pension for someone just into politics.

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

You know the difference between a photocopier and a printer, right?

Ehh most photocopiers these days are also printers and scanners.

Is this the first time a deputy leader of a major party failed to get a ministerial portfolio?

martin is going to have to watch his back.

And when people harp on about giving the jobs to the best individuals how does that explain Foley, first time TD at 3rd or 4th time of asking, getting a major ministerial job?

sinn fein must be licking their lips as it leaves huge chunk of country with no ministerial post.
And it isn't just about Mayo, it is about entire Western seaboard, bar Kerry, right into Offaly with no one.
It is about population of over 1 million without any minister to represent any of their areas.

And when people ask why it is important, it is because central government control all the real spending in this country.

It is two major cities with no cabinet say whats so ever.

Central government decide on major infrastructure projects, central government can decide on the fate of airports of which 4 now have no cabinet representation anywhere near them.
Central government controls HSE.
Well supposedly at least.

Watch the results from next European election for Midlands/North West constituency if there hasn't been major change in this.

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh most photocopiers these days are also printers and scanners.

There's a difference between a printer that can print 100 A4 pages double sided, and a printer that can print a 200 page booklet on glossy paper with a hard cover
and bind it.