General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

I think the 66% is a bridge too far for the Greens, I think they'll reject it and it won't even be that close. If they fail to break the 50 for even a simple majority indicator then its all over for them, no chance of renegotiation.

I hope they do reject it actually, they've shown they haven't the stomach and the party discipline for the fight. And the economic situation for the next few years will be bare knuckle stuff.

What then? Hard to say. All of a sudden a fresh general election won't be appealing to anyone except FG, and in any case Michael D could refuse to dissolve DÉ on the advice of an acting Taoiseach without further efforts being made.

My money is on a Green rejection and a series of deals with less extreme independents, starting with Marian Harkin, Michael Lowry, Cathal Berry, Denis Naughten, Michael McNamara, Michael Collins, Sean Canney.

Sam Russell wrote: »

If you do not agree with basic party policy, then how can you remain in the party?

There appears to be a lot of Green Party activists who are more interested in policies more like PBP or Arise, or other left wing ginger groups than the environmental objectives of the GP.

It's a bit puzzling about these GP members who reckon the Party's policy isn't "Left Wing" enough. If their main priority is left-wing politics why don't they join a party that places more value on social issues than the environment?
It's not like the UK where for the most part you've 2 main parties so if you want something done you've to get into one of the parties and change it from the inside so that the party's weight is thrown behind your issue.

There's many parties to choose from in Ireland that would better suit their needs, but I presume they saw the writing on the wall regarding how the environment would become a bigger issue in future so latched onto the Greens.

Don't be surprised if Michael Martin runs to Sinn Fein if the Greens reject this later. He's desperate to be taoiseach, he'll do anything.

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think the 66% is a bridge too far for the Greens, I think they'll reject it and it won't even be that close. If they fail to break the 50 for even a simple majority indicator then its all over for them, no chance of renegotiation.

I hope they do reject it actually, they've shown they haven't the stomach and the party discipline for the fight. And the economic situation for the next few years will be bare knuckle stuff.

What then? Hard to say. All of a sudden a fresh general election won't be appealing to anyone except FG, and in any case Michael D could refuse to dissolve DÉ on the advice of an acting Taoiseach without further efforts being made.

My money is on a Green rejection and a series of deals with less extreme independents, starting with Marian Harkin, Michael Lowry, Cathal Berry, Denis Naughten, Michael McNamara, Michael Collins, Sean Canney.

That's still a monstrous number of Independents to try and keep in line though, and it's often been said that realistically you need a handful over 80 TDs as a safety margin.

I know once bought they tend to stay bought, and no one independent will want to be the one to bring down the government but it wouldn't surprise me if a few of those independents formed a wishy-washy group with a very generic name as a form of collective security and started making more demands, especially when public opinion turns against the government.

Anything to do with driving laws will be impossible to pass, and while it won't be as green as the Greens' plans, any new government will still want some environmental initiatives brought in which the independents will vote against. Then you've unforeseen issues like the farmer's protest where the independents will feel a need to take action and could hold the government to ransom.

It all just sounds too precarious.

Larbre34 wrote: »

My money is on a Green rejection and a series of deals with less extreme independents, starting with Marian Harkin, Michael Lowry, Cathal Berry, Denis Naughten, Michael McNamara, Michael Collins, Sean Canney.

I don't know, I think if the Greens reject this, FG will say they did everything possible to form a Government and have no choice but to go for another election, one they should win pretty handy given their Polls and Leo's popularity. All they had to do was make every reasonable effort to secure a Gov, then hold their hands up, and say election it is, allowing people to blame the Greens for the new election, and not FG directly. We shall see!

Downlinz wrote: »

I think an actual convicted criminal is as extreme as it gets. :pac:

Not really. Dessie Ellis and Martin Ferris and a few others are as extreme as if gets. Lowry may be pond scum to most people but his conviction doesn't preclude his membership of DÉ and therefore his vote is as good as any.

Fiach Kelly reporting that Green approval is "over 70%" .

All three agreed

Sickened by Micheal Martin as Taioseach tbh, he gave a standing ovation and spent years defending Bertie Ahern when he was claiming to have no bank account/Paddy the Plasterer/Won it on the horses etc, he's a scumbag. Why dont we hear RTE questioning that? What improvements is he going to bring to the table? He's the man to solve the housing/rental crisis?

Gooey Looey wrote:

This isn't the change people voted for!

More people voted for this type of thing than for a change so this is what you get.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Who writes this garbage?

Paper of record - my a*se.

Those mistakes are ridiculous but in fairness it's a liveblog not an article, so it probably wasn't seen by an editor.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Do they have proof readers any more, or are tose mistakes proof enough that the do not?

I'm not sure they ever did for a liveblog, it's the equivalent of a news anchor live ad-libbing and making a mistake.