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Property Market 2020

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    #9032
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    IsErik wrote: »
    They could be saving a hefty deposit simultaneously, if prices do in fact drop and they have a big deposit they will not have to borrow as much and likely capitalize in the drop in interest rates, it is expected that some mortgage rates in Ireland may drop to 1.6-1.8% to combat the recession.



    1300 is a crazy high mortgage imo.

    Well that's a nonsense statement.
    Without knowing the context, type of house, location, term, interest rate, income you can never make that.
    Taking it in isolation I'd say that is close enough to average mortgage repayments in any of the major cities.
    It's roughly 310k at 3 percent over 30 years or 190k at 3 percent over 15 years.


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    #9033
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    You'd want to be an eejit not to think there are extremely hard times ahead for many. It is unfortunately a given.

    In relation to increased prices and questionable ability of people to pay. The state have to step in an fix the clusterfcuks that are the insurance industry and in general the costs to do business in the country.


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    #9034
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    In my country we dont have any bids on property price.The price on estate agency website is solid and that how much property cost.If I see the property for 100K that how much property cost I leave deposit to property owner and in number of days we go to solicitor were sale/ownership of the property take couple days on cash sale basis when in Ireland this take months ! If property owner got better offer before sale he must pay me my deposit back with same amount on top depends on contract of pre sale he signed on .There is no jocks like sorry but price is higher than you see.I heard one story from guy ( from Eastern Europe ) who bought house in Ireland when he been told that property at 160 000 actually cost 175 000.He simply left his phone nr to agency and told them he offering them 160 000 and they has 2 weeks for thinking.He bought this house for 160 000 and sale / ownership took 8 months ! Which he spent in property renting when he bought a house already ! The guy in Finland bought house trough the bank / mortgage and he was a house owner in 2 days ! How I gonna buy house in Ireland ? I gonna make offer and give agency couple weeks for thinking before I did not find another I not gonna play any bids.


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    #9035
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    kippy wrote: »
    You'd want to be an eejit not to think there are extremely hard times ahead for many. It is unfortunately a given.

    In relation to increased prices and questionable ability of people to pay. The state have to step in an fix the clusterfcuks that are the insurance industry and in general the costs to do business in the country.


    This. The global economy is going to fall off a cliff, there is not a chance the Irish property market will not be impacted to some extent, the only stumbling block i see preventing a drop of 20% or more is lack of supply. I think 15% is reasonable and no recovery to begin until atleast late 2023.


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    #9036
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    IsErik wrote: »
    This. The global economy is going to fall off a cliff, there is not a chance the Irish property market will not be impacted to some extent, the only stumbling block i see preventing a drop of 20% or more is lack of supply. I think 15% is reasonable and no recovery to begin until atleast late 2023.

    I think there will be no recovery that soon.The first at all we all will have pay our wage subsidies / Covid payments back to government.There will be more new taxes introduced and existing increased the middle class in Ireland will be badly hit.People will loose them savings when they will lose jobs and wage subsidies/mortgage holidays will be removed.The some shops in small towns are still closed since 2008 in some towns there is streets of them what shows that country still did not recover since last recession.The only place booming in Ireland was Dublin and now this place will be in total mess.Its just a matter of time when banks will increase deposits for those who will want take mortgage,in my country they went from 20 to 40 per cent !


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    #9037
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    neutral guy wrote: »
    In my country we dont have any bids on property price.The price on estate agency website is solid and that how much property cost.If I see the property for 100K that how much property cost I leave deposit to property owner and in number of days we go to solicitor were sale/ownership of the property take couple days on cash sale basis when in Ireland this take months ! If property owner got better offer before sale he must pay me my deposit back with same amount on top depends on contract of pre sale he signed on .There is no jocks like sorry but price is higher than you see.I heard one story from guy ( from Eastern Europe ) who bought house in Ireland when he been told that property at 160 000 actually cost 175 000.He simply left his phone nr to agency and told them he offering them 160 000 and they has 2 weeks for thinking.He bought this house for 160 000 and sale / ownership took 8 months ! Which he spent in property renting when he bought a house already ! The guy in Finland bought house trough the bank / mortgage and he was a house owner in 2 days ! How I gonna buy house in Ireland ? I gonna make offer and give agency couple weeks for thinking before I did not find another I not gonna play any bids.

    The Irish property market is dysfunctional because the legal system is dysfunctional. This is probably deliberate as it increases costs and pays for a lot of solicitors bread and butter.


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    #9038
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    cnocbui wrote: »
    The Irish property market is dysfunctional because the legal system is dysfunctional. This is probably deliberate as it increases costs and pays for a lot of solicitors bread and butter.
    For me its looks more likely bank give money to the agency and agency use those money for investment/borrowing/lending getting profit on it before those money finally goes to the property owner and buyer getting the key.


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    #9039
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Interesting times; two markets are not collapsing and experts desperately hoping to take advantage of those markets when they are distressed are loudly proclaiming that both are behaving irrationally and not as they think they should.

    Hedge fund billionaires hoping to make a killing are trying to talk the share market down with dire warnings and slightly less wealthy property experts are doing the same.


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    #9040
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Interesting times; two markets are not collapsing and experts desperately hoping to take advantage of those markets when they are distressed are loudly proclaiming that both are behaving irrationally and not as they think they should.

    Hedge fund billionaires hoping to make a killing are trying to talk the share market down with dire warnings and slightly less wealthy property experts are doing the same.
    Nobody will say us truth because them money are heavily involved and every word they say could cut them capital on market or investment badly.For that reason dont wait any information not from Bloomberg not from Buffet not Bezos or even from media in Ireland.Everybody will play them game to the last.The only way we could win is get ready for hard times.Do not believe Anybody believe amount of money in your pocket only !


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    #9041
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    I heard many songs from previous recessions to believe them again ! I remember songs about property will never be cheaper before recessions in my country and I remember very well songs about property will Never Be Cheaper in 2007 ! That was the lessons which I learned very well because I still pay couple mortgages for land in my country which worth half of what I paid ! And believe me guys this is Very Painful.


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    #9042
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Personally I think there will be no drop. The market was declining in Q4 last year but it has already recovered regardless of Covid, job loss and general uncertainly.
    The next two years will be business as usual

    HAHA its already recovered?? what planet do you live on?


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    #9043
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    HAHA its already recovered?? what planet do you live on?

    Here's a link to the currently buying/selling thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

    Go read it and then tell me what evidence you find in it that indicates the market hasn't recovered.


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    #9044
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users Posts: 4,992 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Here's a link to the currently buying/selling thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

    Go read it and then tell me what evidence you find in it that indicates the market hasn't recovered.

    Half a million unemployed, the highest ever.
    Banks agreed a 3 month payment break for people and businesses affected by COVID.

    Our economy is propped up with a COVID payment and a bank freeze.
    These will be ending within the next month. Check back then and we'll see how the market stands.

    EDIT: Businesses are going to continue losing money in spite of reopening. It's hard to say, but I doubt even Penneys is making what they would usually make, in spite of long queues to enter the shop. Restaurants and pubs will go to the wall if they haven't already.

    That said, were very lucky that COVID hit when it did. A lockdown in early Summer would have killed all Summer trade for seasonal businesses, and Christmas trade would be affected. People will queue when the weather is good, they'll stay at home when it's not.


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    #9045
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Here's a link to the currently buying/selling thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

    Go read it and then tell me what evidence you find in it that indicates the market hasn't recovered.

    Did you ever see goods advertisement "games " on facebook !? Does anybody know were I can get spinners,asking one member (sales partner).The another member (seller ) give the answer Here you can find them ! The other members reading them starting buy spinners :) I know how this shows made and I know how much property brokers earn.I see them games in 2007 and I was the fish who catch them hook.


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    #9046
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    Half a million unemployed, the highest ever.
    Banks agreed a 3 month payment break for people and businesses affected by COVID.

    Our economy is propped up with a COVID payment and a bank freeze.
    These will be ending within the next month. Check back then and we'll see how the market stands.

    I think govt will phase out the Covid payment instead of a dead stop. Then we have to consider what type of economic package they come up with.

    They will monitor economic activity under restrictions over the coming months and make adjustments if economic reality requires. I think it will be q1 2021 before we get proper view of how economy is performing.


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    #9047
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Here's a link to the currently buying/selling thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

    Go read it and then tell me what evidence you find in it that indicates the market hasn't recovered.

    The property market was not dead to start to recover !Property market just stoped on way to graveyard ! It will be dead soon and then we will start talk about recovery.


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    #9048
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I think govt will phase out the Covid payment instead of a dead stop. Then we have to consider what type of economic package they come up with.

    They will monitor economic activity under restrictions over the coming months and make adjustments if economic reality requires. I think it will be q1 2021 before we get proper view of how economy is performing.


    I reckon the Government will stop or drastically reduce covid unemployment benefits and will only directly support businesses to maintain and restore employment levels.
    Those on PUP will transition to the standard job seekers allowance (if eligible).


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    #9049
    Top Dog
    Registered Users Posts: 4,162 ✭✭✭Top Dog


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Here's a link to the currently buying/selling thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

    Go read it and then tell me what evidence you find in it that indicates the market hasn't recovered.
    I'm following that thread too, and to be fair - the market hasn't recovered yet because it has yet to drop significantly. Yeah, sales were paused for a few months, but we've yet to see any significant drop in asking prices.


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    #9050
    Top Dog
    Registered Users Posts: 4,162 ✭✭✭Top Dog


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    Half a million unemployed, the highest ever.
    Banks agreed a 3 month payment break for people and businesses affected by COVID.

    Our economy is propped up with a COVID payment and a bank freeze.
    These will be ending within the next month. Check back then and we'll see how the market stands.
    BOI (And possibly others) are giving up to 6 months break, so it could be another few months yet before we see the proper outlook.


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    #9051
    Gumbo
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    IsErik wrote: »
    They could be saving a hefty deposit simultaneously, if prices do in fact drop and they have a big deposit they will not have to borrow as much and likely capitalize in the drop in interest rates, it is expected that some mortgage rates in Ireland may drop to 1.6-1.8% to combat the recession.



    1300 is a crazy high mortgage imo.

    Can you link to where you are getting these expected decreases please.


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    #9052
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    GocRh wrote: »
    I reckon the Government will stop or drastically reduce covid unemployment benefits and will only directly support businesses to maintain and restore employment levels.
    Those on PUP will transition to the standard job seekers allowance (if eligible).


    Will support renting market by paying HAPs trough people on doll ? What the difference ? Paying same Covid money by another hand ? The problem is not jobs the problem is consumption.Without consumption workers will seating on factory drinking tea getting wage subsidy.We dont have problems only with Covid,we have problem with global recession which started before Covid/Brexit/and Covid its self.
    Here is some things which just came to my head but I could name a lot more
    The property prices in Dublin started stagnating last year
    The cars sales felt down this year without Covid started.
    Two Irish funds recently froze withdrawals for up to six months

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/fitch-warns-of-contagion-among-property-investment-funds-1.4163090


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    #9053
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users Posts: 4,992 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Top Dog wrote: »
    BOI (And possibly others) are giving up to 6 months break, so it could be another few months yet before we see the proper outlook.

    Do you keep accruing interest on the 6 months?

    Regardless, all other bills that have stopped will be called in over the next few months.


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    #9054
    Top Dog
    Registered Users Posts: 4,162 ✭✭✭Top Dog


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    Do you keep accruing interest on the 6 months?
    You can be sure of it. Banks aren't that kind hearted at all.


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    #9055
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Top Dog wrote: »
    You can be sure of it. Banks aren't that kind hearted at all.

    Some EU countries pas legislation Along the line that the banks can’t accrue additional interest on the payment holidays. I think the SF animals are drafting similar as a political points scoring exercise.


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    #9056
    Top Dog
    Registered Users Posts: 4,162 ✭✭✭Top Dog


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Some EU countries pas legislation Along the line that the banks can’t accrue additional interest on the payment holidays. I think the SF animals are drafting similar as a political points scoring exercise.
    Given that we bailed them out, it'd hardly be asking too much of them. And I say that as someone who isn't availing of any payment breaks.


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    #9057
    Arthur Daley
    Registered Users Posts: 4,459 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Top Dog wrote: »
    Given that we bailed them out, it'd hardly be asking too much of them. And I say that as someone who isn't availing of any payment breaks.

    Bank of Ireland paid back any support they got from the Irish govt. When are we going to stop using this excuse. Will peopld still trot out this line in 2120.


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    #9058
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Arthur Daley wrote: »
    Bank of Ireland paid back any support they got from the Irish govt. When are we going to stop using this excuse. Will peopld still trot out this line in 2120.

    Let's be straight about this BOI nor any bank will take a long time to repay the help they got from the state. People need to remember this.
    The state directly injected monies into the bank in return for a share in the bank. That was one form of support.
    The second form, which many seem to have forgotten at this point was through NAMA..NAMA took over massive amounts of bad debt that was on the banks books. The banks would not have survived without the indirect support from NAMA.
    Coupled with the fact the banks can write off any corpo tax for years against their 'losses' in those times.

    Right now and for the next 12 to 18 months many people will require assistance with paying various bills. Whether the banks help people may depend on more temporary state support either directly to the individual or more easily by the banks playing ball.


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    #9059
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭combat14


    looks like more rent freezes and eviction bans till at least the end of October start of November.. they will hardly allow landlords throw people out prior to Xmas .. wonder will this roll into next year.....


    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/the-big-read-rents-will-be-frozen-and-evictions-banned-as-parties-in-final-play-for-power-39302355.html


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    #9060
    stayback
    Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭stayback


    kippy wrote: »
    Let's be straight about this BOI nor any bank will take a long time to repay the help they got from the state. People need to remember this.
    The state directly injected monies into the bank in return for a share in the bank. That was one form of support.
    The second form, which many seem to have forgotten at this point was through NAMA..NAMA took over massive amounts of bad debt that was on the banks books. The banks would not have survived without the indirect support from NAMA.
    Coupled with the fact the banks can write off any corpo tax for years against their 'losses' in those times.

    Right now and for the next 12 to 18 months many people will require assistance with paying various bills. Whether the banks help people may depend on more temporary state support either directly to the individual or more easily by the banks playing ball.


    I recommend anybody who has an interest in how the banking system collapsed in 2008 watch “too big too fail” it explains exactly how the system crashed.
    Not all banks were effected to the same extent. For example BOI didn’t need a cash injection but if it didn’t take it then it would look like all the other banks were insolvent. Thus all the other banks would see a run towards BOI. A bit like Wells Fargo in the states.
    Hence why BOI is the only bank that can stand on its own 2 feet.

    NAMA is different as this was a vehicle designed to relieve banks of their riskests assets. Not every loan that went to Nama was in default. A bit like COVID 19 we only the negative parts.


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    #9061
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    combat14 wrote: »
    looks like more rent freezes and eviction bans till at least the end of October start of November.. they will hardly allow landlords throw people out prior to Xmas .. wonder will this roll into next year.....


    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/the-big-read-rents-will-be-frozen-and-evictions-banned-as-parties-in-final-play-for-power-39302355.html

    It's inevitable that it will be extended through Christmas. But it is absolutely necessary so long as there are ridiculous restrictions being imposed on our day to day life. It just won't be possible to implement some restrictions in relation to the virus and not also have to prop up the economy at the same time. I was thinking a few weeks ago that Q2 data next year (July onwards) will start to show the initial impacts of Covid19 on the property market but I now think it's looking more like Q3 data onwards. Which means that claims of a recovery, collapse or steadying in respect of property before October 2021 are based on nothing but conjecture and I am not taking such comments seriously.


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