The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

theological wrote: »

The Seanad still exists for scrutinising legislation. I'm sure Enzokk will be balanced and criticise both equally.

The 26th Seanad has yet to sit and as such is not available to "scrutinise" bills or propose amendments. It's precisely why all legislation has been enacted on an emergency basis within the 33rd Dáil.

I think everyone can agree that travel bans and quarantines were brought in too late.

I guess we could. We could also argue that the lockdown and travel restrictions, in the case of the UK are being lifted prematurely.

Given that most of the infections in the UK are thought to originate from Spain and France a set of restrictions from February would have curbed the spread. I guess their argument is that they can stop a new set of cases being re-imported, but there's still a lot of community transmission in the country already.

At this point it's not relevant from a public health POV where the infection emanated from; its still within the community.

I guess it might be beneficial to other countries by dissuading Britons from travelling there also.

I'm quite happy to restrict my travelling to within England for now anyway.

Bully to you.

theological wrote: »

If you want, you can look at the graphs. The UK is back at pre-lockdown figures, so by definition the tide has been turned. There's still some way to go, but the worst is over.

A minute ago, you were complaining that lockdown measures were easing too slowly. Now we are saying they are easing too quickly. I'll let you figure that out.

The measures that have been eased so far have had very little impact on the R value. The measures that will be eased from Monday will be monitored over the coming weeks.

Edit: Pubs and cafes will open from July 4th, more than likely outdoors, only if progress has been made.

I'm saying there's no way on earth it should have taken anywhere near this long. We had advance warning from Spain and Italy of what would happen if lockdown wasn't in place, and the government just chose to sit there and do nothing in those precious first few weeks of March while the virus was spreading further and further in the community. It's now been shown that almost all the cases in the UK were from Spain, France and Italy. Can you imagine how different things would be now if they'd stopped flights/trains/ferries from those places when it became clear how bad the situation was? Or at the very least insisted on a proper quarantine for anyone returning?

The people who returned from Wuhan/China back in January were forced to stay in quarantine at government facilities for two weeks...all that fuss made and expense and inconvenience, and then they just let people flood into the UK, particularly London, from countries which were already becoming worse affected than China had ever been, as if it was fine? Who in their right mind would ever allow that to happen?

The UK was in such a fortunate position, having the gift of time, and the gift of knowledge. Looking at the situation in Italy was like having a crystal ball. They could see where the Italians had gone wrong and act quickly to stop it getting that bad here - strict lockdown, flights grounded, mandatory quarantine for anyone returning. What did the government actually do? Spout some sh*t about letting the virus spread through the community, and then locked down weeks too late once the damage was already done.

Slow clap.

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1271435275156275201

theological wrote: »

The UK hasn't eased much at all. It is easing slowly, and step by step. The number of cases is declining, the number of deaths is declining. We can't stay locked down forever. At some stage we need to think carefully about how to open up the economy and society safely.

On May 11th the Government eased the lockdown measures to enable people to meet safely. Cases continued to decline and the R didn't increase.

On June 1st more was eased. Schools opened up for limited year groups and people could meet more people outside. The R didn't increase, cases and deaths continued to decline.

Tomorrow, people who live alone can join a social bubble with another household. From Sunday churches can open for private prayer and on Monday shops can open in a cautious manner.

The same analysis needs to be had in a couple of weeks, but it is incorrect to say this re-opening has been anything but conservative.

How can you say the r rate hasnt increased? A couple of weeks ago we were hearing bottom line estimates of 0.5 and even lower in London. Now the lower estimates are 0.7 and pushing 1 and over in some regions. It has increased and now you have them at todays briefing moving the goalposts as they so often do, saying it's not all about the r, we have other measures too, ones we prefer the sound of.

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The UK is a basket case, but why? Is there something ELSE going on?

I know, we have the late lockdown, clueless politicians, Cheltenham, early opening up, extreme British Exceptionalism, but does that explain entirely why it is SO much worse there than anywhere in Europe? The UK does not have as many vulnerable OAPs as say, Italy, so the UK should be less effected. But its in a terrible state.

Is there something genetic going on? Is there something inherent in the UK and the way it works that has made it far worse than everywhere else? I just can't work out in my head why it is so terrible there, even with all of the above problems.

No, it's down to late lockdown etc.

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The UK is a basket case, but why? Is there something ELSE going on?

I know, we have the late lockdown, clueless politicians, Cheltenham, early opening up, extreme British Exceptionalism, but does that explain entirely why it is SO much worse there than anywhere in Europe? The UK does not have as many vulnerable OAPs as say, Italy, so the UK should be less effected. But its in a terrible state.

Is there something genetic going on? Is there something inherent in the UK and the way it works that has made it far worse than everywhere else? I just can't work out in my head why it is so terrible there, even with all of the above problems.

Late lockdown, followed a strategy of herd immunity so the preparations were sub-standard when they changed tack. Lack of preparation meant lack of PPE which meant infections were spread more easily. Lastly, in their haste to protect the NHS they exposed care homes and the most vulnerable to the virus.

Not so much genetics or diabetes or obesity, but a lack of preparation and a incompetent government in charge. Nothing special, just ordinary really.

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree this is an issue of late lockdown. I do also think that there is a cultural piece at play as well, in the the UK, along with the US, very much favour the individual over society and, as a result, the lockdown (light as it was) broke down quite early, leading to a long tail to the curve

The UK public were calling out to be locked down, it is not this.That is a reason used by the scientists for not locking down earlier, but the public was very compliant to protect the NHS and save lives.

Now they don't care because partly Cummings was allowed to get away with breaking lockdown as has Robert Jenrick. They broke the trust the public gave them and now nobody really gives a crap.

theological wrote: »

The number of recorded cases both on the KCL Zoe COVID tracker (which is pretty accurate) and the testing figures are both declining. This means that the spread is reducing nationwide which doesn't happen if the R is 1 or above.

Lies, damned lies and statistics. If infections is decreasing, why is the R number increasing?

Coronavirus R number may have risen above 1 in parts of England, govt says

The coronavirus reproduction rate may have risen above 1 in parts of England, government scientists have said.

Official figures indicate the rate - known as the R number - is between 0.8 and 1.0 across the whole of England.

This range is slightly higher than for the entire UK, where it remains between 0.7 and 0.9.

But in the southwest of England, the Government Office for Science said it was between 0.8 and 1.1. The group said the most likely estimate was in the middle of the range.