Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

His models suggest that the stark difference between outcomes in the UK and Germany, for example, is not primarily an effect of different government actions (such as better testing and earlier lockdowns) but is better explained by intrinsic differences between the populations that make the “susceptible population” in Germany — the group that is vulnerable to Covid-19 — much smaller than in the UK.

As he told me in our interview, even within the UK, the numbers point to the same thing: that the “effective susceptible population” was never 100%, and was at most 50% and probably more like only 20% of the population. He emphasises that the analysis is not yet complete, but “I suspect, once this has been done, it will look like the effective non-susceptible portion of the population will be about 80%. I think that’s what’s going to happen.”

Immediately it would change how we should think about lifting lockdown: a tube carriage in London might in theory have to be restricted to 15% capacity to maintain social distancing of 2 metres, but if, as Professor Friston believes, the susceptible population in London was only ever 26% and 80% or more of that group is now provably immune via antibody testing, you can put a lot more people in a tube carriage without increasing the level of risk. Ditto restaurants, pubs, theatres and most recently, MPs in parliament. It would question the whole idea of social distancing being a feature of any “new normal”.

It would take the heat out of the political argument around the pandemic, and give the lie to the idea that it was ever primarily government actions (however incompetent or incompetently executed) that explain differing death rates. As Professor Friston puts it, once you put into the model sensible behaviours that people do anyway such as staying in bed when they are sick, the effect of legal lockdown “literally goes away”.

Jim Bob Scratcher wrote: »

These protesters are ****ing idiots. I just hope that in 2 weeks time there is no rise of infections due to this. Undoing all the hard work that the majority of Irish people have put in over that time, and for what? some thug criminal dying at the hands of some asshole cops? In America? truly unbelievable..

UrbanFret wrote: »

Interestingly some weeks back posters were commenting on how well Poland we're doing as opposed to Ireland. If I recall correctly they were about 4000 cases behind us, I have kept an eye on this and they have now overtaken us and the gap is growing. We seem to be in a good place right now, hopefully it stays that way.

bb1234567 wrote:

Perhaps unsurprisingly given the level of deaths but Belgium appears to have the highest rate of immunity in Europe with 7% of the population being immune . 3200 people in Belgium have been randomly sampled every 3 weeks , in late march 3% of people had antibodies,in late April 6% had antibodies , in May a small increase to just 7% had antibodies showing the effect of lockdown.

jackboy wrote: »

The fact that true cases of Covid19 reinfection have not been detected indicates that there is likely significant immunity which lasts for at least months.

Martina1991 wrote: »

We're only 2 months past our peak. How can anyone say people have long lasting immunity.

Micky 32 wrote:

Exactly but going by your posts you seem to have it all worked out.