|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2020 7:58pm #1

1. Predict the IMT ... 1981-2010 average is 13.6 C.

2. Predict the MAX ... NormaL is set at 26.5

3. Predict the MIN ... NormaL is set at 2.0

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal.

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS -- How much rain will fall in the last third of June (21st to 30th)? Your answer should be in percentage of normal format, actual to be determined from values after 20 and 30 days. (if you give an answer in mm, I will convert it to a percentage from this formula -- one third of the average of June and July amounts at the eleven stations used).

The usual late penalties apply, starting 0300h Monday 1st of June.

Bsal · 30-05-2020 2:47am

Bsal__________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 75 _ 110 __ 20%

BLIZZARD7 · 30-05-2020 3:20am

BLIZZARD7__________15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 45 _ 130 __ 10%

sryanbruen · 30-05-2020 11:53am

sryanbruen _________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 70 _ 105 __ 25%

dasa29 · 31-05-2020 12:11am

dasa29 _________ 14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 90 _ 120 __ 30%

DOCARCH · 31-05-2020 9:05am

DOCARCH__________13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 68 _ 121 __ 30%

kindredspirit · 31-05-2020 12:58pm

KIndred Spirit ___ 14.5° ___ 30 ___ 2.5 ___ 70 ___ 122 ___ 22%

pauldry · 31-05-2020 5:37pm

Pauldry__________13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101__ 49%

Artane2002 · 31-05-2020 8:27pm

Artane2002 _________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 65 _ 112 __ 20%

mr.stonewall · 31-05-2020 9:16pm

MrStonewall____________13.8__29.4__1.6__74__121__30%

sunflower3 · 31-05-2020 9:40pm

Sunflower3_________13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 75 _ 115 __ 80

mickger844posts · 31-05-2020 10:07pm

mickger844posts__________12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30%

Tae laidir · 31-05-2020 10:24pm

Tae laidir __________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 62 _ 118 __ 60

200motels · 31-05-2020 10:42pm

200motels 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 71 _ 103 __ 26%

adam240610 · 31-05-2020 10:44pm

Adam240610_____13.7_27.2_3.3_78_110_44%

appledrop · 31-05-2020 10:44pm

Appledrop_________15.8_ 28.5_ 1.9_ 65_ 90_ 80%

Joe Public · 31-05-2020 10:52pm

Joe Public_________13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130__ 89%

waterways · 31-05-2020 11:02pm

waterways ___ 14.7 ___ 29 ___ 2.1 ___ 55 ___ 135 ___ 59

dacogawa · 31-05-2020 11:19pm

Dacogawa _________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 89 _ 92 __ 33%

Jpmarn · 31-05-2020 11:36pm

Jpmarn _________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5_ 85 _ 115 __ 105%

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2020 1:18am

M.T. Cranium ____ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 _ 105

mrskinner · 01-06-2020 5:02am

Mrskinner_____14.3____28.6____1.7___65____126___39%

John mac · 01-06-2020 9:58am

john mac _________13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 90 _ 110 __ 40%

sitting out in the sun with coffee suddenly remembered to enter...

Rikand · 01-06-2020 1:25pm

Rikand ____ 14.5 ____ 30.0 ____ 1.0 _____ 90 _____ 120 ____ 50%

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2020 8:53pm

I was just reviewing the entries and wondering if everyone read the bonus question to mean what I thought it should mean -- because a lot of the answers look like percentages of the June total that might fall in the last ten days rather than percentages of normal rainfall in that interval.

Please thank this post if you think your answer does match the question (percentage of the normal amount of rainfall that would fall in the period 21-30 June) ... please edit or repost if you now realize that's what it means and your answer was for that other concept (which would normally be in the 20-50 per cent range).

Not saying I think any of these answers are wrong, but I wanted to give everyone the same chance to answer the question being tested rather than something else. Anyone who doesn't either thank this post or repost/edit will get a p.m. about this so everyone will have a chance to think about the bonus question one last time. As it's so far away I will say any answers resubmitted by 5th are fine.

Just to give an example here, normal June and July rainfalls are in the 50-60 mm range so we might expect the normal amount for a third of June to be near 20 mm. So if you think 10 mm might fall, the answer is 50%. It would not be (10/x) where x is your June rainfall forecast, as the amount that has fallen by 20th is irrelevant to the bonus question.

So once again, thank this post if you are satisfied with your bonus question answer. I will hold off on the table of forecasts until this issue is settled. (if there even is an issue, maybe everyone thinks it will be a dry end to the month)

Artane2002 · 02-06-2020 10:00pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Artane2002 _________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 65 _ 112 __ 45%

I'll change the bonus question to 45% instead of 20%

appledrop · 02-06-2020 10:11pm

Thanks for the clarification I did pick it up wrong. I've changed my answer now from 25% to 80%...

Thanks appledrop.

adam240610 · 03-06-2020 12:35am

adam240610 wrote: »

Adam240610_____13.7_27.2_3.3_78_110_130%

Thanks MT, going to increase mine from 44% to 130%, I misinterpreted the bonus

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2020 7:20am

Thanks either way, my bad on this, the question was about as obscure as the tax forms I am currently trying to fill out. My numbers on that are a lot closer to zero though, working on some negatives here and there.

Tazio · 03-06-2020 8:32am

Tazio__________12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 85 _ 100 __ 57%

kindredspirit · 03-06-2020 4:52pm

Was going to PM about that question. Can I change my figure to 70% as I can't seem to edit my entry.

Tae laidir · 03-06-2020 7:41pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

Tae laidir __________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 62 _ 118 __ 60

Change to 35%

mrskinner · 03-06-2020 9:40pm

Please change my #6 estimate to 85%.

Grma

Skinner

Rikand · 03-06-2020 10:25pm

I'm still not sure I understand the question lol

My thinking was :: If 100ml normally falls between 21-30 june every other year on average, then I am guessing that 50% of that total will fall. as in, 50 ml.

If that's correct, leave my answer as 50%

if its incorrect and you mean that if 100ml falls between 1-30 june this year, then just leave me on 50% anyway because I'm superstitious that way

And if both of those are incorrect, you can spell it out to me using pictograms or sock puppets or whatever you deem fit, but still leave my answer as 50% :pac:

pauldry · 04-06-2020 12:01am

I'm leaving mine the same as before coz I'm too confused

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2020 2:55am

Okay, one more try on my part to clarify what we are looking for. It's the same concept as we use for the monthly contest, percentage of normal rainfall, only we are applying it to a ten day period. The normal amount for that ten day period will be one third of the normal amount for the month of June, adjusted slightly to the trend between June and July. So let's say the normal amount in June is 60 mm and in July 64 mm, then that average is 62 mm, we are looking at a period closer to June than July so I would adjust to 61 mm. Then one third of that is 20.3 mm. So that establishes a normal, the actual amount that falls (average for eleven locations) might be 15 mm which is about 74% of the normal amount.

The seven-day ag reports that I use to generate weekly updates has a percentage of normal feature so I plan to track that to work out the results, both in terms of what is normal and what the percentage is.

So basically we are predicting how wet or dry the last ten days will be, relative to the amount that would fall averaged over 30 years in that part of June. If that explanation prompts anyone to change their guess, let me know.

Somehow I lost track of time these past few days and just realized the May contest could be scored since about 1100h, we've had some people renovating our kitchen this week and so that's my excuse (not sure what cause and effect mechanism is involved, but it's all I have).

Going over to May now to clean that up.

pauldry · 04-06-2020 7:27am

Ok then MT. Just to bring on the onset of the hottest Summer ever I'll change mine to 160%

Now there'll definitely be 45%

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2020 4:40pm

Table of forecasts for June 2020

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus __ confirmed

Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 1.9 _ 065 _ 090 __ 80% _ ed

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 045 _ 130 __ 10% _ th

waterways ____________14.7 _ 29.0 _ 2.1 _ 055 _ 135 __ 59% _

Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 089 _ 092 __ 80% _ ed

KIndred Spirit _________ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 122 __ 70% _ ed

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 50% _ ok

Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 062 _ 118 __ 35% _ ed

Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 14.3 _ 28.6 _ 1.7 _ 065 _ 126 __ 85% _ ed

Artane2002 ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 065 _ 112 __ 45% _ ed

sryanbruen ___________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 070 _ 105 __ 25% __th

dasa29 _______________14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 30% __th

200motels ____________ 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 071 _ 103 __ 88% __ed (pm)

___ Con Sensus _______ 14.0 _ 28.4 _ 2.0 _ 075 _ 111 __ 50%

Sunflower3____________ 13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 075 _ 115 __ 80% __th

Jpmarn _______________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 115 __105% __ok

MrStonewall ___________13.8 _ 29.4 _ 1.6 _ 074 _ 121 __ 30%

DOCARCH ____________ 13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 068 _ 121 __ 30% __ed

Joe Public ____________ 13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130 __ 89% __th

john mac _____ (-2) ____13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40% __th

Adam240610 __________13.7 _ 27.2 _ 3.3 _ 078 _ 110 __ 130% _ed

___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __100%

Bsal _________________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 110 __ 20% __ th

M.T. Cranium _________ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __105% __me

Pauldry ______________ 13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101 __160% __ed

Tazio _______ (-6) _____12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 100 __ 57% __th

mickger844posts _______12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30% __ok

___________________________________________________________

For now these are the entries, the code at the end is the status of the bonus question -- ed means edited in a post, th means post asking for updates thanked, guess assumed to be okay, ok means posted to confirm okay, me means me, and no entry means a p.m. is on the way giving those folks a heads up available to end of 5th. Anyone already shown as having considered this can still change up until then also.

Will perhaps edit consensus value for that part if necessary.

DOCARCH · 04-06-2020 5:01pm

Hi MT

I am changing mine to 30%....I have edited my entry.

dacogawa · 04-06-2020 7:11pm

dacogawa wrote: »

Dacogawa _________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 89 _ 92 __ 33%

If not too late could I change it to 80%? Thanks!

mickger844posts · 04-06-2020 10:53pm

No change from me

Jpmarn · 05-06-2020 12:17am

No change in the bonus question as I went for slightly above rainfall for the end of the month at 105%.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2020 7:36pm

Meanwhile noted a MAX of 27.1 on the first at Newport, not quite matched on the 2nd before the warm spell ended.

Joe Public · 08-06-2020 10:05am

I saw 3C at Ballyhaise 6am this morning

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2020 1:51pm

After first week of June ...

IMT 12.7, 0.2 below normal.

MAX 27.1 on 1st (Newport)

MIN around 2.5 to 3 (several locations had hourly obs of 3 C this morning).

PRC 29% of normal.

SUN 109.3% of normal (656/600).

For the bonus question, have worked out the normal value for 21-30 June. It is 24 mm on average at the eleven stations, or a total of 264, this was derived from June normals and no adjustment needed since July overall has an identical per diem rainfall (with the extra day it has very slightly higher averages overall but not at each station). So when we come to validating the bonus, I will track the total rainfall at the eleven stations and compare it to 264 mm. Then I will cross-reference the reports in the seven-day ag report to make sure we have a consistent result. You can tell from this that the June average is around 72 mm, it would be in the 60s except for Valentia being somewhat wetter than the rest. Possibly the seven day reports have some daily average values embedded that we can't access, which is why I plan to cross-reference, if it appears to me that their normals are significantly different over the ten days, then I will adjust.

Another note on the bonus, with changes people made, the consensus shifted to 58% from the 50% shown in the table but I can't edit that now, so will hope to remember that when scoring Con Sensus later on.

Joe Public · 09-06-2020 4:25pm

2.5C at Mt. Dillon yesterday

appledrop · 12-06-2020 5:58pm

Average Mean temperature Dublin Airport only 11.4 so far.

Where was I going with my 15.8 prediction. I was dreaming!

M.T. Cranium · 15-06-2020 3:22pm

It's not as bad as you thought, the IMT is an average of five stations all of which are warmer than Dublin. This is the update for week two ...

IMT is now 12.9 C, the second week averaged 13.2 which was 0.3 below normal.

MAX 27.1 and MIN 2.5

PRC is now at 50% of normal with this past week average around 70%.

SUN has fallen to 81.5% with this past week rather cloudy at only 54% of normal (322/600).

The models were showing potential for a lot of rain but are wavering on that now, still enough different scenarios on the table to support just about all forecasts (both monthly scale and the bonus question).

M.T. Cranium · 21-06-2020 7:43am

Today (Sunday 21st) is the first day of our bonus question. The bulk of Saturday's rainfall event had cleared the grid by midnight although some will be measured from it at Ballyhaise, Casement and Malin Head. So the answer to our bonus lies mainly in the production of rainfall from the slow-moving frontal trough expected to be over Ireland tomorrow and Tuesday, plus some rain from today's showers and next weekend's frontal passage. At the moment I think the middle of the pack answers may fare best but with some potential for the higher end to score well.

As mentioned earlier in the month, will be tracking this based on an assumption that 24 mm per location (in our eleven station precip grid) is "normal" for the ten days. That's 2.4 mm per day and a total of 26.4 mm per day in the grid, so will give out some running totals based on percentages of 26.4 mm. Then will adjust with reference to the ag met report after seven days and noting any changes in background normals available from that source to the 30th. These adjustments are not likely to be very large.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2020 8:49pm

Report on week three and the start of the bonus rainfall ...

IMT on 13.4 after third week averaged 14.2 which was 0.2 above average.

MAX and MIN remain 27.1 and 2.5

PRC is now at 92% of normal after a wet week that averaged 176% of normal.

SUN has fallen further to 79% after another rather cloudy week at 74.5% (447/600).

BONUS ... 24.3 mm rain on 21st in the grid, about 92% of normal.

Tae laidir · 23-06-2020 3:42pm

Will Norma L score a famous victory?

|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

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