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|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT ... 1981-2010 average is 13.6 C.

2. Predict the MAX ... NormaL is set at 26.5

3. Predict the MIN ... NormaL is set at 2.0

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal.

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS -- How much rain will fall in the last third of June (21st to 30th)? Your answer should be in percentage of normal format, actual to be determined from values after 20 and 30 days. (if you give an answer in mm, I will convert it to a percentage from this formula -- one third of the average of June and July amounts at the eleven stations used).

The usual late penalties apply, starting 0300h Monday 1st of June.

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Bsal

Bsal__________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 75 _ 110 __ 20%

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7__________15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 45 _ 130 __ 10%

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 70 _ 105 __ 25%

dasa29

dasa29 _________ 14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 90 _ 120 __ 30%

DOCARCH

DOCARCH__________13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 68 _ 121 __ 30%

kindredspirit

KIndred Spirit ___ 14.5° ___ 30 ___ 2.5 ___ 70 ___ 122 ___ 22%

pauldry

Pauldry__________13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101__ 49%

Artane2002

Artane2002 _________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 65 _ 112 __ 20%

mr.stonewall

MrStonewall____________13.8__29.4__1.6__74__121__30%

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 75 _ 115 __ 80

mickger844posts

mickger844posts__________12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30%

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 62 _ 118 __ 60

200motels

200motels 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 71 _ 103 __ 26%

adam240610

Adam240610_____13.7_27.2_3.3_78_110_44%

appledrop

Appledrop_________15.8_ 28.5_ 1.9_ 65_ 90_ 80%

Joe Public

Joe Public_________13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130__ 89%

waterways

waterways ___ 14.7 ___ 29 ___ 2.1 ___ 55 ___ 135 ___ 59

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 89 _ 92 __ 33%

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5_ 85 _ 115 __ 105%

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 _ 105

mrskinner

Mrskinner_____14.3____28.6____1.7___65____126___39%

John mac

john mac _________13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 90 _ 110 __ 40%

sitting out in the sun with coffee suddenly remembered to enter...

Rikand

Rikand ____ 14.5 ____ 30.0 ____ 1.0 _____ 90 _____ 120 ____ 50%

M.T. Cranium

I was just reviewing the entries and wondering if everyone read the bonus question to mean what I thought it should mean -- because a lot of the answers look like percentages of the June total that might fall in the last ten days rather than percentages of normal rainfall in that interval.

Please thank this post if you think your answer does match the question (percentage of the normal amount of rainfall that would fall in the period 21-30 June) ... please edit or repost if you now realize that's what it means and your answer was for that other concept (which would normally be in the 20-50 per cent range).

Not saying I think any of these answers are wrong, but I wanted to give everyone the same chance to answer the question being tested rather than something else. Anyone who doesn't either thank this post or repost/edit will get a p.m. about this so everyone will have a chance to think about the bonus question one last time. As it's so far away I will say any answers resubmitted by 5th are fine.

Just to give an example here, normal June and July rainfalls are in the 50-60 mm range so we might expect the normal amount for a third of June to be near 20 mm. So if you think 10 mm might fall, the answer is 50%. It would not be (10/x) where x is your June rainfall forecast, as the amount that has fallen by 20th is irrelevant to the bonus question.

So once again, thank this post if you are satisfied with your bonus question answer. I will hold off on the table of forecasts until this issue is settled. (if there even is an issue, maybe everyone thinks it will be a dry end to the month)

Artane2002

Artane2002 wrote: »

Artane2002 _________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 65 _ 112 __ 45%

I'll change the bonus question to 45% instead of 20%

appledrop

Thanks for the clarification I did pick it up wrong. I've changed my answer now from 25% to 80%...

Thanks appledrop.

adam240610

adam240610 wrote: »

Adam240610_____13.7_27.2_3.3_78_110_130%

Thanks MT, going to increase mine from 44% to 130%, I misinterpreted the bonus

M.T. Cranium

Thanks either way, my bad on this, the question was about as obscure as the tax forms I am currently trying to fill out. My numbers on that are a lot closer to zero though, working on some negatives here and there.

Tazio

Tazio__________12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 85 _ 100 __ 57%

kindredspirit

Was going to PM about that question. Can I change my figure to 70% as I can't seem to edit my entry.