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6000 landlords a year existing the rental market

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    #2
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,092 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    You're asking us to speculate about what the response might be to problems outlined in an article we can't read?


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    #3
    Blazer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,416 ✭✭✭✭Blazer


    People need to stop linking to articles from that rubbish site who actually charge or try to charge for that garbage they call news.


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    #4
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/fresh-pressure-for-renters-as-exodus-of-landlords-grows-39248795.html


    Behind a paywall after the first couple of paragraphs.

    It looks like the punitive actions against landlords hasn't really worked.
    What's next? Punish landlords more?

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    If we look at the figures here (only for Dublin admittedly) and compare 01 June 2017 to 01 June 2020 we can see the volume has gone from 1239 to 2607 (increase of 110%). As many have speculated many of these are the return of STL's and who knows where this trend will go from here. It might not all be doom and gloom for renters now and I imagine once restrictions around viewings are lifted next week you might start to see some renters shopping around for better deals as prices seem to have come down somewhat as well.


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    #5
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Most news isn't original you almost always find someone else has done the same story and it's not behind a pay wall.

    https://m.herald.ie/news/pressure-to-increase-on-renters-as-17000-landlords-quit-the-market-39248586.html

    If course you'd need to know how many tenants entered or left the market to gauge demand. Did population increase or decrease during the same period.

    I've always found it hard to get these figures as RTB never really give a straight breakdown in their reports. The article seems to suggest the figures were requested by SF. I'm open to correction on that.


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    #6
    Springfields
    Registered Users Posts: 258 ✭✭Springfields


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/fresh-pressure-for-renters-as-exodus-of-landlords-grows-39248795.html


    Behind a paywall after the first couple of paragraphs.

    It looks like the punitive actions against landlords hasn't really worked.
    What's next? Punish landlords more?

    Should that be 'exiting' the market ??


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    #7
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    So the number of LLs has reduced by 10% (it was 170,000) over the past 3 years, however two points stand out:
    1. The number of private LLs that left was actually more, as the article points out its masked by the addition of High end build-to-let’s
    2. The number of tenancies also dropped 10%, suggesting its all single-property accidental LLs who are getting out, who tend to have basic family homes rented to the people who end up homeless if they can’t find somewhere

    In other words, both the ‘Normal’ market and also the homeless crisis are both in a worse state in just 3 years


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    #8
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Summary:

    Reduction of over 17,000 landlords registered with the RTB since 2017 and a fall in the number of registered tenancies to 303,000 tenancies.

    The RTB are proposing to the Minister that they conduct a poll of the +17,000 landlords who have wholly left the sector, to better understand how/why they have taken this decision.

    Sinn Féin's Eoin O'Broin is suggesting that the primary motivating factor for landlords leaving the sector is Buy-to-Let landlords who are finally out of negative equity leaving the sector.

    AirDNA- who monitor all Airbnb lettings in Ireland register a decline of over 5,000 properties on Airbnb to under 25,000 on January figures- but have no figures as to how many of these lettings are for whole properties, how many are for 'rooms' in owner occupied property, how many are being let by owners- and how many are sublets by tenants. They also have no breakdown as to where these properties are.

    Load factor for short-term lets forecast to fall from as much as 70% in July and August 2019, to under 50% for July/Aug 2020.

    All told- the article is a fluff piece with random facts and comments from different bodies and people thrown together- however, it doesn't really seem to have any point to make- other than the fact that the RTB are now saying that while they can see that landlords are leaving the sector, they have no idea why- and they need to conduct some surveys so they are in a better position to advise the Minister.


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    #9
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    I'd love to know what the story is with the circa 30% of Airbnb lets on the Irish market, being available but vacant in July/Aug 2019...........
    Something just doesn't make sense.


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    #10
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,050 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I'd love to know what the story is with the circa 30% of Airbnb lets on the Irish market, being available but vacant in July/Aug 2019...........
    Something just doesn't make sense.

    They could be holiday homes where the owner plans on using them themselves or for friends and family during the summer months. Even then would you really keep it vacant for the whole 2 months. I doubt it so maybe that isn't it.


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    #11
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Not sure why all the consternation is here this morning for an article simple stating a fact - the number of registered LLs has dropped 10%/17k in just 3 years.

    It’s been clear for years that the market isn’t functioning for LLs, but the commentary has always been that LLs are all profiteering gougers. This article provides simple data that LLs are voting with their feet.

    It’s worth pointing out that the number of LLs is down over 25% in just 8 years since over 200k were registered in 2012 (and that’s before we get into the 20k annual LLs who were unregistered and reported to the RTB who then registered, so it masks the true exodus).

    LLs are leaving in their droves, and will continue to do so, simple because the risk/reward of property investment in Ireland is too unsure.


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    #12
    yosser hughes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,879 ✭✭✭yosser hughes


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Summary:



    Sinn Féin's Eoin O'Broin is suggesting that the primary motivating factor for landlords leaving the sector is Buy-to-Let landlords who are finally out of negative equity leaving the sector.

    .

    This why. Some will be cutting their losses too, ahead of a major slump.


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    #13
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,048 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I'd love to know what the story is with the circa 30% of Airbnb lets on the Irish market, being available but vacant in July/Aug 2019...........
    Something just doesn't make sense.

    Many Airbnb owners also advertise on other platforms such as booking.com and Facebook. With Airbnb, you get a request from a guest which can be accepted or declined, if the property is already booked through another site, you decline. Bookings on other platforms can be paid for in cash, that may appeal to a lot of owners as Airbnb give details of all Host payments to Revenue.

    We don’t take bookings for periods we are away ourselves, as we clean and handover keys, when we are on holidays, the house is empty. We could get someone to do the cleaning, but we don’t bother.

    Some owners take bookings off site, Ive has a request this week for a longer term booking of 4-6 months, though I turned it down, some owners might be inclined to accept 1-2 month bookings, the property remains up on Airbnb, but the time is either blocked for bookings or bookings are declined.


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    #14
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    yosser hughes wrote: »
    This why. Some will be cutting their losses too, ahead of a major slump.

    This is data from 2017-2019. None of the figures include people who may leave the market due to covid concerns.

    Obviously the more LLs who continue to leave the market, the fewer places available to rent.

    Hard to see where a major slump can come from in the current market.
    On the one side, the high end stuff may be hit, but it’s mostly REIT owned and at the social housing end of the market, more people will move to HAP and the Gov will pick up the tab.
    The middle market is where all the accidental LLs with their one property are leaving the market.

    And all that happening while we will build even fewer houses, which was too low to begin with.

    The market dynamics don’t currently support a slump. In 2012 there were over 22,000 places available to rent on daft, and mass emigration, so we had a slump. That figure is still only around 3.5k today, including the Airbnb stuff, much of which will go again next year.


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    #15
    yosser hughes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,879 ✭✭✭yosser hughes


    sk8board wrote: »
    This is data from 2017-2019. None of the figures include people who may leave the market due to covid concerns.

    Also, the more LLs who continue to leave the market, the fewer places available to rent. Hard to see where a major slump can come from in the normal rental market. On the one side, the high end stuff may be hit, but it’s mostly REITs and at the social housing end of the market, more people will move to HAP and the Gov will pick up the tab.

    And all that happening while we will build even fewer houses, which was too low to begin with

    The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.


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    #16
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    yosser hughes wrote: »
    The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

    You’re assuming the number of people looking to rent is dropping by the same number of LLs leaving the market, when in reality we have far more people looking for somewhere to rent.
    There’s years of backlog before our homeless crisis could be considered stable.


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    #17
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,048 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    yosser hughes wrote: »
    The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

    Flatlining at a high level, rents were at a historic high, yet landlords were selling. If the new owner occupies it, it has left the rental market for good.


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    #18
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    yosser hughes wrote: »
    The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

    If our population is increasing and some one new takes it then the existing demand is negatively impacted. Some will leave them empty. Some will be empty while they get refurbished, and some will say there's no pointing paying to have someone renting for free during the crisis.


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    #19
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    If you look what happens after previous crashes and recessions is likely similar things will happen this time.


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    #20
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    One thing the gov has learned is that professional LLs and reits are far easier to deal with and ensure they comply with the rules. However most of the reits operate at the high end of the market, where the gov can’t afford to place HAP tenancies.

    The middle market LL needs to professionalise too - people with multiple rentals should be allowed set up a company, pay corporate tax, and in return be beholden to the rules, accept HAP etc (just like they currently do, but without the reward).

    The status quo is that the private landlord has been pushed to solve the public housing problem, and it’s simply not a sustainable investment market.


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    #21
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    sk8board wrote: »
    One thing the gov has learned is that professional LLs and reits are far easier to deal with and ensure they comply with the rules. .....

    I don't see any data other than anecdotal stories to support this. First of they had to bring in the Tyrrelstown amendment specially to control them. Then they generally operate at the high end which I'm guessing has far less problems than other parts of the rental market.

    The govt out sourced these parts of the rental market so they wouldn't have the expense of dealing with it. The expense of all this is now mostly carried by the landlord. Even the RTB is mostly funded by landlords.

    Large landlords are such a small part and specialised party of the market that any stats to do with it will be distorted. Not at least due to the bias reporting on it.


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    #22
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    beauf wrote: »
    I don't see any data other than anecdotal stories to support this. First of they had to bring in the Tyrrelstown amendment specially to control them. Then they generally operate at the high end which I'm guessing has far less problems than other parts of the rental market.

    The govt out sourced these parts of the rental market so they wouldn't have the expense of dealing with it. The expense of all this is now mostly carried by the landlord. Even the RTB is mostly funded by landlords.

    Large landlords are such a small part and specialised party of the market that any stats to do with it will be distorted. Not at least due to the bias reporting on it.

    True. The point was simply that the current situation of treating rent as unearned income at paye rates isn’t sustainable for the guy with one or two rentals and he’s already leaving anyway - but why not try to keep mid-sized private LLs in the market by treating them like the REITs.
    Only 10-15% of LLs in Ireland have 3 or more rentals, about 20-25k people, and build the middle and lower market around them.


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    #23
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    There isn't the political will to do that.

    We have examples of models from other countries that work we could copy. We decided not to learn from those countries and instead create an historic housing crisis.


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    #24
    sk8board
    Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭sk8board


    beauf wrote: »
    There isn't the political will to do that.

    We have examples of models from other countries that work we could copy. We decided not to learn from those countries and instead create an historic housing crisis.

    It only works if it’s a viable investment for the LL, so the political will will need to be found, as they are years away from building sufficient houses.

    as said many times, with the changing of the rules in 2012, the gov decided it would be the job of private LLs to resolve the public housing crisis.

    The private LLs have given them their answer by exiting, and will continue to do so. If it was a viable investment, they’d still be in the market.


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    #25
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    It's viable if you come in new set a high rent and have no problems.

    But there's a lot of issues that can arise to make it not viable.


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    #26
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    58 one beds advertised for Dublin 6 last Friday on Daft. The rental market is in trouble and if a landlord wants a property rented he better start reducing rent.


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    #27
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Edgware wrote: »
    58 one beds advertised for Dublin 6 last Friday on Daft. The rental market is in trouble and if a landlord wants a property rented he better start reducing rent.

    Any idea what it would usually be running at? I would also say that anyone looking to rent should be bargaining hard at this time.


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    #28
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,184 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Any idea what it would usually be running at? I would also say that anyone looking to rent should be bargaining hard at this time.

    Landlords with multiple properties may leave some empty. No point in driving down the rent in your other properties. That what the REIT's have done with the high end stuff for the last few years.

    I have two and would be slow dropping much below present rents. Risk with wrong tenant and tax may justify leaving properties empty.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #29
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Any idea what it would usually be running at? I would also say that anyone looking to rent should be bargaining hard at this time.
    I look after a few places for friends in D6 (Not an agent) but go back to late 2019 after the colleges have started and you would do well to go into 15 to 20 max. Rents would have been between 1350 to 1800 depending on condition/location.
    Some of the properties now are obvious former Airbnbs. Just check the bathroom photos of towels and soaps left for visitor use. There will be no tourists, weekenders from the country up for matches or concerts. Certainly rents can be negotiated. An empty apartment makes no money


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    #30
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Landlords with multiple properties may leave some empty. No point in driving down the rent in your other properties. That what the REIT's have done with the high end stuff for the last few years.

    I have two and would be slow dropping much below present rents. Risk with wrong tenant and tax may justify leaving properties empty.
    Thats the problem If you can get a decent tenant at 1300 a month its not a bad return. However if the tenant turns bad no money is worth the hassle


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    #31
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,003 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    If colleges start going online or just one day on campus you won’t have the usual clamor come September either. People working remotely too, could see a big change, time will tell.


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