6000 landlords a year existing the rental market

Pkiernan

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/fresh-pressure-for-renters-as-exodus-of-landlords-grows-39248795.html


Behind a paywall after the first couple of paragraphs.

It looks like the punitive actions against landlords hasn't really worked.
What's next? Punish landlords more?

Peregrinus

You're asking us to speculate about what the response might be to problems outlined in an article we can't read?

Blazer

People need to stop linking to articles from that rubbish site who actually charge or try to charge for that garbage they call news.

Ozark707

Pkiernan wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/fresh-pressure-for-renters-as-exodus-of-landlords-grows-39248795.html


Behind a paywall after the first couple of paragraphs.

It looks like the punitive actions against landlords hasn't really worked.
What's next? Punish landlords more?

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

If we look at the figures here (only for Dublin admittedly) and compare 01 June 2017 to 01 June 2020 we can see the volume has gone from 1239 to 2607 (increase of 110%). As many have speculated many of these are the return of STL's and who knows where this trend will go from here. It might not all be doom and gloom for renters now and I imagine once restrictions around viewings are lifted next week you might start to see some renters shopping around for better deals as prices seem to have come down somewhat as well.

beauf

Most news isn't original you almost always find someone else has done the same story and it's not behind a pay wall.

https://m.herald.ie/news/pressure-to-increase-on-renters-as-17000-landlords-quit-the-market-39248586.html

If course you'd need to know how many tenants entered or left the market to gauge demand. Did population increase or decrease during the same period.

I've always found it hard to get these figures as RTB never really give a straight breakdown in their reports. The article seems to suggest the figures were requested by SF. I'm open to correction on that.

Springfields

Pkiernan wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/fresh-pressure-for-renters-as-exodus-of-landlords-grows-39248795.html


Behind a paywall after the first couple of paragraphs.

It looks like the punitive actions against landlords hasn't really worked.
What's next? Punish landlords more?

Should that be 'exiting' the market ??

sk8board

So the number of LLs has reduced by 10% (it was 170,000) over the past 3 years, however two points stand out:
1. The number of private LLs that left was actually more, as the article points out its masked by the addition of High end build-to-let’s
2. The number of tenancies also dropped 10%, suggesting its all single-property accidental LLs who are getting out, who tend to have basic family homes rented to the people who end up homeless if they can’t find somewhere

In other words, both the ‘Normal’ market and also the homeless crisis are both in a worse state in just 3 years

The_Conductor

Summary:

Reduction of over 17,000 landlords registered with the RTB since 2017 and a fall in the number of registered tenancies to 303,000 tenancies.

The RTB are proposing to the Minister that they conduct a poll of the +17,000 landlords who have wholly left the sector, to better understand how/why they have taken this decision.

Sinn Féin's Eoin O'Broin is suggesting that the primary motivating factor for landlords leaving the sector is Buy-to-Let landlords who are finally out of negative equity leaving the sector.

AirDNA- who monitor all Airbnb lettings in Ireland register a decline of over 5,000 properties on Airbnb to under 25,000 on January figures- but have no figures as to how many of these lettings are for whole properties, how many are for 'rooms' in owner occupied property, how many are being let by owners- and how many are sublets by tenants. They also have no breakdown as to where these properties are.

Load factor for short-term lets forecast to fall from as much as 70% in July and August 2019, to under 50% for July/Aug 2020.

All told- the article is a fluff piece with random facts and comments from different bodies and people thrown together- however, it doesn't really seem to have any point to make- other than the fact that the RTB are now saying that while they can see that landlords are leaving the sector, they have no idea why- and they need to conduct some surveys so they are in a better position to advise the Minister.

The_Conductor

I'd love to know what the story is with the circa 30% of Airbnb lets on the Irish market, being available but vacant in July/Aug 2019...........
Something just doesn't make sense.

AlmightyCushion

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd love to know what the story is with the circa 30% of Airbnb lets on the Irish market, being available but vacant in July/Aug 2019...........
Something just doesn't make sense.

They could be holiday homes where the owner plans on using them themselves or for friends and family during the summer months. Even then would you really keep it vacant for the whole 2 months. I doubt it so maybe that isn't it.

sk8board

Not sure why all the consternation is here this morning for an article simple stating a fact - the number of registered LLs has dropped 10%/17k in just 3 years.

It’s been clear for years that the market isn’t functioning for LLs, but the commentary has always been that LLs are all profiteering gougers. This article provides simple data that LLs are voting with their feet.

It’s worth pointing out that the number of LLs is down over 25% in just 8 years since over 200k were registered in 2012 (and that’s before we get into the 20k annual LLs who were unregistered and reported to the RTB who then registered, so it masks the true exodus).

LLs are leaving in their droves, and will continue to do so, simple because the risk/reward of property investment in Ireland is too unsure.

yosser hughes

The_Conductor wrote: »

Summary:



Sinn Féin's Eoin O'Broin is suggesting that the primary motivating factor for landlords leaving the sector is Buy-to-Let landlords who are finally out of negative equity leaving the sector.

.

This why. Some will be cutting their losses too, ahead of a major slump.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd love to know what the story is with the circa 30% of Airbnb lets on the Irish market, being available but vacant in July/Aug 2019...........
Something just doesn't make sense.

Many Airbnb owners also advertise on other platforms such as booking.com and Facebook. With Airbnb, you get a request from a guest which can be accepted or declined, if the property is already booked through another site, you decline. Bookings on other platforms can be paid for in cash, that may appeal to a lot of owners as Airbnb give details of all Host payments to Revenue.

We don’t take bookings for periods we are away ourselves, as we clean and handover keys, when we are on holidays, the house is empty. We could get someone to do the cleaning, but we don’t bother.

Some owners take bookings off site, Ive has a request this week for a longer term booking of 4-6 months, though I turned it down, some owners might be inclined to accept 1-2 month bookings, the property remains up on Airbnb, but the time is either blocked for bookings or bookings are declined.

sk8board

yosser hughes wrote: »

This why. Some will be cutting their losses too, ahead of a major slump.

This is data from 2017-2019. None of the figures include people who may leave the market due to covid concerns.

Obviously the more LLs who continue to leave the market, the fewer places available to rent.

Hard to see where a major slump can come from in the current market.
On the one side, the high end stuff may be hit, but it’s mostly REIT owned and at the social housing end of the market, more people will move to HAP and the Gov will pick up the tab.
The middle market is where all the accidental LLs with their one property are leaving the market.

And all that happening while we will build even fewer houses, which was too low to begin with.

The market dynamics don’t currently support a slump. In 2012 there were over 22,000 places available to rent on daft, and mass emigration, so we had a slump. That figure is still only around 3.5k today, including the Airbnb stuff, much of which will go again next year.

yosser hughes

sk8board wrote: »

This is data from 2017-2019. None of the figures include people who may leave the market due to covid concerns.

Also, the more LLs who continue to leave the market, the fewer places available to rent. Hard to see where a major slump can come from in the normal rental market. On the one side, the high end stuff may be hit, but it’s mostly REITs and at the social housing end of the market, more people will move to HAP and the Gov will pick up the tab.

And all that happening while we will build even fewer houses, which was too low to begin with

The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

sk8board

yosser hughes wrote: »

The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

You’re assuming the number of people looking to rent is dropping by the same number of LLs leaving the market, when in reality we have far more people looking for somewhere to rent.
There’s years of backlog before our homeless crisis could be considered stable.

yosser hughes

yosser hughes wrote: »

The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

Flatlining at a high level, rents were at a historic high, yet landlords were selling. If the new owner occupies it, it has left the rental market for good.

beauf

yosser hughes wrote: »

The market was flatlining before Covid. What happened the property after a landlord sells it? Does it disappear? Someone else will live in it.

If our population is increasing and some one new takes it then the existing demand is negatively impacted. Some will leave them empty. Some will be empty while they get refurbished, and some will say there's no pointing paying to have someone renting for free during the crisis.

beauf

If you look what happens after previous crashes and recessions is likely similar things will happen this time.

sk8board

One thing the gov has learned is that professional LLs and reits are far easier to deal with and ensure they comply with the rules. However most of the reits operate at the high end of the market, where the gov can’t afford to place HAP tenancies.

The middle market LL needs to professionalise too - people with multiple rentals should be allowed set up a company, pay corporate tax, and in return be beholden to the rules, accept HAP etc (just like they currently do, but without the reward).

The status quo is that the private landlord has been pushed to solve the public housing problem, and it’s simply not a sustainable investment market.

beauf

sk8board wrote: »

One thing the gov has learned is that professional LLs and reits are far easier to deal with and ensure they comply with the rules. .....

I don't see any data other than anecdotal stories to support this. First of they had to bring in the Tyrrelstown amendment specially to control them. Then they generally operate at the high end which I'm guessing has far less problems than other parts of the rental market.

The govt out sourced these parts of the rental market so they wouldn't have the expense of dealing with it. The expense of all this is now mostly carried by the landlord. Even the RTB is mostly funded by landlords.

Large landlords are such a small part and specialised party of the market that any stats to do with it will be distorted. Not at least due to the bias reporting on it.

sk8board

beauf wrote: »

I don't see any data other than anecdotal stories to support this. First of they had to bring in the Tyrrelstown amendment specially to control them. Then they generally operate at the high end which I'm guessing has far less problems than other parts of the rental market.

The govt out sourced these parts of the rental market so they wouldn't have the expense of dealing with it. The expense of all this is now mostly carried by the landlord. Even the RTB is mostly funded by landlords.

Large landlords are such a small part and specialised party of the market that any stats to do with it will be distorted. Not at least due to the bias reporting on it.

True. The point was simply that the current situation of treating rent as unearned income at paye rates isn’t sustainable for the guy with one or two rentals and he’s already leaving anyway - but why not try to keep mid-sized private LLs in the market by treating them like the REITs.
Only 10-15% of LLs in Ireland have 3 or more rentals, about 20-25k people, and build the middle and lower market around them.

beauf

There isn't the political will to do that.

We have examples of models from other countries that work we could copy. We decided not to learn from those countries and instead create an historic housing crisis.

sk8board

beauf wrote: »

There isn't the political will to do that.

We have examples of models from other countries that work we could copy. We decided not to learn from those countries and instead create an historic housing crisis.

It only works if it’s a viable investment for the LL, so the political will will need to be found, as they are years away from building sufficient houses.

as said many times, with the changing of the rules in 2012, the gov decided it would be the job of private LLs to resolve the public housing crisis.

The private LLs have given them their answer by exiting, and will continue to do so. If it was a viable investment, they’d still be in the market.

beauf

It's viable if you come in new set a high rent and have no problems.

But there's a lot of issues that can arise to make it not viable.

Edgware

58 one beds advertised for Dublin 6 last Friday on Daft. The rental market is in trouble and if a landlord wants a property rented he better start reducing rent.

Ozark707

Edgware wrote: »

58 one beds advertised for Dublin 6 last Friday on Daft. The rental market is in trouble and if a landlord wants a property rented he better start reducing rent.

Any idea what it would usually be running at? I would also say that anyone looking to rent should be bargaining hard at this time.

Bass Reeves

Ozark707 wrote: »

Any idea what it would usually be running at? I would also say that anyone looking to rent should be bargaining hard at this time.

Landlords with multiple properties may leave some empty. No point in driving down the rent in your other properties. That what the REIT's have done with the high end stuff for the last few years.

I have two and would be slow dropping much below present rents. Risk with wrong tenant and tax may justify leaving properties empty.

Edgware

Ozark707 wrote: »

Any idea what it would usually be running at? I would also say that anyone looking to rent should be bargaining hard at this time.

I look after a few places for friends in D6 (Not an agent) but go back to late 2019 after the colleges have started and you would do well to go into 15 to 20 max. Rents would have been between 1350 to 1800 depending on condition/location.
Some of the properties now are obvious former Airbnbs. Just check the bathroom photos of towels and soaps left for visitor use. There will be no tourists, weekenders from the country up for matches or concerts. Certainly rents can be negotiated. An empty apartment makes no money

Edgware

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Landlords with multiple properties may leave some empty. No point in driving down the rent in your other properties. That what the REIT's have done with the high end stuff for the last few years.

I have two and would be slow dropping much below present rents. Risk with wrong tenant and tax may justify leaving properties empty.

Thats the problem If you can get a decent tenant at 1300 a month its not a bad return. However if the tenant turns bad no money is worth the hassle

pc7

If colleges start going online or just one day on campus you won’t have the usual clamor come September either. People working remotely too, could see a big change, time will tell.

Cuddlesworth

Ha, I knew they would have to drop the stats at some point, this is what they are basing their article on.

https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/research/rtb-registration-statistics/

From 2017 up to the end of 2018 they published quarterly statistics and then they just stopped. And to be blunt, these are just totals so it takes seconds to complete. So stopping the publishing would have had to be deliberate and that really pisses me off. It was obvious landlords were leaving in droves and they were obfuscating the information. Who is responsible for that?

Its even worse when you look at the figures.

In 2019 private registrations dropped by 7k, but the overall numbers are being propped up by the housing agencies. And to be blunt, they can't even start stemming the flood from the market. We built what, circa 25k homes last year? Assuming a 50% ownership to rental market, shouldn't rental housing have increased by around 12k during the year?

Why drop the "number of new tenancies registered" stat, is it because the rental market has stagnated to the bare minimum of people moving?

Saying its properties coming out of negative equity might be correct but the reduction of circa 4k in number of landlords compared to 7k tenancies implies that a lot of multi-unit owners are selling up. Those are people who wanted to be landlords.

Bass Reeves

beauf wrote: »

There isn't the political will to do that.

We have examples of models from other countries that work we could copy. We decided not to learn from those countries and instead create an historic housing crisis.

5-7 years ago when REIT's first started to become involved in the Irish market, we were all told it would end the smaller landlord. I preficoat the time that REIT's could not compete and thereetents would be higher than smaller landlords.

Last Christmas a tenant left my house in a bit of a shambles, I needed it painted as we'll as needing a few other jobs done. I contacted s painter who wanted 1300 euro to paint it. In the end I got a local lad to give me a hand and we spend four days at the painting and doing the other few jobs,I spend 10-12 hours cleaning it and removing rubbish. Total cost were about 500 euro and a plumber cost me 50 euro more.

If a REIT had to do the same it would cost up on 2k. You now see why they stay well away from the lower end of the market. You need a 10%+ return to cover costs and risk. A 250k house needs an annual minimum rent of 25k for such an investment. A REIT might need 1-2%more

DubCount

pc7 wrote: »

If colleges start going online or just one day on campus you won’t have the usual clamor come September either. People working remotely too, could see a big change, time will tell.

Many colleges may be doing online classes in September 2020, but come 2021, students will be back in live lectures again. This is only a temporary help, and when students return, the impact will go away.

pc7

DubCount wrote: »

Many colleges may be doing online classes in September 2020, but come 2021, students will be back in live lectures again. This is only a temporary help, and when students return, the impact will go away.

I’m not fully convinced yet, if they can fit 200 students on a course in campus or 1000 remotely, it’ll be worth it to stay and build remote courses properly where they can (certain subjects obviously will need to be hands on). Especially if foreign students choose not to travel for PG courses, these are money spinners for the Uni’s. Either way interesting to see how it’ll play out. The work from home could have a bigger impact. Smaller towns cold be regenerated if people can work from home, I think most businesses who are now will keep at it. Saves costs on office space, more appealing for staff as reduces costs on rent, commute, quality of life etc. we shall see!

Edgware

Edgware wrote: »

I look after a few places for friends in D6 (Not an agent) but go back to late 2019 after the colleges have started and you would do well to go into 15 to 20 max. Rents would have been between 1350 to 1800 depending on condition/location.
Some of the properties now are obvious former Airbnbs. Just check the bathroom photos of towels and soaps left for visitor use. There will be no tourists, weekenders from the country up for matches or concerts. Certainly rents can be negotiated. An empty apartment makes no money

The daft report released 2 weeks ago put the numbers of properties returning to the rental sector from short let at the equivalent of 3 days normal supply. That is not going to significantly effect rental prices. Their report put the main driver for reductions in rentals down to lack of movement during lockdown and people leaving properties to go home as colleges/businesses closed. The real effect on rental prices will be more accurately measured at the end of 2020 when businesses/colleges open and people are free to go about their business.


Getting back to the topic of the thread, something is very wrong when small investors are leaving the market even though rent was at historic highs. That should not be happening as there was no way that supply would catch up with demand during that period. There was no impending crash in the property market that would have led owners to panic and sell their property. It seems that no matter how good the rent was, renting to tenants did not appeal to thousands of property owners at a time when it should have appealed most.

Edgware

Under normal circumstances we would have peaks and valleys in demand.
Late August to early October students are back, teachers/lecturers are back, newly qualified doctors might be changing hospitals etc. The usual changes then throughout the year with people taking up jobs etc. We cant be sure that it will go that way for the near future.
The law of supply and demand will come into play. If a potential tenant has a choice its only natural that they will try and bargain a landlord down. Have the property empty a month because you cant get the rent you were getting last year isnt a good idea.

Edgware

Edgware wrote: »

Under normal circumstances we would have peaks and valleys in demand.
Late August to early October students are back, teachers/lecturers are back, newly qualified doctors might be changing hospitals etc. The usual changes then throughout the year with people taking up jobs etc. We cant be sure that it will go that way for the near future.
The law of supply and demand will come into play. If a potential tenant has a choice its only natural that they will try and bargain a landlord down. Have the property empty a month because you cant get the rent you were getting last year isnt a good idea.

That depends. If you lower rent then it is locked going forward in a RPZ, only rising by 4% yearly from this lower level. If demand picks up when colleges/businesses open again, then, given the lack of supply and likelihood that new builds are now months behind, there is a reasonable chance that a LL will gain on the lower rent offered now as yearly increases will be from he higher level going forward. Also, we have to see if the lower rents now are just short term lets (<6 months) until the short let market restarts.

Edgware

Dav010 wrote: »

That depends. If you lower rent then it is locked going forward in a RPZ, only rising by 4% yearly from this lower level. If demand picks up when colleges/businesses open again, then, given the lack of supply and likelihood that new builds are now months behind, there is a reasonable chance that a LL will gain on the lower rent offered now as yearly increases will be from he higher level going forward. Also, we have to see if the lower rents now are just short term lets (<6 months) until the short let market restarts.

I accept your point about RPZ and a share of decent landlords who looked after good tenants lost out when rents started rising. But leaving a place empty makes no income. Its the nature of business

overkill602

5 r 6 years before my acc expressed caution towards the market his clients where scaling back for tax reasons now the most punitive in europe thats before the risk was added by new regs and vilification.
I know we all pay taxes average 2 or more unit puts you in 40% tax rate given very high compliance that a lot of revenue this excludes reit who can use a loop hole.
Those who can stay in the market would need to be loan free which means new entrants can only be the well resourced.

Bass Reeves

Edgware wrote: »

I accept your point about RPZ and a share of decent landlords who looked after good tenants lost out when rents started rising. But leaving a place empty makes no income. Its the nature of business

If a landlord has multiple units in much the same area in an RPZ he be as well off to let one empty as go chasing rentals down . Yes LL with single units will be under pressure to re-let but multiple unit owners can carry one in four or five rather than be giving 10-20% reductions. Reducing rent in a RPZ is a mugs game. A 20%drop might could take 5years to recover after rents stabilized

overkill602

Edgware wrote: »

I accept your point about RPZ and a share of decent landlords who looked after good tenants lost out when rents started rising. But leaving a place empty makes no income. Its the nature of business

Tax @ 50% it no problem leaving a couple of places empty

Graham

overkill602 wrote: »

Tax @ 50% it no problem leaving a couple of places empty

that would be an 'interesting' investment strategy

curious minds

the number of landlords exiting is close to the number of disputes on the RTB website - 14387 determination orders,
even when determinations are in LLs favor .....they are really not because they lose money and time, never see the money they are owed etc

also 78 HAP discrimination cases to the WRC ...where LLs are found to have discriminated 99% of the time and fined up to 15K

overkill602

Graham wrote: »

that would be an 'interesting' investment strategy

A hard left opinion no profit on rental income

sk8board

Edgware wrote: »

58 one beds advertised for Dublin 6 last Friday on Daft. The rental market is in trouble and if a landlord wants a property rented he better start reducing rent.

a small increase in One beds in D 6, at a moment in time when you can’t legitimately even do a showing, and the market has temporarily got a bunch of small Airbnb’s for perhaps the next 12 months.

Yep, the market is in trouble alright.

sk8board

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Ha, I knew they would have to drop the stats at some point, this is what they are basing their article on.

https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/research/rtb-registration-statistics/

From 2017 up to the end of 2018 they published quarterly statistics and then they just stopped. And to be blunt, these are just totals so it takes seconds to complete. So stopping the publishing would have had to be deliberate and that really pisses me off. It was obvious landlords were leaving in droves and they were obfuscating the information. Who is responsible for that?

Its even worse when you look at the figures.

In 2019 private registrations dropped by 7k, but the overall numbers are being propped up by the housing agencies. And to be blunt, they can't even start stemming the flood from the market. We built what, circa 25k homes last year? Assuming a 50% ownership to rental market, shouldn't rental housing have increased by around 12k during the year?

Why drop the "number of new tenancies registered" stat, is it because the rental market has stagnated to the bare minimum of people moving?

Saying its properties coming out of negative equity might be correct but the reduction of circa 4k in number of landlords compared to 7k tenancies implies that a lot of multi-unit owners are selling up. Those are people who wanted to be landlords.

I’ve been saying this for a few years - I don’t know why they obfuscate the headline number of registered landlords so much in their quarterly and annual reports (which I unfortunately read!).

e.g in 2012 there was 213k registered LLs, but that year they also issued 43,000 letters to unregistered LLs, without saying how many of those subsequently registered.

All past reports are here:
https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/rtb-publications/

I’d love to know how many of those 213k LLs are still in the market.

All we know for sure is there were 213k registered LLs in 2012 and there are 169k at the end of 2019.
It’s reasonable to assume that the 44k fall is actually closer to 70k (1/3) of the original 213k, with 25k new LL entrants post recession (myself included).

overkill602

Graham wrote: »

that would be an 'interesting' investment strategy

If your LL with a couple of units in an old pre63 building very popular in RPZs let 2 r 3 where the profit is taxed @20%; leave 1 r 2 empty because showing profit over 35k is taxed @40%
This tax rate does not apply to reits the higher rate is a disincentive to multi units LL especially where they are mortgage free

Graham

be as logical as asking your boss for a pay-cut to save on tax.

beauf

Graham wrote: »

be as logical as asking your boss for a pay-cut to save on tax.

People are fond on this forum of saying that a LL profit is mainly if not solely on the capital appreciation and acquisition of property, not the rent. Pointing out that a business needs cashflow to operate falls on deaf ears. But if it was true and the cost of renting exceeded the costs of renting, then it would make sense to leave it empty.

I know a few who never wanted to be LLs and kept properties empty and eventually sold them when they wanted the money back.

Ray Palmer

beauf wrote: »

People are fond on this forum of saying that a LL profit is mainly if not solely on the capital appreciation and acquisition of property, not the rent. Pointing out that a business needs cashflow to operate falls on deaf ears. But if it was true and the cost of renting exceeded the costs of renting, then it would make sense to leave it empty.

I know a few who never wanted to be LLs and kept properties empty and eventually sold them when they wanted the money back.

The thing is the expenses exist if you are renting or not so what you are saying doesn't make sense. By not letting you lose more money.

In very exceptional circumstances does it make sense. Where you would have multiple properties and one is rented well below market rates. Then leaving it empty to bump the rent up in two years of it not being let. Still very unlikely.

You would still make more money letting it so what you are saying doesn't hold water.