Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Awareness levels to the dangers are now at least getting some airing

Travel proposals worry Ministers
NPHET has recommended 14 days at ‘designated facility’ for all arriving in Ireland
Jennifer Bray, Freya McClements, Paul Cullen, Martin Wall
FREYA McCLEMENTS, PAUL CULLEN, MARTIN WALL Cabinet Ministers have expressed concern about proposals from public health officials to make it mandatory for travellers into Ireland to self-isolate for two weeks.
Ministers agreed yesterday to make it a legal requirement for travellers who arrive by plane or boat to fill out a form telling the State where they plan to isolate for 14 days.
From next Thursday, anyone who does not provide those details, or gives incorrect information, could face a fine of up to €2,500 or a six-month prison sentence.
Cabinet sources said Ministers discussed more stringent proposals, including making it illegal not to abide by the 14-day isolation period. However, fears were expressed at the meeting about the impact such a move would have on the economy in the longer term.

Scale of economic decisions too big for a caretaker government
Cliff Taylor
The outgoing Government has made the big, early decisions about the Covid-19 crisis. But it is starting to run out of road. The endless delay in forming the next government may be manageable – if the talks succeed and the three parties, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Greens, agree to form an administration before too long. But if the talks collapse, trouble awaits as key decisions will be put on hold, and legislation needed to enact measures already promised will face dangerous delays...... We will also need a new government to make key reopening decisions in the weeks ahead. Yes, the roadmap has been set down, but we are told it is a “living document”, which is the nice way of saying it might have to change. Flexibility is the only sensible approach here. But our reopening plan is very much at the cautious end internationally and this has consequences.

Government’s plan for re opening economy too cautious, says Goodbody
Eoin Burke-Kennedy
Dermot O’Leary of Goodbody said recovery was likely to be patchy
DERMOT O’LEARY OF GOODBODY SAID RECOVERY WAS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY
The Government’s plan to reopen the economy has been criticised as overly cautious.
Goodbody Stockbrokers said the lifting of restrictions here has been slower than in other countries and that this would hit the speed of recovery.
“Ireland’s success in controlling the virus suggests that the reopening plan could be accelerated, thus limiting the longer-term economic damage to jobs and the public finances,” the firm’s chief economist Dermot O’Leary said.


Higher interest rates pose major financial risk to Republic, Donohoe warns
Eoin Burke-Kennedy
Even “minute changes” in interest rates could pose a major financial risk to the State as it takes on more debt to deal with the pandemic, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe has warned.
Addressing an online seminar hosted by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), Mr Donohoe said the money being borrowed to support workers affected by the lockdown will have to be paid back or refinanced at higher interest rates in the future.
“Some appear to be arguing that we make the same mistake about public debt for Ireland as was made about private debt a decade ago,” he said, referencing the huge build-up in borrowing prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
Low interest rates “are not going to be a normal” and this poses a threat to highly indebted countries such as Ireland.


Retailers face huge monthly declines for remainder of 2020, research shows
Mark Paul
Leading figures in the retail sector want the Government’s reopening plan to be reviewed after detailed new industry research laid bare the huge monthly declines stores are facing for the rest of 2020.
The sector-by-sector survey of 360 chief executives operating 4,500 outlets, by industry group Retail Excellence and disclosed to The Irish Times, predicts in-store revenues will be down by an average of 65 per cent across the sector next month. Some sectors, such as cinemas, face total wipeout in June.
Even after lockdown is unwound, most retailers are facing a financial disaster due to capacity reductions from stringent social distancing, as well the effects of general economic malaise and consumer fear.
Christmas shopping
Chief executives across the sector predict an average total decline of almost a quarter in the crucial Christmas shopping period of November and December. Some sectors, such as jewellery, predict declines of more than a third in sales this Christmas. Most sectors will see growth in online sales, but many are coming off a low base and it won’t come close to making up for the in-store declines.
The Retail Excellence research asked the 360 chief executives across 16 industry sectors, excluding grocery, for their budgeted monthly declines for the rest of the year.
Cafes and fast food shops will be hardest hit, with declines of 95 per cent in June, falling to 50 per cent by September/October. “Social distancing is the issue,” said David Fitzsimons, chief executive of Retail Excellence.
Cinemas will also be particularly badly hit this year, with reopenings not allowed until August 10th. This contrasts with cinema reopenings across the rest of Europe from May or June. Even by November/December, Irish cinema chief executives say they are predicting declines of 36 per cent.
Weather the turmoil
Garden centres and DIY stores will weather the turmoil best, due to running large facilities often with outdoor components. Garden centre sales will be down in-store between 28 per cent and 11 per cent each month for the rest of the year, but will rise online by 105 per cent, in June, and by 43 per cent each month at year end.
The “tactile” sector of jewellery will be down this year between 74 per cent next month and 35 per cent by year end. The malaise in “fashion and lingerie” sales will continue right through the Christmas period with total declines for June of 73 per cent moderating to a one quarter drop for the last two months of the year.
Meanwhile, fashion online sales will jump by a predicted 107 per cent next month, moderating to a 57 per cent increase by December, as the sector faces “significant migration online, as what was an enjoyable in-store browsable experience is anything but now” due to anti-coronavirus measures.
Mr Fitzsimons said he believes the scale of the damage will be “so significant, the economy is on the verge of collapse”.
“I think the Government’s reopening phases will have to be rethought,” he said.
He said shopping centre retailers, in particular, will suffer “irreparable damage” as they are not allowed reopen until August, while street-entry retailers can reopen weeks before them and will swallow any pent-up demand.
“When August rolls around, I believe that parts of shopping centres will stay shuttered when they reopen because some retailers won’t see the point,” he said.
“I can hear the strain in the chief executives’ voices when I talk to them.”