Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

MrDavid1976 · 22-05-2020 06:55AM

marno21 wrote: »

After reading a reply to one of my posts here during the week, I did some further reading on this. Indeed this is the case, if there is 20% immunity it means 1 of every 5 potential hosts is unviable, and with every percent growth the chances of a host being viable increases.

This is a variable factor as well, if some potential super spreaders become immune, such as healthcare workers, it reduces the viability even more.

The more immune the population is, the less infectious the virus becomes. A lot of people (including me before) looked at herd immunity as more of a fixed percentage rather than the number of variables involved.

The theories involving immunity inherited from previous common cold infections may enhance this prospect also.

Unfortunately it seems that as we have only 2% of the population who may have the antibodies and immune, we will have to double down on the lockdown - better safe than sorry - so that means we ride this lockdown out until the end of the year and then consider whether to continue into 2021. It is fine though because money is cheap and the State can afford it.

Polar101 · 22-05-2020 07:38AM

marno21 wrote: »

This is a variable factor as well, if some potential super spreaders become immune, such as healthcare workers, it reduces the viability even more.

I think that's the interesting thing.. so far there has been a big number of infected healthcare workers. If a large percentage of them were immune in the future, then any patient coming in to a hospital (or wherever the contact happens) wouldn't be able to infect (as many) healthcare workers, limiting the spread of the virus a lot.

ZX7R · 22-05-2020 07:47AM

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

Unfortunately it seems that as we have only 2% of the population who may have the antibodies and immune, we will have to double down on the lockdown - better safe than sorry - so that means we ride this lockdown out until the end of the year and then consider whether to continue into 2021. It is fine though because money is cheap and the State can afford it.

The state can not afford it that the problem.
The EU stimulus package to be interduced shortly is to reboot the economy, not to not to subsidize an emergency covid-19 payment or any social welfare payment for that matter that is where the bulk of our borrowing so far has been used.

kk1970 · 22-05-2020 07:49AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Posted this in the relaxation of restrictions thread but probably something for here also

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0521/1139906-coronavirus-active-cases/

1,807 people were considered 'active' as of Sunday night

Little further into the article
"Due to the course of the disease in people, only a percentage of the 1,807 could be considered to be potentially infectious.

People can typically only spread the disease between the third and eighth day of infection. The department considers cases to be 'active' for a minimum of 14 days."

So 0.04 % of the population of ireland is active with covid 19.?

MrDavid1976 · 22-05-2020 07:57AM

ZX7R wrote: »

The state can not afford it that the problem.
The EU stimulus package to be interduced shortly is to reboot the economy, not to not to subsidize an emergency covid-19 payment or any social welfare payment for that matter that is where the bulk of our borrowing so far has been used.

I completely agree. Just highlighting the ludicrous nature of what some are suggesting.

And finally this week people are beginning to raise the red flags

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285?mode=amp

GazzaL · 22-05-2020 08:04AM

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I completely agree. Just highlighting the ludicrous nature of what some are suggesting.

And finally this week people are beginning to raise the red flags

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285?mode=amp

While we will be welcomed into other countries, the HSE/Government want us and visitors to Ireland to lock themselves in a room for 2 weeks on arrival. A complete and utter joke. They might as well plan a joint advertising campaign with Fáilte Ireland, Enterprise Ireland, and the IDA with the message "**** Tourism, **** Business".

Call me Al · 22-05-2020 08:17AM

I know it was mentioned this week at a press briefing but I was wondering about cases in the Roma and traveler communities.

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1262790858358820866?s=20

Has anyone ever said how many cases or deaths there have been in total within these communities out of the 20k+ total confirmed cases we have had?

Wibbs · 22-05-2020 08:21AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Prof Nolan referred to these type of studies in his briefing tonight. He says he thinks they are highly suspect and are not to be trusted.

I think he has a point. What sort of a killer virus would show no symptoms whatsoever in most people it infects (and yet horrible and lethal symptoms in a small number of others)?

Even in the symptomatic it's not a "killer virus" in the vast majority. So there's that. Smallpox it ain't.

Secondly when it does get fatal it kills who you expect it to kill, again in the vast percentage of cases. It aligns very closely with the demographics that are more likely to die anyway. The very old, more men than women, more poor than rich, those who are already chronically ill and so on. It's only odd for a respiratory virus when it comes to asthmatics and smokers where it doesn't hit them harder.

And there could be all sorts of reasons for the asymptomatic. An existing immunity because of a common cold coronavirus that did the rounds in the last few years for one, or more of an immune response because of an existing vaccine like BCG.

wadacrack · 22-05-2020 08:26AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Prof Nolan referred to these type of studies in his briefing tonight. He says he thinks they are highly suspect and are not to be trusted.

I think he has a point. What sort of a killer virus would show no symptoms whatsoever in most people it infects (and yet horrible and lethal symptoms in a small number of others)?

Something is wrong with those numbers coming back. Blood testing in Sweden indicates that Stockholm (the Covid hotspot in Scandinavia) has only 7% of people showing traces of Covid.

Most professional athletes that have tested positive have been asymptomatic

Wibbs · 22-05-2020 08:27AM

GazzaL wrote: »

While we will be welcomed into other countries, the HSE/Government want us and visitors to Ireland to lock themselves in a room for 2 weeks on arrival. A complete and utter joke.

Yep. If they had brought in quarantine along with the lockdown in March then game ball, but god forbid they have a proactive thought in their heads. The gov and the HSE are with few exceptions just doing what they've done throughout; fcuk all, or months too late. They really are a pack of incompetent gombeens and have amply demonstrated it in this crisis and our media have done nothing to call them on it and people still console themselves that ah sure we did well, be grand.

Miike · 22-05-2020 08:29AM

Might be of interest to some of you: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=367267&nPage=1

Talks about reinfection / repositives and Koreas experience of same. Interesting read.

ZX7R · 22-05-2020 08:34AM

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I completely agree. Just highlighting the ludicrous nature of what some are suggesting.

And finally this week people are beginning to raise the red flags

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285?mode=amp

Two weeks ago France tried to bring a mandatory two week period of isolation for incoming flight the legislation ,it went through both there house of parliament it failed because of EU law.
The legislation was sought by there health minister on recommendations of there medical advisors.
Simon Harris has been quite mute on the situation since then.
Two days ago the EU commission released it's report on Ireland response to covid-19 and recommendation moving forward the full report is a lot of reading but interestingly the report reminds the Irish government that it a member of the EU and uses the euro and needs to be inline with the rest of Europe moving forward.

NegativeCreep · 22-05-2020 08:38AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285?mode=amp

Great article from the Irish times. The last 2 paragraphs especially. Some people seem to treat lockdown like a catholic biddy treats a pilgrimage. The longer, more arduous and more soul destroying the better!

stephenjmcd · 22-05-2020 08:40AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Two weeks ago France tried to bring a mandatory two week period of isolation for incoming flight the legislation ,it went through both there house of parliament it failed because of EU law.
The legislation was sought by there health minister on recommendations of there medical advisors.
Simon Harris has been quite mute on the situation since then.
Two days ago the EU commission released it's report on Ireland response to covid-19 and recommendation moving forward the full report is a lot of reading but interestingly the report reminds the Irish government that it a member of the EU and uses the euro and needs to be inline with the rest of Europe moving forward.

Yeah regardless of what the CMO wants with regards to mandatory isolation, at this stage if government tried to go with it I'd expect Brussels to turn around and say nope sorry lads you're signed up to our rules and laws and this is the way we want things done across Europe. They wont go against them seeing as the EU controls what happens to us regarding brexit so they can't exactly piss them off

Miike · 22-05-2020 08:44AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Two weeks ago France tried to bring a mandatory two week period of isolation for incoming flight the legislation ,it went through both there house of parliament it failed because of EU law.
The legislation was sought by there health minister on recommendations of there medical advisors.
Simon Harris has been quite mute on the situation since then.
Two days ago the EU commission released it's report on Ireland response to covid-19 and recommendation moving forward the full report is a lot of reading but interestingly the report reminds the Irish government that it a member of the EU and uses the euro and needs to be inline with the rest of Europe moving forward.

Can you link me that report?

polesheep · 22-05-2020 08:57AM

Here we go again.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nursing-homes-asked-to-take-in-patients-without-negative-coronavirus-swab-39225509.html

growleaves · 22-05-2020 08:58AM

https://www.theonion.com/benadryl-introduces-new-controlled-coma-pills-to-sedate-1843582924

Miike · 22-05-2020 09:00AM

polesheep wrote: »

Here we go again.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nursing-homes-asked-to-take-in-patients-without-negative-coronavirus-swab-39225509.html

Rejection: Paul Reid, HSE CEO, said there was no evidence that infection spread into homes by hospital discharges

What kind of distorted bullshít is that? It didn't happen so lets make the mistake of letting it happen. Jesus wept.

growleaves · 22-05-2020 09:01AM

polesheep wrote: »

Here we go again.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nursing-homes-asked-to-take-in-patients-without-negative-coronavirus-swab-39225509.html

Hey are you objecting to sending Covid patients into nursing homes where they'll infect others? It's okay we just place more restrictions on commerce and go back to 2km.

ZX7R · 22-05-2020 09:02AM

Miike wrote: »

Can you link me that report?

www.ecdu europa.eu

polesheep · 22-05-2020 09:02AM

Miike wrote: »

What kind of distorted bullshít is that? It didn't happen so lets make the mistake of letting it happen. Jesus wept.

I'll say it again, the HSE is not fit for purpose.

polesheep · 22-05-2020 09:03AM

growleaves wrote: »

Hey are you objecting to sending Covid patients into nursing homes where they'll infect others? It's okay we just place more restrictions on commerce and go back to 2km.

It's the new normal.

stephenjmcd · 22-05-2020 09:04AM

polesheep wrote: »

Here we go again.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nursing-homes-asked-to-take-in-patients-without-negative-coronavirus-swab-39225509.html

Ah yeah sure let's do that and when it goes tits up just blame the public, you're doing well just not enough

Jim_Hodge · 22-05-2020 09:06AM

growleaves wrote: »

Hey are you objecting to sending Covid patients into nursing homes where they'll infect others? It's okay we just place more restrictions on commerce and go back to 2km.

So are you advocating sending patients not yet clear of Covid in to a closed setting and risking the lives of those living there? What's your point or your solution?

stephenjmcd · 22-05-2020 09:07AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

So are you advocating sending patients not yet clear of Covid in to a closed setting and risking the lives of those living there? What's your point or your solution?

He's taking the piss, its sarcasm, why would anyone send them in that's the whole point, they do this then blame the public if cases increase hence restrictions.

ZX7R · 22-05-2020 09:10AM

Miike wrote: »

Can you link me that report?

Here's the full report for Ireland PDF download

Wibbs · 22-05-2020 09:13AM

polesheep wrote: »

Here we go again.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nursing-homes-asked-to-take-in-patients-without-negative-coronavirus-swab-39225509.html

Jesus Christ the incompetence on show is near criminal at this stage. You could not make this up. :mad:

NegativeCreep · 22-05-2020 09:18AM

polesheep wrote: »

Here we go again.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nursing-homes-asked-to-take-in-patients-without-negative-coronavirus-swab-39225509.html

Why are they even being asked that? Are the hospitals over run? Did we not effectively rent our all the private hospitals in the country? Is there not a single bed to spare?

It is such a brain dead thing to even think to do. Just keep them in our near empty hospitals!

Grand to do this but don’t even think about travelling 6km away from your house cause that’ll kill your granny somehow. The mind boggles.

ZX7R · 22-05-2020 09:23AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah regardless of what the CMO wants with regards to mandatory isolation, at this stage if government tried to go with it I'd expect Brussels to turn around and say nope sorry lads you're signed up to our rules and laws and this is the way we want things done across Europe. They wont go against them seeing as the EU controls what happens to us regarding brexit so they can't exactly piss them off

Just to add to add about mandatory quarantine our government could be able to issue it for the duration of our emergency technically but that opens another can of worms due to our common border.
Also on the contrary to news reports Tony Holohan was looking for it to be interduced at the start of the lockdown.
If they didn't interduce then it will be impossible now.

Boggles · 22-05-2020 09:36AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285?mode=amp

Great article from the Irish times. The last 2 paragraphs especially. Some people seem to treat lockdown like a catholic biddy treats a pilgrimage. The longer, more arduous and more soul destroying the better!

It really isn't.

Gutter journalism taking pot shots using silly comparisons with countries that had actual proper lockdowns and are at different phases then we are.

He also wins Edgelord bingo getting in all the words, Dystopian, Draconian, ect.

Boring.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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