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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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Comments

  • #7172
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,150 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    NegativeCreep wrote: »
    Thought by who?

    Dr Ammon medical director of the ECDC for one. Article from today: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-news-second-wave-warning-eu-andrea-ammon-a9526241.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1590070406

    Plenty more on internet too if you look for it.


  • #7173
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Tockman wrote: »
    Hasn't it be shown that herd immunity can be got from as low as 20 percent of the population.

    Every incremental increase in the number of people with the virus will slow down the rate of growth. But 20%, of course will not stop spread, it would have to be at least a majority of people


  • #7174
    MrDavid1976
    Closed Accounts Posts: 305 ✭✭MrDavid1976


    dundalkfc10 wrote: »
    What about the 100,000 tests a week?

    This is not the same testing. What they plan to do is to take representative samples to see what proportion of the population has the virus antibodies. They will extrapopulate these to estimate the whole of population. They are taking from two regions to ensure it is more representative and indeed such an approach could give a reasonable estimate.


  • #7175
    NegativeCreep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,351 ✭✭✭NegativeCreep


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Dr Ammon medical director of the ECDC for one. Article from today: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-news-second-wave-warning-eu-andrea-ammon-a9526241.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1590070406

    Plenty more on internet too if you look for it.

    Nothing about autumn in that


  • #7176
    Gregor Samsa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    dundalkfc10 wrote: »
    What about the 100,000 tests a week?

    The 100,000 tests a week was for diagnosis (which thankfully turned out not to be needed at that level). The 5,000 antibody tests are a different thing, and won't be per week, they're basically a one-off on a selected group of people in two geographic areas (although to be repeated a few times over the next year to see the trend). It's a much more structured, manageable process than diagnosis, which is demand driven.


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  • #7177
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    crossman47 wrote: »
    This thing about two hours is being totally misunderstood. They are not giving that advice to all businesses. They are only trying to say that anyone in a room for two hours may be considered a close contact. So its fine for businesses to have 20 people in an office, but if one of them tests positive all 20 will be contacted and tested, as they said they are now testing all close contacts regardless of symptoms. The other 19 will have to self isolate until they get a result. Its not more regulation for business, its a definition of close contact thats been there all along but only came to prominence now because Dail officials decided, based on that, they could not let all members of a Dail Committee have to potentially self isolate. I think its the decision of the Dail thats the problem, not the general health advice.
    That is the problem, in the example you give, the business closes down if one staff member tests positive.

    Yet if the same occurs in a meat factory, the factory stays open.

    Businesses need to know air volume per employee, changes per hour, filtration required. Those figures are known since without those parameters a decision could not be made to allow a meat plant to remain open.

    HSE/NPHET must make those parameters available to businesses so that they can plan effectively to minimise risk and maximize the chances of the business remaining viable.

    Testing turnaround time promises are empty until proven in such cases, one cannot plan on empty promises.


  • #7178
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Every incremental increase in the number of people with the virus will slow down the rate of growth. But 20%, of course will not stop spread, it would have to be at least a majority of people

    How does anyone have the foggiest idea how many people have been infected or who are completely resistant or asymptotic.
    The only thing we seem to know for certain about this virus is that we know feck all about it. Everyone is just guessing.


  • #7179
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    How does anyone have the foggiest idea how many people have been infected or who are completely resistant or asymptotic.
    The only thing we seem to know for certain about this virus is that we know feck all about it. Everyone is just guessing.

    Jesus, why does everyone keep saying this? We have a very good idea of how many people have been infected, there have been several large scale serum tests in New York, France, Netherlands, Spain and Sweden.


  • #7180
    Gregor Samsa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Jesus, why does everyone keep saying this? We have a very good idea of how many people have been infected, there have been several large scale serum tests in New York, France, Netherlands, Spain and Sweden.

    And we're just about to do one here.


  • #7181
    Tockman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 166 ✭✭Tockman


    Could we not get herd immunity from the young healthy population, and leave the vulnerable population cocoon?


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  • #7182
    Ineedaname
    Closed Accounts Posts: 369 ✭✭Ineedaname


    Tockman wrote: »
    Could we not get herd immunity from the young healthy population, and leave the vulnerable population cocoon?

    If it were really that easy do you not think we'd be doing it already?


  • #7183
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I must say the current testing is very efficient. Got referred by my doctor on Tuesday, got my test Wednesday (yesterday) and got my negative result this afternoon by text. At least I know I’m not infectious to others and can have my abdominal pain & general discomfort fort investigated in a non-Covid setting, making it safe all around.


  • #7184
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Ineedaname wrote: »
    If it were really that easy do you not think we'd be doing it already?

    That doesn't answer the question.


  • #7185
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Tockman wrote: »
    Could we not get herd immunity from the young healthy population, and leave the vulnerable population cocoon?

    Yes, we could. The problem, however, is that some people would not be happy being cocooned while others were able to get on with their lives. hence our enormously expensive general lockdown.


  • #7186
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    The ice cream man was back to work today... funny I don’t remember that being in the phase one plans?

    Lovely seeing him handle the ice cream cones and coin change from all the kids and parents with the same pair of gloves on throughout. No social distancing to be seen among the kids or parents either.


  • #7187
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Every incremental increase in the number of people with the virus will slow down the rate of growth. But 20%, of course will not stop spread, it would have to be at least a majority of people

    After reading a reply to one of my posts here during the week, I did some further reading on this. Indeed this is the case, if there is 20% immunity it means 1 of every 5 potential hosts is unviable, and with every percent growth the chances of a host being viable increases.

    This is a variable factor as well, if some potential super spreaders become immune, such as healthcare workers, it reduces the viability even more.

    The more immune the population is, the less infectious the virus becomes. A lot of people (including me before) looked at herd immunity as more of a fixed percentage rather than the number of variables involved.

    The theories involving immunity inherited from previous common cold infections may enhance this prospect also.


  • #7188
    laurah591
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    rm212 wrote: »
    The ice cream man was back to work today... funny I don’t remember that being in the phase one plans?

    Lovely seeing him handle the ice cream cones and coin change from all the kids and parents with the same pair of gloves on throughout. No social distancing to be seen among the kids or parents either.

    lol that's what my 10 year old said to me yesterday when he went to get an ice cream....


  • #7189
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    rm212 wrote: »
    The ice cream man was back to work today... funny I don’t remember that being in the phase one plans?

    Lovely seeing him handle the ice cream cones and coin change from all the kids and parents with the same pair of gloves on throughout. No social distancing to be seen among the kids or parents either.

    Report it.


  • #7190
    Ineedaname
    Closed Accounts Posts: 369 ✭✭Ineedaname


    polesheep wrote: »
    Yes, we could. The problem, however, is that some people would not be happy being cocooned while others were able to get on with their lives. hence our enormously expensive general lockdown.

    How do you propose we go about doing it?


  • #7191
    Gregor Samsa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    Tockman wrote: »
    Could we not get herd immunity from the young healthy population, and leave the vulnerable population cocoon?

    There’s a number of problems with attempting this. First and foremost, immunity - or the level/duration of it - is not a given with this illness. Secondly, identifying the “vulnerable” is more complicated than just looking at age or diagnosed conditions. Third, assuming that immunity via exposure is possible, it would take years to get to the point of enough people being infected to suppress the illness (in the absence of other restrictions). Fourth, partial restrictions are difficult to implement or enforce.

    But it does sound like a nice, easy solution, which makes it attractive to ponder. Until you look at the details.


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  • #7192
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    rm212 wrote: »
    The ice cream man was back to work today... funny I don’t remember that being in the phase one plans?

    Lovely seeing him handle the ice cream cones and coin change from all the kids and parents with the same pair of gloves on throughout. No social distancing to be seen among the kids or parents either.

    Ice creams vans have been back for a couple of weeks now in Dublin.


  • #7193
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Ineedaname wrote: »
    How do you propose we go about doing it?

    The same way that I proposed months ago; lockdown for the vulnerable with proper protection for residents in care/nursing homes. If we can lock down a population, surely we can lockdown one section of it.


  • #7194
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Report it.

    For what purpose?


  • #7195
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Gregor Samsa wrote: »
    There’s a number of problems with attempting this. First and foremost, immunity - or the level/duration of it - is not a given with this illness. Secondly, identifying the “vulnerable” is more complicated than just looking at age or diagnosed conditions. Third, assuming that immunity via exposure is possible, it would take years to get to the point of enough people being infected to suppress the illness (in the absence of other restrictions). Fourth, partial restrictions are difficult to implement or enforce.

    But it does sound like a nice, easy solution, which makes it attractive to ponder. Until you look at the details.

    First, immunity is a given. Second, 'complicated' doesn't mean impossible. Third, If it takes years to get to get suppression then this thing isn't as virulent as thought. Fourth, 'difficult' isn't impossible.


  • #7196
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    For what purpose?
    He's selling Covid Sundaes for god's sake and must be stopped.


  • #7197
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,708 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Its failed in all scientific trials so far.
    Hector Savage wrote: »
    YES! YES! YEEESSSS!!!

    ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD ORANGE MAN BAD

    This is taking white knighting for Trump to whole new depth.


  • #7198
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    polesheep wrote: »
    The same way that I proposed months ago; lockdown for the vulnerable with proper protection for residents in care/nursing homes. If we can lock down a population, surely we can lockdown one section of it.

    GENIUS IDEA!!! Do you know what would make it even better? A big sign above the main gates (locked) that reads: "Arbeit macht frei".


  • #7199
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    New Home wrote: »
    GENIUS IDEA!!! Do you know what would make it even better? A big sign above the main gates (locked) that reads: "Arbeit macht frei".

    Thank you for proving my point. For you, it's everyone locked down or no one locked down. Nice to see your true colours.


  • #7200
    Gregor Samsa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,140 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    polesheep wrote: »
    First, immunity is a given. Second, 'complicated' doesn't mean impossible. Third, If it takes years to get to get suppression then this thing isn't as virulent as thought. Fourth, 'difficult' isn't impossible.

    Oh, ok. Well I guess things are going better in your alternative reality than here in the real world.


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  • #7201
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    polesheep wrote: »
    Thank you for proving my point. For you, it's everyone locked down or no one locked down. Nice to see your true colours.

    How do you propose those vulnerable ones who you want locked away be looked after?


This discussion has been closed.
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