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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • #6422
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    I suppose when you can't respond with a valid riposte, dramatics are the go to position.

    The riposte was there... if you looked.

    :rolleyes:


  • #6423
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    thelad95 wrote: »
    You know I personally was very much for all the restrictions and have kept to them wholeheartedly since day 1. However, I and indeed many others, are beginning to grow weary.

    A few weeks ago, when this was at it's peak, it was really only the bald headed, 5G conspiracy wielding uneducated nutcases (you know the type) who were really against this thing and feeling like 'der civel libertees were been violated by de caretaker guberment'.

    However, this pedestrian lifting of restrictions and a certain air of condescension from the NPHET heads towards the general public who have followed the admittedly necessary draconian restrictions for over 2 months now, will very quickly lose the support of the public. We've been at this for long enough now, we know to wash our hands, to keep our distance, us office workers will continue working from home, hand-shakes are a thing of the past etc etc etc.

    Community transmission is virtually extinct (the words of the CMO of our HSE, Dr. Tony Holohan). The risk of getting the disease now is a lot lot lower than it was back in early March when the disease was very much here but our very own government refused to take the necessary measures until being handheld by the WHO declaring it a pandemic. Even then, they stumbled their way into taking the necessary measures, remember that pubs would have opened on St. Patrick's day only for the Vintners to pull the plug voluntarily.

    This same government now wants to drag this thing out over the entire summer, continuing the suffering of thousands of people who've been unemployed as a result of this and driving more and more small businesses into permanent extinction. This is now the time when we should all be emerging from a horrible horrible few weeks into a new dawn, seeing friends and family we haven't seen for months and feeling their embrace and enjoying the warmth of their company.

    It will remain to be seen but I sincerely sincerely hope that the government can and will accelerate life getting back to normal. More than anything, our normal health service needs to resume as best it can as well. Just wait and see we'll have a massive spike in cancer cases and fatalities in the next few years, a clear secondary tragedy in all this.


    It has to be done slowly to monitor the situation. If they see a rise in cases, they can monitor the situation and implement contact tracing to reduce infection cases some more. We can't go full steam ahead down on that accelerator.

    Like say for example, an area with a current cluster of cases, if the travel restriction is lifted, maybe some people might go travelling around Ireland and bring the infection with them and start a new cluster of covid cases. Thats just one example.

    We are also told that the road map is a living document and its open to change and that makes sense and that has also happened. Dentists weren't due to go back until July but they implemented some changes. I think they have higher grade masks and face shields now and now some dentists are getting back to work. There is the document changing.

    We just can't go too fast with this or we will be in trouble in no time at all, with an increase in covid19 cases.


  • #6424
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    The riposte was there... if you looked.

    :rolleyes:

    It wasn't.


  • #6425
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Arghus wrote: »
    The head of the ESRI is on record as saying that theoretically the state could maintain this level of borrowing for up to a year if neccessary. He's not saying that's a good situation, but this idea that the state simply won't find the means to borrow in the short to medium term is overblown. There's a lot of funding mechanisms still open and flowing freely.

    Technically we couldn't afford the first lockdown - it has blown a massive hole in the public finances - but when it was deemed necessary it was done. There are times when there's a unique and clear existential threat to public health - and then some of the old ways of thinking about how the state pays for things become a question for another day.

    The Department of Health, the HSE and the Government are all on record - each of them multiple times - as saying that restrictions could be imposed if the future situation with the growth of the disease go south. They have been crystal clear: If we go back to a situation like in March, with a spiraling infection rate, then you can bet 100% we'll experience another lockdown situation. It's the only proven way to get a handle on the spread of the virus.

    All the which makes how we exit this period beyond crucial. Being extra cautious right now gives us more confidence for the future. I can't understand people's mad desire to throw the shackles of lockdown off with such fervour. It works. The confirmed cases per day has fallen steadily downward week by week. We're now in double figures, based on that trajectory we could conceivably achieve something akin to what New Zealand has within another fortnight to three weeks. That's unbelievable, considering where we were in relation to them a few weeks ago.

    It was also pointed out to the head of the ERSI that the technical theory of borrowing for a full year is technically possible but was quickly shot down because factually we could never pay it back


  • #6426
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Given that 2.5% of those qualifying for a test are currently testing produce, if it was done at random, the positive rate would be a tiny fraction of that - probably less than 0.1%. To have sufficient power to detect a change, your study design would need a very large sample size. Would do the stats on it if I could be bothered getting my laptop


    Fair enough but as it is we don't know. There may be many asymptomatic cases out there.


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  • #6427
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    South Africa really seemed to have it's outbreak under control for a long time, but it has reported almost 50 deaths in the last two days. Very small for the size of the country, but a big increase on recent months


  • #6428
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Catching up with last nights Claire Byrne show and they gave us an example of what a pub with social distancing measures would look like using the Fair City pub. It was an enjoyable watch for sure and very clever.

    That, in real life, a pub with social distancing measures, its never going to work.


  • #6429
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ZX7R wrote: »
    It was also pointed out to the head of the ERSI that the technical theory of borrowing for a full year is technically possible but was quickly shot down because factually we could never pay it back

    Don’t need to pay it back, just recover enough in time to allow us refinance. And the interest rates have never been lower


  • #6430
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,116 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    It is indeed. And thousands will die due to delayed cancer treatment and diagnosis.

    Easing the restrictions dramatically e.g. reopening pubs etc IS NOT the same as not providing timely treatment or diagnosis or screening. That's just a poor excuse from the HSE (or whoever)'s part.
    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    You do realise that the quality of life in both health outcomes and services we enjoy are directly related to a functioning economy.
    Dr. Bre wrote: »
    Surviving isn’t living

    No, but do you know something? You (and those who you've helped by not infecting them) might just live long enough to see both the economy and the quality of your life improve. Which you (or they) can't do, if you (or they) are dead or suffer life-long repercussions.

    The motto seems to be "I WANT IT ALL AND I WANT IT NOW!!", out there.


  • #6431
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,361 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Don’t need to pay it back, just recover enough in time to allow us refinance. And the interest rates have never been lower

    Plus inflation will help, pus GDP growth.


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  • #6432
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Fair enough but as it is we don't know. There may be many asymptomatic cases out there.

    My guestimate assumes we are currently only detecting 10% of actual cases


  • #6433
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,112 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Catching up with last nights Claire Byrne show and they gave us an example of what a pub with social distancing measures would look like using the Fair City pub. It was an enjoyable watch for sure and very clever.

    That, in real life, a pub with social distancing measures, its never going to work.

    Pubs and nightclubs might not open until later next year.


  • #6434
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,712 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    It's his or hers opinion just like (and I'm not saying you here) the people on here who swear that there'll be a second wave its their opinion but they'd think its gospel at times saying it'll definitely happen, challenge it and your an awful person and labelled an idiot.

    Nobody on either side of the argument knows what'll happen for definite but can give their opinion on it.

    That "opinion" is based on absolutely nothing though. Just a selfish desire to see restrictions lifted.

    On the other hand, there is a VERY REAL possibility that infections and deaths could rise if we abandon the restrictions that have helped us combat Covid-19 thus far.

    We know that Covid is an extremely virulent disease that spreads quickly and often with asymptomatic cases doing the spreading. With that knowledge, it doesn't take that much of an expansion in logic to understand that a premature lifting of restrictions, coupled with asymptomatic cases going around spreading the virus, is going to lead to a rapid rise in infections.

    So, one "opinion" is based on the evidence gathered so far and the other is plucked out of thin air.

    This isn't rocket science.


  • #6435
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,160 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    ZX7R wrote: »
    It was also pointed out to the head of the ERSI that the technical theory of borrowing for a full year is technically possible but was quickly shot down because factually we could never pay it back

    Do you have a link for this? I'm not asking in the usual passive aggressive way that people usually demand a source, more that I'd be interested to read that.


  • #6436
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    New Home wrote: »
    The motto seems to be "I WANT IT ALL AND I WANT IT NOW!!", out there.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hFDcoX7s6rE&feature=youtu.be


  • #6437
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    New Home wrote: »
    Easing the restrictions dramatically e.g. reopening pubs etc IS NOT the same as not providing timely treatment or diagnosis or screening. That's just a poor excuse from the HSE (or whoever)'s part.





    No, but do you know something? You (and those who you've helped by not infecting them) might just live long enough to see both the economy and the quality of your life improve. Which you (or they) can't do, if you (or they) are dead or suffer life-long repercussions.

    The motto seems to be "I WANT IT ALL AND I WANT IT NOW!!", out there.

    The only thing that stood out in your post was reopening pubs, as soon as I see that referenced when absolutely no one who is looking for an easement is calling for. I completely dismiss the comment.


  • #6438
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,116 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The only thing that stood out in your post was reopening pubs, as soon as I see that referenced when absolutely no one who is looking for an easement is calling for. I completely dismiss the comment.

    Dismiss away, like you're dismissing everything else (you might have spotted the e.g., too - it's not the same as i.e., BTW).


  • #6439
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Deleted User wrote: »
    My guestimate assumes we are currently only detecting 10% of actual cases


    You could well be right. I'd say 20% to 10%


  • #6440
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    New Home wrote: »
    Dismiss away, like you're dismissing everything else (you might have spotted the e.g., too - it's not the same as i.e., BTW).

    I dismiss anyone that references pubs when no one here is calling for their reopening.


  • #6441
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Pubs and nightclubs might not open until later next year.

    I'm not a big drinker but it's sad to see all the same. I would love to see pubs thriving. I would love to see my village busy again and packed with people but I understand why the pubs can't open.


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  • #6442
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    The news of the health and safety officers attending to workplaces is great news. There's probably many employers who would gladly throw their employees under the bus with this virus.


  • #6443
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Tony EH wrote: »
    That "opinion" is based on absolutely nothing though. Just a selfish desire to see restrictions lifted.
    .

    The opinion is based on the South Korea and strict social distancing approach, just because my opinion disagrees with you makes it no less valid.
    I wonder why Dr Ryan of the WHO has said the Swedish approach should be a template.


  • #6444
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Pubs and nightclubs might not open until later next year.

    How on earth could you know that? Such a mad statement unless you are some kind of insider.


  • #6445
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    I wasn't following the news all day.


    Why on earth are meat plants riddled with this virus?

    Why aren't factories seeing clusters but meat plants are?

    What is the 2 hour thing?


  • #6446
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,458 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Don’t need to pay it back, just recover enough in time to allow us refinance. And the interest rates have never been lower
    And that very fact suggests rates would be higher when it needs refinancing. The problem is interest rates could double, triple, quadruple or more. And unlike this virus many of us have experienced interest rates in double digits in our lifetime

    Even if we can maintaining such low interest rates it could well be as a result of/in line with declining living standards. Like it or not, someone has to pay for all of this, and all borrowing does is put the cost on future generations

    Then of course, who will pay for the next crisis?


  • #6447
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    owlbethere wrote: »
    I wasn't following the news all day.


    Why on earth are meat plants riddled with this virus?

    Why aren't factories seeing clusters but meat plants are?

    What is the 2 hour thing?

    Meat plants have a large amount of immigrant workers living in shared accommodation from what I understand


  • #6448
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Beasty wrote: »
    And that very fact suggests rates would be higher when it needs refinancing. The problem is interest rates could double, triple, quadruple or more. And unlike this virus many of us have experienced interest rates in double digits in our lifetime

    Even if we can maintaining such low interest rates it could well be as a result of/in line with declining living standards. Like it or not, someone has to pay for all of this, and all borrowing does is put the cost on future generations

    Then of course, who will pay for the next crisis?
    The public servants. I jest. I would hope that there is some sensibility in government about open certain sectors quicker if safe and appropriate.


  • #6449
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Adrian Hill who's co leading the Oxford vaccine on prime time sounds quite confident regarding their vacinne. Proven in the monkeys with an extremely high dose of Covid that it didn't get to the lungs, some trace of virus in the upper nasal passage but that's after an extremely high dose of covid.

    To have a vacinne that potentially reduces the extreme effects of covid would be fantastic. He sounds quite optimistic


  • #6450
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,780 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    growleaves wrote: »
    How on earth could you know that? Such a mad statement unless you are some kind of insider.

    By the very nature of what the drug alcohol does, even in relative moderation...

    Changes of mood,

    Slows down your brains abilities to process information,

    Reduces the bodies natural immune system,

    Decreases the ability of the prefrontal cortex of your brain, impaired decision making folllows.. (not ideal in current climate)


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  • #6451
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,712 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    New Home wrote: »
    The motto seems to be "I WANT IT ALL AND I WANT IT NOW!!", out there.

    6e5ab25a74e61809a967920afd1d48d7.jpg


This discussion has been closed.
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