Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

17-05-2020 11:10AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Is that from 2 to 4 or a bigger number?

Increased by 18

17-05-2020 11:13AM

coastwatch wrote: »

I hear this a lot, but what is this latest research that concludes actual cases are a factor of at least 10 times confirmed cases?

The WHOs Mike Ryan was very dismissive of the notion of any significant asymptomatic / head immunity in a briefing earlier this week.

The 15% (13.3 in Ireland) hospitalisations is based on confirmed cases, but is also the experience of countries around the world, with both very high and lower levels on testing, so until there is real evidence of high levels of unconfirmed cases in populations, it's just wishful thinking to use lower estimates for the percentage of cases requiring hospitalisation.

Spain -277,000 confirmed cases. Anti body testing estimated 5% of the population have generated antibodies. That’s about 2.4million people, or 9x the confirmed cases

Gregor Samsa · 17-05-2020 11:15AM

ek motor wrote: »

Yes it looks like that's what has been assumed, even though there are lots of first hand accounts of this virus dragging on for 6/7 weeks. I'd be curious to know how many have actually 'recovered' 100%. Time will tell.

I’m not sure if “the virus” is dragging on for 6 or 7 weeks, in that people still have a viral load at this time. It seems the illness can, which seems to be caused by the immune system going into overdrive and remaining so even after the virus has gone. There’s a mechanism known as a “cytokine storm” that occurs where the body produces a massive amount of inflammatory chemicals called cytokines that cause major damage to tissues and organs. This can last for many weeks. This occurred in SARS too, and is seen in many bad cases of Covid 19. But this part of the illness, while potentially fatal or life-changing, isn’t in itself contagious.

igCorcaigh · 17-05-2020 11:24AM

Squeaksoutloud wrote: »

I am not one to downplay the seriousness of the virus but the 15% you refer to..or 13.5 in Ireland is only based on confirmed cases. We know from latest research that actual cases are at least a factor of 10 of that. So hospitalisation rates would be a fraction of that 15%. Still death rates of 0.5-1% still likely based on the Spanish serological results.

It annoys me that RTE and others still refer to this 1 in 5 people requiring hospitalisation but that is overestimating it massively.

Yeah, that annoys me too. They've used the 1 in 5 figure from the early days. Poor journalism.

ZX7R · 17-05-2020 11:27AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Number of suspected cases in Letterkenny University Hospital has doubled in one day. I wonder what the hell is going on there.

From the local meat processing plant, local td was demanding that positive tests be hospitalized for the safety of the public bla bla bla ECT ECT

Mike3287 · 17-05-2020 11:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain -277,000 confirmed cases. Anti body testing estimated 5% of the population have generated antibodies. That’s about 2.4million people, or 9x the confirmed cases

We should be doing those tests here

Those results don't seem too bad

Roughly 1% death rate across whole population

0.18% death rate under 50 years old, the chance of dieing of anything in a year for under 50 years old is 0.16%.

You can buy them tests online for £69 ffs, why are we not doing a study in Dublin or something

https://www.babylonhealth.com/coronavirus/covid-19-antibody-test

Igotadose · 17-05-2020 11:27AM

Is contact tracing actually happening in Ireland? All I've seen is fumbles by the HSE in rolling out the infrastructure, which in my jaded view of being a long-time software dev, is inexcusable. 4.5 million people in the whole country, plenty of idle computer capacity around, this should've been up months ago with or without a phone app.

17-05-2020 11:29AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If you are in a vulnerable category you should definitely refrain from travel for a while after it restarts. However, otherwise healthy people should follow the guidance and if they feel like it go. Face mask on planes/ public transport, good hand hygiene and hygiene and physical distancing measures in the country you are visiting will likely minimise the potential of getting it. You will probably be just as likely to break a leg. Make sure you have enough spare cash to support yourself for a few weeks in quarantine abroad if you were to get it though. Unlikely to be covered by travel insurance for Covid unlike other injuries or illnesses

This is my thinking too. I’m not going to go anywhere that requires quarantine on the way out, and I am happy enough to quarantine when coming back to Ireland. And I would always travel with my laptop, in case I have to WFH abroad for a while if I can’t travel back for some reason, like failing a temperature check when boarding the returning flight. I’m happy enough to find a nice Airbnb and hunker down in Tuscany somewhere if it came to that

ek motor · 17-05-2020 11:29AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Increased by 18

Where did you hear this ?

biko · 17-05-2020 11:33AM

Healthcare workers in Belgium turns their back as PM arrives

https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1261933702931779584

Micky 32 · 17-05-2020 11:59AM

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

“in for a nasty shock” .

Are posters still using these terms? Like “ in for a rude awakening” . “ in for a shock” I have been hearing those stupid rediculous untrue qoutes from the begining.

biko · 17-05-2020 12:00PM

They are, and if you think it's gonna stop then you're in....

bekker · 17-05-2020 12:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

This is my thinking too. I’m not going to go anywhere that requires quarantine on the way out, and I am happy enough to quarantine when coming back to Ireland. And I would always travel with my laptop, in case I have to WFH abroad for a while if I can’t travel back for some reason, like failing a temperature check when boarding the returning flight. I’m happy enough to find a nice Airbnb and hunker down in Tuscany somewhere if it came to that

Will you be happy enough to pay for the totality of your care on your return if you pick it abroad, or do you expect the rest of us to pick up the tab for isolation or treatment?

To access the risk you'll be taking try getting an insurance quote to cover against the total cost of your COVID-19 care on return to Ireland.

You won't get insurance cover for isolation on return.

caveat emptor · 17-05-2020 12:09PM

Italy trying to get back to normal. I'm not sure this particular solution passes the sniff test. i.e if one farted could the other smell it. My guess is plexiglas does not stop that. Given that it can be transmitted by aerosol not just droplets etc I won't be sitting down to share a bottle of wine with a friend inside for some time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/how-will-we-ever-make-people-feel-at-home-again-ask-italy-fearful-trattorias-lockdown

Micky 32 · 17-05-2020 12:12PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

if one farted could the other smell it.

It’s a good job it doesn’t spread by farting ( well not that we know of) or we’d be all f****d ;-)

Do humans transmit aerosol though? I would have thought mostly droplets.

caveat emptor · 17-05-2020 12:15PM

This is why I've stopped reading the news etc. Sometimes ignorance is bliss. Going back to bliss now. Have a good Sunday.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1258818134959689734?s=20

Inquitus · 17-05-2020 12:23PM

This is not good, 5 sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt tested positive for Covid-19, then tested negative twice, each test 2 days apart from the last, and then retested positive again. Needs to be peer reviewed etc. but if confirmed this is definitely unhelpful!

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/16/coronavirus-sailors-test-positive-again-covid-uss-roosevelt/5206256002/

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/16/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-coronavirus-261873

Gregor Samsa · 17-05-2020 12:23PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Given that it can be transmitted by aerosol not just droplets etc I won't be sitting down to share a bottle of wine with a friend inside for some time.

Im not knocking your caution, but it has not actually been proven that it can spread via aerosol. It’s been shown that the virus’s RNA can be present in aerosol droplets, but there’s no proof that it’s transmissible this way.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-coronavirus-spreads-through-the-air-what-we-know-so-far1/

is_that_so · 17-05-2020 12:31PM

Inquitus wrote: »

This is not good, 5 sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt tested positive for Covid-19, then tested negative twice, each test 2 days apart from the last, and then retested positive again. Needs to be peer reviewed etc. but if confirmed this is definitely unhelpful!

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/16/coronavirus-sailors-test-positive-again-covid-uss-roosevelt/5206256002/

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/16/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-coronavirus-261873

It has been stongly suggested that this is more likely to be test issues.

17-05-2020 12:32PM

Mike3287 wrote: »

We should be doing those tests here

Those results don't seem too bad

Roughly 1% death rate across whole population

0.18% death rate under 50 years old, the chance of dieing of anything in a year for under 50 years old is 0.16%.

You can buy them tests online for £69 ffs, why are we not doing a study in Dublin or something

https://www.babylonhealth.com/coronavirus/covid-19-antibody-test

I think the online tests would have to be treated with a lot of scepticism. I believe the Spanish used laboratory testing but stand to be corrected

Gregor Samsa · 17-05-2020 12:33PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

This is why I've stopped reading the news etc. Sometimes ignorance is bliss. Going back to bliss now. Have a good Sunday.

Jaysus, It would either need to be some shot or some schlong to get getting in contact with semen with 2 meter social distancing.

Inquitus · 17-05-2020 12:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It has been stongly suggested that this is more likely to be test issues.

If they are using the Abbott test which is utterly unreliable, then it could well be a testing issue, we shall see, that said there is a big gap between the initial diagnosis and the recurrence!

Mike3287 · 17-05-2020 12:35PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the online tests would have to be treated with a lot of scepticism. I believe the Spanish used laboratory testing but stand to be corrected

True

These Abbot Roche tests are supposedly 99.8% accurate

nacho libre · 17-05-2020 12:35PM

bekker wrote: »

The Common Travel Area does not require us to exempt UK citizens from Irish quarantine requirements provided they also apply to Irish citizens coming back to the country (as they should).

.

I'm sure Leo pointed that out to Boris during the phone call. I will be plesantly surprised if UK citizens are not exempt from quarantining upon arrival here because i doubt Leo will be led by the science on this measure.

Paddygreen · 17-05-2020 12:35PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Italy trying to get back to normal. I'm not sure this particular solution passes the sniff test. i.e if one farted could the other smell it. My guess is plexiglas does not stop that. Given that it can be transmitted by aerosol not just droplets etc I won't be sitting down to share a bottle of wine with a friend inside for some time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/how-will-we-ever-make-people-feel-at-home-again-ask-italy-fearful-trattorias-lockdown

I will be asking my friends to wear masks in my presence. It is the reasonable price they will have to pay for my company. As for sharing a bottle of wine, not a hope unless someone else has paid for it.

New Home · 17-05-2020 12:36PM

jackboy wrote: »

No it would be a waste of tests as the result is not that meaningful. Better to use the resources for those who are newly sick.

AFAIK, they have to test negative twice in a row to be declared clear of the disease. Not sure if they do this only for hospitalised patients, though.

podgeandrodge · 17-05-2020 12:37PM

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

I contracted some kind of cold/flu...
I went out of my way to avoid people, wear gloves.
The only place I went for the past 2 months is to Tesco once a week - late in the evening when there's nobody there. No other face to face interaction with people other than that.
I hope it's not the coronavirus. If it is then this thing spreads by air.

Have a think about your username and consider things...

podgeandrodge · 17-05-2020 12:40PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Italy trying to get back to normal. I'm not sure this particular solution passes the sniff test. i.e if one farted could the other smell it. My guess is plexiglas does not stop that. Given that it can be transmitted by aerosol not just droplets etc I won't be sitting down to share a bottle of wine with a friend inside for some time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/how-will-we-ever-make-people-feel-at-home-again-ask-italy-fearful-trattorias-lockdown

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s a good job it doesn’t spread by farting ( well not that we know of) or we’d be all f****d ;-)

Do humans transmit aerosol though? I would have thought mostly droplets.

From what I gather it's a FACT about droplets. Aerosol has been shown in laboratory tests to transmit the virus (e.g. through breathing and particles hanging in the air), but those doing these tests have been clarifying that they don't know whether those small particles are sufficient to cause infection, even if the virus is contained in them. Droplets/infected surfaces are the main thing to worry about.

On that basis (assuming it is true), the Italian solution there seems quite reasonable as it will protect against direct sneeze/cough and minimise the risk.

I would gladly accept it as risk mitigation if it allowed me to the pub!

Deeper Blue · 17-05-2020 12:43PM

There are nearly 5 million confirmed cases worldwide so I'm assuming if people could be infected twice it would've happened to more than 2 people by now.

Also considering how much the media seem to fawn over these doomsday stories I'm certain we'd have heard about any suspected reinfections had they occured

podgeandrodge · 17-05-2020 12:44PM

owlbethere wrote: »

There was a piece on the journal.ie website. It was a poll asking people - when do you think you will travel again and it provided a few different options to pick from. The comment section was interesting. A lot of the comments sayikg they will go as soon as its allowed.

I was reading it thinking, it doesn't make sense to go away on holidays when the virus is circulating around many countries and populations still in case you pick up the virus on the way and get sick out abroad?

Deleted User wrote: »

If you are in a vulnerable category you should definitely refrain from travel for a while after it restarts. However, otherwise healthy people should follow the guidance and if they feel like it go. Face mask on planes/ public transport, good hand hygiene and hygiene and physical distancing measures in the country you are visiting will likely minimise the potential of getting it. You will probably be just as likely to break a leg. Make sure you have enough spare cash to support yourself for a few weeks in quarantine abroad if you were to get it though. Unlikely to be covered by travel insurance for Covid unlike other injuries or illnesses

I mentioned a while back that this is down to people's risk tolerances. A lot of people will say "I have to live my life" to an extent, this can't go on forever and you can never avoid the risk completely.

Others (presumably owlbethere included from what they say) have a much much higher aversion to risk.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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