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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Comments

  • #3782
    Ginger n Lemon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Stark wrote: »
    Article is somewhat ambiguous but I think they're referring to the full lockdown when they say Covid restrictions? We did have some lighter restrictions between early March and the full lockdown.

    Yes. The same light restrictions Sweden have of no public gatherings over 50 people, social distancing, wash hands.

    That has halved the R number in early March.

    That has also reduced the R number down to under 1.

    Lockdown was there just bankrupting businesses.


  • #3783
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Ginger n Lemon wrote: »
    Pay attention now ok? I dont want to be showing you how bad and false "models" really are.

    "The model stressed its own urgency as well. Sweden would have to adopt a lockdown policy similar to the rest of Europe immediately if it wished to avert catastrophe. As the authors explained, under “conservative” estimates using their model “the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June."

    https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

    Can we please stop acting like fools? The models we've been presented from the very start are not even 10% accurate. Lockdown or no lockdown.

    Remember this.

    Sweden has twice our ICU capacity and they already have a way higher death rate with a third of the testing so their numbers are under reported.

    You need to look at all countries and not just sweden. Every european country that implemented lockdown saw a significant drop in cases 2 weeks later (the incubation times for this virus) Are you saying that was coincidence in every single country where the pattern was repeated?


  • #3784
    crossman47
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭crossman47


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

    I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

    That misses the point completely. At 1.6 it was growing exponentionally. it had to be stopped in its tracks.


  • #3785
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Ginger n Lemon wrote: »
    Yesss, I was going to say that Leo Varadkar prediction of 15,000 cases by end of March WITH a lockdown in place was, erm, off. off? REALLY OFF.

    He hasnt recovered since.

    That prediction was if nothing was done except social distancing and the R number continued as it was.
    Off, Wayyy off...you are


  • #3786
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,621 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    jibber5000 wrote: »
    The modelling was predicting 15,000 cases by the end of March with a lockdown.

    They were all based on the imperial college London model which has been proven to be way off.

    Likewise a consultant from the HSE said on here that upto 150,000 people could die. To even suggest 3% of the population could have died seems laughable now but this is what was being told to us.

    After listening to guff like above its only natural that crutical thinking people are now questioning what the fcuk is going on and why are we the most restricted citizens in Europe?


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  • #3787
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    What evidence exists that restrictions work?

    Every single european country where cases dropped after lockdown?


  • #3788
    Ginger n Lemon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Sweden has twice our ICU capacity and they already have a way higher death rate with a third of the testing so their numbers are under reported.

    You need to look at all countries and not just sweden. Every european country that implemented lockdown saw a significant drop in cases 2 weeks later (the incubation times for this virus) Are you saying that was coincidence in every single country where the pattern was repeated?

    This is a load of rubbish. First you ask for a link. Once link is provided to you, you retreat to "you need to look at other countries not just Sweden".

    Idk why I am evening responding to you, you didnt know there is a US state Georgia. Well, you live and learn. Just like you live and you learn that the "models" are a load of ****e.


  • #3789
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Ginger n Lemon wrote: »
    This is a load of rubbish. First you ask for a link. Once link is provided to you, you retreat to "you need to look at other countries not just Sweden".

    Idk why I am evening responding to you, you didnt know there is a US state Georgia. Well, you live and learn. Just like you live and you learn that the "models" are a load of ****e.

    I think its reasonable to look a variety of countries including sweden to get a balanced view of what is happening. You are picking one single country and basing your position on that because it suits your own views.


  • #3790
    Ginger n Lemon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    That prediction was if nothing was done except social distancing and the R number continued as it was.
    Off, Wayyy off...you are

    Could you come again? I dont understand what you are trying to say.


  • #3791
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,621 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Every single european country where cases dropped after lockdown?

    As in Sweden?


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  • #3792
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,790 ✭✭✭Benimar


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

    I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

    There is an enormous difference between those two figures. At 0.6 cases decline and we are at Phase 5 in August. At 1.6 we would be locked down next week.

    Angela Merkel gave a good explanation of how it applied to Germany. How even a movement from 0.9 to 1.2 would have their Health System at full capacity next month.


  • #3793
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,621 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Jim Root wrote: »
    It was only a matter of time before joe public turned on the CMO

    In this case about 2 years ago


  • #3794
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Why all the posts about Georgia specifically. Do other places like Texas not deserve a shout out? Wonder why.


  • #3795
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    As in Sweden?

    So you think Italy and spain should have done nothing as their hospitals got overwhelmed? They should have just continued on as normal?


  • #3796
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    It was opened on April 30th. That is closer to 2 weeks. As we know from the earlier waves of Coronavirus the rates of infection and the periods of time it was ciruclating in countries before the spikes mean that we won't see the true impacts of reopening for around 3-4 weeks. The same way we came down after lockdown will be the same way we see things come up. I am not making a judegement on what will happen in Georgia just saying that your narrtive is the one here not really giving the full picture.

    Nope. It started to reopen before the 30th. Here is an article dated 24th April talking about how salons , gyms and more were open

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/us/georgia-coronavirus-reopening-businesses-friday/index.html


  • #3797
    Lyle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 224 ✭✭Lyle


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    When they give ICU beds as a metric , it is Covid patients they are talking about, not non Covid.

    I thought the metric is based on how many available beds there are altogether so we have more capacity in case there's another little surge in Covid cases needing ICU?

    In which case it kinda doesn't matter how many Covid cases are in there, it's about numbers overall and they're fairly steady even with falling numbers of Covid patients... Say 50 more Covid cases leave ICU next week, but 50 patients with other illnesses go in - what then? The same amount of beds are still occupied, and the same number are still available, the occupied ones are just full of varied patients rather than Covid.

    Open to correction and understanding on this though! I haven't been able to source anything concrete, this is just my interpretation of how the ICU metric works.
    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Testing randomly does not make things clearer as a negative result doesn't mean the patient is negative and not a risk, just not at the time of testing.

    Sorry, I wasn't specific enough there alright in my phrasing. They should study certain problem areas and do random or targeted testing within those problem areas where they see a broader pattern of high community transmission and infection. Just testing totally randomly would be pointless alright.


  • #3798
    jibber5000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 349 ✭✭jibber5000


    MadYaker wrote: »
    You have link that backs that up?

    We did our own modelling we didn't base it off the UK. Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group was what we based our plan off not the UK.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21313G

    Leo speaking when the lockdown was introduced.

    But we didn't construct a model ourselves. We were one of the other countries which followed Prof Ferguson's report.

    "Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policy making in the UK and other countries in the recent weeks".

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiQhODbibnpAhXMThUIHaT4ANAQFjAEegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd


  • #3799
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Ginger n Lemon wrote: »
    Could you come again? I dont understand what you are trying to say.

    She is making the point that the models didn't account for our lockdown, which they didn't the gov stated as much at the time. Ill see if i can find a link to that press conference.


  • #3800
    jibber5000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 349 ✭✭jibber5000


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    Why all the posts about Georgia specifically. Do other places like Texas not deserve a shout out? Wonder why.

    It does. As well as Florida which is doing really well. I was just referencing Georgia as an example which doesn't fit the lockdown narritive.


  • #3801
    MrDavid1976
    Closed Accounts Posts: 305 ✭✭MrDavid1976


    What is interesting is that we were killed pointing elsewhere on the lockdown, yet when we point at other S to open up quicker people say we are different.


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  • #3802
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

    I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

    If you remember cases were doubling every 2 to 3 days even at those lower levels, so many were infected in the community.
    More people infected , larger numbers, every 0.1 point increase is multiples of cases .
    You know this , right ?


  • #3803
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    jibber5000 wrote: »
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21313G

    Leo speaking when the lockdown was introduced.

    But we didn't construct a model ourselves. We were one of the other countries which followed Prof Ferguson's report.

    "Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policy making in the UK and other countries in the recent weeks".

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiQhODbibnpAhXMThUIHaT4ANAQFjAEegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd

    Thats for the UK? I see nothing in that article about modelling at all. Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group was responsible for constructing our models.

    As i understand it. Our models predicted 15,000 cases by the end of march which would have been a disaster as that rate of infection would have overwhelmed the ICUs. So we implemented a lockdown to push that peak out into April. Slow the spread right down so less people are presenting at hospital at the same time. And it seems to have worked. I agree we should open up a bit faster, but I think we got it pretty much right.


  • #3804
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    Nope. It started to reopen before the 30th. Here is an article dated 24th April talking about how salons , gyms and more were open

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/us/georgia-coronavirus-reopening-businesses-friday/index.html

    Well we should find out in a true sense how they are getting on in the next few weeks. I am glad that places like this are willing to be human guinea pigs for the rest of us.


  • #3805
    MrDavid1976
    Closed Accounts Posts: 305 ✭✭MrDavid1976


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    If you remember cases were doubling every 2 to 3 days even at those lower levels, so many were infected in the community.
    More people infected , larger numbers, every 0.1 point increase is multiples of cases .
    You know this , right ?


    I agree with you that the lockdown af the time was necessary

    Do you think the current plan to ease restrictions is correct? Is it too slow? Is it too long?

    Looking at where the evidence is now.


  • #3806
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    jibber5000 wrote: »
    It does. As well as Florida which is doing really well. I was just referencing Georgia as an example which doesn't fit the lockdown narritive.

    It does? Texas is currently experiencing growth in numbers and deaths? You understand the exponential growth in the virus that has been talked about to death, excuse the the awful pun. These things start off slowly and then explode when you aren't curbing the spread with extreme measure. While you have rising number of cases it seems the last thing you should be doing is lifting restrictions.


  • #3807
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,337 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    MrDavid1976 wrote: »
    I agree with you that the lockdown af the time was necessary

    Do you think the current plan to ease restrictions is correct? Is it too slow? Is it too long?

    Looking at where the evidence is now.

    I think its too slow. Hospitals are basically empty if the HSE are to be believed.


  • #3808
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Ginger n Lemon wrote: »
    Could you come again? I dont understand what you are trying to say.

    Maybe try reading your own post that I replied to , then you would get the context and the meaning 🙄


  • #3809
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    Why all the posts about Georgia specifically. Do other places like Texas not deserve a shout out? Wonder why.

    Lol

    We've heard a lot about NYC as well.

    South Dakota, without a lockdown, had an outbreak seven times less deadly than Illinois.

    If you think some State should be highlighted for its relevance, why not post about it yourself?


  • #3810
    Ginger n Lemon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    Well we should find out in a true sense how they are getting on in the next few weeks. I am glad that places like this are willing to be human guinea pigs for the rest of us.

    We are the only country on earth to shut down pubs, barbers and gyms for 5 months. We are the guinea pigs.


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  • #3811
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,858 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    growleaves wrote: »
    Kermit aren't you an FG supporter?

    Paschal Donohue warned of 300k to be out of work for years.

    I’m a FG voter and can see the madness clear as day. Donohoe isn’t strong enough at all, you need a Charlie Mccreevy type in there. He’s clearly muzzled by Leo, Simon and all the other “lives are more important “ virtue signallers.


This discussion has been closed.
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