Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings

ceadaoin. · 16-05-2020 01:06AM

deisedevil wrote: »

There's far less risk ordering from a warehouse than letting people loose in clothes and homewares shops etc. That's the whole point.

Less risk for you you mean.

Have they recommended masks yet? That will make things a whole lot safer and allow some normality to resume, when it comes to shops opening at least.

growleaves · 16-05-2020 01:07AM

deisedevil wrote: »

Yes and to my mind we weren't cautious enough at all and should have done more early on. People are banging on about Sweden. Who cares about Sweden, how about the countries that put in extreme restrictions as early as possible. Just look at what Taiwan did. Up on top of China and have a look at their response and results. That's what I would have wanted for this country.

I see. Yes I think Taiwan was an interesting case study of success.

People forget or don't realise that there are historical precedents for dealing with pandemics. Taiwan did what countries have done for over 1000 years - shut borders, quarantine the sick and other measures.

We kept our borders open, sent the sick to mingle in nursing homes and went with a bunch of new, made-up containment measures which are defended now as if they are deeply-held religious convictions.

Positivism and science-worship mean people look to studies from 5 minutes ago (in historical time) for guidance, as if we're starting from a baseline of ignorance.

I thought the way in which the Oxford University's Infectious Diseases Lab report was rubbished by the media, and how that was lapped up by the mass of people, showed the commitment to "science" is superficial anyway.

Then also the blithe acceptance of dodgy statistics, followed by the claim that "models aren't even supposed to be accurate" (false)

deisedevil · 16-05-2020 01:10AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Less risk for you you mean.

Have they recommended masks yet? That will make things a whole lot safer and allow some normality to resume, when it comes to shops opening at least.

Nope. Far less risk for more than just me. Have another think about it. It's an easy one to figure out. You'll get there.

Iamabeliever · 16-05-2020 01:11AM

deisedevil wrote: »

Your going to die without homewares and the like are you? Do you understand what the word need really means? We need air, we need water, we need food. We don't need Tupperware boxes and pillow covers.

Pretty sure you won't live or die without construction

deisedevil · 16-05-2020 01:14AM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Pretty sure you won't live or die without construction

Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean?

Speakerboxx · 16-05-2020 01:15AM

Surely we can get rid of Tony after Monday?

16-05-2020 01:15AM

wakka12 wrote: »

It's not my logic , it's what several studies determined . Population continued to grow throughout the Great Recession in the USA where the study is mostly focused on so I don't see how emigration (which had no net loss effect )would lower it unless a sick person is more likely to emigrate for some unknown reason. So yes it drops, as I said it can now be omitted from the scare mongering tactics as it is untrue

My point was that the recession will kill more people in Ireland than Covid has. Covid has currently killed 1500 in Ireland. A recession will very easily surpass that.

The studies that you are referring to are comparing a country in good times and a country in bad times. (Not just focusing on any 1 illness)

Of course it’s possible that less people would die during a recession as a result of less people working. That leads to less road deaths, less workplace accidents etc. Also, population tends to increase in countries in good time’s. A higher population will naturally mean more deaths. People leave countries during recession, which leads to less deaths. It’s extremely flawed logic to try take anything away from that.

Overall, richer countries have higher life expectancy. So it’s better to avoid recession.

Either way, none of it is relevant to my point. The recession will easily kill more than 1500 in Ireland.

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 01:16AM

deisedevil wrote: »

There's far less risk ordering from a warehouse than letting people loose in clothes and homewares shops etc. That's the whole point.

Inactivity is dangerous

deisedevil · 16-05-2020 01:21AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Inactivity is dangerous

I'm very fit and active. No danger there.

deisedevil · 16-05-2020 01:22AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

My point was that the recession will kill more people in Ireland than Covid has. Covid has currently killed 1500 in Ireland. A recession will very easily surpass that.

The studies that you are referring to are comparing a country in good times and a country in bad times. (Not just focusing on any 1 illness)

Of course it’s possible that less people would die during a recession as a result of less people working. That leads to less road deaths, less workplace accidents etc. Also, population tends to increase in countries in good time’s. A higher population will naturally mean more deaths. People leave countries during recession, which leads to less deaths. It’s extremely flawed logic to try take anything away from that.

Overall, richer countries have higher life expectancy. So it’s better to avoid recession.

Either way, none of it is relevant to my point. The recession will easily kill more than 1500 in Ireland.

Was there a greater spike in deaths during the last recession than in these these times with Covid? That would be interesting.

wakka12 · 16-05-2020 01:27AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

My point was that the recession will kill more people in Ireland than Covid has. Covid has currently killed 1500 in Ireland. A recession will very easily surpass that.

The studies that you are referring to are comparing a country in good times and a country in bad times. (Not just focusing on any 1 illness)

Of course it’s possible that less people would die during a recession as a result of less people working. That leads to less road deaths, less workplace accidents etc. Also, population tends to increase in countries in good time’s. A higher population will naturally mean more deaths. People leave countries during recession, which leads to less deaths. It’s extremely flawed logic to try take anything away from that.

Overall, richer countries have higher life expectancy. So it’s better to avoid recession.

Either way, none of it is relevant to my point. The recession will easily kill more than 1500 in Ireland.

Good god , covid has caused increased excess mortality. Recessions cause a reduction in excess mortality. How they die or what causes it is irrelevant as your point is that a recession will lead to more deaths than covid will, which is not true

Iamabeliever · 16-05-2020 01:38AM

deisedevil wrote: »

Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean?

Construction is non essential. It can involve lads travelling from all parts of the country to site and then travelling back home. A person may travel from Cavan/Monaghan to Dublin and back etc.

So if you have a problem with non essential retail, you really should have a problem with non essential construction.

deisedevil · 16-05-2020 01:42AM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Construction is non essential. It can involve lads travelling from all parts of the country to site and then travelling back home. A person may travel from Cavan/Monaghan to Dublin and back etc.

So if you have a problem with non essential retail, you really should have a problem with non essential construction.

I do.

Iamabeliever · 16-05-2020 01:45AM

deisedevil wrote: »

I do.

Alrighty then

2smiggy · 16-05-2020 02:30AM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Construction is non essential. It can involve lads travelling from all parts of the country to site and then travelling back home. A person may travel from Cavan/Monaghan to Dublin and back etc.

So if you have a problem with non essential retail, you really should have a problem with non essential construction.

Your dead right, open up the curtain shops first. People need their curtains

Tell me how · 16-05-2020 02:36AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There is no science behind lockdowns, wearing masks outside of hospitals or making airplanes fly with empty middle seats.

Theres a lot of science behind washing your hands.

We are the country who are experimenting with our kids mental health and social abilities, and educational prospects too. We are damaging our kids. Unfortunately. And as Leo said, it will look pretty bad if we are the last country to get our kids back to school.

We need to change and fix things much faster than 21st of July or 10th of August.

Apart form the 30 or 40 scientifically qualified members of NPHET.

Iamabeliever · 16-05-2020 03:12AM

2smiggy wrote: »

Your dead right, open up the curtain shops first. People need their curtains

I'm not a fan of curtains personally but I won't judge anyone who is.

Quantum Erasure · 16-05-2020 03:13AM

2smiggy wrote: »

Your dead right, open up the curtain shops first. People need their curtains

*twitch*

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 03:19AM

SusieBlue wrote: »

If this is directed at me I never said that chemotherapy was cancelled, I said testing and screenings for various different cancers was cancelled.
Which it is and has been for the last 2 months.

I understand why transplants aren’t going ahead but I would have thought it was reasonable to assume some sort of plan could have been put in place over the last 2 months to find a solution to performing transplants going forward.
This isn’t forthcoming. Covid-19 isn’t going anywhere but neither is the need for this surgery.

Many people, not just here, are reporting difficulties scheduling appointments & surgeries because they are deemed not to be urgent enough.
You can keep insisting that it’s going ahead as normal but that isn’t reflective of what’s being posted here and elsewhere online.
This can’t be ignored and really isn’t acceptable going forward.

If you are going to accuse people of not sticking to the facts you should hold yourself to the same standard and stick to them too.

I’m going to ignore the Trump remark because it was beyond idiotic and a cheap shot.

In answer to your remarks to me earlier.
Calling my post infantile is beyond idiotic and a cheap shot ..not nice when you hear that back , is it?

You can't see anything except your own POV.

Yes elective surgery and routine screening is cancelled . Nothing that might put hospital staff or patients at risk is going ahead at present , and that risk is being weighed up by someone above our pay grade , all the time.

Cancer treatment eg chemotherapy for some patients ongoing. As for transplants , it would be extremely foolhardy to further weaken an already immunocompromised patient to do surgery at this time.
Elective Surgery is cancelled as asymptomatic patients have been shown to have very poor outcomes if they are exposed to Covid either during or post OP, and no rational surgeon wants to risk that .
That is why some illnesses are treated while others are being left to wait. In an IDEAL world this would not be the case and no healthcare professional wants to hear that people are not getting their long awaited surgery, but there is no choice at present .

This disease is not wreaking havoc or killing excessive numbers of younger people because it is being suppressed . That is why the restrictions will not be lifted to allow routine procedures and outpatients appointments to go ahead.

I don't say that hospitals are mad busy but that the workload is very onerous in the present situation.
And nobody has any idea how long this will go on for or when things will return to normal.
Staff are having to take leave so that everyone isn't wrecked , and to mind children . They are also restricted in rotating staff so each area can work without needing relief or agency .
I never said that this has not had an effect on other illnesses , but in the circumstances , which are unlike anything experienced in living memory , I think the vast majority of people are understanding .
So when do you think it would be a good time to lift all the restrictions in hospitals so that very I'll and vulnerable people can be treated ? You say it would be nice to know that this is being planned for ...wow, why didn't we think of doing that? Must send a mail straight to Tony to tell him to do that :0

Call your GP about your test , please . Maybe he will explain it to you if you don't take my word for it. If you are symptomatic or urgent it will be done .

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 03:38AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Do all these idiots not realise that the lockdown is the reason we didn't see scenes like Italy and Spain? Has everyone just forgot what happened there?

This !

MadYaker · 16-05-2020 03:42AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Sweden havent seen 200k dead.

It was predictions like so that caused restrictions to be implemented in Ireland. That was the justification

Exactly. The modelling predicted a worse case scenario which we then avoided with the lockdown measures we took. Just because the worst case scenario didn’t happen doesn’t mean the modelling was wrong. Those predictions were based on what would happen if we made no attempts to curtail the virus.

Why do you think case numbers in Italy and Spain dropped drastically? What actions did they take that made the numbers drop? It wasn’t olive oil and sunshine.

Our “lockdown” was nothing compared to theirs. In Madrid and Paris for almost 2 months people were allowed to leave their houses once a week to go shopping and that was it. No kids allowed out, outdoor exercise banned, police and army on the streets stopping everyone 24/7. A lot of people in this thread need to grow up.

pjohnson · 16-05-2020 07:08AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Exactly. The modelling predicted a worse case scenario which we then avoided with the lockdown measures we took. Just because the worst case scenario didn’t happen doesn’t mean the modelling was wrong. Those predictions were based on what would happen if we made no attempts to curtail the virus.

Why do you think case numbers in Italy and Spain dropped drastically? What actions did they take that made the numbers drop? It wasn’t olive oil and sunshine.

Our “lockdown” was nothing compared to theirs. In Madrid and Paris for almost 2 months people were allowed to leave their houses once a week to go shopping and that was it. No kids allowed out, outdoor exercise banned, police and army on the streets stopping everyone 24/7. A lot of people in this thread need to grow up.

Sure they bleat about how Ireland had "the most restrictive lockdown in th world". The regulars in this thread have whipped themselves into a frenzy detached from any reality!

uli84 · 16-05-2020 07:41AM

Sure not a big deal, Covid-19 crisis sees day case waiting list grow by 19,000, probably will add just 2 years to the usual waiting times but hey I am ever so grateful I could walk for 2 km during the lockdown while in Madrid they had to stay home for 2 months

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/covid-19-crisis-sees-day-case-waiting-list-grow-by-19000-999902.html

Heckler · 16-05-2020 08:13AM

I travel 15 km to and from work as I am considered an essential worker. Social distancing has become very very lax where i am.

My mother is 87. Staying with my sister. I called over and had a coffee over a kitchen table. Irresponsible to many maybe. I'm not going to go 10 weeks without seeing my loved ones. And before you start Kermit piss off.

16-05-2020 08:15AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Good god , covid has caused increased excess mortality. Recessions cause a reduction in excess mortality. How they die or what causes it is irrelevant as your point is that a recession will lead to more deaths than covid will, which is not true

I think you’re getting a bit confused. I never once said the overall morality rate of the entire country would increase. I said the recession would kill more people than Covid did. Covid has currently killed just over 1500 in Ireland.

Also, we don’t have any long term data to suggest Covid is causing excess morality. Less people are dying on the roads and in work accidents right now. You’d have to do a study over a couple of months to see whether those 1500 deaths had much impact at all on the morality rate.

Just as an aside, I work with figures all day. If my company loses our top 2 customers, there are actually a bunch of metrics and KPIs that would improve as a result. Of course, we’d have lost our 2 highest income streams. I take it you get the point.

lord quackinton · 16-05-2020 08:27AM

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0516/1138761-coronavirus-children-warning/

Nobody puts Tony in a corner
He ain’t going away you know

16-05-2020 08:30AM

I can’t believe we actually still have people on this thread trying to justify keeping restrictions in place for another 3 months if not more.

We were told the reinfection rate should be less than one. It’s currently between 0.4 and 0.6. Hospitals are lying empty as we speak!!!

ICU is below 20% of the capacity we have. Countries all over Europe are getting back to normality.

There is no vaccine for the foreseeable future. What’s the plan here? Even if we get the numbers down to 0 and ban all air travel, somebody can still come down from the north and spread it.

We need to learn how to live with the virus, but our leaders are terrified. They heard some rumours that there would be queues at IKEA so they forced all homeware stores to remain closed.

I’m genuinely concerned about what criteria needs to be met to move into each phase. Even more concerned about how we’re going to pay back the 30 billion

Podge201 · 16-05-2020 08:35AM

Get the 30 billion from China.

daithi7 · 16-05-2020 08:56AM

SusieBlue wrote: »

The coronavirus ward in CUH is now closed.
3 patients were discharged today and 1 patient was transferred to another hospital in another county.
No new covid-19 admissions and no new cases confirmed in the hospital in the last 24 hours.

That’s not to say there won’t be more admissions next week etc (before anyone goes off on me), but as of now the ward is empty. No patients for the first time since March. How much lower do the numbers need to go?

I remember thinking a few weeks ago that it was starting to feel like we were sacrificing one section of society for another, and how it should be a bit more equal.
That we were all important.
Now it feels like we’re sacrificing the lives and futures of 99% of the population, for a very small minority & subsection of society.
The vast majority many for the very few. And no end whatsoever in sight.

Thanks for this info Susie,

This is the elephant in the room if you ask me. Because of the threat of covid 19 Ireland are now effectively ignoring the health needs of the general population & this will cost lives (&quality of lives).

With so few cases this is obviously dumb.

P.s. not to mind continuing with thr drastic economy wrecking, job losing, GDP lowering, business banishing, welfare affecting lockdown measures, that Nphet have got so attached to and like mandating for us....

Nickindublin · 16-05-2020 08:59AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I can’t believe we actually still have people on this thread trying to justify keeping restrictions in place for another 3 months if not more.

We were told the reinfection rate should be less than one. It’s currently between 0.4 and 0.6. Hospitals are lying empty as we speak!!!

ICU is below 20% of the capacity we have. Countries all over Europe are getting back to normality.

There is no vaccine for the foreseeable future. What’s the plan here? Even if we get the numbers down to 0 and ban all air travel, somebody can still come down from the north and spread it.

We need to learn how to live with the virus, but our leaders are terrified. They heard some rumours that there would be queues at IKEA so they forced all homeware stores to remain closed.

I’m genuinely concerned about what criteria needs to be met to move into each phase. Even more concerned about how we’re going to pay back the 30 billion

The goal posts are being changed all the time.

We need to be moving from lock down faster. Should be out of it fully by June 29. Italy travel restrictions gone on June 3rd. We will still be restricted upto August/Sept.

It seems this is going to now have to be paid for. Paschal started out we can do this for 18 months etc. Money is no problem etc. Not saying that now. Looks like a 30billion or more hole this year.

All I am hearing is of business not re opening. Restaurants Pubs Coffee Shops Hairdressers etc.

Met a friend yesterday who works in finance for a social distance coffee. He frightened me. He said whats coming we have not seen yet and its not good. He can see it in his position. Basically was saying people still have money. But business are running out of it and once the gov cant pay the extra money people will start running out. Said the amount of restructuring of mortgages/loans is massive. People he is talking to in the industry cant believe whats going on re the economy. Its like the government thinks this is going to bounce back. There are some saying we could end up with 800000 on social at end of year and that this will make the last crash a blip.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings