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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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Comments

  • #2972
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    is_that_so wrote: »
    There's a Nobel prizewinner in Chemistry who's modelling this thing. He's been right about as much as he's been wrong. One thing we have seen from "experts" is how massively inflated their egos are and some of them have very loose tongues and oodles of opinions, regardless of what expertise they actually have.

    Well she put her reputation on the line, by taking responsibility for what her advice is.


  • #2973
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Onesea wrote: »
    And why shouldn't they. The dpp won't stand a chance in following through with any prosecutions brought forward from these rules.

    Stay at home by all means, but nobody should be forced to.

    Nice to see you avoiding the questions that I asked earlier says alot.


  • #2974
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    Nice to see you avoiding the questions that I asked earlier says alot.

    What question?

    Does anyone know any of the people on the covid 19 board advising the government. I think Allan Kelly brought the issue up in the dail a week or two ago


  • #2975
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,708 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Onesea wrote: »
    The predictions not going anywhere near what they expected. The models used to create these graphs is being ridiculed.. It honestly fells like most users here don't have access to the internet except this website

    Jesus wept. :rolleyes:

    The worst case scenario's didn't come to pass because precautions were taken to try an limit the damage that the virus would cause. Most of Europe is in semi lockdown. If that hadn't had happened, we'd be in a much worse state than we are.

    OTOH, take a look at America, where their half-assed attempts to tackle the virus has led to 81 and half thousand dead and 1.3m infected. This was after being told that they could expect just 60,000 by the middle of the Summer, before the virus magically went away.

    And that number is probably much lower than the real figure.

    Or Britain, who has the worst death toll in Europe, because they dragged their heels at the beginning. And their toll is off as well, because they weren't even counting nursing home deaths in an attempt to save face.

    This thing is very serious. You'd need to have bucket on your fucking head to think otherwise.


  • #2976
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    Onesea wrote: »
    Well then explain to me why the models were so wrong for Sweden.

    In what way were they wrong? Sweden has 3 time the ICU admissions per capita compared to Ireland.


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  • #2977
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,015 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    In what way were they wrong? Sweden has 3 time the ICU admissions per capita compared to Ireland.

    And ahead of its Scandanavian neighbours aswell.

    Yet apparently Sweden did good!


  • #2978
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    Tony EH wrote: »
    Jesus wept. :rolleyes:

    The worst case scenario's didn't come to pass because precautions were taken to try an limit the damage that the virus would cause. Most of Europe is in semi lockdown. If that hadn't had happened, we'd be in a much worse state than we are.

    OTOH, take a look at America, where their half-assed attempts to tackle the virus has led to 81 and half thousand dead and 1.3m infected. This was after being told that they could expect just 60,000 by the middle of the Summer, before the virus magically went away.

    And that number is probably much lower than the real figure.

    Or Britain, who has the worst death toll in Europe, because they dragged their heels at the beginning. And their toll is off as well, because they weren't even counting nursing home deaths in an attempt to save face.

    This thing is very serious. You'd need to have bucket on your fucking head to think otherwise.

    Then why are they closing so many hospitals across the UK. The vast majority of the dead are very old and already ill, a normal flu would be enough to kill them.
    They are labeling people without inspection of having covid 19.normal flu? Where has that been..


  • #2979
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    growleaves wrote: »
    I've never heard of that party before. But like I said political belief doesn't affect scientific work itself. Members of NPHET could belong to fringe political movements.

    Political and personal beliefs most certainly affects scientific work for some people, as can be seen by the rise in deaths from measles by gullible people who follow advice from social media.


  • #2980
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Onesea wrote: »
    Well she put her reputation on the line, by taking responsibility for what her advice is.
    A lot of people have "put their reputation on the line". Learning new things about the virus gives them an out by pointing to things we didn't know and there's plenty of that to come.


  • #2981
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Onesea wrote: »
    What question?

    Does anyone know any of the people on the covid 19 board advising the government. I think Allan Kelly brought the issue up in the dail a week or two ago

    I'll ask them again then

    Who exactly is ridiculing the data, and do they believe that they aren't based on no restrictions being put in place?

    Is it this Q group you were harping on about earlier?

    Has your expert been infected with covid19 and recovered as certified by a medical doctor and what steps are they going to take to be infected if not and then prove that they can't be reinfected?

    Will be checking later as I'm off out for a few hours.


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  • #2982
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    And ahead of its Scandanavian neighbours aswell.

    Yet apparently Sweden did good!

    The poster who wrote to you asked about Sweden re the original models, not re Scandanavian neighbours.*

    The original models predicted 40,000 dead or more for Sweden. Yet 40,000+ Swedes have not died.

    (*The models were not comparative analyses between Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. Don't know where that came from, its a "talking point")


  • #2983
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    I'll ask them again then

    Who exactly is ridiculing the data, and do they believe that they aren't based on no restrictions being put in place?

    Is it this Q group you were harping on about earlier?

    Has your expert been infected with covid19 and recovered as certified by a medical doctor and what steps are they going to take to be infected if not and then prove that they can't be reinfected?

    Who is advising the Irish government? There are over 40 people unelected advising an unelected government..The whole country is under house arrest but for only a few deaths per day.


  • #2984
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    Society will not adapt to this new normal.


  • #2985
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    Onesea wrote: »
    Who is advising the Irish government? There are over 40 people unelected advising an unelected government..The whole country is under house arrest but for only a few deaths per day.

    Why don't you answer the questions posed?


  • #2986
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    MipMap wrote: »
    Back in 2008-2010 you had "Eminent" and "Nobel winning Economists" talking total sh1te also.
    Well certain disciplines are more about the academics of a subject rather than the practical and too often are seen and claim to be able to divine the future. And they can't. Economists are most certainly in that group. Pretty much anyone or group that lay any claim to projecting the future involving human dynamics are the modern equivalent of crystal ball gazing and the more fancy their methods and the more impressive their bar charts the more utter bollocks they tend to be peddling. But since humans have always had a deep need to try and predict the future* they find an audience and often a lucrative one.

    With this dose we're still in the dark to a great extent and we're building the car as we're trying to drive it down a road not mapped. What we can be sure of is that at least one sacred cow "fact" about this we widely believe now will prove to be wrong. Hopefully not disastrously.




    *I've mused that maybe this all comes from our deep history when we were hunter gatherers? That when we noticed annual patterns in food supply the guy or gal who spotted the the buffalo always come in big numbers when the grass grows long and green and wrapped it in spiritual clothes, were the guy or gal who got power and more grub for themselves. If the buffalo were late they could blame some god or other, or more usually the people. Today we get life coaches, economists and powerpoint projections in middle management meetings.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #2987
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    growleaves wrote: »
    The poster who wrote to you asked about Sweden re the original models, not re Scandanavian neighbours.*

    The original models predicted 40,000 dead or more for Sweden. Yet 40,000+ Swedes have not died.

    (*The models were not comparative analyses between Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. Don't know where that came from, its a "talking point")

    Original models were based on a steady 33% daily increase, the very worst case scenario. They served as a spur for control measures but they are no good for any data analysis as actions made them almost instantly redundant.


  • #2988
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    growleaves wrote: »
    The poster who wrote to you asked about Sweden re the original models, not re Scandanavian neighbours.*

    The original models predicted 40,000 dead or more for Sweden. Yet 40,000+ Swedes have not died.

    (*The models were not comparative analyses between Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. Don't know where that came from, its a "talking point")

    Yet


  • #2989
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Yet

    As I've said before, to take the worst second wave of a disease in history (Spanish flu) as normative defies sense. The unique confluence of factors leading to a nightmare scenario are just about possible, that doesn't make them likely. Proceeding on the basis of extremely-unlikely-but-not-impossible scare scenarios is stupid, insane and (where it affects people badly) wrong.


  • #2990
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Onesea wrote: »
    The vast majority of the dead are very old and already ill, a normal flu would be enough to kill them.

    You are partly correct that the normal flu would probably kill them BUT Covid is far more CONTAGIOUS. That’s the difference and it makes Covid far more deadly.


  • #2991
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,717 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    You are partly correct that the normal flu would probably kill them BUT Covid is far more CONTAGIOUS. That’s the difference and it makes Covid far more deadly.

    is it ?

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



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  • #2992
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,708 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Onesea wrote: »
    Then why are they closing so many hospitals across the UK. The vast majority of the dead are very old and already ill, a normal flu would be enough to kill them.
    They are labeling people without inspection of having covid 19.normal flu? Where has that been..

    So, if there's nothing to be worried about and this thing is so mild, why are all the restrictions being put in place.

    Go on, thrill us all with your theory. :rolleyes:


  • #2993
    El Weirdo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,647 ✭✭✭✭El Weirdo


    Tony EH wrote: »
    So, if there's nothing to be worried about and this thing is so mild, why are all the restrictions being put in place.

    Go on, thrill us all with your theory. :rolleyes:
    Something... something... Bill Gates... chemtrails... Reptilian masters... mandatory vaccines... mind-control microchips... Soros... 5G... something.


  • #2994
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Onesea wrote: »
    Then why are they closing so many hospitals across the UK. The vast majority of the dead are very old and already ill, a normal flu would be enough to kill them.
    They are labeling people without inspection of having covid 19.normal flu? Where has that been..

    If you are referring to the Nightingale field hospitals they are not needed other than as a stand by measure due to even the UK flattening the curve.

    You really belong in the case of person who thinks (to quote myself)
    It turns out that by doing the right thing not enough people died to make it worth doing the right thing.


  • #2995
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    You are partly correct that the normal flu would probably kill them BUT Covid is far more CONTAGIOUS. That’s the difference and it makes Covid far more deadly.


    Is it?


  • #2996
    Plasandrunt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 858 ✭✭✭Plasandrunt


    Anybody know what date a shop like Argos is due to re-open?


  • #2997
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Tony EH wrote: »
    So, if there's nothing to be worried about and this thing is so mild, why are all the restrictions being put in place.

    The reasoning here is circular:

    Putting restrictions in place shows the deadliness of the illness because if it wasn't deadly restrictions wouldn't have been put in place.


  • #2998
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    ednwireland wrote: »
    is it ?

    Yes it is.


  • #2999
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    growleaves wrote: »
    As I've said before, to take the worst second wave of a disease in history (Spanish flu) as normative defies sense. The unique confluence of factors leading to a nightmare scenario are just about possible, that doesn't make them likely. Proceeding on the basis of extremely-unlikely-but-not-impossible scare scenarios is stupid, insane and (where it affects people badly) wrong.

    If 60% is needed for "herd immunity", 40,000 is plausible over time given the range of anti body testing is providing a 0.25% to 1% overall fatality rate with no study as yet providing a definitive peer reviewed rate. Given Sweden have significant social distancing in place the fact that it is slower is not a surprise. And given the medium economic impact on Sweden is not estimated to be any lower than its neighbours, the advantage in not locking down is not immediately apparent


  • #3000
    CoronaBlocker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 247 ✭✭CoronaBlocker


    There's a lot of tension in the air here today lads.

    I think everyone is here because they care. Of course people have different ideas on how things may help and how things have gone - some right, some wrong. But there are usually always degrees of grey in there too.

    I've really enjoyed these threads - I've learned huge amounts over this period from all of you here on Boards and give huge credit to you all for helping me (and no doubt many, many others) to keep my sanity through the last couple of months - but let's not pull all that apart at the seams now.

    Civility is key in good debate. Otherwise the exercise is pointless and we may all go home... if you're not already home, that is.

    This message was brought to you by someone that admires you all.


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  • #3001
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Onesea wrote: »
    Who is advising the Irish government? There are over 40 people unelected advising an unelected government..The whole country is under house arrest but for only a few deaths per day.

    Who would you prefer advise the government? And the government is appointed by the dail, who are elected by the people. If the Dail has not as yet managed to appoint a new government, the current government is the constitutionally legal government


This discussion has been closed.
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