Relaxation of restrictions Part II

07-05-2020 12:51PM

Does anybody else agree that lockdown will kill more people than we are "saving"?

First of all, I'm not sure how much we are realistically saving anyways. I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people dying from Covid are already fairly close to death anyways. People in nursing homes and elderly with multiple issues such as heart disease, diabetes. Maybe I'm heartless for thinking it and saying it, but there is only so much we can do to protect people at an advanced age with multiple illnesses. And all the stats are pointing in that direction. Over 90% dead are over 65. A lot of those already had cancer, diabetes, heart disease, COPD etc. Over 60% deaths are nursing homes.

As a result of this lockdown, lots and lots of medical check ups, procedures and treatments have been cancelled. God knows how many of those will result in deaths. Undetected cancer, untreated cancer etc. This could be young people that could have been saved for the longer term.

We also now have over 1M people on the dole. This number is still rising. With Tony suggesting that lockdown could be extended again, that number might rise even further. Completely unsustainable. The recession is going to be huge. And thousands will die either directly or indirectly as a result. And that is just touching the surface. Funds will be cut for just about everything. Homeless crisis will escalate. People will lose their homes, jobs and many other things.

The best course of action is to get the nursing homes under control and cocoon the elders. Everyone else must start living again.
If the numbers increase, we need to make peace with that. Its better for us in the long term.

While we are sitting at home, bored out of our minds, its hard to understand that we are killing thousands of people in the years ahead, but its exactly what we are doing.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:52PM

gozunda wrote: »

Ahh I see - you are an antivaxer. Thanks for that little nugget. It explains a lot imo.

Yeah, thankfully EU commission is as well. Its a good thing we are governed by tempered reasonable, intelligent people.

Imagine if we were governed by people who said "ohh you are suffering? Pffft, older generations suffered much more than you, get a grip" :pac:

"
The text of the resolution just passed by a sufficient number in the Council of Europe Parliament says among other things, "In order to promote their patented drugs and vaccines against flu, pharmaceutical companies influenced scientists and official agencies, responsible for public health standards to alarm governments worldwide and make them squander tight health resources for inefficient vaccine strategies and needlessly expose millions of healthy people to the risk of an unknown amount of side-effects of insufficiently tested vaccines. The "bird-flu"-campaign (2005/06) combined with the "swine-flu"-campaign seem to have caused a great deal of damage not only to some vaccinated patients and to public health-budgets, but to the credibility and accountability of important international health-agencies."

NetChat101 · 07-05-2020 12:55PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

newstalk just now

"A third of people arriving into Dublin Airport do not provide any details of where they will be self isolating"

You want to keep covid19 cases to as low as possible? Its time to smell the coffee

Have to say I'm almost in tears with frustration reading this. Our house has been in lockdown effectively since 13 March. We have done absolutely everything asked of us, and tried to keep smiling and positive for the kid's sake, but have to say we're finding this week hard. Then to read this has finished me off completely.

How can they expect people to keep going and (the majority) doing the right thing, when they allow this to happen?

easypazz · 07-05-2020 12:55PM

seamus wrote: »

Uber doesn't operate in Ireland, they are completely unaffected by our lockdown, this is down to global conditions.

As is the case with the last recession, there is actually very little we can do locally to protect jobs because we're massively vulnerable to international conditions.

Removing the lockdown right now would bring back a load of workers in the short-term, but there'd be a secondary wave of job losses as multinational companies permanently scale down their workforces.

That's not the point, Uber is just another 150 people potentially searching in a depleted pool of jobs available after this.

Aircraft hangers who service foreign aircraft are another example of a company who will also be potentially laying off people, even though the airline does not operate here.

There will be many more jobs lost, outside of our local situation, making the situation worse.

The sooner we restart the more business we save and the smaller the hole we need to dig ourselves out of.

NetChat101 · 07-05-2020 12:57PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

You can still support local restaurants. Plenty of them are open for collection or delivery. Even some pubs are doing takeaway pints. There's nothing stopping people from supporting them.

Didn't think pubs were allowed do take away pints?

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 01:00PM

NetChat101 wrote: »

Didn't think pubs were allowed do take away pints?

There was a video of a pub owner, who had a mobile pub in the back of a car via two kegs. Very Irish approach!

Balf · 07-05-2020 01:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Does anybody else agree that lockdown will kill more people than we are "saving"?

I suspect it, but I don't know it.

Deleted User wrote: »

While we are sitting at home, bored out of our minds, its hard to understand that we are killing thousands of people in the years ahead, but its exactly what we are doing.

The consequences are consistently downplayed. Of the five tests that Leo set out for relaxing measures, four are entirely to do with Covid. The last of the five is something like "other morbidities". That is meant to catch all of the other costs - from increased deaths from treatments postponed for other ailments, children at risk, mental health, hugely constrained resources in future years, etc.

The only point to bear in mind is this has been a global phenomenon. As someone said on either this or a similar thread, if Ryanair tried to fly as normal, where would they go?

But, yeah, big question worth asking. Because nobody, and certainly no-one in the WHO, assessed the economic consequences. They just hit the pandemic button, and Thunderbirds were go.

Paddygreen · 07-05-2020 01:02PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does anybody else agree that lockdown will kill more people than we are "saving"?

First of all, I'm not sure how much we are realistically saving anyways. I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people dying from Covid are already fairly close to death anyways. People in nursing homes and elderly with multiple issues such as heart disease, diabetes. Maybe I'm heartless for thinking it and saying it, but there is only so much we can do to protect people at an advanced age with multiple illnesses. And all the stats are pointing in that direction. Over 90% dead are over 65. A lot of those already had cancer, diabetes, heart disease, COPD etc. Over 60% deaths are nursing homes.

As a result of this lockdown, lots and lots of medical check ups, procedures and treatments have been cancelled. God knows how many of those will result in deaths. Undetected cancer, untreated cancer etc. This could be young people that could have been saved for the longer term.

We also now have over 1M people on the dole. This number is still rising. With Tony suggesting that lockdown could be extended again, that number might rise even further. Completely unsustainable. The recession is going to be huge. And thousands will die either directly or indirectly as a result. And that is just touching the surface. Funds will be cut for just about everything. Homeless crisis will escalate. People will lose their homes, jobs and many other things.

The best course of action is to get the nursing homes under control and cocoon the elders. Everyone else must start living again.
If the numbers increase, we need to make peace with that. Its better for us in the long term.

While we are sitting at home, bored out of our minds, its hard to understand that we are killing thousands of people in the years ahead, but its exactly what we are doing.

This is totally not the expert consensus. Simon Harris is surrounded by at least thirty experts at his proverbial roundtable. Tony is almost a walking saint at this stage. We just need to do whatever Simon says and everything will be fine. Please just listen to the scientifical experts and stop buzz killing people's morale.

easypazz · 07-05-2020 01:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Does anybody else agree that lockdown will kill more people than we are "saving"?

First of all, I'm not sure how much we are realistically saving anyways. I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people dying from Covid are already fairly close to death anyways. People in nursing homes and elderly with multiple issues such as heart disease, diabetes. Maybe I'm heartless for thinking it and saying it, but there is only so much we can do to protect people at an advanced age with multiple illnesses. And all the stats are pointing in that direction. Over 90% dead are over 65. A lot of those already had cancer, diabetes, heart disease, COPD etc. Over 60% deaths are nursing homes.

As a result of this lockdown, lots and lots of medical check ups, procedures and treatments have been cancelled. God knows how many of those will result in deaths. Undetected cancer, untreated cancer etc. This could be young people that could have been saved for the longer term.

We also now have over 1M people on the dole. This number is still rising. With Tony suggesting that lockdown could be extended again, that number might rise even further. Completely unsustainable. The recession is going to be huge. And thousands will die either directly or indirectly as a result. And that is just touching the surface. Funds will be cut for just about everything. Homeless crisis will escalate. People will lose their homes, jobs and many other things.

The best course of action is to get the nursing homes under control and cocoon the elders. Everyone else must start living again.
If the numbers increase, we need to make peace with that. Its better for us in the long term.

While we are sitting at home, bored out of our minds, its hard to understand that we are killing thousands of people in the years ahead, but its exactly what we are doing.

The inconvenient truth.

road_high · 07-05-2020 01:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Does anybody else agree that lockdown will kill more people than we are "saving"?

First of all, I'm not sure how much we are realistically saving anyways. I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people dying from Covid are already fairly close to death anyways. People in nursing homes and elderly with multiple issues such as heart disease, diabetes. Maybe I'm heartless for thinking it and saying it, but there is only so much we can do to protect people at an advanced age with multiple illnesses. And all the stats are pointing in that direction. Over 90% dead are over 65. A lot of those already had cancer, diabetes, heart disease, COPD etc. Over 60% deaths are nursing homes.

As a result of this lockdown, lots and lots of medical check ups, procedures and treatments have been cancelled. God knows how many of those will result in deaths. Undetected cancer, untreated cancer etc. This could be young people that could have been saved for the longer term.

We also now have over 1M people on the dole. This number is still rising. With Tony suggesting that lockdown could be extended again, that number might rise even further. Completely unsustainable. The recession is going to be huge. And thousands will die either directly or indirectly as a result. And that is just touching the surface. Funds will be cut for just about everything. Homeless crisis will escalate. People will lose their homes, jobs and many other things.

The best course of action is to get the nursing homes under control and cocoon the elders. Everyone else must start living again.
If the numbers increase, we need to make peace with that. Its better for us in the long term.

While we are sitting at home, bored out of our minds, its hard to understand that we are killing thousands of people in the years ahead, but its exactly what we are doing.

That man demoralises me every time I hear from him.

RugbyLad11 · 07-05-2020 01:06PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1258354820844523521?s=19

We survived without the lockdown in January

growleaves · 07-05-2020 01:08PM

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown extending lockdown to JULY 6. Oregon ranks 40th on State Coronavirus List with 104 deaths in a State of 4 Million. They began their lockdown on MARCH 8.

Executive Order 20-24

Edit: According to CDC, only 77 Covid-only deaths in Oregon.

growleaves · 07-05-2020 01:09PM

hmmm · 07-05-2020 01:10PM

gozunda wrote: »

Ahh I see - you are an antivaxer. Thanks for that little nugget. It explains a lot imo.

It's ironic that one of the leading proponents of getting the economy restarted ASAP is also anti the one thing which would guarantee re-opening.

I'm really hopeful we will have vaccines relatively quickly, not for everyone but enough to cover front-line staff and reduce the overall risk considerably. However if the uptake is low we are going to be stuck in an economic rut for a long time.

I suppose if you are an anti-vaxxer, the only way to get the economy restarted is to try for herd immunity, and you might as well start that as soon as you can. "Some of you may die, but this is a sacrifice I am willing to make".

easypazz · 07-05-2020 01:10PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

We survived without the lockdown in January

I saw last night that Chicago are going back as far as November on suspect cases.

KrustyUCC · 07-05-2020 01:10PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

newstalk just now

"A third of people arriving into Dublin Airport do not provide any details of where they will be self isolating"

You want to keep covid19 cases to as low as possible? Its time to smell the coffee

In other countries everybody is taken to a hotel for their 14 days self isolation

No choice in the matter

If anybody fails to fill up the form that should happen here and bill people for their stay afterwards

road_high · 07-05-2020 01:13PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's ironic that one of the leading proponents of getting the economy restarted ASAP is also anti the one thing which would guarantee re-opening.

I'm really hopeful we will have vaccines relatively quickly, not for everyone but enough to cover front-line staff and reduce the overall risk considerably. However if the uptake is low we are going to be stuck in an economic rut for a long time.

I suppose if you are an anti-vaxxer, the only way to get the economy restarted is to try for herd immunity, and you might as well start that as soon as you can. "Some of you may die, but this is a sacrifice I am willing to make".

I'm very much pro-vaccine but I'm realsitic in the timelines. It takes year of data and trials to ensure one is even efficious and safe. No company in the litigious world we live are going to rush this to market, even if one did work.
Then you have to scale up production- billions in investment. And then a large cohort won't even take it up.
Where do you suggest we get the money to keep paying health people to do nothing?

mooseknunkle · 07-05-2020 01:16PM

NetChat101 wrote: »

Didn't think pubs were allowed do take away pints?

Plenty of places across the country doing takeaway and delivery of pints and cocktails etc ,heres one in Dublin

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07-05-2020 01:17PM

growleaves wrote: »

Reflects the country politically in most cases - Biden wins with that map in November

07-05-2020 01:19PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

In other countries everybody is taken to a hotel for their 14 days self isolation

No choice in the matter

If anybody fails to fill up the form that should happen here and bill people for their stay afterwards

Some other countries - most do not

RugbyLad11 · 07-05-2020 01:19PM

Does anyone find LEOs speeches so dull? He sounds like a school kid reading from a piece of paper

hmmm · 07-05-2020 01:19PM

road_high wrote: »

I'm very much pro-vaccine but I'm realsitic in the timelines. It takes year of data and trials to ensure one is even efficious and safe. No company in the litigious world we live are going to rush this to market, even if one did work.
Then you have to scale up production- billions in investment. And then a large cohort won't even take it up.

A few commentators who seem to know what they are talking about say we could have a few million (or tens of million) doses of vaccine available in Autumn. These could be used in large-scale Phase 3 trials. Certainly expect the US and China to have vaccines completing Phase 2 by then, and possibly the UK and maybe even the German company. Whether they'll make it available to us or not would be a question - might be interesting lever in Brexit negotiations.

If we even had our ICU staff vaccinated it would make a massive difference to the risk profile.

uli84 · 07-05-2020 01:22PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You think we followed the Chinese approach? Seriously? You have no clue what a lockdown really is

You’re right we didn’t follow, China has never put the whole country into lockdown, they locked down few provinces.

snotboogie · 07-05-2020 01:23PM

hmmm wrote: »

A few commentators who seem to know what they are talking about say we could have a few million (or tens of million) doses of vaccine available in Autumn. These could be used in large-scale Phase 3 trials. Certainly expect the US and China to have vaccines completing Phase 2 by then, and possibly the UK and maybe even the German company. Whether they'll make it available to us or not would be a question - might be interesting lever in Brexit negotiations.

If we even had our ICU staff vaccinated it would make a massive difference to the risk profile.

The fastest ever vaccine turnaround was 5 years. You think we'll have one within 9 months of the disease being identified?

easypazz · 07-05-2020 01:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

A few commentators who seem to know what they are talking about say we could have a few million (or tens of million) doses of vaccine available in Autumn. These could be used in large-scale Phase 3 trials. Certainly expect the US and China to have vaccines completing Phase 2 by then, and possibly the UK and maybe even the German company. Whether they'll make it available to us or not would be a question - might be interesting lever in Brexit negotiations.

If we even had our ICU staff vaccinated it would make a massive difference to the risk profile.

Every week there is a new vaccine touted, so far Donald Trumps bleach injections has been as good as any of the others.

KrustyUCC · 07-05-2020 01:26PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Some other countries - most do not

Sure but no good reason why we shouldn't make it extremely hard for people entering the country

Make it so that its not worth while to
A not fill up the form
B not fill it up properly
C not answer the phone when the Gards check in on them

Very hard to see big numbers self isolating if they don't even fill up a simple form

07-05-2020 01:30PM

uli84 wrote: »

No, we didn’t follow, China has never put the whole country into lockdown, they locked down few provinces

And this is why country comparisons are a futile exercise - Hubei is nearly 60m people and the lockdown there was far in excess of anything implemented here. And hundreds of millions of Chinese elsewhere in the country, not in official lockdown, had daily restrictions comparable or in excess of what we face

07-05-2020 01:32PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Sure but no good reason why we shouldn't make it extremely hard for people entering the country

Make it so that its not worth while to
A not fill up the form
B not fill it up properly
C not answer the phone when the Gards check in on them

Very hard to see big numbers self isolating if they don't even fill up a simple form

I agree - give people a choice - fill in the form or 100euro per night in a room in the Maldron or similar for 14days

boring accountant · 07-05-2020 01:36PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Indeed. You would have to question what certain posters` real agenda is when posting these comments.

The government has just introduced the most draconian measures since the public safety act of 1928 and those who question it have an agenda? I think those who promote this policy unquestioningly are the ones with the agenda.

ChelseaRentBoy · 07-05-2020 01:39PM

NetChat101 wrote: »

Have to say I'm almost in tears with frustration reading this. Our house has been in lockdown effectively since 13 March. We have done absolutely everything asked of us, and tried to keep smiling and positive for the kid's sake, but have to say we're finding this week hard. Then to read this has finished me off completely.

How can they expect people to keep going and (the majority) doing the right thing, when they allow this to happen?

It's hard alright. I see kids from different households outside now playing with each other, zero fcuks given.

One of our neighbours said something to one of them about why they where out and about an hour later the parent (a particularly nasty piece of work) was up banging on their door shouting and ranting about minding their own business.

I feel people are beginning to crack now

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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