Relaxation of restrictions Part II

What Username Guidelines · 07-05-2020 12:11PM

the kelt wrote: »

Of course with an increase in numbers 196 were residents or staff in long term facilities

Does that mean from 265 yesterday that 69 were community?

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:11PM

newstalk just now

"A third of people arriving into Dublin Airport do not provide any details of where they will be self isolating"

You want to keep covid19 cases to as low as possible? Its time to smell the coffee

ChelseaRentBoy · 07-05-2020 12:12PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's no wonder in fairness. Look at the amount of people throwing their toys out of the pram over our half-hearted lockdown. Can you imagine what the reaction would have been if it was any more severe?

That's true i suppose. It's been an eye opener for sure.

seamus · 07-05-2020 12:13PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Damn, Leo open up. Open up. If we dont open up by end of June, we wont have "businesses going back to work". we wont have anything to open...

"
LIMERICK is bracing itself for job losses this Wednesday with car ride-hailing service Uber set to cut workers at its city offices.

The company, which has its European centre of excellence in Thomas Street, has told the 500 staff to expect job losses locally, as it announced it is 3,700 redundancies worldwide.

While no figure has been revealed in terms of how the Limerick operation will be impacted, local TD Maurice Quinlivan said staff were today told to expect “up to 30%” layoffs. This would equate to around 150 positions."

Uber doesn't operate in Ireland, they are completely unaffected by our lockdown, this is down to global conditions.

As is the case with the last recession, there is actually very little we can do locally to protect jobs because we're massively vulnerable to international conditions.

Removing the lockdown right now would bring back a load of workers in the short-term, but there'd be a secondary wave of job losses as multinational companies permanently scale down their workforces.

fatalll · 07-05-2020 12:14PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

newstalk just now

"A third of people arriving into Dublin Airport do not provide any details of where they will be self isolating"

You want to keep covid19 cases to as low as possible? Its time to smell the coffee

Yeah as I said earlier, airports etc are the problem and will be going forward, if we want to be rid of it they will have to tackle this

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:17PM

seamus wrote: »

Uber doesn't operate in Ireland, they are completely unaffected by our lockdown, this is down to global conditions.

As is the case with the last recession, there is actually very little we can do locally to protect jobs because we're massively vulnerable to international conditions.

Removing the lockdown right now would bring back a load of workers in the short-term, but there'd be a secondary wave of job losses as multinational companies permanently scale down their workforces.

Thats assuming that all of our people are employed in large multinationals and will lose their jobs anyways.

To give a simple example, if I am allowed to go back to the office, I will be getting my lunch in Boojum. If i get my lunch in Boojum, i am supporting their company and their staff have a chance to stay in their job. Now, on a national scale, thats 150 000 + jobs.

I will pay my train ticket on the way to the office, and back. Thats money going to Irish Rail, to keep paying their staff.

This is economy in a nutshell. Keeping healthy young individuals at home and preventing them from contributing to the economy at the same level they have been contributing in 2019 = financial suicide.

So if we open up tomorrow, we give ourselves a much greater chance to save those 150 000 + jobs. Than if we open on 10th of August or 20th of July.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 12:18PM

seamus wrote: »

Your use of "superspreader" again, belies your feigned knowledge on the topic.

BS

Again, an assertion you make without basis except your own certainty.

And more BS.

Gabriel Scally speculated a superspreader was the cause of the high numbers in the border regions. Not cross border traffic.

Professor Nolan has said without restrictions the R0 would rise significantly.

These guys have forgotten more about this subject than you will ever know despite your feigned expertise.

Its laughable to see people like you ignore what experts like Nolan say, the same experts you defer to when it suits.

growleaves · 07-05-2020 12:19PM

I go shopping every 10 days to Lidl. I'd say about 20% of people wear masks. They are missing a rake of staff at present also.

Parks and footpaths full of joggers.

People getting haircuts and nails done on the side. Huge black market this at present.

House parties iv'e heard of two on my street this week alone including in fairness the Gardai breaking up one.

None of this stuff was allowed in China and they suppressed the virus.

Are lockdown has been a farce.

In Communist countries huge black markets are a permanent feature of life whether they are "allowed" or not. (Nothing illegal is allowed by definition yet crime exists)

Yes of course a Communist tyranny is more restrictive than a free country. So would fascist/national socialist countries be. That doesn't make it farcical.

How do you know China suppressed the virus and why trust anything they say? If we are taking dictatorships at face value then lets also believe Belarus.

The guards arrested three people in Templeogue the other day. They are quietly making quite a lot of arrests.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:19PM

fatalll wrote: »

Yeah as I said earlier, airports etc are the problem and will be going forward, if we want to be rid of it they will have to tackle this

Thats an interesting discussion to be had. Cus you may be adopting some of North Korea techniques of violating people's privacy.

In general, can get wrong details too. People come in can always lie and mix up their apartment number, its not actually Apartment 42 its apartment 24 where they live. Etc etc etc.

hmmm · 07-05-2020 12:19PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The large numbers of deaths here or elsewhere has nothing to do with the general populace breaking the lockdown.

If the disease is spreading in the community, it's going to get into nursing homes. No amounts of visitor restrictions or PPE is going to stop it, only slow it down. If we all don't do our part we are all contributing to the problem, and we can't simply blame the HSE.

And doing our part is for most of us are simple things - not having a house party, not going to see that hairdresser, doing a shop once a week only. Some of the more difficult things like not seeing family will become easier in the coming weeks, but the physical distancing has to remain until we get a vaccine, or we figure out a safer way to live with this.

Thelonious Monk · 07-05-2020 12:21PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Damn, Leo open up. Open up. If we dont open up by end of June, we wont have "businesses going back to work". we wont have anything to open...

"
LIMERICK is bracing itself for job losses this Wednesday with car ride-hailing service Uber set to cut workers at its city offices.

The company, which has its European centre of excellence in Thomas Street, has told the 500 staff to expect job losses locally, as it announced it is 3,700 redundancies worldwide.

While no figure has been revealed in terms of how the Limerick operation will be impacted, local TD Maurice Quinlivan said staff were today told to expect “up to 30%” layoffs. This would equate to around 150 positions."

We don't even use Uber in Ireland, it's an international office. These jobs are gone no matter what Leo does. Airbnb jobs are gone too because of global issues.
People seem to be failing to grasp that our economy is f*cked regardless of what we open up.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:23PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

We don't even use Uber in Ireland, it's an international office. These jobs are gone no matter what Leo does. Airbnb jobs are gone too because of global issues.
People seem to be failing to grasp that our economy is f*cked regardless of what we open up.

Yeah but theres 200 000 + employed in local small to medium enterprises. They do not get affected whether someone in Paris takes an Uber or not.

But their jobs will be gone if young workforce cant go to have a lunch or dinner or a pint and cant contribute to the economy until 20th of July or 10th of August. Thats over 2 months and 2 weeks from now. These are insane timelines.

Thelonious Monk · 07-05-2020 12:24PM

And everyone with WFH facilities will be doing so for the foreseeable future, so even if every burrito place in Dublin opened they're still screwed with lack of customers.

Nermal · 07-05-2020 12:25PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

We don't even use Uber in Ireland, it's an international office. These jobs are gone no matter what Leo does. Airbnb jobs are gone too because of global issues.
People seem to be failing to grasp that our economy is f*cked regardless of what we open up.

We want the world to open up. Not just us. Think globally, act locally.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 12:26PM

hmmm wrote: »

If the disease is spreading in the community, it's going to get into nursing homes. No amounts of visitor restrictions or PPE is going to stop it, only slow it down. If we all don't do our part we are all contributing to the problem, and we can't simply blame the HSE.

And doing our part is for most of us are simple things - not having a house party, not going to see that hairdresser, doing a shop once a week only. Some of the more difficult things like not seeing family will become easier in the coming weeks, but the physical distancing has to remain until we get a vaccine, or we figure out a safer way to live with this.

We've almost shut down the entire country for 8 weeks.

And yet almost half of all nursing homes are affected.

Does this indicate its been a huge success? Or that the problem lies not with the people but elsewhere.

As it stands, a nursing home staff member can still go shopping and mix relatively freely in the community.

Does it not make more sense to restrict the movements of nursing home staff?

Which is more cost effective? Prevent 2 million workers from going about their business? Or restrict the movements of 10,000 or so nursing home staff?

Cork Boy 53 · 07-05-2020 12:27PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

This thread has been a real eye-opener in terms of how much people want to have a go at the government no matter what.

Indeed. You would have to question what certain posters` real agenda is when posting these comments.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:28PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

And everyone with WFH facilities will be doing so for the foreseeable future, so even if every burrito place in Dublin opened they're still screwed with lack of customers.

Not my place. Talks are already ongoing about bringing people into work like 3/5 days a week. Or have rotation in office workers.

Anything else and big companies in IFSC are paying 10 million euros + for annual rent to keep their buildings empty. (btw losing canteen jobs etc. vicious)

All of this should be on voluntary basis, if you dont mind continuing your life knowing that you could get infected, you should do so. We are adults. We are over 18. Why can we make decisions who our partner is (and put ourselves at HIV risk etc etc) but we cant make a decision how to live our lives around covid?

Thelonious Monk · 07-05-2020 12:28PM

Nermal wrote: »

We want the world to open up. Not just us. Think globally, act locally.

and how can you get the world to open up?

pleasant Co. · 07-05-2020 12:29PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Does it not make more sense to restrict the movements of nursing home staff?

How do you suggest that cunning plan is achieved?

Thelonious Monk · 07-05-2020 12:29PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Not my place. Talks are already ongoing about bringing people into work like 3/5 days a week. Or have rotation in office workers.

Anything else and big companies in IFSC are paying 10 million euros + for annual rent to keep their buildings empty. (btw losing canteen jobs etc. vicious)

All of this should be on voluntary basis, if you dont mind continuing your life knowing that you could get infected, you should do so. We are adults. We are over 18. Why can we make decisions who our partner is (and put ourselves at HIV risk etc etc) but we cant make a decision how to live our lives around covid?

I'm not 100% behind what the government is doing now but it doesn't matter if you don't mind getting sick it matters that you might spread it to others

yawhat? · 07-05-2020 12:31PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Not my place. Talks are already ongoing about bringing people into work like 3/5 days a week. Or have rotation in office workers.

Anything else and big companies in IFSC are paying 10 million euros + for annual rent to keep their buildings empty. (btw losing canteen jobs etc. vicious)

All of this should be on voluntary basis, if you dont mind continuing your life knowing that you could get infected, you should do so. We are adults. We are over 18. Why can we make decisions who our partner is (and put ourselves at HIV risk etc etc) but we cant make a decision how to live our lives around covid?

Do you really not understand or are you pretending to not understand?

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 12:32PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Indeed. You would have to question what certain posters` real agenda is when posting these comments.

Preventing unnecessary deaths in specific at risk categories while saving the economy.

Both of which our government have failed to do.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:33PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I'm not 100% behind what the government is doing now but it doesn't matter if you don't mind getting sick it matters that you might spread it to others

But that doesnt make any sense, cus if we do this on voluntary basis then whoever leaves their house to go to their place of work (even though they could WFH) is accepting the risk of getting infected and spreading it.

So if I accept that risk and other employee accepts that risk and elderly/vulnerable stay at home to cocoon and obviously people who accepted the risk do not interact with elderly/vulnerable, we then have a good strategy here.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 12:36PM

pleasant Co. wrote: »

How do you suggest that cunning plan is achieved?

As I said they represent a miniscule portion of the workforce.

Limit their and their family movements in the community. Deliver food supplies to their homes. Isolate them as much as possible from the community.

As present they are free to go anywhere in the community which inevitably means risks. This is the main reason our current lockdown is not working.

And give them substantial pay rises or a lump sum equivalent to their annual salary.

All of this would cost a few billion euro.

Our current lockdown is going to cost us 30 billion at least and that's a best case scenario.

seamus · 07-05-2020 12:36PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Thats assuming that all of our people are employed in large multinationals and will lose their jobs anyways.

To give a simple example, if I am allowed to go back to the office, I will be getting my lunch in Boojum. If i get my lunch in Boojum, i am supporting their company and their staff have a chance to stay in their job. Now, on a national scale, thats 150 000 + jobs

You will still have the opportunity to support their company whether you go back to work now or in six weeks. Business will always survive where the demand exists. Even if Boojum goes bust, someone else will jump in there to provide a similar service when the demand returns.

It's the Uber staff who go get their lunch in Boojum that will never go back there, which poses the bigger risk to our economy.

Reopening now won't stop the next Uber taking those jobs away, and at best will bring those jobs back to Boojum for a few weeks before they have to be taken away again as demand hits the floor.

We need to pump as much money as possible into supporting indigenous businesses into getting back on their feet when the restrictions end, and that will minimise job losses in the dependent businesses. Ending the lockdown prematurely won't do this, and could end up creating a dead cat bounce.

stephenjmcd · 07-05-2020 12:40PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1258354820844523521?s=19

gozunda · 07-05-2020 12:42PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I wasnt pointing the fact of whats passed or not. Merely highlighted the fact that

A) Pharma companies do not profit if you have good health. There is an instant conflict of interest arising, they ll make billions if a harmful vaccine is distributed and people need follow up care (follow up care is the big buck)

WHO and other "world health agencies" are corrupt, are being led by god knows who, Tedros person in WHO has covered up malaria outbreak in Ethiopia 3 times... advised not to close travel from China in January. The list is endless.

C) Vaccines are harmful. They tend to be more harmful than the disease they are suppose to prevent. It is criminal to be pushing vaccine agenda without any serious trial period (of 5 - 10 years). It would be a disaster to develop a vaccine in 9 months, inject it into everyone and see people have their life expectancy cut in half and die at 40 years of age.

But there is 1 positive, we are in the EU, and Germany have much better health and virologists experts than WHO and all of Neil Fergusons around. And they are the ones who govern our country really, thankfully.
...

Ahh I see - you are an antivaxer. Thanks for that little nugget. It explains a lot imo.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:42PM

seamus wrote: »

You will still have the opportunity to support their company whether you go back to work now or in six weeks. Business will always survive where the demand exists. Even if Boojum goes bust, someone else will jump in there to provide a similar service when the demand returns.

It's the Uber staff who go get their lunch in Boojum that will never go back there, which poses the bigger risk to our economy.

Reopening now won't stop the next Uber taking those jobs away, and at best will bring those jobs back to Boojum for a few weeks before they have to be taken away again as demand hits the floor.

We need to pump as much money as possible into supporting indigenous businesses into getting back on their feet when the restrictions end, and that will minimise job losses in the dependent businesses. Ending the lockdown prematurely won't do this, and could end up creating a dead cat bounce.

I do not doubt nation's ability to start new businesses.

I doubt a plan that puts existing businesses and employees permanently out of work and into poverty, at a very questionable (if any) gain.

The risk of covid will be identical regardless when we open because people are coming through the airports now, and they are not isolating. And it is evident as they dont even give an address where they "intend" to "isolate".

We are failing every day to "control" the virus as we cant police 1000 + people every day. or even once a month really. If our plan is to reduce covid19 cases as much as possible until August, then we are failing already as 33% + of people flying in to Dublin airport do not isolate or get a test. we are talking about 1000+ people, not 1 or 2.

stephenjmcd · 07-05-2020 12:45PM

Harris the other day sorry your not going abroad this year, leo today,

"Leo Varadkar said we can learn from successes and errors of other European countries reopening before us.

The Taoiseach said the Government wants to hear from sectors who think they can open more quickly.

He also said he would like to see a return to international air travel as soon as is safe and he said he is optimistic air travel will resume this year.

The Taoiseach said we came back from the last economic crisis and we will do so again."

Balf · 07-05-2020 12:46PM

seamus wrote: »

We need to pump as much money as possible into supporting indigenous businesses into getting back on their feet when the restrictions end, and that will minimise job losses in the dependent businesses. Ending the lockdown prematurely won't do this, and could end up creating a dead cat bounce.

With de problem being our indigenous sector doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

Mostly, our indigenous firms are small SMEs doing services or retail. So "pumping" supports means throwing money at Amanda the hairdresser, so she can lunch in Boojum.

The FDI sector is what keeps it all going. Even when you looked at things like income tax, you find that this relatively small proportion of the workforce contributes something like a quarter of PAYE.

There's a really big structural problem there. FDI, on the one hand, has been successful for decades. But, as you say, its mobile and our indigenous private sector doesn't have many enterprises that can fill the gap.

No particular solution, just always find it helpful to poke a little into the issue as there's so much rhetoric around SME innovation. Your typical Irish SME innovation is doing a deal on the breakfast roll to throw in a tin of coke for 50c.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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