Relaxation of restrictions Part II

facehugger99 · 07-05-2020 11:37AM

fatalll wrote: »

I think it did prevent deaths, surely you cannot deny that it did.

It has cost lives.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 11:37AM

AdamD wrote: »

How many people were we testing a day when we got 90 positive results vs now? Its just not an honest comparison.

Something like 1000 tests a day. I take your point. In reality there were far more cases than 90 a day. Likely in the hundreds.

Testing will never find every case, nowhere near. Nolan admitted this, he said for every 5 you find, there are likely 5 more, many of them asymptomatic.

Which means even if we were able to get down to 50 confirmed cases a day, its in reality 100 cases a day. And that will jump again in a matter of weeks.

It makes more sense to direct as much resources as possible at an area which will give the most results and that's currently nursing homes.

We are wasting vast resources on the public and policing lockdowns with minimal returns on that investment.

07-05-2020 11:38AM

growleaves wrote: »

I presume it prevented some deaths yes. I don't think it has made a huge appreciable difference in terms of nos. of deaths, but would like to see significant evidence either way.

Non-locked-down countries like Sweden, Belarus etc. do not have deaths in the 100,000s (as modelled orginally).

When Belarus are even expelling Russian journalists for questioning their numbers you know you cant trust anything they are telling us

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/07/belarus-expels-russian-journalist-over-fake-coronavirus-report-media-a70203

easypazz · 07-05-2020 11:39AM

gozunda wrote: »

Well that's the model New Zealand used and it seemed to have worked. Obviously that cant be done here now - but we can use the fairly light restrictions we do have in comparison to that to continue to keep the infection rate down and hopefully the total number of new cases and deaths.

People know that the Covid payment was time limited. This has been signalled from the very beginning. Thankfully the majority of people will get on with things the best way they can imo. As restrictions are lifted going forward- there will be more employment opportunities. It may not be perfect but that's where we are. Between the devil and the dark blue sea ....

gozunda wrote: »

It only takes a few idiots who don't give a proverbial about others to keep the figures increasing. I agree the majority are sticking with what has been asked of all of us but the fact that the disease in highly contagious and some who dont care is keep going to bite us. That said the figures do seem to be heading in the right way.

So we only have fairly light restrictions and the numbers are going down anyway?

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 11:39AM

MOH wrote: »

Since you can't be bothered supplying a link, and seem to have selectively quoted to make this sound like something which has "just passed", here a link to the resolution from eleven years ago:
http://www.whale.to/vaccine/EDOC12110.pdf

I wasnt pointing the fact of whats passed or not. Merely highlighted the fact that

A) Pharma companies do not profit if you have good health. There is an instant conflict of interest arising, they ll make billions if a harmful vaccine is distributed and people need follow up care (follow up care is the big buck)

WHO and other "world health agencies" are corrupt, are being led by god knows who, Tedros person in WHO has covered up malaria outbreak in Ethiopia 3 times... advised not to close travel from China in January. The list is endless.

C) Vaccines are harmful. They tend to be more harmful than the disease they are suppose to prevent. It is criminal to be pushing vaccine agenda without any serious trial period (of 5 - 10 years). It would be a disaster to develop a vaccine in 9 months, inject it into everyone and see people have their life expectancy cut in half and die at 40 years of age.

But there is 1 positive, we are in the EU, and Germany have much better health and virologists experts than WHO and all of Neil Fergusons around. And they are the ones who govern our country really, thankfully.

thanks for providing the link btw

seamus · 07-05-2020 11:39AM

fatalll wrote: »

yeah kinda agree with you, but he is right in that the government arent prepared enough to prevent it increasing , eg. airports etc

Talk of heat scanning at airports shows that he hasn't a clue. Another armchair expert.

He's right that the purpose of a lockdown is to get longer term measures in place. And that's been done.

Yes, we're missing a few bits, but no country has done it perfectly. Some things are within government control, others are outside of it such as resource availability and legal constraints. We're a small fish in a huge pond where everyone has been trying to get a share of the same plankton.

The notion that we've had lockdown and done nothing with it, is completely wrong. The assertion that our case numbers will skyrocket is based on nothing.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 11:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

And each of those 90 were passing it to 4 people, while the current 250 are passing it to c.0.5

You realise 250 cases is from a tiny minority of the population? We will see the true figures next week.

If they do eventually get it to 100,000 tests a week and have a very low positive rate of 3%, that's 3000 confirmed cases a week or about 430 a day.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 11:42AM

seamus wrote: »

Talk of heat scanning at airports shows that he hasn't a clue. Another armchair expert.

He's right that the purpose of a lockdown is to get longer term measures in place. And that's been done.

Yes, we're missing a few bits, but no country has done it perfectly. Some things are within government control, others are outside of it such as resource availability and legal constraints. We're a small fish in a huge pond where everyone has been trying to get a share of the same plankton.

The notion that we've had lockdown and done nothing with it, is completely wrong. The assertion that our case numbers will skyrocket is based on nothing.

Every country that has got this under control has heat scanners everywhere - airports, retail outlets, everywhere.

But sure what would they know?

If a heat scanner catches one superspreader with a temp over 38 degrees it will have paid for itself.

As for numbers rocketing after lifting restrictions, you clearly don't understand what happens when the R0 goes up, which it will.

fatalll · 07-05-2020 11:45AM

growleaves wrote: »

I presume it prevented some deaths yes. I don't think it has made a huge appreciable difference in terms of nos. of deaths, but would like to see significant evidence either way.

Non-locked-down countries like Sweden, Belarus etc. do not have deaths in the 100,000s (as modelled orginally).

Maybe, I dunno to be honest.

I know the models are only as good as the data that is fed in to them.
Also Sweden have being obeying social distancing and wash hands etc, which would reduce it anyway. also, some are using masks and the older cohort are going out and about less

This definitely reduces it.

Cork Boy 53 · 07-05-2020 11:45AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Those countries dont even have 5000 deaths, from 2 of them put together.

And Belarus football stadiums attendance has not decreased one bit.

The models were created by the same crowd that predicted 65,000 deaths from Swine flu in UK alone. 392 died. Professor lockdown has broke the lockdown rules there for a bit of romance. I think we can safely discontinue mentioning those crazy models from crazy professors.

This statement is just not true.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52221232/coronavirus-why-are-football-teams-in-belarus-still-playing

fatalll · 07-05-2020 11:47AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It has cost lives.

Im sure it may have but it has saved lives too.
Before you ask, Im not sure where the balance is. Who does

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 11:48AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

This statement is just not true.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52221232/coronavirus-why-are-football-teams-in-belarus-still-playing

BBC article?

The "Italian death rate could be much higher, report says"

"Germany infections may be 10 times higher, expert says"

Please dont link that in the future, you are diminishing your credibility. BBC has created a coronavirus live page to scare monger... you spend more than 2 mins on BBC you ll develop a depression.

easypazz · 07-05-2020 11:51AM

150 jobs lost Uber Limerick.

This situation is unsustainable.

At the moment the government have money for months ahead.

Soon there will only be enough money for week by week.

07-05-2020 11:52AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You realise 250 cases is from a tiny minority of the population? We will see the true figures next week.

If they do eventually get it to 100,000 tests a week and have a very low positive rate of 3%, that's 3000 confirmed cases a week or about 430 a day.

Both test numbers are ramping and detected cases are falling at the same time. This tells us the true numbers are falling rapidly. Criteria has also been widened for over a week at this stage, so this fall is already from a wider net both in raw numbers and types of cases referred. This has been further widened from this week.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 11:53AM

The large numbers of deaths here or elsewhere has nothing to do with the general populace breaking the lockdown.

Its mostly to do with incompetent governments' failure to protect nursing home residents and give nursing homes the proper supports and PPE. The HSE have committed 200 extra staff to nursing homes. That's not even 1 for every 2 nursing homes. And some have these homes have close to 100 staff, many of them currently out sick.

Its far easier to blame the people than for the HSE, CMO and government to take personal responsibility.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 11:55AM

Deleted User wrote: »

When Belarus are even expelling Russian journalists for questioning their numbers you know you cant trust anything they are telling us

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/07/belarus-expels-russian-journalist-over-fake-coronavirus-report-media-a70203

But we trust that China was successful in their lockdown and followed their approach.

Give me a break

:D:D

We trust WHO that condemned banning travel from China in January as a bad idea.

The comedy in this thread

Cork Boy 53 · 07-05-2020 11:56AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

BBC article?

The "Italian death rate could be much higher, report says"

"Germany infections may be 10 times higher, expert says"

Please dont link that in the future, you are diminishing your credibility. BBC has created a coronavirus live page to scare monger... you spend more than 2 mins on BBC you ll develop a depression.

In your opinion. BTW are you going to answer the question I asked you in my earlier post?

07-05-2020 11:57AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

BBC article?

The "Italian death rate could be much higher, report says"

"Germany infections may be 10 times higher, expert says"

Please dont link that in the future, you are diminishing your credibility. BBC has created a coronavirus live page to scare monger... you spend more than 2 mins on BBC you ll develop a depression.

Yep - no change in attendance whatsoever

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/apr/10/football-for-dummies-dynamo-brest-play-before-mannequin-fans-in-belarus
https://www.dailysabah.com/sports/football/belarusian-football-wins-fans-abroad-as-locals-boycott-matches

road_high · 07-05-2020 11:57AM

easypazz wrote: »

150 jobs lost Uber Limerick.

This situation is unsustainable.

At the moment the government have money for months ahead.

Soon there will only be enough money for week by week.

There are jobs going in blue-chip companies like these. AirBnB the same. Highlights of Ireland's tech and financial sectors.
Not to mention the hotels and hospitality, travel sectors. It's shocking but not surprising.

seamus · 07-05-2020 11:58AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Every country that has got this under control has heat scanners everywhere - airports, retail outlets, everywhere.

New Zealand doesn't. Many others don't either. The correlation between having it under control and heat scanners is that these countries threw everything at it, whether it would work or not. One of the first things China did was deploy people with thermometers everywhere, and it made little difference.

Heat scanners might detect a symptomatic person in the early stages of the virus. Your use of "superspreader" again, belies your feigned knowledge on the topic.

The fact is that there are a couple of key measures that need to be put in place to restrict spread. Without them you're lost.

Other measures, like heat scanners, masks and inbound quarantines, will help you tip the dial a little bit further in the right direction, but are pointless without the main measures, and are not essential to contain the virus.

As for numbers rocketing after lifting restrictions, you clearly don't understand what happens when the R0 goes up, which it will.

Again, an assertion you make without basis except your own certainty.

07-05-2020 11:59AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But we trust that China was successful in their lockdown and followed their approach.

Give me a break :D:D

We trust WHO that condemned banning travel from China in January as a bad idea.

The comedy in this thread

You think we followed the Chinese approach? Seriously? You have no clue what a lockdown really is

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:04PM

Ohhh this hurts so much. Beer gardens, BEER GARDENS. I love that part where heads of states in Germany have decided to open up before even meeting Merkel... If only we had her as our leader. Top politician.

"
She emerged after what was reportedly a stormy session with Germany's regional leaders who were so impatient to restart their local economies that some had already announced plans to relax restrictions before the meeting even began.

The leaders have got their way and many Germans will no doubt be delighted at the prospect of beer gardens and Bundesliga. Mrs Merkel too, who'd emphasised that no part of society should be left behind in any relaxation, may well be pleased by measures which will, for example, allow people in care homes a designated visitor."

Cork Boy 53 · 07-05-2020 12:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You think we followed the Chinese approach? Seriously? You have no clue what a lockdown really is

Indeed. It would seem this poster`s credibility is diminishing at an exponential rate.;)

ChelseaRentBoy · 07-05-2020 12:05PM

road_high wrote: »

Seriously depressing reading last night the increased figures here- while dropping on the Continent and life getting back to normal. WTF are we at? The lockdown here has been strict, well supported and very well adhered to. Nothing much is open. How the fcuk are we doing so poorly?

I go shopping every 10 days to Lidl. I'd say about 20% of people wear masks. They are missing a rake of staff at present also.

Parks and footpaths full of joggers.

People getting haircuts and nails done on the side. Huge black market this at present.

House parties iv'e heard of two on my street this week alone including in fairness the Gardai breaking up one.

None of this stuff was allowed in China and they suppressed the virus.

Our lockdown has been a farce.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 12:07PM

Damn, Leo open up. Open up. If we dont open up by end of June, we wont have "businesses going back to work". we wont have anything to open...

"
LIMERICK is bracing itself for job losses this Wednesday with car ride-hailing service Uber set to cut workers at its city offices.

The company, which has its European centre of excellence in Thomas Street, has told the 500 staff to expect job losses locally, as it announced it is 3,700 redundancies worldwide.

While no figure has been revealed in terms of how the Limerick operation will be impacted, local TD Maurice Quinlivan said staff were today told to expect “up to 30%” layoffs. This would equate to around 150 positions."

growleaves · 07-05-2020 12:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You think we followed the Chinese approach? Seriously? You have no clue what a lockdown really is

We need an "Its not a real lockdown" drinking game ...On second thoughts we don't want overwhelm the hospitals

the kelt · 07-05-2020 12:07PM

It was good to get some more breakdown of some numbers.

Intensive care patient numbers down to 86.

Of course with an increase in numbers 196 were residents or staff in long term facilities including 160 in nursing homes with another nine clusters despite some simpletons views that increase in numbers are only from house parties and people breaking restrictions etc

There was also an analysis of the first 327 of the sickest patients.

165 of those had chronic heart disease
76 had chronic respiratory disease
74 had diabetes
53 were obese
34 had asthma
31 suffered from cancer
20 had chronic kidney disease

It was the first time we had an insight from the HSE in regards to the types of conditions hardest hit.

I didnt see any numbers from that 327 of people who had no underlying conditions at all which would have been helpful.

In certain situations patients may have had 1 or 2 of the above symptoms.

growleaves · 07-05-2020 12:09PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Damn, Leo open up. Open up. If we dont open up by end of June, we wont have "businesses going back to work". we wont have anything to open...

HeidiHeidi · 07-05-2020 12:10PM

The amount of exaggeration, cherry-picking of bits of "facts" to bolster opinions, twisting of headlines, and just downright incorrect information, in this and other threads is absolutely mind boggling.

Utter scutter.

ChelseaRentBoy · 07-05-2020 12:11PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Indeed. It would seem this poster`s credibility is diminishing.;)

I heard a virologist on BBC world last week talk about the lockdown in the UK. He argued they should have inforced a proper lockdown akin to China but over a much much shorter time. A "short sharp shock" is how he described it.

He basically said the lockdown in the UK was half arsed (i'd argue much like here) and it has the double effect of killing more people and killing the economy.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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