Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Germany's R number holding very steady still. Current modeling gives R still at 0.71.

Graph attached shows pre and post lockdown so far.

Leo & Harris and the HSE are bluffers

easy known Leo will be off on a EU or UN role while the rest of us are picking up the tab for this mis-adventure.

paw patrol wrote: »

at some stage people will mix together - the 2nd spike will happen no matter what we do

hopefully sooner rather than later says me

Cant say that for sure. There are a lot of theories about what will happen this virus. Some predict what you suggest with a number of waves. Others suggest that far more people may have been infected than we know about thus some for of immunity may be present. Others suggest that it is natural for a virus mutate and to weaken over time, it has been suggested that this has already happened with weaker strains going around so it is possible thay future waves may not cause many hospitalisations or deaths.

podgeandrodge wrote: »

boards seems back to normal for me. Even if life isn't

Be careful. We may have a second wave.

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-cas-de-covid-19-repertorie-en-france-des-le-27-decembre-affirme-le-chef-d-un-service-de-reanimation-de-seine-saint-denis_3946867.html

France Info TV is a public service tv station owned by Radio France, France Televisions / France Media Monde and l'institue national de l’audiovisuel. Basically French equivalent of BBC News 24 or RTE News.

Yes:
the French case - who contracted the virus on 27 December - therefore pre-dating all: Germany (Bavaria case end of January) and Spain (Valencia case, 13 February) and Italy (Codogno case, 21 February) is real.


Here is the interview in French:
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/j-avais-des-douleurs-au-thorax-le-patient-infecte-par-le-coronavirus-en-decembre-temoigne-1907944.html

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

Correct, tested 27th December and with incubation period as you say, the person contracted it a good bit before the 27th

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

But Dr Cohen pointed out that the patient's wife worked at a supermarket near Charles de Gaulle airport and could have come into contact with people who had recently arrived from China.

The patient's wife said that "often customers would come directly from the airport, still carrying their suitcases".

The wife didn't get sick. But her 43 year old husband and kids did.

New Zealand PM: No open borders for a long time

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52540733

ek motor wrote:

New Zealand PM: No open borders for a long time

I wish we had a leader like her. We'd be out of this mess already if we had.

MattS1 wrote: »

I'm interested to see how the restaurants will work. What's to stop a group of six coming in for dinner and load of pints for 3/4 hours? Or will that be allowed.

That'll be allowed, and its why the vinters had an urgent meeting with the Taoiseach yesterday. They're terrified that pubs that only serve beer and stack people wall-to-wall will become deeply unpopular, and people will shun them in favour of bar/restaurant premises.

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

What is key to remember though, is that this still doesn't support the popular assertion that, "I think lots of people had Covid already last year".

Given that only a fraction of Covid infections end up in ICU, it is certain that in every country there were infections earlier than the first recorded one. France's first confirmed case was 24th January. So a case existing 4 weeks earlier than that shouldn't be a surprise. We know that one person was in ICU 11 days before our first confirmed case. It's impossible that there weren't earlier cases that were pneumonia misclassified.

For this one case in France, the stats mean there were anything from 10-20 other infected people at the same time. The long incubation period of this and the variance in symptoms means that this shouldn't be a surprise. Indeed, it could have spread to a few hundred people before it hit someone more vulnerable.

The key though is that if Covid had been more widespread earlier - responsible for the illness that caused some schools to have 50% absences last year - then we would have seen a spike in deaths at the same time. We didn't. Death rates into January this year were about normal across the EU. They only started to spike in March.

Maybe there's a link; maybe that previous illness left people's immune/respiratory systems exceptionally vulnerable to covid. Or maybe there's not.

But it's important not to make any declarations or assumptions. We need to keep stepping back as far as we can to find the earliest cases.

The worst-case scenario is that this virus is the same one that was widespread at the end of last year. Because that means it has mutated now and become considerably more dangerous.

seamus wrote: »

That'll be allowed, and its why the vinters had an urgent meeting with the Taoiseach yesterday. They're terrified that pubs that only serve beer and stack people wall-to-wall will become deeply unpopular, and people will shun them in favour of bar/restaurant premises.

Drunk people and social distancing, that won't lead to punch ups at all.

Deleted User wrote: »

Up to two weeks but most often in the 2-7 day range, which means in all likelihood it was caught from someone travelling from China immediately before Christmas.

The fact that this is the only one that has shown up in this time period also strengthens not weakens the case that it was not widely circulating in Europe prior to February. If it had been widely circulating, there would be lots of these reports.

Reports have to be verified, in this case they had a blood sample as far as I know.

He may not be French "patient zero".

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Yes the lockdown is working and good job done by all to reduce the numbers.

But even if we stay locked down for another few weeks/months there is going to be a spike when things open up again.

It all about how brave or cautious Dr Tony and NPHET are going to be when this happens.

Going on their current handling of things and the long drawn out opening up plan things don’t look good. We’re in danger of a yo yo open close situation.

This will be when these advisers need to be questioned and not just blindly follow their advice.

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

But isn't a more cautious approach going to reduce the risk of a yo yo open close situation?

Relax restrictions slightly, measure result, ensure disease is still under control before taking any further steps. At each stage, measure and ensure it is still under control and is likely to remain so before moving to the next stage.

I'd prefer to do it right and to it once than do a rush job and end up in and out of restrictions like Lannigan's Ball.

We don't want to follow Hokkaido and end back at square one, or worse, a month or two after lifting restrictions.
https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

https://www.wlrn.org/post/ecuador-health-minister-horrifying-coronavirus-plague-better-contained-now#stream/0
Ecuador's health minister believes the recent excess of 7000 deaths in Ecuador is attributable to COVID

Update on the patient zero in Paris in December...

His wife worked in a fish market with Chinese colleagues. So could easily have been a once off transmission and not caught because of circulation of the virus in Europe

https://readsector.com/frenchman-43-reveals-he-is-the-patient-zero-who-had-coronavirus-last-december/