Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Redo91 · 04-05-2020 06:54PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Galway County is nice. Galway town is awful. Tacky craft shops, dull pubs and crusty hippies.

It’s a city not a town thank you very much.

political analyst · 04-05-2020 06:57PM

If the R number in Ireland is below 1, then why won't the government let cafés and restaurants re-open earlier than the date currently planned?

ACitizenErased · 04-05-2020 07:04PM

political analyst wrote: »

If the R number in Ireland is below 1, then why won't the government let cafés and restaurants re-open earlier than the date currently planned?

Because the R number will go right back up again

Ficheall · 04-05-2020 07:04PM

political analyst wrote: »

If the R number in Ireland is below 1, then why won't the government let cafés and restaurants re-open earlier than the date currently planned?

Because we want to keep it below 1 for a little while longer at least.

Jim_Hodge · 04-05-2020 07:13PM

political analyst wrote: »

If the R number in Ireland is below 1, then why won't the government let cafés and restaurants re-open earlier than the date currently planned?

You haven't grasped what the R0 is. Even 0.5 means 10 infected people infect 5, who infect 5 more, and on and on until we're right back where we started.

Christy42 · 04-05-2020 07:15PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You haven't grasped what the R0 is. Even 0.5 means 10 infected people infect 5, who infect 5 more, and on and on until we're right back where we started.

Err. No. It means 10 people infect 5 who infect 2/3 etc.

Below 1 means the virus will disappear in time. However it has to be kept below 1 for this to happen and the lower the quicker it goes away which is why cafes etc. are still closed.

Micky 32 · 04-05-2020 07:16PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised the number of new cases is remaining so high. Have they finished testing all the nursing homes and is this effectively a backlog, or are these true "new" cases occurring in the community?

Have you not checked the hospital admissions and ICU data or are those numbers not dramatic enough for you? :rolleyes:

DebDynamite · 04-05-2020 07:19PM

coastwatch wrote: »

I think travel within the EU could be re-started in a couple of months, without the need to isolate, based on the countries achieving an agreed testing standard.
Thats how the EU could re-engage at this stage, after the long silence.

In a couple of months, Ireland isn’t even going to he opened up to its own citizens! (Well, bar the ones who live in Northern Ireland - they have free rein). We have to wait until 20th July to travel more than 20km! Talk of allowing international tourism to start again is ludicrous

tigger123 · 04-05-2020 07:23PM

Is there any indication for creches being open? Apart from the one or two lines in the Governments plan (that really didn't give any clarity).

Stheno · 04-05-2020 07:23PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

In a couple of months, Ireland isn’t even going to he opened up to its own citizens! (Well, bar the ones who live in Northern Ireland - they have free rein). We have to wait until 20th July to travel more than 20km! Talk of allowing international tourism to start again is ludicrous

I'm wondering if they went with the most drawn out timetable they could? Cillian de Gascun said at the weekend the opening could be accelerated if things went well

And does anyone find it a coincidence the pubs are to open after the last Summer bank holiday?

04-05-2020 07:24PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You haven't grasped what the R0 is. Even 0.5 means 10 infected people infect 5, who infect 5 more, and on and on until we're right back where we started.

Another genius who's been posting here for a month but still hasn't the first clue of the basics.
Read something other than a message board and educate yourself.

Stheno · 04-05-2020 07:24PM

tigger123 wrote: »

Is there any indication for creches being open? Apart from the one or two lines in the Governments plan (that really didn't give any clarity).

20th July for non essential workers children

Benimar · 04-05-2020 07:26PM

tigger123 wrote: »

Is there any indication for creches being open? Apart from the one or two lines in the Governments plan (that really didn't give any clarity).

Opening on a phased basis on July 20th for kids of non-essential workers.

No detail on what phased means, but obviously hours and/or days will be restricted.

Micky 32 · 04-05-2020 07:26PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

In a couple of months, Ireland isn’t even going to he opened up to its own citizens! (Well, bar the ones who live in Northern Ireland - they have free rein). We have to wait until 20th July to travel more than 20km! Talk of allowing international tourism to start again is ludicrous

Don’t worry, lots of time for the international tourists to plan, no rush. No harm planning for the future either that WILL see the international tourism return without any doubt whatsoever.

Ha Long Bay · 04-05-2020 07:28PM

tigger123 wrote: »

Is there any indication for creches being open? Apart from the one or two lines in the Governments plan (that really didn't give any clarity).

Phase 4 on the 20th July or phase 3 on the 29th June for essential workers.

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/58bc8b-taoiseach-announces-roadmap-for-reopening-society-and-business-and-u/

Jim_Hodge · 04-05-2020 07:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Another genius who's been posting here for a month but still hasn't the first clue of the basics.
Read something other than a message board and educate yourself.

Pardon me Einstein. It still doesn't mean cases won't grow which is the salient point.

I didn't realise the time spent here equals credence.

eagle eye · 04-05-2020 07:33PM

We are two weeks away from Spain's second wave. Any plans made anywhere are dependent on what happens there.

MipMap · 04-05-2020 07:34PM

CV19.jpg

political analyst wrote: »

If the R number in Ireland is below 1, then why won't the government let cafés and restaurants re-open earlier than the date currently planned?

CV19.jpg

If the Ro is 0.9 and we have 10,000 infected people spreading it in the community in 20 months we will have just 1,351 people infected in the community.
If the Ro is 1.3 we will have 1.4 million infected in the community in 20 months - assuming 1 month is a reasonable estimate of how long a person is infectious for.

WoollyRedHat · 04-05-2020 07:36PM

coastwatch wrote: »

I think travel within the EU could be re-started in a couple of months, without the need to isolate, based on the countries achieving an agreed testing standard.
Thats how the EU could re-engage at this stage, after the long silence.

While that would be nice, there is an element of risk, if done too early ans someone fell through the gaps, it could set everything off again.

Although I would support a phased return of travel when it is deemed safe; manageable and we have better testing and increased capacity with quicker turnaround of results e.g. domestic, EU and then international.

timsey tiger · 04-05-2020 07:42PM

MipMap wrote: »

CV19.jpg

CV19.jpg

If the Ro is 0.9 and we have 10,000 infected people spreading it in the community in 20 months we will have just 1,351 people infected in the community.
If the Ro is 1.3 we will have 1.4 million infected in the community in 20 months - assuming 1 month is a reasonable estimate of how long a person is infectious for.

That's in 19 months, you are starting time at 1 month from now instead of 0 months from now.

10,000 * 0.9^20 = 1,216

Xertz · 04-05-2020 07:43PM

Is this for real?

Aer Lingus 8:45am Belfast City to London Heathrow:

https://twitter.com/kellybonner/status/1257323982400831491?s=21

Looks quite full and no social distancing or masks applied at all.

I realise this is an internal flight within UK jurisdiction, even though it's Aer Lingus, but it seems very surprising how easy going it all is.

wadacrack · 04-05-2020 07:43PM

The RO naturally diminishes in time as the virus has passed through the most vulnerable. Viral load clearly plays a role in this. As Children as thought not to carry the disease as well as say Flu. Sweden have not experienced exponential growth and R) below 1 with no lockdown. No exponential increase in deaths. The modelling which is used for the Flu has not transpired with this virus. The unknown is how deadly this virus is within society who are not vulnerable. 0.5 % Death rate with Irish healthcare workers is still quite high however. ICU and ventilation numbers have been way off too and are not a good indicator. Even some serious cases do not require ventilation , the issue of blood clots and heart failure seems to be a concern. The peak in Europe is coming to an end and I think it is likely to be ok with social distancing to supress the virus. Possibly nxt winter could be dangerous period.

Just Saying · 04-05-2020 07:45PM

Stheno wrote: »

I'm wondering if they went with the most drawn out timetable they could? Cillian de Gascun said at the weekend the opening could be accelerated if things went well

And does anyone find it a coincidence the pubs are to open after the last Summer bank holiday?

I think the slow pace of reopening is the scientists trying to get evidence of what each stage does to the R...This would be very useful in terms of knowing how to control a potential second wave in the future...

podgeandrodge · 04-05-2020 07:49PM

MD1990 wrote: »

deaths really going down now in Ireland,Italy,Spain & in the UK

Looks like we are now finally past the peak across Europe.

Even Sweden with no lockdown have not seen huge growth in the last week.

A lot of countries seem to be reaching peaks at a similar time regardless of the extent of their lockdowns.

Frank Bullitt · 04-05-2020 07:54PM

So my uncle died yesterday, non covid-19 related, but now my family can't have a proper send off for a great man.

Yesterday was tough for me, he was my godfather and sitting here in Canada, knowing that there can't be a proper funeral, I can't go home and be with my family, that my cousins who are in Australia and America can't go home and see him off, that is what really hurts.

The mental impact on this whole thing is really starting to have an impact on me. I have been living in Canada for 7 years but I go home frequently. This time though, I can't, and I have no real clue when I can either.

I see a lot of back and forth in this thread about opening up, people having a go at each other over this and that, and so on. Lads and ladies, be good to each other, please. I am clearly in a reflective state right now, so if this post comes across as soppy or conflicting, I do apologise.

My uncle really took an interest in my skill at art from a young age, this has grown into a career as a designer. I can't thank him enough for that, and now he is gone, and I can't say goodbye to him properly. So many families are going through this also, and I feel and grieve for them as well.

Be good to each other through this, and take care.

Rest in peace, Uncle Joey.

Miike · 04-05-2020 07:56PM

Gintonious wrote: »

So my uncle died yesterday, non covid-19 related, but now my family can't have a proper send off for a great man.

Yesterday was tough for me, he was my godfather and sitting here in Canada, knowing that there can't be a proper funeral, I can't go home and be with my family, that my cousins who are in Australia and America can't go home and see him off, that is what really hurts.

The mental impact on this whole thing is really starting to have an impact on me. I have been living in Canada for 7 years but I go home frequently. This time though, I can't, and I have no real clue when I can either.

I see a lot of back and forth in this thread about opening up, people having a go at each other over this and that, and so on. Lads and ladies, be good to each other, please. I am clearly in a reflective state right now, so if this post comes across as soppy or conflicting, I do apologise.

My uncle really took an interest in my skill at art from a young age, this has grown into a career as a designer. I can't thank him enough for that, and now he is gone, and I can't say goodbye to him properly. So many families are going through this also, and I feel and grieve for them as well.

Be good to each other through this, and take care.

Rest in peace, Uncle Joey.

Sorry for your loss G. His memory will certainly live on with you

Frank Bullitt · 04-05-2020 08:00PM

Miike wrote: »

Sorry for your loss G. His memory will certainly live on with you

Thank you Miike, stay safe.

Sam Russell · 04-05-2020 08:00PM

bekker wrote: »

Agreed that there are many obvious benefits, but there are downsides to that type of centralised control. There were good reasons for certain competencies being omitted from various treaties.

Attempting to add-in health would possibly be the fastest way to fracture the already fragile EU. Even simply attempting to establish a central strategic reserve of PPE would run into a wall of political and commercial problems.

Countries are at loggerheads and forming blocks over such a relatively simple issue as equitable treatment of lorry drivers which affects a tiny % of populations. Heath affects the whole population and is a hot button issue in the national politics of most states.

I am not talking about health being a competence. I am talking about Public Health - those measures taken at a macro level to improve the health of the whole population.

The EU already has such competence when it comes to safety of toys, animal health, GMOs, the ecology, and other macro matters. Extending this to Public Health would be a natural progression to allow the EU to promote better outcomes for its citizens.

Note: Health matters are not the same as Public Health matters. Your doctor is concerned with the outcome for you, but Public Health is concerned with the benefit for the whole population - of putting folic acid in the flour to safeguard babies from spina-bifida, for example. Or putting fluoride in the water supply to improve dental health. Or which vaccines should be given to children to protect them from those diseases for which vaccines are available and effective. These are not matters for clinicians who treat individual patients, but have to be prescribed by national governments, or by the EU (if it part of their remit).

If this pandemic teaches us anything, it should be that individual countries are unable to work in isolation and must join forces to combat such threats.

Dyr · 04-05-2020 08:01PM

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FintanYTWalsh/status/1257252935177830402?s=20

Jacinta Ardern thanks her lucky stars her country is not Ireland, the face she makes when she talks about us.

If we'd taken the path New Zealand had we'd be in their fortuitious position that they are now

Of course, when that was suggested at the start of all this, you had a deluge of 24 carat gob****es on here decrying the notion of such measures as pointless and counter productive. They're still proffering up their opinions unhindered.

If there's one thing that has always been the hallmark of the chattering classes in this country its the desire to ape those they consider our betters and look for their approval.

New Home · 04-05-2020 08:01PM

Gintonious wrote: »

So my uncle died yesterday, non covid-19 related, but now my family can't have a proper send off for a great man.

I'm really sorry for the loss of your uncle and for your being so far away from him and your family and not being able to say goodbye properly.

May he rest in peace.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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