Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

iguana · 04-05-2020 11:17AM

Dante7 wrote: »

The Blue Horizons antibody test only needs a pin prick of blood. They say the test is for UK residents only. I wonder could it be sent through parcel motel.

https://bluehorizonbloodtests.co.uk/collections/covid-19-coronavirus-tests

You possibly could get it. But how would you get the blood back to them? Is there currently a reliable courier service that would get it back fast enough?

DevilsHaircut · 04-05-2020 11:20AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It takes time to spread. If it turns out the vast majority don't require hospitalisation which seems to be the case, it's perfectly plausible it was in Ireland slowly spreading until it hits a point where exponential growth suddenly means loads of at risk people started getting it.

There is no reason to think that it would have inundated hospitals at the start. It takes time for people to be able to pass it on and for it to reach a critical level. There is arguably less logic in saying it arrived on some flights and a few weeks later, thousands of people were getting it.. It takes time.

Also, the sections of society that it's spreading among will influence when it becomes 'visible', e.g. among younger people who don't need hospitalisation.

AllGunsBlazing · 04-05-2020 11:25AM

If people actually had covid before Christmas the carnage in care homes would have begun far sooner than it did.

None of you had it before Christmas. Deal with it. Move on.

ChelseaRentBoy · 04-05-2020 11:27AM

Boggles wrote: »

The UK are rolling them out this month apparently, 6-10 pounds and distributed from Amazon and Boots.

We'll probably get them 9-12 months after the pandemic is over.

Not before we announce some tribunal that will take 3 years to complete.

iguana · 04-05-2020 11:32AM

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

If people actually had covid before Christmas the carnage in care homes would have begun far sooner than it did.

None of you had it before Christmas. Deal with it. Move on.

Except someone in Paris did in fact have it before Christmas and I don't believe there was carnage in the care homes there at that point.

Dante7 · 04-05-2020 11:32AM

iguana wrote: »

You possibly could get it. But how would you get the blood back to them? Is there currently a reliable courier service that would get it back fast enough?

There's plenty of next day delivery services to the UK. They'd get it quicker from Dublin than from the Scottish Highlands. It does look like there is a valid antibody test available to anyone here if you're willing to fork out €125.

wakka12 · 04-05-2020 11:33AM

Skynews briefly mentioned it in another article and has no source for the info and when I googled it it only led to one article in the Washington post which is paywalled but anyway a test of 500 random people in the city of kabul, afghanistan showed that 1/3 people were currently infected with the virus

No other info available, but interesting

Worldometers says Afghanistan has performed 11,000 tests and 2700 were positive. It is a high rate of positves but you'd imagine sick people presenting at testing centres would at the very least mirror(but in reality should be significantly higher) the 1/3 infected number that is apparently within the general population

iguana · 04-05-2020 11:34AM

Dante7 wrote: »

There's plenty of next day delivery services to the UK. They'd get it quicker from Dublin than from the Scottish Highlands. It does look like there is a valid antibody test available to anyone here if you're willing to fork out €125.

It would cost a bit more than that by the time you'd factor in couriering, etc. I'll wait a little bit to be sure it doesn't turn out that something is wrong with the testing. But if it seems reliable, I'll very strongly consider it.

coastwatch · 04-05-2020 11:37AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I vaguely remember in the early days of march, maybe around St Patricks day, in Leo's speech, he said there was a covid sick pay. I haven't heard anything about it since. My understanding is if you get sick, or belong to a cluster and need to go home and isolate, there is a covid sick pay.

I think it's different from the covid payment where the payment was paid to those laid off from jobs due to closures.

There is a state paid Covid 19 sick pay scheme, €350 pw, but the person needs a Doctors cert and instructions to self isolate.
I dont think GPs have been seeing anyone reporting symptoms, so not sure if they would issue certs based on phone consultations.
Faced with that hassle, people with symptoms may decide to chance it and continue to work.

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/disability_and_illness/covid19_enhanced_illness_benefit.html

iamwhoiam · 04-05-2020 11:52AM

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

If people actually had covid before Christmas the carnage in care homes would have begun far sooner than it did.

None of you had it before Christmas. Deal with it. Move on.

Are we allowed wonder about it and discuss it or are you the boss of what is discussed ?

mandrake04 · 04-05-2020 11:56AM

iguana wrote: »

It would cost a bit more than that by the time you'd factor in couriering, etc. I'll wait a little bit to be sure it doesn't turn out that something is wrong with the testing. But if it seems reliable, I'll very strongly consider it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/roche-s-covid-19-antibody-test-gets-fda-emergency-use-approval

This test is a Total antibody test, ie IgG and IgM.

The immunoassy pack (100 tests) I heard its about €300

Drumpot · 04-05-2020 11:59AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It takes time to spread. If it turns out the vast majority don't require hospitalisation which seems to be the case, it's perfectly plausible it was in Ireland slowly spreading until it hits a point where exponential growth suddenly means loads of at risk people started getting it.

There is no reason to think that it would have inundated hospitals at the start. It takes time for people to be able to pass it on and for it to reach a critical level. There is arguably less logic in saying it arrived on some flights and a few weeks later, thousands of people were getting it.. It takes time.

That wouldn’t explain how China stopped it by throwing all resources into Wuhan. If it spread as slowing as you say, China would be riddled with it by the time they shut down Wuhan and we would of seen epicentres all over China. And as somebody else said, the carnage in care homes would of been evident much sooner.

I think while this is possible (here earlier then we thought), I’m reluctant to believe it was here pre December. I’d want to see the logic/explanation , from a reputable scientist, of how that could happen. One strain less severe and maybe a second following after perhaps, but while there is no decent sources people can quote I won’t be getting on board this hypothesis.

castletownman · 04-05-2020 12:13PM

Further to my post last night, it wasn't like I wasn't interacting in crowds between Oct-Feb either. In fact I was in the UK twice a couple of weeks apart (once for a wedding, the other at the now epicentre of the virus over there), and had a separate wedding and a break away in Kerry before that. That's not factoring in the fact I work in the tourism industry, where we had record numbers for the last quarter than we ever had before. It's a small museum that requires close interaction on guided tours. Then there is the socialising aspect around Christmas, with a final wedding on NYE, after which I started to get really bad.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-05-2020 12:15PM

The idea of immunity passports still seem on the table.

So many flaws with this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/03/coronavirus-health-passports-for-uk-possible-in-months

Let's take work for example.

So I have never had the virus, would that mean I am excluded from the work place?

Does this mean I have to go out and intentionally get infected, put myself at risk in order to return to work (assuming I couldn't work from home)?

What about the moral hazard for people who followed guidelines preventing themselves becoming and passing on infection?

They are to be excluded from work/travel?

Seems a daft and unworkable concept.

sadie1502 · 04-05-2020 12:21PM

And I work in logistics so had dealings with drivers from all over the continent and also a driver that traveled through the UK to Africa was out there for a few months with people from all over the world. That same driver came back and was on the verge pneumonia and being hospitalised couldn't breath etc was in bed for a few weeks after his return.

Martina1991 · 04-05-2020 12:31PM

Boggles wrote: »

Home antibody tests should be wide spread and affordable in the next few weeks apparently. You should definitely do one.

sadie1502 wrote: »

Will the home testing kits be available soon? I'd definitely get one.

Boggles wrote: »

The UK are rolling them out this month apparently, 6-10 pounds and distributed from Amazon and Boots.

iguana wrote: »

Two British clinics are offering private ELISA antibody tests as of the last few days. I'd happily pay the £100 if there was any way I could access one.

Dante7 wrote: »

There's plenty of next day delivery services to the UK. They'd get it quicker from Dublin than from the Scottish Highlands. It does look like there is a valid antibody test available to anyone here if you're willing to fork out €125.

Any home antibody tests that are available through high street shops are not going to be reliable.

A faint red line on a little cassette isn’t going to tell you very much.

- Firstly the kit has to be stored and handled properly. If it is kept at the wrong temperature, left out for too long, improperly used, or misread then it is useless.

- Secondly we don’t know how much of an immune response people are mounting against the virus. Those who were very ill may have produced a lot of antibodies and would produce a strong reaction on the test strip. Anyone who was asymptomatic may not have produced many antibodies at all and may produce a negative result on a test strip.

- Thirdly, we don’t know how long antibodies remain in the blood stream after infection. They may last a few weeks, months or years. We don’t know. Not enough time has elapsed to determine how long the immune response will last.

- So someone that was infected in January may have recovered by March, and their antibodies may have subsided by July if they have an antibody test.

- Finally, we don’t know if the presence of antibodies results in immunity or prevents re-infection. So there is very little benefit for forking out hundreds of euro “just to see” if you had a virus.

Drumpot · 04-05-2020 12:36PM

sadie1502 wrote: »

And I work in logistics so had dealings with drivers from all over the continent and also a driver that traveled through the UK to Africa was out there for a few months with people from all over the world. That same driver came back and was on the verge pneumonia and being hospitalised couldn't breath etc was in bed for a few weeks after his return.

I had pneumonia January 2019 and was in bits for over 2 months. I had the flu the year before and in both cases it Took me ages to shake it and at times struggled badly. I don’t believe stories like this or spikes in flu/pneumonia cases tells us anything on its own other then people has these illnesses.

I’ve also watched medical videos on COVID19 and what it can do to our body is very different from the flu or pneumonia. Can effect multiple organs, leave long term damage and can lead to blood clotts that can kill people who appear to be recovering. Where is all the evidence of people suffering these conditions back in November or December?

jackboy · 04-05-2020 12:38PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Any home antibody tests that are available through high street shops are not going to be reliable.

A faint red line on a little cassette isn’t going to tell you very much.

- Firstly the kit has to be stored and handled properly. If it is kept at the wrong temperature, left out for too long, improperly used, or misread then it is useless.

- Secondly we don’t know how much of an immune response people are mounting against the virus. Those who were very ill may have produced a lot of antibodies and would produce a strong reaction on the test strip. Anyone who was asymptomatic may not have produced many antibodies at all and may produce a negative result on a test strip.

- Thirdly, we don’t know how long antibodies remain in the blood stream after infection. They may last a few weeks, months or years. We don’t know. Not enough time has elapsed to determine how long the immune response will last.

- So someone that was infected in January may have recovered by March, and their antibodies may have subsided by July if they have an antibody test.

- Finally, we don’t know if the presence of antibodies results in immunity or prevents re-infection. So there is very little benefit for forking out hundreds of euro “just to see” if you had a virus.

Would such a test need FDA or EMA approval? Can an unproven test really be released onto the market?

Martina1991 · 04-05-2020 12:48PM

Stheno wrote: »

Is it the one from Roche that's approved by the EU?
Think that's the only one approved and its 99.8% accurate and 100% specific iirc

mandrake04 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/roche-s-covid-19-antibody-test-gets-fda-emergency-use-approval

This test is a Total antibody test, ie IgG and IgM.
The immunoassy pack (100 tests) I heard its about €300

The tests from Roche or Abbott that claim to be nearly 100% accurate are tests that are only perfromed in a laboratory.
The cost is covered by the HSE.

There have been a few testing platforms given emergency use authorisation in the US. That does not mean they are fit for purpose.

Under section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, the FDA Commissioner may allow unapproved medical products or unapproved uses of approved medical products to be used in an emergency to diagnose, treat, or prevent serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions caused by CBRN threat agents when there are no adequate, approved, and available alternatives.
https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization

It puts the onus on the manufacturer to take responsibility for the tests performance. The manufacturers see it as a green light and sell them here, there and everywhere. The loophole being, no test is 100% accurate so false results will just be shrugged off as outliers and a disclaimer will always say that a positive result should be followed up by laboratory methods. But people get a negative result and off they go.

Drumpot · 04-05-2020 12:51PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWsgbgz5euc

Just posting this for anybody interested, it’s one of the sources I use to keep myself up to date. Dr Hanson also does videos on medcram but this video is from Dr Seheult who is the founder of the YouTube channel which is for medical students. He is a Pulmonary, critical care and sleep specialist. Pulmonologist and lots of other credentials that are highlighted in the first minute or so of this video.

Topics include: immunity, COVID-19 testing, treatment trials (including remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, and ivermectin), ICU interventions and ventilation, vascular complications (stroke, MI, PE), NSAIDS, the BCG vaccine, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Quercetin, how SARS-CoV-2 infects, COVID 19 prevention, ACE inhibitors, why children typically get a mild infection, what to expect in coming months, and much more.

This video was like a great update of what the medical profession are learning about the virus. Interestingly he thinks nurtrution and lifestyle may play a massive role on how we manage this virus as a population without a vaccine. My wife and I have been taking VIT C, D And Zinc for months now and he confirms that he thinks there is a definite benefit to this. Obesity may be worse then smoking or having lung conditions when you get COVID19.

Very technical stuff (a lot I didn’t understand) from maybe minute 2-15 but after that some really good information and analysis along with the links to where the research was gotten. Good Q&A at the end aswell.

mandrake04 · 04-05-2020 12:51PM

jackboy wrote: »

Would such a test need FDA or EMA approval? Can an unproven test really be released onto the market?

You can if you have a disclaimer like RUO, Research use only.

Many of the early tests were originally RUOs.

Actually nothing has had FDA approval, most tests have only have been granted EUAs after a review. Full FDA approval can take years, we live in extraordinary times.

Its a bit of a mine field, I wouldn't be spending big money on an Antibody test. The real cost is only a few quid to the lab, although you need the Analyser to run them on. Private labs like Medlab in Sandyford would probably do them if you got a referral from doctor.

juno10353 · 04-05-2020 12:54PM

Death levels in many countries, including Ireland, at normal level for this time of year.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Martina1991 · 04-05-2020 01:02PM

Wombatman wrote: »

When they are announcing the number of positive cases each day, it would helpful if they announced the number of corresponding negatives, which would give the total number of tests for that day (OK maybe add inconclusives too).

On Tuesdays Cillian DeGascun is at the briefing to give information on the number of tests carried out each week.

Last Tuesday he said there was 41,470 tests processed in the previous week.

5,335 of those were positive, giving a positivity rate of 12.9%.

87.1% tests carried out last week were negative.

bekker · 04-05-2020 01:05PM

juno10353 wrote: »

Death levels in many countries, including Ireland, at normal level for this time of year.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Possibly you missed this...

'Note on data from Ireland
In Ireland, as a result of very significant delays in death registrations during March and April 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, weekly z-scores of excess all-cause mortality do not reflect current COVID-19 (and non-COVID-19) excess mortality in Ireland. Further data on notified COVID-19 deaths in Ireland are available on the hpsc.ie website.'

https://euromomo.eu/uploads/images/pooled-all-ages-2020-17.jpg

iguana · 04-05-2020 01:05PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

A faint red line on a little cassette isn’t going to tell you very much.

ELISA tests aren't cassette tests.

jobeenfitz · 04-05-2020 01:08PM

Xertz wrote: »

It clearly isn't as the data that it's producing is extremely flawed.

If you turned this stuff up in the context of a marketing analysis you'd be fired. I'm not kidding.

There has been continuous attempts to extrapolate details of community spread from this data and it makes no sense whatsoever.

Also, how is is catching 'super spreaders' ?

The people who it's testing are people who have symptoms and are already self isolating in probably 99% of cases, so they're not spreading anything. The super spreaders are people who are mildly or asymptomatic and they're not being tested at all.

Maybe this is the plan, some form of covert herd immunity while most of the vulnerable are cocooning?

expectationlost · 04-05-2020 01:10PM

"Outbreaks in private houses double in a week" or the DOH contract tracers are using uncertainties to say its private houses rather then meat plants, or other workplaces? https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-outbreaks-in-private-houses-double-in-a-week-but-icu-numbers-stable-1.4244419 Holohan seems to favour being able to say we can't be certain or for privacy reason we can't say, where are these people picking up covid?

stats https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

MD1990 · 04-05-2020 01:15PM

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWsgbgz5euc

Just posting this for anybody interested, it’s one of the sources I use to keep myself up to date. Dr Hanson also does videos on medcram but this video is from Dr Seheult who is the founder of the YouTube channel which is for medical students. He is a Pulmonary, critical care and sleep specialist. Pulmonologist and lots of other credentials that are highlighted in the first minute or so of this video.

Topics include: immunity, COVID-19 testing, treatment trials (including remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, and ivermectin), ICU interventions and ventilation, vascular complications (stroke, MI, PE), NSAIDS, the BCG vaccine, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Quercetin, how SARS-CoV-2 infects, COVID 19 prevention, ACE inhibitors, why children typically get a mild infection, what to expect in coming months, and much more.

This video was like a great update of what the medical profession are learning about the virus. Interestingly he thinks nurtrution and lifestyle may play a massive role on how we manage this virus as a population without a vaccine. My wife and I have been taking VIT C, D And Zinc for months now and he confirms that he thinks there is a definite benefit to this. Obesity may be worse then smoking or having lung conditions when you get COVID19.

Very technical stuff (a lot I didn’t understand) from maybe minute 2-15 but after that some really good information and analysis along with the links to where the research was gotten. Good Q&A at the end aswell.

it isnt interesting . It is common sense that nutrition would help.

But it seems even more important to have low body fat with this virus.
I think this is why China had most likely much less deaths the the US for example.

I do not know why there is not a social media campaign for better nutrition.
Maybe because storees would lose out if people consumed less food & had better nutrition.

There is ads to get people to stop smoking but nothing about nutrition with so much food now proccessed & unhealthy.

Martina1991 · 04-05-2020 01:20PM

iguana wrote: »

ELISA tests aren't cassette tests.

I was referring to the shop bought tests that other posters were mentioning, like the one on the Claire Byrne show.

I still wouldn't spend money on an antibody test that has limited use when there is a lot we don't know about the immune repsonse to this virus.

iguana · 04-05-2020 01:30PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

I still wouldn't spend money on an antibody test that has limited use when there is a lot we don't know about the immune repsonse to this virus.

That's maybe easier to say if you haven't been sick for nearly 7 weeks with an illness that's badly effecting your breathing. It's a massively isolating feeling to be sick during a pandemic with an illness that keeps coming back whenever it seems to let up but that you don't know what it actually is. Sure the more I learn, the more convinced I am that it is it, as more and more people are reporting the same (hopefully) post-viral inflammation complications that I'm having. Up until that started being reported I was questioning my sanity at times.

I thankfully do know a degree of what isn't wrong, no sign of heart or lung damage, bacterial infection or blood clot. But I do want to know for sure what is wrong with me.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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