Share Picks 2020

Mantis Toboggan · 03-05-2020 05:35PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok what sectors do you think will be worst hit and what sectors could actually be improved by Covid.

For me

worst - cruise liners

best - healthcare (it's a bit wide I know) but I think all governments will want to beef up spending in this area.

Worst probably tourism and associated products.

Best probably technology specifically the FAAMG stocks.

Bob24 · 03-05-2020 07:51PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok what sectors do you think will be worst hit and what sectors could actually be improved by Covid.

For me

worst - cruise liners

best - healthcare (it's a bit wide I know) but I think all governments will want to beef up spending in this area.

Agree with the areas you listed and most of those quoted the previous posts, so to add something maybe a little different I would also quote the gold mining industry as a great winner (especially royalty and streaming companies which are a lot less exposed to operational risks of running mines while having a constant and diversified flow of cash or cheap gold coming to them for years to come with very low operational costs; mining companies are a little more risky as they aren't always well managed and can lose money even when gold does well).

Reason for the above: money printing was already strong before Covid but with the debt all countries are accumulating as their economies are in standstill due to the virus, fiats currency will debase and the price of gold go up. Those who are quite literally sitting on a goldmine will benefit.

ChuckieEgg · 03-05-2020 09:10PM

Not convinced by all these recommendations in the faang+m. For me I am already invested in them since I have a pension. Every pension fund, Global fund, growth fund etc all has them. I just don't see the share price growth, and if anything we might get a failure from one of them in the future. (See how much of a "byte" tiktok has taken from the social media market)
I wouldn't be jumping into Gold or miners either, if anything I expect the US dolar to get a lot stronger this year. I'm combing over all the airlines, holiday operators and travel industry looking for the good ones. It would be no harm to have cash sitting in your broker account ready as these battered stocks would get an almighty rally if a treatment/vaccine for covid-19 is found.

Bob24 · 03-05-2020 09:46PM

ChuckieEgg wrote: »

I wouldn't be jumping into Gold or miners either, if anything I expect the US dolar to get a lot stronger this year.

Stronger vs most other currencies, yes. But do you also expect it to get stronger vs gold and why?

ChuckieEgg · 03-05-2020 10:06PM

If the Fed keeps pumping dollars into the markets then stocks is the place to be for now not Gold. Not saying Gold will not do well in the future, but for now I expect it to run in tandum with the dollar, might even get manipulated down once everything cools off.
Gold is a funny one, highly manipulated. I would hazard a guess that the price of physical Gold could be higher than the price for paper Gold. I know of I was holding physical I'd be slow to sell it for under 2k/ounce, but I'm not a Gold bug and don't delve too much into it.

Bob24 · 03-05-2020 10:49PM

ChuckieEgg wrote: »

If the Fed keeps pumping dollars into the markets then stocks is the place to be for now not Gold. Not saying Gold will not do well in the future, but for now I expect it to run in tandum with the dollar, might even get manipulated down once everything cools off.
Gold is a funny one, highly manipulated. I would hazard a guess that the price of physical Gold could be higher than the price for paper Gold. I know of I was holding physical I'd be slow to sell it for under 2k/ounce, but I'm not a Gold bug and don't delve too much into it.

Sure money printing can inflate stock prices (as well as other assets), but it also increases the price/demand for gold.

See what the largest streaming company has been doing this year: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNV/

Share price is up 30% YTD - pretty good performance vs the rest of the market to say the least (Wheaton Precious Metals is similar and Royal Rold is flat YTD which still is much better than the overall market, so all of the “big 3” streamers are beating the market).

Mach 3 · 04-05-2020 12:04AM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok what sectors do you think will be worst hit and what sectors could actually be improved by Covid.

For me

worst - cruise liners

best - healthcare (it's a bit wide I know) but I think all governments will want to beef up spending in this area.

Don't know, but this is what is happening at the moment.

bizidea · 04-05-2020 01:20AM

My thinking is trump will start an economic war with china over the outbreak of the virus. so if you look for products or materials that china has control over the supplies of and find companies outside of china that the world will need to supply these products of materials you might be on a winner.
I'm thinking metals or rare minerals that are used in electronics or maybe electric vehicles anyone any thoughts.

voluntary · 04-05-2020 07:17AM

Did you notice the narrative changing? From bloom to gloom.

voluntary · 04-05-2020 07:36AM

Just looked at my pension fund. MSFT, fb, amzn... Its up 3% in the last 12 months!

I think buying these winning companies today is like not taking advantage of the pandemic at all. Buy high sell high strategy may work, but waste such an opportunity like pandemic?

Learn from Warren Buffet and make sure to have tons of cash to deploy it when "there's a blood on the streets".

drunkmonkey · 04-05-2020 08:12AM

voluntary wrote: »

Did you notice the narrative changing? From bloom to gloom.

These guys have a 100% accurate antibodies test ready to go, wonder will it see a jump today https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rog?countrycode=ch

bilbot79 · 04-05-2020 09:43AM

bizidea wrote: »

My thinking is trump will start an economic war with china over the outbreak of the virus. so if you look for products or materials that china has control over the supplies of and find companies outside of china that the world will need to supply these products of materials you might be on a winner.
I'm thinking metals or rare minerals that are used in electronics or maybe electric vehicles anyone any thoughts.

Palladium is in a bubble. It's in very short supply at the moment but will soon become unnecessary in car manufacture since electrics don't have catalytic converters. Interesting one to short

bizidea · 04-05-2020 09:49AM

bilbot79 wrote: »

Palladium is in a bubble. It's in very short supply at the moment but will soon become unnecessary in car manufacture since electrics don't have catalytic converters. Interesting one to short

I was looking at lithium for electric vehicle batteries demand has to rise. cesium is another one its 100% controlled by china

ebayissues · 04-05-2020 10:00AM

How did you get this on BB? As in what was the BBG command?

Mach 3 wrote: »

Don't know, but this is what is happening at the moment.

hottipper · 04-05-2020 10:12AM

voluntary wrote: »

Did you notice the narrative changing? From bloom to gloom.

yeah sell the reopening
2570 & 2475 are the ranges i'm looking at, kinda hope it breaks the first one but lets see when we get there.

voluntary · 04-05-2020 10:34AM

Call me mad but I'm looking for S&P to drop below 1900 before opening the purse. I may catch some OIL nad oversold European emerging markets stocks in the meantime, but I'm not touching American stocks unless it badly crashes.

Take Your Pants Off · 04-05-2020 12:29PM

Lol I'm getting absolutely nailed on the airlines stocks. I had bought UAL and LUV early last week. Down 100 quid between the two of them. I have BA aswell, but I ain't too concerned with them, they should wether it. I'm planning to sell the airlines, too much risky play with them, might buy Airbus at the dip though.

voluntary · 04-05-2020 12:36PM

Rare example of some common sense.

Shedite27 · 04-05-2020 02:33PM

voluntary wrote: »

Call me mad but I'm looking for S&P to drop below 1900 before opening the purse. I may catch some OIL nad oversold European emerging markets stocks in the meantime, but I'm not touching American stocks unless it badly crashes.

What would it take for you to have confidence in the prices? I don't think it will drop below 2300 (and that's from someone with a bit of cash ready to go), so just wondering if it's a case that you're done with US shares unless it goes below 2000, or whether 1, 3, 6 months of 2600+ is what you're looking for? Or is there some other indicator?

Also, I definitely agree the European Shares are where the value is at the moment, but they just seem to continue to crash every time I look at them. Volkswagon down 6% again today, Unilever down 3%, Ericcson down 4%

codrulz · 04-05-2020 03:02PM

In EuroNav and Scorpio Tankers for this week. Up a nice bit already, will move up stops soon.

Mad_maxx · 04-05-2020 03:26PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

What would it take for you to have confidence in the prices? I don't think it will drop below 2300 (and that's from someone with a bit of cash ready to go), so just wondering if it's a case that you're done with US shares unless it goes below 2000, or whether 1, 3, 6 months of 2600+ is what you're looking for? Or is there some other indicator?

Also, I definitely agree the European Shares are where the value is at the moment, but they just seem to continue to crash every time I look at them. Volkswagon down 6% again today, Unilever down 3%, Ericcson down 4%

the ECB is not anywhere near as ready to step in as the FED when it comes to supporting markets , europe is always cheaper and always follows , if the USA is going down , doesnt matter how cheap europe is , europe is unable to go up on its own

99nsr125 · 04-05-2020 07:27PM

Bought some Allianz on the DAX today
They go ex-dividend on the 6th, fell by 3.3% as did all the DAX.

Dividend is 5.7% so if you're looking for something mainstream have a look

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALV.DE?p=ALV.DE&.tsrc=fin-srch

voluntary · 04-05-2020 07:42PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

What would it take for you to have confidence in the prices? I don't think it will drop below 2300 (and that's from someone with a bit of cash ready to go), so just wondering if it's a case that you're done with US shares unless it goes below 2000, or whether 1, 3, 6 months of 2600+ is what you're looking for? Or is there some other indicator?

Also, I definitely agree the European Shares are where the value is at the moment, but they just seem to continue to crash every time I look at them. Volkswagon down 6% again today, Unilever down 3%, Ericcson down 4%

Buffet told investors "never sell America" as the last 200+ years of Country's history proved its strengths. It's hard to argue with 200 years, however, I think the world's powers are shifting, and looking at the current valuations in the US vs valuations in EU, the US ones are much higher, so investors pay a large premium for US location at the moment.

Feb 2016 - S&P went below 1900 points.
I just don't think the market today is worth more than in 2016.
Taking a step back and looking from some perspective, the drop we've seen so far is tiny. S&P only lost it's peak and should have lost its shoulders too.

Look at 2008, that was a wipeout. March 2020 - not really.

It's all gamble anyways. I may be wrong but I'm not buying stocks just yet.

Shedite27 · 04-05-2020 08:47PM

voluntary wrote: »

Buffet told investors "never sell America" as the last 200+ years of Country's history proved its strengths. It's hard to argue with 200 years, however, I think the world's powers are shifting, and looking at the current valuations in the US vs valuations in EU, the US ones are much higher, so investors pay a large premium for US location at the moment.
Feb 2016 - S&P went below 1900 points.
I just don't think the market today is worth more than in 2016.
Taking a step back and looking from some perspective, the drop we've seen so far is tiny. S&P only lost it's peak and should have lost its shoulders too.

Look at 2008, that was a wipeout. March 2020 - not really.

It's all gamble anyways. I may be wrong but I'm not buying stocks just yet.

Yeah it's a hard one to figure out. We've never had so much of a stop to the economy, followed by fed intervention more than we've ever seen before. I don't think anyone can really figure out the impact of each force on each other, and where it will end up.

I see a low of about 2600, a drop to that would give me confidence to start buying again.

voluntary · 04-05-2020 08:59PM

99nsr125 wrote: »

Bought some Allianz on the DAX today
They go ex-dividend on the 6th, fell by 3.3% as did all the DAX.

Dividend is 5.7% so if you're looking for something mainstream have a look

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALV.DE?p=ALV.DE&.tsrc=fin-srch

You buy stock pre-dividend, to get 5.7% dividend which, being Irish tax resident, you pay 40% tax on it, then you end up with a stock with 5.7% value cut off.

I'd rather sell before dividend cut-off date and re-buy post dividend, to avoid the unnecessary exchequer bribe.

99nsr125 · 04-05-2020 11:50PM

voluntary wrote: »

You buy stock pre-dividend, to get 5.7% dividend which, being Irish tax resident, you pay 40% tax on it, then you end up with a stock with 5.7% value cut off.

I'd rather sell before dividend cut-off date and re-buy post dividend, to avoid the unnecessary exchequer bribe.

Yeah I know, taxes eh if only we didn't have to pay :-)

voluntary · 05-05-2020 08:16AM

Being a private Irish tax resident you either avoid dividend-paying stocks or sell them before the dividend cut-off point and re-purchase (assuming you want to keep the stock long term). Irish Revenue taxes dividends too much to make any reasonable use of them if you're a regular Joe.

The same applies to large special dividends paid occasionally by US-based companies. Such dividends are crafted with US tax residents in mind as US tax residents have special rules on special (once-off) dividends and pay very little taxes, while Irish tax residents are being charged the full extent of the income tax.

In an extreme situation that a US-based company decides to cease to exist, sell all its assets and distribute cash proceedings to its shareholders, you're going to be charged 40% on these, even though at the same time you make no capital gains, so effectively you close your investment at 40% unrecoverable loss!

It's mad, but this is Ireland. A great place for large corporations, but a pain for a regular taxpayer

.

Mantis Toboggan · 05-05-2020 08:33AM

Why would you not want the dividends even if you are paying tax on them?

I got a decent dividend payment recently and only paid 25% dividend withholding tax?

voluntary · 05-05-2020 08:35AM

Also, if you're super lucky one day and make some excellent trade, the company you invest in sky rockets, get the f...k out of this country ASAP, otherwise you'll be charged 33% capital gains tax on cashing out!

Shedite27 · 05-05-2020 08:35AM

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Why would you not want the dividends even if you are paying tax on them?

I got a decent dividend payment recently and only paid 25% dividend withholding tax?

Yeah I was about to say, it's income in the end of the day. I don't specifically look for dividend paying stocks, but take the 60% of it I get when I get it.

Share Picks 2020

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