Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkW2qD6gjzI

stephenjmcd wrote: »

In today's independent
"Minutes from the National Public Health Emergency Team reveal a lookback at nursing home records indicated the coronavirus was found in a resident around a week before the first official case here on February 29. It signals the virus was circulating earlier than believed."

Nothing like a great cover up job.

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Nothing like a great cover up job.

How on earth does that constitute a cover up?

Maestro85 wrote: »

Forgive me for jumping straight into the thread with this (I normally read back a bit to catch up) but I'd be interested to hear peoples thoughts on this.

I was speaking to the commercial manager of the tourism site I work in this evening and her take on this was that we'd be open in May. We got a few thousand a day this time last year (an example of the numbers I am talking about). I gave her my take on it but correct me if I am wrong. Commerical manager was upset with me for pointing out these 3 things.

1 - 20km travel restrictions will only be lifted on June 8th
2 - For May, you can only deal with clients who are within 5km of your business as they cannot travel to you any further
3 - Stage 2 we can deal with hyper local customers and Stage 4 (20 July) is when domestic tourism can really restart


Received an email from the big chief 2 hours ago where she was tearing me a new h*le for being negative.....


addendum - apparently the CM jumped the shark and sent out emails to trade companies.

Addendum 2 - Lucky to still have a job in these strange times but this reminds me why I hate it.

Let them at it and take the pay. If they were smart, they'd have the company in deep hibernation with you all on reduced hours or worse. But with what you describe they are burning through cash, so I would prepare for looking for a new job before long.

bekker wrote: »

Not unless you extrapolate wildly from,

Disease indicators
1. Trajectory in incidence of disease
2. Trajectory in number of cases and clusters in residential healthcare
settings
3. Trajectory in number of deaths
4.Hospitalisation and ICU occupancy
5. Programme to consistently sample, test and contact trace.
* and other criteria as may arise in the future.

but no direct reference to antibody testing as such.

In my opinion, that is a down the line issue, they finally appear to be getting the testing sorted. Next step is getting the contact tracing sorted.

If you look at the proportion of cases that are acquired through "community transmission" (as in we don't know where these people picked up the virus), it is is still in the 60s.

The whole point in testing is so that we can find the diagnosed cases and isolate then to stop the spread, but with out contact tracing we can't do this effectively.

We are ill served by our journalists, who seem wholly out of their dept, asking endless questions, about exact figures quoted, figures that are only an initial number due to delays in reporting etc.

They focus on numbers, on numbers like, icu occupancy, as if there is a magic number here, where if we drop below this we could open everything up. When in fact, this number will vary with other statistics.

Even if the new cases were high, but were within existing clusters, ie very low "community transmission", we'd be in a better position, as we could work on better controls within these clusters.

With a high level of "community transmission", we will remain in an endless game of whack a mole.

A while back they said community transmission was virtually zero, but they have not repeated this and with the cumulative figure not falling it cannot be near zero. The journos are not asking about this.

Some people on here suggest thet it is the care homes that are keeping this high, but this cannot be the case since a preponderance of the cases in care homes are in clusters.

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Regarding the meat factory outbreaks

Surely are clusters but they then in turn contribute to community spread

Dawn Meats at least had the good sense to close after 4 reported cases.

How in the name of god those fools in Roscrea continued and actually still continue is beyond belief.

They stated that those infected are in self isolation in line with HSE guidelines.

The HSE would want to be making a clear statement to these essential workplaces that If you get 5/10/20 cases that you shut the f**king doors immediately for 21 days minimum to try and control the outbreak.

It’s no good isolating those that have it while it spreads like wildfire through the factory.

This is the problem with the whole lockdown and essential workplaces. Apart from hospitals and care facilities there has to be a point where operations must cease.

Employers will keep going indefinitely as it’s all about the numbers to them. Someone needs to protect the workers.

Assuming, that these are essential jobs and assuming that we are not using all our testing capacity else where, they should all be tested and tested again a week later. Maybe then they could stay open, possibly with a reduced capacity to maintain social distancing.

Onesea wrote: »

How are people gaugung success on a hand picked guessed number, it's pie in the sky guessing. There are no new cases simply those they uncover when they test a number of people.

If that is so why is the cumulative "community transmission" not falling? It's actually rising up to 66% now.

Gael23 wrote: »

My grandparents are 27km away I guess there’s some tolerance for that

Ye could meet where the circles intersect.

A ∩ B

Gael23 wrote: »

My grandparents are 27km away I guess there’s some tolerance for that

presume it's as the crow flies so if 27 by road probably well within it

stephenjmcd wrote: »

In today's independent
"Minutes from the National Public Health Emergency Team reveal a lookback at nursing home records indicated the coronavirus was found in a resident around a week before the first official case here on February 29. It signals the virus was circulating earlier than believed."

Five days after the 29th, Holohan was telling us that the risk of contracting the virus here in Ireland was "extremely low".

On the gov.ie site they have a bar chart, that shows the age profile of the cases. The first five bars (10 year bands) have a lower cumulative total than the last and biggest bar 65+.

One could wonder why the first 3 groups with very low numbers are not joined together, to allow the 65+ group to be split into 65-75, 57-85 and 85+. I suspect each of these would have greater numbers than the first three combined.

ICU now has less than 100 Covid patients for the first time in a month. 99 confirmed cases in ICU across the country as of last night.