The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

LuckyLloyd · 30-04-2020 08:47AM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/revealed-the-inside-story-of-uk-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis

This article authoritatively traces the government reaction and puts the herd immunity in the context of a comprehensive timeline. I read this after previously reading the Sunday Times piece and I wonder now that the death toll approaches 50k: who's going to jail when this is all over?

Peregrinus · 30-04-2020 08:50AM

Enzokk wrote: »

So according to this there are less deaths in the community due to pollution as there are less cars on the road.

Clean air in Europe during lockdown ‘leads to 11,000 fewer deaths’

It estimates that 1752 deaths in the UK has been avoided due to less pollution in the air. But the excess deaths has increased, so this will need to be taken into account when looking at excess death figures.

This is not just a UK only phenomenon, it will be true all over Europe where restrictions have been put in place. The deaths from Covid-19 will be higher if you look at excess deaths as other deaths will surely be down during this period.

Sure. The excess deaths figure will net out all the effects of the pandemic, positive and negative. It's strange to think of the pandemic having positive effects, but it does - You've pointed to the reduction in pollution-related deaths; there will also be a reduction in traffic-related deaths (because we are spending less time on the roads).

But there will also be increases in deaths not directly related to CV-19. There are widespread reports, for example, of people not attending doctors or hospitals for diagnostic or therapeutic procedures for all sorts of conditions, either because they assume the medical services are overstretched and they don't want to burden them further, or because they are afraid of catching CV-19 if they go to a doctor's surgery or a hospital. This will result in some people dying from conditions that would otherwise have been diagnosed/treated successfully. Or there will be people whose non-CV illnesses were treated less intensively or effectively than they would have been because personnel, beds, resources were consumed by treating pandemic victims; some of those will die.
Etc, etc.

The excess deaths figure balances all these factors out and delivers a net number of extra deaths that, we can reasonably say, would not have occurred but for the pandemic. The policy objective of all governments that aren't actually psychopathic is to keep that figure as low as possible, and the figure - when it is known - will be used to make judgments about how effectively various governments have been in pursying that policy. That's not entirely fair, since of course factors other than government policy will affect how badly different communities are hit by the pandemic.

S.M.B. · 30-04-2020 08:54AM

THE SPECTATOR - Boris has found a path out of lockdown – but it won’t be smooth - The government is adopting the South Korean approachh

This article gives me some hope for the future even if it does brush over some of the recent failings. Yes, it's clear that Asian countries were better prepared for this pandemic but the UK introducing unique measures like a lone wolf will prove (has already proven?) to be very costly.

Joe_ Public · 30-04-2020 08:58AM

It's counterintuitive but deaths on the road in ireland have actually increased quite alarmingly. Likely down to more cyclists, pedestrians on roads/footpaths and drivers not obeying speed signs in built up areas. Was discussed on yesterdays drivetime. Dont know if its the same in the uk.

In other news, it is believed there will be a significant spike in cancer deaths over the next year because of urgent treatments not been sought or cancelled due to the pandemic.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/29/18000-people-die-cancer-coronavirus-12625574/

S.M.B. · 30-04-2020 09:15AM

UK (or certainly London) road deaths are down but nowhere near the drop in numbers you would expect given the decrease in road traffic. The speeding appears to be the main factor, some crazy numbers being bandied about.

theological · 30-04-2020 09:20AM

There's an interesting article in The Spectator about the PM's strategy to ending the lockdown.

Ever since Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital on 5 April, the government has been in a holding pattern. No big decision could be taken without the Prime Minister, but he was in no position to make one. He is now back at work, though, and has a plan for what to do next. Put simply, it is to drive the coronavirus transmission rate — the reproduction number, or ‘R’, which shows the expected number of infections directly generated by one case — down as low as possible and then stay on top of it through a ‘track, trace and test’ approach. In other words, the government is going to go South Korean on the virus.

...

The bad news is that this approach means that next week’s review of the lockdown will lead only to the mildest of easing. I am told that what relaxation there will be will mostly concern outdoor activities. (Though it is worth remembering that there is more flex in the current guidelines than is generally realised. Anyone can go to work, for instance, if they can’t work from home.) Schools in England are likely not to return until after half-term. Next week’s review will, according to one of those involved, be about a ‘timeline for when we can do things’ rather than an opportunity to do them straight away.

Don't expect much next Thursday. It'll be interesting to see what the PM says at the briefing today.

Ah I see SMB got there before me

wadacrack · 30-04-2020 09:29AM

Obesity is a big risk factor

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/197216/being-male-overweight-lead-more-serious/

Seth Brundle · 30-04-2020 09:43AM

theological wrote: »

There's an interesting article in The Spectator about the PM's strategy to ending the lockdown.

Ever since Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital on 5 April, the government has been in a holding pattern. No big decision could be taken without the Prime Minister, but he was in no position to make one. He is now back at work, though, and has a plan for what to do next. Put simply, it is to drive the coronavirus transmission rate — the reproduction number, or ‘R’, which shows the expected number of infections directly generated by one case — down as low as possible and then stay on top of it through a ‘track, trace and test’ approach. In other words, the government is going to go South Korean on the virus.

...

The bad news is that this approach means that next week’s review of the lockdown will lead only to the mildest of easing. I am told that what relaxation there will be will mostly concern outdoor activities. (Though it is worth remembering that there is more flex in the current guidelines than is generally realised. Anyone can go to work, for instance, if they can’t work from home.) Schools in England are likely not to return until after half-term. Next week’s review will, according to one of those involved, be about a ‘timeline for when we can do things’ rather than an opportunity to do them straight away.

Don't expect much next Thursday. It'll be interesting to see what the PM says at the briefing today.

Ah I see SMB got there before me

This approach of reducing the reproduction rate is the recommended approach and used by most countries. The use of "track, trace and test" has been pushed by the likes of the WHO from early on.
Well done to the British government for doing what most countries have been doing for some time now :rolleyes:

VinLieger · 30-04-2020 09:47AM

theological wrote: »

There's an interesting article in The Spectator about the PM's strategy to ending the lockdown.

Don't expect much next Thursday. It'll be interesting to see what the PM says at the briefing today.

Ah I see SMB got there before me

I find it interesting the article uses a gung ho phrase like "going to go south korean on the virus" as if this is some grand new revelation of how things should be done.

Multiple other countries including Ireland have been employing this exact approach since early March and they were just as unprepared as the UK to shift gears into following this method.

Basically the claim in the article that it is only suddenly now they can start applying the test track and trace approach is an out and out lie. They should have been doing it from the beginning and the final line in the article is woefully missing the point.

The question being asked shouldnt be whether this is the right approach, it should be why this wasn't implemented from the beginning and how many needless deaths were caused as a result of the nearly 2 months delay.

robinph · 30-04-2020 09:53AM

Enzokk wrote: »

So according to this there are less deaths in the community due to pollution as there are less cars on the road.

Clean air in Europe during lockdown ‘leads to 11,000 fewer deaths’

The improvement in air quality over the past month of the coronavirus lockdown has led to 11,000 fewer deaths from pollution in the UK and elsewhere in Europe, a study has revealed.

Sharp falls in road traffic and industrial emissions have also resulted in 1.3m fewer days of work absence, 6,000 fewer children developing asthma, 1,900 avoided emergency room visits and 600 fewer preterm births, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

It estimates that 1752 deaths in the UK has been avoided due to less pollution in the air. But the excess deaths has increased, so this will need to be taken into account when looking at excess death figures.

This is not just a UK only phenomenon, it will be true all over Europe where restrictions have been put in place. The deaths from Covid-19 will be higher if you look at excess deaths as other deaths will surely be down during this period.

I don't buy that. It's just that 6000 kids have not been to see their GP to be diagnosed with asthma yet because their symptoms have been relived by not being out in polluted streets for the last few weeks. Once the traffic comes back then their symptoms will come back and they will be back to see the GP and get diagnosed.

They can only be removed from the list of future asthmatics if cars don't return to the streets.

I see sheep · 30-04-2020 10:02AM

Anecdotally (but from 2 different sources, one is a nurse, one is someone whose parent is in one of the care homes) I've been told care homes (even ones with no Covid infections) are being sent recovering Covid patients and then it's spreading through the care homes. Seems absolutely crazy and a real scandal if true.

theological · 30-04-2020 10:07AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

This approach of reducing the reproduction rate is the recommended approach and used by most countries. The use of "track, trace and test" has been pushed by the likes of the WHO from early on.
Well done to the British government for doing what most countries have been doing for some time now :rolleyes:

I find the article interesting because I live in Britain and this directly has an impact on what my immediate future will look like.

I agree that it is less interesting if you're commenting from Ireland to take every opportunity to criticise the British government despite the fact that the approaches in both jurisdictions aren't massively different and weren't massively different.

Each to their own though.

Joe_ Public · 30-04-2020 10:08AM

I see sheep wrote: »

Anecdotally (but from 2 different sources, one is a nurse, one is someone whose parent is in one of the care homes) I've been told care homes (even ones with no Covid infections) are being sent recovering Covid patients and then it's spreading through the care homes. Seems absolutely crazy and a real scandal if true.

Well, it wouldn't be all that surprising as the official government policy was always to keep as many care home residents out of hospital as possible. I'm paraphrasing but the line was that covid-19 patients could be treated quite easily in care homes without any difficulty. And all possibly because government ministers were desperate to be able to go to briefings and say, look at all the spare nhs capacity we have. What a brilliant job we're doing.

Seth Brundle · 30-04-2020 10:17AM

theological wrote: »

I find the article interesting because I live in Britain and this directly has an impact on what my immediate future will look like.

I agree that it is less interesting if you're commenting from Ireland to take every opportunity to criticise the British government despite the fact that the approaches in both jurisdictions aren't massively different and weren't massively different.

Each to their own though.

I have a complete right to criticise the British government for its failures given that I have family in the UK who are affected by this virus. Furthermore, my brother in law is a respiratory consultant who has to deal with the effects of the decisions (or lack of!) made by HMG.
As for the response by the British government, it is quite different to that of the Irish government which is why they are now heading for 50000 deaths as a result of the virus.
Read that number again.
Almost fifty thousand people dead.
Almost fifty thousand families mourning.
And you think that by Boris now choosing to follow the advice recommended by the WHO at the end of January, Britain is being looked after and your future is safe?
There are none so blind as those who will not see! :rolleyes:

Professor Moriarty · 30-04-2020 10:39AM

Great to see the Tories continuing to average 50% in the polls throughout the pandemic and their lethal incompetence. If there were a GE tomorrow, they'd get another landslide victory. God Save The Queen. I suppose.

Professor Moriarty · 30-04-2020 10:39AM

Great to see the Tories continuing to average 50% in the polls throughout the pandemic and their lethal incompetence. If there were a GE tomorrow, they'd get another landslide victory. God Save The Queen. I suppose.

VinLieger · 30-04-2020 10:46AM

theological wrote: »

I find the article interesting because I live in Britain and this directly has an impact on what my immediate future will look like.

I agree that it is less interesting if you're commenting from Ireland to take every opportunity to criticise the British government despite the fact that the approaches in both jurisdictions aren't massively different and weren't massively different.

Each to their own though.

What are you talking about? Who said the article wasnt interesting?

Also does it need to be repeated again for the nth time that many Irish people and posters on here have family and friends in the UK so have every right to critique their shambolic approach?

Also the approach the UK is talking about taking is the exact approach Ireland, and many other countries, have been implementing since early March, while the UK decided to stop contact tracing and community testing on the 12th of March.

The fact you seem to think that changing to track test and trace will have such a huge effect on you directly shows the approaches in the UK and Ireland have been markedly different.

Joe_ Public · 30-04-2020 10:46AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Great to see the Tories continuing to average 50% in the polls throughout the pandemic and their lethal incompetence. If there were a GE tomorrow, they'd get another landslide victory. God Save The Queen. I suppose.

What do you do if you are the opposition? Starmer was very controlled in his pmqs yesterday, labour are being very careful in their approach to this. Not sure that's right but it is a difficult position for them.

bob mcbob · 30-04-2020 10:48AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

THE SPECTATOR - Boris has found a path out of lockdown – but it won’t be smooth - The government is adopting the South Korean approachh

This article gives me some hope for the future even if it does brush over some of the recent failings. Yes, it's clear that Asian countries were better prepared for this pandemic but the UK introducing unique measures like a lone wolf will prove (has already proven?) to be very costly.

The Spectator whose owners also own the Daily Boris Telegraph.

Joe_ Public · 30-04-2020 10:49AM

One advantage for uk is they can see how other countries are coping with lifting restrictions and learn from their mistakes or successes. They've always had this advantage, just chose early on not to use it.

timthumbni · 30-04-2020 10:58AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Great to see the Tories continuing to average 50% in the polls throughout the pandemic and their lethal incompetence. If there were a GE tomorrow, they'd get another landslide victory. God Save The Queen. I suppose.

Amazingly it seems most British people aren’t into anti British snuff type posts on an Irish forum. Weird that...

I would guess that most British people realise that even when mistakes are made they are not intentional and they are just trying to get through this worldwide ****show.

Jaysus, can you imagine if boards.ie was about around ww2. There wld be a lot of people on here who would have wanked themselves to death over the British death figures then too.

CelticRambler · 30-04-2020 11:06AM

timthumbni wrote: »

I would guess that most British people realise that even when mistakes are made they are not intentional and they are just trying to get through this worldwide ****show.

There's a world of difference between unintentional mistakes and incompetence.

theological · 30-04-2020 11:12AM

VinLieger wrote: »

What are you talking about? Who said the article wasnt interesting?

Also does it need to be repeated again for the nth time that many Irish people and posters on here have family and friends in the UK so have every right to critique their shambolic approach?

Also the approach the UK is talking about taking is the exact approach Ireland, and many other countries, have been implementing since early March, while the UK decided to stop contact tracing and community testing on the 12th of March.

The fact you seem to think that changing to track test and trace will have such a huge effect on you directly shows the approaches in the UK and Ireland have been markedly different.

I said it was interesting because it shows us the direction of travel on how restrictions are going to be eased and it sets expectations. That's why I find it interesting, because it affects my life directly.

I think it is also likely to be accurate because of The Spectator being quite a close source to the Tory party and to the PM having been an editor of the magazine in the past.

I didn't say anything about the merits of adopting a track and trace approach. I don't consider there to be any seismic differences between the British and Irish approach on this for the record.

S.M.B. · 30-04-2020 11:12AM

theological wrote: »

I find the article interesting because I live in Britain and this directly has an impact on what my immediate future will look like.

I agree that it is less interesting if you're commenting from Ireland to take every opportunity to criticise the British government despite the fact that the approaches in both jurisdictions aren't massively different and weren't massively different.

Each to their own though.

I find the article interesting too and I live in the UK. I also pointed out how I saw it as a positive move by the UK government, I also acknowledged that they are later than most countries to come to this realisation and I would hope others will come to recognise that too.

S.M.B. · 30-04-2020 11:18AM

bob mcbob wrote: »

The Spectator whose owners also own the Daily Boris Telegraph.

I am well aware of this and it explains how coming to the realisation of this approach at this late stage appears to be entirely normal/acceptable.

I am just happy to see that they are finally admitting that this approach is the way forward. Maybe when this is all said and done we can get to the bottom of why it took ~8 weeks to get to this point.

blinding · 30-04-2020 11:20AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Great to see the Tories continuing to average 50% in the polls throughout the pandemic and their lethal incompetence. If there were a GE tomorrow, they'd get another landslide victory. God Save The Queen. I suppose.

If Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot had been running the show during this, there would probably have been Mass Suicide in Britain ! !

timthumbni · 30-04-2020 11:21AM

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's a world of difference between unintentional mistakes and incompetence.

And it’s very easy from our armchairs to throw verbal grenades about too,criticising others after the fact. You aren’t making any decisions. This is a worldwide ****show. It’s not just the brits messing about here.

I really worry about how this will end economically. This is only the start of something that will effect not only ourselves for years but quite possibly our children and grandchildren down the line too.

VinLieger · 30-04-2020 11:24AM

timthumbni wrote: »

Amazingly it seems most British people aren’t into anti British snuff type posts on an Irish forum. Weird that...

I would guess that most British people realise that even when mistakes are made they are not intentional and they are just trying to get through this worldwide ****show.

Jaysus, can you imagine if boards.ie was about around ww2. There wld be a lot of people on here who would have wanked themselves to death over the British death figures then too.

Ive seen anti tory and anti UK government stuff, havent seen much anti british stuff at all in this thread, just a lot of people claming it while mistakingly equating the former as the latter.

timthumbni · 30-04-2020 11:28AM

blinding wrote: »

If Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot had been running the show during this, there would probably have been Mass Suicide in Britain ! !

Diane would have been great on the numbers and Jer would have sold any masks he did have to a community project of friends of his in south Armagh... I’m SHOCKED that labour lost the recent election.

blinding · 30-04-2020 11:37AM

timthumbni wrote: »

Diane would have been great on the numbers and Jer would have sold any masks he did have to a community project of friends of his in south Armagh... I’m SHOCKED that labour lost the recent election.

Diane Abbott would have told the British people that 200 Million British People were going to die and that they deserved to die, particularly the White British.

Jeremy would have said Diane is doing Great Job, and that he hoped Diane’s Predictions were Correct ! ! !

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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