The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

CelticRambler · 28-04-2020 06:53PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't have much time for Johnson but if he is advised by people deemed to be knowledgeable in how to deal with this type of virus,then he is doing his best,its not his fault if the advice being offered to him is incorrect.

It is his fault if (a) he ignored previously established protocols and worst-case "what-if" planning; and (b) he - as Prime Minister - allowed his group of advisors to be made up of people with the wrong range of experience. You don't go to a civil engineer to find out why your dog is vomiting, even thought the "right" and "wrong" professionals concerned would have a good knowledge of fluid dynamics.

Joe_ Public · 28-04-2020 07:00PM

Enzokk wrote: »

They are being disingenuous on their numbers. Before they were talking about care home deaths only being about 10% of the total but seemed to ignore that data from other countries were showing it is from 40% to 60%. I am going to be cynical and say that the reason they ignored this is because their in hospital numbers were terrible and if you were to add another 40% to the numbers they would have no chance of trying to fool anyone that their response was the correct one or that they were following the science. The pressure and questions would have been ramped up to, someone has to be fired levels.

This is what we were posting about on here, it is not to revel in the amount of people that have died. It is highlighting that what they are telling you doesn't align with reality out there at all. We know what is happening in other countries but the UK seems to deny this reality.

Absolutely right to be cynical. All along they've been saying we can't provide these figures because of the time it takes to register deaths and report them but today all of a sudden, we're going to report them daily as if it's some great public act of transparency. Truth is we all know they've been pressured into doing it, as with everything. Just reacting as much as they have to and no more.

The numbers in relation to care homes are massive, they're barely scratching the surface yet i reckon.

CelticRambler · 28-04-2020 07:05PM

S.M.B. wrote: »

I don't think there's an alternative timeline where if handled differently we still wouldn't be struggling to some extent right now, whether that's emotionally, economically, physically etc. A global pandemic is hardly going to be a stroll in the park.

There is/was an alternative, but it required steps to be taken at a much earlier point, and for controls to be put in place that would have been paradoxically less extreme but less tolerated/understood by the general public (=voters). Specifically: the rapid no-warning lockdown of geographical areas, not people, with mandatory quarantine for everyone coming into the region and a ban on travelling within the region. We do have examples of how this worked really well, whether through sensible politics or accidental good fortune - New Zealand is one, Greece is another.

Where larger countries have struggled - Italy and France among them - was in giving notice of impending movement restrictions to a population that was well used to travelling the length and breath of the country, allowing people to "escape" from the worst affected areas and bring their germs to other parts of the country. The same is true of the UK (and Ireland, although it's obviously smaller). That left the authorities no choice but to impose a total, economy-busting lockdown on everyone everywhere. Somewhat belatedly, France is now setting things in motion for this kind of regionalisation as the most efficient way out of lockdown. But we have the kind of local government infrastructure and autonomy here that allow that; if Boris Johnson can't stop people from Derry crossing into the Republic, I can't see how he'd stop people travelling, say between Islington or Camden and Westminster.

Enzokk · 28-04-2020 08:28PM

Does anybody know the testing numbers? I cannot recall any focus on them the past couple of days and the last figure I can find is 37000 tests on the 26th April.

As for the fallout from the "right decisions at the right time" the UK Government has made,

Revealed: The three UK sporting events that may have led to a coronavirus death spike

Mass gatherings held in the run-up to Britain’s coronavirus peak may have led to additional deaths in the local areas, a new analysis suggests.

Events including the Cheltenham Festival, the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Champions League football match and the Manchester derby all resulted in an apparent spike in deaths at local hospital trusts compared with others further afield.

All three events, each attended by tens of thousands of people, many from overseas, were held between March 8 and 13 - after the virus arrived in Britain but ahead of the government lockdown.

Analysis by Edge Health, a leading supplier of data to the NHS, shows that each fixture is linked to between 2.5 and 3.5 additional deaths per day at local hospitals 20 to 35 days later, compared with similar hospital trusts which were used as a control.

S.M.B. · 28-04-2020 08:58PM

It's something like ~40,000 tests out of a capacity of ~70,000 based on what I heard on BBC earlier. Obviously I've no idea how ~45% of test capacity is not being utilised given the clear demand.

Joe_ Public · 28-04-2020 09:00PM

Hancock mentioned today that the testing capacity is 73,000 but i guess it must have slipped his mind that only just over 43,000 were carried out. So only another 57,000 to find in next two days and yet another broken tory promise is averted.

PommieBast · 28-04-2020 09:42PM

S.M.B. wrote: »

It's something like ~40,000 tests out of a capacity of ~70,000 based on what I heard on BBC earlier. Obviously I've no idea how ~45% of test capacity is not being utilised given the clear demand.

Having big testing centres that are out in the sticks and expecting people to drive the 250-mile round-trip in order to get tested. They seriously expected care home staff doing 12-hour shifts on minimum wage to be able to do this.

Had a video call with a relative who is in the HoL and apparently this silly arrangement has only just been rectified by having tests done by mobile army units.

robinph · 29-04-2020 10:05AM

Johnson, having just come back from sick leave, will now disappear again for two weeks as his kids just been born.

Enzokk · 29-04-2020 10:11AM

robinph wrote: »

Johnson, having just come back from sick leave, will now disappear again for two weeks as his kids just been born.

That is nice, the 6th (or 7th) child is always a special time in your life that you will never forget.

I can forgive him for for not taking PMQ's today, but if he takes off another 2 weeks when the country is in crises with people dying by the thousands a day due to his bumbling the situation, well the saying judge me by my actions rather than my words seem quite apt.

Seth Brundle · 29-04-2020 10:11AM

robinph wrote: »

Johnson, having just come back from sick leave, will now disappear again for two weeks as his kids just been born.

Aah come on now.
Let the kid have a bit of time with their father before Johnson denies it's existence.

gmisk · 29-04-2020 10:12AM

From a quick scan of the papers in UK it looks like they might finally be turning on the Tories due to their poor response to coronavirus....not before time.
The panorama programme was shocking

Enzokk · 29-04-2020 10:17AM

gmisk wrote: »

From a quick scan of the papers in UK it looks like they might finally be turning on the Tories due to their poor response to coronavirus....not before time.
The panorama programme was shocking

The best time not to be front and center for the bloodbath to come from the press.

Leroy42 · 29-04-2020 10:20AM

So isn't today the day when the UK are actually going to start to officially publish all Covid deaths rather than just hospital deaths?

I saw yesterday that at least of one the graphs had a second line showing the expected actual death numbers (based on the ONS numbers I think but I could be mistaken) and that clearly put the UK ahead of France, Italy and Spain.

I see in the papers this morning it is being commented on but I still don't get the sense of outrage, people are still talking about relaxing the restrictions etc. Will an official government acknowledgment change the narrative?

S.M.B. · 29-04-2020 10:22AM

The leading story on most news outlets I've seen the past ~18 hours has been about the care home numbers and how things are not as positive as the narrative that has been painted in some of the daily briefings.

RasTa · 29-04-2020 10:45AM

No Boris had another baby so he is truly great again. Probably name him Winston and then all is forgiven

splinter65 · 29-04-2020 10:50AM

gmisk wrote: »

From a quick scan of the papers in UK it looks like they might finally be turning on the Tories due to their poor response to coronavirus....not before time.
The panorama programme was shocking

Sorry to spoil your little party there.

AllForIt · 29-04-2020 10:51AM

Call me cynical but I bet it was Cummings' idea to induce labor so that Boris has an excuse to stay out the media spotlight to avoid scrutiny in these tricky times for him. In fact Beth Rigby has just revealed that the baby wasn't due till June. Huh.

splinter65 · 29-04-2020 10:52AM

RasTa wrote: »

No Boris had another baby so he is truly great again. Probably name him Winston and then all is forgiven

Nothing as awful for the deranged left as a new baby. Just shocking.

splinter65 · 29-04-2020 10:56AM

AllForIt wrote: »

Call me cynical but I bet it was Cummings' idea to induce labor so that Boris has an excuse to stay out the media spotlight to avoid scrutiny in these tricky times for him. In fact Beth Rigby has just revealed that the baby wasn't due till June. Huh.

You’ve gone full retard now. Dominic Cummings is now I see an obstetrician enforcing inductions on associates of cabinet ministers. His evil intentions knows no end. What next? Will he bomb the Houses of Parliament? Bring back public hangings for covidiots?
I can actually picture you sitting at your laptop foaming at the mouth with rage over the birth of a baby.
Sad.

BarryD2 · 29-04-2020 11:29AM

RasTa wrote: »

No Boris had another baby so he is truly great again. Probably name him Winston and then all is forgiven

Be interesting to see how the British media deal with this. Congrats etc., but I hope they don't forget that Boris has existing family and new child will have several half siblings.... some great role model is our Boris.

RobMc59 · 29-04-2020 11:30AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Out of curiosity, do you really believe that Johnson was advised on this cretinous information or was it just him pretending to be Trump?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3NAx3tsy-k

I can recall showing this to my children who immediately knew it was an absolutely stupid thing for him to say!

Surely his advisors should also have advised him on the need for at least 2m social distancing (as per the best practices advice almost every other leader was encouraging at the time). Was he not advised on this or did he simply ignore it for several weeks of media briefings amongst other events?

I think the initial UK response to the virus was driven by economic factors which was,with hindsight mistaken.I'd like to think Johnson didn't knowingly gamble with people's lives.

Professor Moriarty · 29-04-2020 11:52AM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Be interesting to see how the British media deal with this. Congrats etc., but I hope they don't forget that Boris has existing family and new child will have several half siblings.... some great role model is our Boris.

If you look up Wikipedia, in his profile under 'Children' it says "5 or 6".

Harry Palmr · 29-04-2020 12:03PM

The man will go to no ends to avoid PMQs!

blinding · 29-04-2020 12:04PM

The New Babys name is going to be " Brex “ ! !

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 12:08PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think the initial UK response to the virus was driven by economic factors which was,with hindsight mistaken.I'd like to think Johnson didn't knowingly gamble with people's lives.

So the herd immunity strategy can only be viewed a mistake in hindsight? The fact that nearly every other country was going the lockdown route and following the advice to "test, test, test" wasnt a big flashing red light that maybe our leaders and whatever science they claim to be following were open to question? The fact that Richard Horton and other respected scientists were issuing stern warnings about the direction they were taking? Lot of foresight there if anyone wanted to look for it.

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-04-2020 12:23PM

The National Records Scotland has released the 4th data set for deaths in Scotland which are confirmed COVID-19 and those which are suspected. The data cut off is Sunday, 26th April and the deaths show 2,272 versus the 1,262 announced on Sunday from deaths in hospital

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

The dash line below is the daily cumulative from hospitals

Breakdown of the 2,272 shows

The 1 in 'other institution' is in prison[/QUOTE]

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-04-2020 12:37PM

Scotland:
In hospital: 1,727 (-27)
In ICU: 114 (-12)
Total confirmed positive cases: 11,034 (+313)
Total deaths with confirmed positive COVID-19: 1,415 (+83)

Therefore as it stands, there are a minimum of 2,425 (1,415+1,010) deaths in Scotland (confirmed positive and suspected)

Leroy42 · 29-04-2020 12:48PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The National Records Scotland has released the 4th data set for deaths in Scotland which are confirmed COVID-19 and those which are suspected. The data cut off is Sunday, 26th April and the deaths show 2,272 versus the 1,262 announced on Sunday from deaths in hospital

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

The dash line below is the daily cumulative from hospitals

Breakdown of the 2,272 shows

The 1 in 'other institution' is in prison

[/QUOTE]

If those splits were to follow through across the UK, then they are looking at almost 40k in total to date (based on circa 20k in hospitals) doesn't it?

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-04-2020 12:51PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

If those splits were to follow through across the UK, then they are looking at almost 40k in total to date (based on circa 20k in hospitals) doesn't it?

Yes although the UK Govt and some of the media are denying this. They are claiming Scotland has mismanaged the community deaths and that is why it is so high

Enzokk · 29-04-2020 12:57PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yes although the UK Govt and some of the media are denying this. They are claiming Scotland has mismanaged the community deaths and that is why it is so high

Your link has the percentages and it has the out of hospital deaths at 40%, the lower end of other countries out of hospital deaths. Anyone thinking the UK is special and will not follow the trend of other countries is out of their mind. That is what perplexes me the most about the UK replies to this. Why try to sugarcoat the numbers when it should be apparent where this will lead?

Raab in PMQ's seemed to suggest again the reason the UK haven't participated in the EU procurement schemes was the missing emails, while the UK were attending meetings discussing these schemes.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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