Share Picks 2020

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i think ryanair has bottomed but easyjet has more upside

not in either of them

Don't say it twice, this might cost them few %

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/ryanair-boss-says-airline-wont-fly-with-idiotic-social-distancing-rules

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Well Zoom opened at 177, so guess selling yesterday was the wrong call. No big deal, was just a small investment so no loss really, but good to learn from these things!

A shame, but I would have done the same to be honest.

I think Zoom is completely overhyped - the product works and they did well putting up there name all over the media (not sure if it was smart marketing or luck, probably a mix of both), but at the end of the day they aren’t offering anything unique or hard to replicate. It made remote meetings more mainstream and this will stay, but IMO established players (Microsoft, Google, Cisco, etc) will do much better at monetising this usage with organisations as they ready have business relationships and either have a similar product already or can put it together very quickly.

So had I jumped in early when the share was still low I would also have thought it was a nice wave to ride and at some point you need to take your profits.

Who knows maybe I’ll be proved completely wrong though and rather than a wave it is a large tide which is just starting :-)

Bob Harris wrote: »

Whatever the price of Zoom does a 50M market cap for a video conferencing site is outrageous. Total revenue was 622M tha last time.
Just another crazy US valuation. Their PE is up in the thousands.

Was wondering what you meant by the PE being in the thousands.. You had an M instead of a B for the market cap :P

Augeo wrote: »

He has a point, the seat ahead and behind each seat is within 2m also, the middle one empty won't achieve anything.

An Italian design company are already on that...

Any chance of zoom recovering from this? Ik they are way overpriced and with this FB news it doesn't make it any better.
Currently at a 10% loss. Thinking of taking the bullet and delling before enduring further loss

littlemac1980 wrote: »

I think 4d is one of the 5 companies producing COVID test kits for the US that have obtained actual FDA approval. 2 Others being Abbot & Chembio.

Not sure what is affecting their price, but Abbot has been declining a bit lately also - despite the States (and everyone) crying out for more testing.

Also there is apparently a shortage of reagents which is limiting testing so they may not be able to capitalize on all the demand right now.

Also worth bearing in mind that the US are allowing other companies to provide tests and to run private testing labs, but I have seen a few commentators from the front lines expressing serious concerns about the accuracy of some of these other “unapproved” tests with one Doctor (I saw on Sun night) in New York staying that in his experience up to 70% of the unapproved tests are giving incorrect results. However the FDA Approved companies still share the market for tests with these companies and share the demand for reagents with them too.

*FDA approved with EUA (emergency use authorisation) no CV19 test is fully FDA approved due to time constraints.

There is a lot of RUO (research use only) tests that were in use before EUA were handed out, but there is a lot of finger prick antibody tests on the market which are nothing more than snake oil.

Roche are leaders in Molecular Testing, they have Cobas 6800 and 8800 which is unmatched firepower and accuracy. I think they had the first FDA approved commercial test that was given EUA and they have a Total Protein serology test (antibody test) coming out in a few weeks.

If you look at their share price it’s up about 30% compared to last year.

https://g.co/kgs/A2DA5n

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Interesting

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rockefeller-family-is-exiting-the-oil-business/

I think it’s easier to take the higher ground when you’ve already made your billions.

Maybe I’m being cynical and they have spent the 4 years since that article published cleaning beaches and fundraising to support causes in countries ravaged by wars caused by oil.

I dunno, seems not much has changed to me despite their most noble of “sacrifices”.

Shedite27 wrote: »

I keep reading/hearing that the big 5 are taking up far more of the S&P than ever before, and that they didn't neccessarily get as big a hit in March. Is there any way of seeing what the fall and recovery in the S&P was with and without the big 5?

I'm trying to see if you exclude the Amazon and Netflix of the world (who should be doing better), what the actual bounce from the March lows actually are. The 29% recovery figure is far too ambitious obviously, just wondering if we excluded those would it show a more realistic, gradual recovery.

Netflix has been booming! Much higher now than pre market meltdown.

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Netflix has been booming! Much higher now than pre market meltdown.

Yeah that's my point, Netflix, Amazon and a bunch of the big boys are at record high. And they make up a huge chunk of the S&P. So presumably there's 400ish companies that are nowehre near Feb prices. Which sounds a lot more accurate to what we should be seeing.

I keep hearing "There's a recession coming, why is the market only down 15% YTD". So I'm trying to see if you exclude Netflix, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, would we actually see the average comapny is actually down 25-25%

Shedite27 wrote: »

I keep reading/hearing that the big 5 are taking up far more of the S&P than ever before, and that they didn't neccessarily get as big a hit in March. Is there any way of seeing what the fall and recovery in the S&P was with and without the big 5?

I'm trying to see if you exclude the Amazon and Netflix of the world (who should be doing better), what the actual bounce from the March lows actually are. The 29% recovery figure is far too ambitious obviously, just wondering if we excluded those would it show a more realistic, gradual recovery.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

Top 5 stocks are like 20% of s&p 500. Create a portfolio with VOO and top stocks. VOO at +120% and top five stocks with their percentage as negative (e.g. MSFT -5.6%, you might have to round this to -6%) totaling -20%. You need to balance the portfolio to 100% on the website so 120%-20%=100%. Add the S&P 500 benchmark and then analyze portfolio. You will have a comparison then.

Alternatively you could just look at the sector etf by Vanguard to get a rough idea of how each sector is doing, Tech, healthcare and consumer staples look good, Energy, financial, materials and Real estate not so good.

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Bought airbus @52 yesterday, suspect it will be 40 today, knowing the French, they will nationalise it

Maxx are you still watching Airbus .... down to €50 today ... but the news coming out from them is NOT good

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0427/1134991-bleak-outlook-from-airbus/ :eek: