Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Roger_007 · 26-04-2020 07:14PM

ek motor wrote: »

The r0 of SARS-CoV-2 without any social distancing or other restrictions is estimated to be around 5.7 . We ve brought it below 1 by implementing these restrictions (as has Germany and other countries.)

I did not say that we shouldn’t have had social distancing. What I was saying was that we should be practicing it out in the open air. In an enclosed space there is obviously more chance of transmitting the virus because everyone is breathing in air that someone else has breathed out.
It is absolutely stupid to have the same recommended social distance indoors as out. That makes no sense.

hmmm · 26-04-2020 07:15PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

And Holohan also said that he could see no reason to cancel the St' Patrick's Day parades... just as sensible people everywhere were cancelling their parades.

That coupled with his the total failure to monitor, screen and quarantine arrivals to the country from known hotspots, from the first DOH presser until now, makes me suspect his judgement.

I'm sure he speaks highly of yourself.

The St Patrick's day decision was always obvious, and it was always going to be shut down - NPHET were discussing it for weeks before as you can see from their minutes. The important thing was to shut it down when public and business support was there, not before - otherwise we'd have had widespread disobedience. The timing was spot on.

frillyleaf · 26-04-2020 07:19PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I know such a nursing home too. A private, for profit, organisation. Imposed visitor restrictions in plenty of time but had no decent PPE stocks. They also had agency staff moving between facilities. The virus was brought in by staff members. Some responsibility has to rest with the owners, managers and staff of some of these private homes to have protocols and supplies in place. Of course it has exploded beyond what is manageable for them but they too were slow to react.

My relatives stopped early March, think March 6th. Good on them for doing so

stephenjmcd · 26-04-2020 07:20PM

Xertz wrote: »

There would possibly have been decades ago, but there really isn't much of a textile industry in Ireland, other than low volume, very high end stuff and that really wouldn't be able to produce a volume of anything.

We have at least one company that makes actual masks, IREMA in Limerick. They produce filter materials and disposable respirator masks, which would be spec'd for everything from simple surgical masks to FFP2 and FFP3 (highest level filtration) and they were churning out 1.3 million or so a week. That's now going up to 2.6 million.

I would assume the HSE's mask consumption rate is pretty high as those devices are single use.

I mean just lets say you've 65,000 active nurses and maybe 20,000+ others (doctors and paramedics) -
[NB: this is just my make up figures for illustrative purposes]

So let's say 85,000 staff needing masks.
Let's assume they dispose of 7 masks each every day.
and work 6 days a week.

85,000 x 7 = 595,000

X 6 days a week =

3,570,000

You've already got more demand than one factory can cover.

You can see how these volumes start to get absolutely enormous, even just for Ireland.

To stock 1 year's supply at that rate is

1,303,050,000 masks !

HSE mask consumption they said this morning is now going up to 1 million per day so they've to secure more supply lines

Xertz · 26-04-2020 07:25PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE mask consumption they said this morning is now going up to 1 million per day so they've to secure more supply lines

Mass consumption of products gets absolutely mind boggling even for a small market of 4.8 million people.

Just take something like tea. We consume around 10 million cups PER DAY. That means probably around the same volume of tea bags. So, you're looking at roughly 3.5 billion tea bags per year. That's one hell of an logistical operation when you think about it.

So these things can be done. It's just when you get spikes in demand for things that are normally produced at volume, at a constant rate, that it's not all that easy to upscale the manufacturing at the flip of a switch.

This is why I'm finding some of the criticism of Chinese manufacturing a bit ludicrous. The whole world is looking for products that have a fixed width and depth of supply chain that is being widened rapidly to cope with demand, but there are going to be tight spots.

I just found some politicians in the US in particular were throwing their toys out of the pram about off shoring, as if the issue was that the manufacturing was in China or Asia generally. Even Ireland in some cases (we'd a few rants about ventilator production not being local to the US). It's really not the time to pick jingoistic fights with the places that can actually upscale to do this.

The reality is that all these supply chains are capable of widening, but when you've a HUGE scale of demand like this they just aren't going to adapt instantaneously.

As for masks for the general public, we are really just talking about simple fabric stuff to prevent sneezing / coughing / droplet transmission. That's all they'll do.

Also one word of warning: Most non-medical filter masks have breathing valve. Your in-breaths will be filtered through the mask filter material and you exhale straight to the air through a valve. They're good for protection of the wearer if they're FFP2 (roughly N95) or FFP3 (Roughly N100). However, they're utterly useless as filtration systems to protect against out breaths. You are exhaling directly to the room without any filter as the valve opens and you breath straight out.

The majority of those masks are designed as dust protection for someone. Not as a biological protection filter for those around them.

walshb · 26-04-2020 07:25PM

jackboy wrote: »

RTE now showing crowds of people on the streets doing dance routines. They are promoting this as a great thing. Supposedly exercising social distancing. It looks like RTE are totally taking the piss at this stage.

If this pandemic has shown us anything it is the ridiculous lengths people will go to get attention and to be known and to be back-slapped...

I have my absolute bellyfull of all this Covid attention seeking crap. It’s everywhere. Can people not just do Sh1t anymore without this utter need to have it recorded and praised and shown?

joe_99 · 26-04-2020 07:25PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

They can't barely provide the hospitals. Make your own masks and stop relying on masks from the government. Protect yourself, the government doesn't give two fcuks about you.

The government has shut down the country and destroyed the economy for this. I think they care.

wakka12 · 26-04-2020 07:27PM

Today is the first time that Europe has reported less than 2000 hospital deaths in a day for about 5 solid weeks

Down from an average of about 3500 per day the last few weeks.

Rob A. Bank · 26-04-2020 07:28PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm sure he speaks highly of yourself.

The St Patrick's day decision was always obvious, and it was always going to be shut down - NPHET were discussing it for weeks before as you can see from their minutes. The important thing was to shut it down when public and business support was there, not before - otherwise we'd have had widespread disobedience. The timing was spot on.

Our death numbers and case numbers say otherwise....

joe_99 · 26-04-2020 07:29PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

They didn't care about the nursing homes either at the beginning. Didn't they think the nursing homes putting in restrictions was too much? Look at that now.

I despair. Of course they cared. Mistakes were made for sure but it wasn't policy to let it rip through care homes.

walshb · 26-04-2020 07:31PM

joe_99 wrote: »

I despair. Of course they cared. Mistakes were made for sure but it wasn't policy to let it rip through care homes.

Exactly...

And who are they?

We are all they in this....

sideswipe · 26-04-2020 07:32PM

ek motor wrote: »

The r0 of SARS-CoV-2 without any social distancing or other restrictions is estimated to be around 5.7 . We ve brought it below 1 by implementing these restrictions (as has Germany and other countries.)

Very true. But without an exit strategy it’s a bit like getting somebody that’s on fire and holding them underwater till they drown. It’s a balancing act.

callaway92 · 26-04-2020 07:35PM

Friend of mine living with a girl that works in a nursing home (won’t give location to not scaremonger)

12 Staff in the home have Coronavirus
48 out of 71 residents have tested positive for it
2 have died
Most won’t survive

When you have well-to-do people moaning about restrictions etc this kinda brings it back down to earth imo that you have people working in places like this.

speckle · 26-04-2020 07:36PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm sure they had a million things to consider and discuss - this is a 100 year pandemic. You can read their minutes. You should offer your hindsight services to them, everything is easy after the fact.

The first proper mention of vunerable people protections needing action in the minutes is March 23. the meeting was postponed that day due to lateness just before they got to that part of the agenda. It was continued the next day but didnt include that section. The next meeting was march 26th where a framework document was put foward for vunerable people but no definite recommendations made that I can see.
They person responsible for that area had been present at earlier meetings in March.
I think one probelm with expert groups in general in an emergency is that properly so, people focus on their own area(or not) so what is required really are at least one or two people to take a birds eye view and look for gaps. The chair in this case had to much other work to do.

Widdensushi · 26-04-2020 07:36PM

callaway92 wrote: »

Friend of mine living with a girl that works in a nursing home (won’t give location to not scaremonger)

12 Staff in the home have Coronavirus
48 out of 71 residents have tested positive for it
2 have died
Most won’t survive

When you have well-to-do people moaning about restrictions etc this kinda brings it back down to earth imo that you have people working in places like this.

did they whatsapp you that

Nermal · 26-04-2020 07:37PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

NPHET minutes https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/691330-national-public-health-emergency-team-covid-19-coronavirus/

Perused in vain for the discussion of economic impact of actions, for anyone attending with anything other than a purely medical background, for any QUALYS-based evaluations.

Nothing.

Strazdas · 26-04-2020 07:37PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

And cancelling the rugby match but letting the Italians arrive . No match on so the flocked to pubs and restaurants

There doesn't seem to be any evidence those Italian rugby fans transmitted the virus in any meaningful way - Dr Holohan was asked about this recently.

iamwhoiam · 26-04-2020 07:39PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be any evidence those Italian rugby fans transmitted the virus in any meaningful way - Dr Holohan was asked about this recently.

He wasn’t to know that though . The risk was there in plain sight

caveat emptor · 26-04-2020 07:39PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE mask consumption they said this morning is now going up to 1 million per day so they've to secure more supply lines

Yeah this is a real problem. It's typical problem of scale.

I think that we should provide healthcare workers with reusable respirators for two main reasons.

increased protection.
Avoiding the global rat race in procuring single use medical PPE

This type of equipment isn't generally used in hospitals although it is FDA approved. Given the scale of healthcare workers who cares about stupid approval it clearly works. Therefore there is much less burden on supply chains globally. Also unlikely to be out bid by trump. The fact they are reusable means that you don't need plane loads every two weeks.

The only downside and this is something that's become apparent with the current PPE is training. It's a cost etc in terms of time. Learning to don and doff different equipment. Also sterilising etc. I think the main benefits listed above offset this cost by a wide margin.

Someone needs to do cost benefit analysis. They should also factor the potential claims from workers not adequately protected by occupational health.

https://www.mlo-online.com/disease/infectious-disease/article/21128593/fda-allows-healthcare-personnel-to-use-industrial-respirators-during-covid19-outbreak[/QUOTE]

Although the below video looks more advanced. The number of people needing the protection is less although the delineation of clean and dirty is probably more strict.

kaymin · 26-04-2020 07:40PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm sure they had a million things to consider and discuss - this is a 100 year pandemic. You can read their minutes. You should offer your hindsight services to them, everything is easy after the fact.

Plenty of people were posting on this thread on 2nd February watching in disbelief as the government let plane loads of people in from Italy, myself included. We should have been like New Zealand, instead we're now 7th worst country (of significant size) for deaths per million.

Strazdas · 26-04-2020 07:41PM

Nermal wrote: »

Perused in vain for the discussion of economic impact of actions, for anyone attending with anything other than a purely medical background, for any QUALYS-based evaluations.

Nothing.

Wouldn't that be outside their remit? Their brief is a public health and safety one.

It's up to the Govt and Dept of Finance to weigh up the economic impact and to act accordingly.

speckle · 26-04-2020 07:41PM

ShamNNspace wrote: »

Nice one all the same for tetrarch capital block booked till Dec 19

Are they an Irish company paying tax here?

Beasty · 26-04-2020 07:44PM

Xertz wrote: »

Mass consumption of products gets absolutely mind boggling even for a small market of 4.8 million people.

Just take something like tea. We consume around 10 million cups PER DAY. That means probably around the same volume of tea bags. So, you're looking at roughly 3.5 billion tea bags per year. That's one hell of an logistical operation when you think about it.

So these things can be done.

Wot? You reckon we can make facemasks out of teabags? What do we do? Sew them together?

Worth a go I suppose....

:pac:

speckle · 26-04-2020 07:44PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

You can make your own out of bandanas, t-shirts, and elastic bands. Check out videos on YouTube.

Some pharmacys also.

bekker · 26-04-2020 07:45PM

hmmm wrote: »

We were barely able to get enough PPE for our hospitals Captain, let along the entire nursing home sector. Besides, why was that sector itself not prepared for this with PPE, what were they doing begging for gloves?

Possibly they thought that the Department of Health had responsibility for the health of the whole country and would allocate emergency resources obtained by the State wherever needed and not just to it's creature, the HSE.

The reasons for the catastrophic situation in care homes lie in the nature and structure of state administration in this country. NEPHT is mainly composed of DOH and HSE.

but, NEPHT Terms of Reference
5. Liaise with relevant organisations and stakeholders, to include other Government departments, statutory and voluntary agencies, international bodies and the relevant regulators.

Didn't even bring in HSE community care services till 10th March. To see how well that delay worked see Phoenix Park deaths.

blackcard · 26-04-2020 07:46PM

Strumms wrote: »

This country is such a fûcking out and out joke of a shîthole.

I think anyone that thinks like this should just get out of the country

26-04-2020 07:47PM

Beasty wrote: »

Wot? You reckon we can make facemasks out of teabags? What do we do? Sew them together?

Worth a go I suppose....

:pac:

I thought a cup of tea was the Yorkshire remedy to everything?

Away With The Fairies · 26-04-2020 07:48PM

joe_99 wrote: »

I despair. Of course they cared. Mistakes were made for sure but it wasn't policy to let it rip through care homes.

They actually thought nursing homes putting restrictions in was too much at the beginning... You only have to look at Italy and doctors choosing who to put on ventilators and here restrictions on nursing homes were too much.

caveat emptor · 26-04-2020 07:48PM

hmmm wrote: »

Well Captain Hindsight, their meetings in January were unlikely to be aware of what happened in Italy and Spain in March.

When they became aware of it in this country, they quickly pivoted testing once resources were available.

Are you a paid contributor or do you just volunteer?
I'm very wary of people who have only negative things to say or equally those who only have positive/explanatory things to say. You seem to fall into the latter.
Oneway to dispel this is to actually say something might have been done had we known etc.....
Instead you just say "captain hindsight, how could we have known."

callaway92 · 26-04-2020 07:50PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

did they whatsapp you that

What kinda childish guff is this? He sent me a screenshot of the messages she sent him (they’re trying to avoid being in the same room at the same time

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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