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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #3842
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    Would that be like the cytokine storm thing we were reading about early on?

    I can't find the video now, but it was basically suggesting that our body actually goes nuts and starts flooding the lungs with a certain type of cell to combat the virus.

    Yes, that sort of thing. Again, like I said, pure speculation on my part.


  • #3843
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    BloodBath wrote: »
    I don't know, nobody does, but it sure as hell isn't anywhere near 250 times.

    It's below 1% which would mean a max of 10 times deadlier.




    is that 1% of cases? In which case how do they come up with an accurate rate for the flu?

    i'll open that up to anyone who knows


  • #3844
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Testing criteria for general public through GP slightly changed

    1. A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever AND at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath);
    OR
    2. A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in close contact (<2 metres face-to-face contact for greater than 15 minutes) with a confirmed or
    probable (person who meets criterion 1 but has not been tested) COVID-19 case in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset


  • #3845
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    BloodBath wrote: »
    I don't know, nobody does, but it sure as hell isn't anywhere near 250 times.

    It's below 1% which would mean a max of 10 times deadlier.

    I would lay my hat on 0.5% come year end.

    0.3% be the end of 2021.

    Vaccine in mid-2022.


  • #3846
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Akabusi wrote: »
    You sound like you are in a bad place, I hope things get better for you. Wishing you the best.

    No, I mean, it's fine, we cope. I'm just saying that long-term restrictions on our already very restricted life would be unbearable. And many other people deal with this too. Imagine society moving on and getting back to normal life while not only do the immunocompromised have to remain cocooned but the people they live with too? As if life isn't hard enough already. Especially as many immunocompromised people are already facing shortened lives and have plans for the little amount of time they have left. And it's incredibly stressful for loved ones too who need their ways to blow off steam. At least currently, we're all in it together.


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  • #3847
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Testing criteria for general public through GP slightly changed

    1. A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever AND at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath);
    OR
    2. A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in close contact (<2 metres face-to-face contact for greater than 15 minutes) with a confirmed or
    probable (person who meets criterion 1 but has not been tested) COVID-19 case in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset

    Fever had been missing from a lot of people who tested positive.


  • #3848
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    BloodBath wrote: »
    You can cherry pick whatever you want. I was right about most of the things I said and the stuff I was calling out as BS was BS.

    How about a post from you?
    Glad you mentioned that again not a valid comparison. According to the latest ESTIMATE from the WHO (as of yesterday). The mortality rate of the COVID-19 "novel" virus is 3.4%. The seasonal flu is ~0.1%.

    What's the difference between those two numbers? Vast majority of people I know can't answer that cause they are both relatively small. Well 3.4% is an order of magnitude larger. Specifically

    34 TIMES larger

    That's not scare mongering. Thats bleeding maths!




    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112721040&postcount=7326

    Care to admit you were wrong?

    You don't get it unfortunately. Maths and percentages are hard. So the current Clinical fatality ratio in Ireland is actually higher that here. That was a world health organisation estimate.

    It's 4.8% which is 48 times higher than flu. What do you not get? You were wrong it's not a flu. Evidence of it attacking every organ in the body not to mention the immune system. You can do it. Just multiply everything by 100 and it's easier to comprehend. Wishing you the best in your lockdown due to non deadly virus pandemic.


    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2020200423_website.pdf

    510781.png


  • #3849
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Defending myself against lies started by Dougal.

    The effects of the lockdown are really starting to show :pac::pac:


    The 27.6% of cases in healthcare workers is frightening. They have my utmost respect.


  • #3850
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Testing criteria for general public through GP slightly changed

    1. A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever AND at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath);
    OR
    2. A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in close contact (<2 metres face-to-face contact for greater than 15 minutes) with a confirmed or
    probable (person who meets criterion 1 but has not been tested) COVID-19 case in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset

    That sounds so confusing
    I had to read it twice


  • #3851
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    timmy_mallet wrote: »
    If that number, 40,000 is correct, could we live with that? Yes, No? Is there a number we'd be comfortable with to go back to a sense of normality? Given that we're at 800ish. Where do you think (keep all-cause numbers in mind) we might hit the sweet spot for life as normal?

    40k is an awful lot, its nearly 1 in every 100 citizens


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  • #3852
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    ZX7R wrote: »
    That sounds so confusing
    I had to read it twice

    I'll translate. Basically you need to in bits. If you are not in bits then no test to see if you'll be in bits. It's a prerequisite to be in bits in order to know you are in bits and sick with covid.


  • #3853
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    You don't get it unfortunately. Maths and percentages are hard. So the current Clinical fatality ratio in Ireland is actually higher that here. That was a world health organisation estimate.

    It's 4.8% which is 48 times higher than flu. What do you not get? You were wrong it's not a flu. Evidence of it attacking every organ in the body not to mention the immune system. You can do it. Just multiply everything by 100 and it's easier to comprehend. Wishing you the best in your lockdown due to non deadly virus pandemic.


    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2020200423_website.pdf

    510781.png

    Confirmed cases are likely to be only a small fraction of actual cases. A number of experts have put confirmed cases at 10% of actual cases. More studies needed obviously. Random antibody sampling would tell us a lot. But if these experts are right, then the fatality rate may be closer to 0.48%.

    And we would need to do far better at targeting that 0.48% number.


  • #3854
    trapp
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 510 ✭✭✭trapp


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    No, I mean, it's fine, we cope. I'm just saying that long-term restrictions on our already very restricted life would be unbearable. And many other people deal with this too. Imagine society moving on and getting back to normal life while not only do the immunocompromised have to remain cocooned but the people they live with too? As if life isn't hard enough already. Especially as many immunocompromised people are already facing shortened lives and have plans for the little amount of time they have left. And it's incredibly stressful for loved ones too who need their ways to blow off steam. At least currently, we're all in it together.

    We're not.

    And never will be.

    How can we be when so many will lose jobs and others won't.

    The idea of being in it together is a joke.


  • #3855
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    I'll translate. Basically you need to in bits. If you are not in bits then no test to see if you'll be in bits. It's a prerequisite to be in bits in order to know you are in bits and sick with covid.

    Or met someone else in bits


  • #3856
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    rm212 wrote: »
    I really just wish he'd stop with the "12 days", "11 days" he's been doing yesterday and today, doing a countdown to the 5th May like that just raises people's hopes too much I think.

    maybe he needs the next time to put it back up to a higher number so people understand its in our own hands when restrictions can start to be lifted.


  • #3857
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    speckle wrote: »
    maybe he needs the next time to put it back up to a higher number so people understand its in our own hands when restrictions can start to be lifted.
    Just 11 sleeps....


  • #3858
    zinfandel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭zinfandel


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Tests/million is listed on Worldometers, Ireland is around 22,000 which is not bad at all.

    ..and only updated once a week, so will be a lot higher now..


  • #3859
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    timmy_mallet wrote: »
    I would lay my hat on 0.5% come year end.

    0.3% be the end of 2021.

    Vaccine in mid-2022.

    The largest antibody test so far which was in New York state estimated a mortality rate of 0.78%.

    Likely much higher in Lombardy and Madrid because of their large populations of elderly people.
    New York has a relatively young poulation, a bit younger than Ireland's population. It also has an obesity rate similar to Ireland. So the 0.78% is probably very applicable to Ireland.


  • #3860
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,441 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    BBC reporter in Singapore speculating that warm tropical weather in the region may be one of the reasons cases and deaths are lower than Europe and the US


  • #3861
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Confirmed cases are likely to be only a small fraction of actual cases. A number of experts have put confirmed cases at 10% of actual cases. More studies needed obviously. Random antibody sampling would tell us a lot. But if these experts are right, then the fatality rate may be closer to 0.48%.

    And we would need to do far better at targeting that 0.48% number.


    510784.png


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  • #3862
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Strazdas wrote: »
    BBC reporter in Singapore speculating that warm tropical weather in the region may be one of the reasons cases and deaths are lower than Europe and the US
    It has been suggested it might be true but nobody saying that's the case yet.


  • #3863
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Strazdas wrote: »
    BBC reporter in Singapore speculating that warm tropical weather in the region may be one of the reasons cases and deaths are lower than Europe and the US

    Cases maybe but why would it affect the number of people who die after contracting it?
    I think Singapore has low deaths because most of the new cases are young migrant workers.
    I cant say Singapore has a low number of cases anymore though, for it's size it is has one of the fastest growing numbers of cases in the world for the last few days running. 10,000 new cases in the last 14 days in Singapore, there is no other country that size that has reported that many in such a short space of time


  • #3864
    blade1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,777 ✭✭✭✭blade1


    Screenshot-20200424-173417.jpg


  • #3865
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Really shows how the press coverage of young people who died has skewed many peoples perception of the risk. Every time I talk to my mother she goes on about how loads of healthy young people are dying.

    what I want to know is those who are younger and recover have any meduim or long term damage and to what level. And does the prevalent strain on a country affect this. and how those numbers would go up if no restrictions where in place.


  • #3866
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,947 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    What did Leo say today about and extra 2/3 weeks?


  • #3867
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Same nuts use bleach thinking it can cure autism etc


  • #3868
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,115 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    speckle wrote: »
    maybe he needs the next time to put it back up to a higher number so people understand its in our own hands when restrictions can start to be lifted.


    Its ironic the dopes complaining about the lockdown wrecking the economy/mental health are doing their best to make the lockdown last and make everything worse. Like hamsters on a wheel :pac:


  • #3869
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Julianna Gorgeous Hydrant wrote: »
    What did Leo say today about and extra 2/3 weeks?

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0424/1134496-covid19-coronavirus-ireland/


  • #3870
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    Julianna Gorgeous Hydrant wrote: »
    What did Leo say today about and extra 2/3 weeks?

    "People breaking the rules should bear in mind the consequences ... it could be having to extend the current lockdown for two to three weeks.

    "We want to be in a position where we can ease restrictions but that is not going to be possible if the virus begins to reproduce at a faster rate," he said.

    "I would really appeal to people [to obey the restrictions] as the next 11 days are going to be crucial.

    "I don't want to be seen as waving a big stick but common sense should prevail. It is a real worry that people are becoming more lax."

    Sounds like they’re starting to break in the idea that we’ll be extending the restrictions, using complacency as the justification...


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  • #3871
    ElTel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    Do we want them done right or done fast? I have a friend working in testing on this virus. Highly skilled, very good at her job, over a decade of experience in virus testing. It took time for her to get up to speed on the testing process for this virus (the first few weeks, she said she could barely think after getting home on work, she was so exhausted) and she is only now learning how to help analyse the results beyond saying whether they are positive or negative. People have such a simplistic idea of what testing entails and the skills required.

    Is that for the covid19 swab analysis or more to do with blood and antibodies? A "now your talking to a virology lab tech" thread would be great imo.

    Hindsight of course, but we messed up testing too widely early.

    Even now, with increased capacity I think we should still limit this test to continuous checking of health care staff and high risk groups and contact tracing of serious new cases. I hope the gardai are/get more involved in contact tracing. Some posts in this thread suggest that tracing has been poor.

    We could do some random sampling of the full population instead and perhaps test people that have shown no symptoms.


This discussion has been closed.
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